MBB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[WAlum]

I did not mean to imply there are trends or that I was presenting scientific information.  It was for discussion purposes only.

I don't think there's anything significant here. It seems to me that teams perform about what they normally do if the game is close or not. There needs to be a lot more data gathered for multiple years and multiple conferences to see if any trend happens.

[WAlum]

Its the holiday season with little business and co-workers on vacation.  With the slow day and the OAC board dead right now, I took my morning coffee break and reviewed schedules/results and determined the following:

Record starting in 2008 until today and records in games by less than 5 point or overtime.
Allegheny 28-32   10-6
Denision 19-43   5-10
Hiram 35-28   13-12
Kenyon 27-36   5-10
Oberlin 12-47    2-12
OWU 34-29   5-7
Wabash 43-21   11-3
Wittenberg  38-23   4-7
Wooster 57-13    5-3

Overall winning percentage rankings:
Wooster
Wabash
Wittenberg
Hiram
Ohio Wesleyan
Allegheny
Kenyon
Denison
Oberlin

Close game winning percentage rankings:
Wabash
Wooster
Allegheny
Ohio Wesleyan
Hiram
Wittenberg
Kenyon
Denison
Oberlin

Losing teams with winning records in close games: Allegheny
Winning teams with losing records in close games: Ohio Wesleyan, Wittenberg
"Best" close game teams: Wabash, Wooster, Allegheny
"Worst" close game teams: Oberlin, Denison, Kenyon

I did not mean to imply there are trends or that I was presenting scientific information.  It was for discussion purposes only.

I don't think there's anything significant here. It seems to me that teams perform about what they normally do if the game is close or not. There needs to be a lot more data gathered for multiple years and multiple conferences to see if any trend happens.

[woosterbooster]

Before attempting to derive anything from these numbers it's important to know that even twenty or thirty seasons of such data would be a small sample size.  I work in the sports simulation industry (Diamond Mind Baseball).  If there is one thing that we've learned since we've had the ability to run off multiple replays of complete baseball seasons, it's that anything can happen in one given replay.  Run off the 2010 MLB season 1,000 times and the cream will come to the top.  But nearly everyone will win sometimes, and the teams that win the most might not be the teams that you'd have expected to win, as sometimes the actual baseball season is the statistical outlier.

Here's what I think:

In the long run, both the very good teams and the very bad teams will be involved in a smaller number of these close games than the more middle-of-the-road teams.  Why?  Because the good teams are in more lopsided wins, the bad teams in more lopsided losses.  However, once these good teams are in these close end-game situations, because the games are close, they will not approach their actual won-lost percentage.  The reverse is true with the bad teams.

There is something to say for the better teams knowing how to win the close ones.  And, programs that traditionally struggle get a bit nervous when the final minutes approach, especially if it's against a better team.  Still, there is a lot of randomness to these tight-game endings.  Randomness can simply be equated with luck.  Sometimes that's all there is to it.  Is Ian Franks a very good player?  He sure as heck is.  But will he always make that long game-winning shot up at Allegheny simply because he's good and on a Steve Moore-coached Wooster team?  Nah.  I give him about a one-in-four chance.  Part skill, part luck.

Somebody with the requisite skills and software could probably put something together with large numbers.  But I'd bet it would come out something like this, using the same format:

Team A: 8,000-2,000  800-400
Team B: 5,000-5,000  2,000-2,000
Team C: 2,000-8,000  400-800

 

[ScotsFan]

WB, good point about the upper echelon teams and the lower echelon teams probably being involved in fewer 'close' end of game scenarios than the middle of the pack teams. 

Also, quality of opponents has a lot to do with how the numbers turn out as well as style of play. 

According to the numbers, Witt looks like it doesn't perform well in tight games, but I'm wondering who those 7 losses have come up against? 

Also, Witt has been in 11 close games and Wabash has been in 14.  Both of these programs place an emphasis on defense so they are bound to be in more close games than say a team like Wooster that has been implementing more of an up tempo offense where they try and run the opponent out of the gym.  My guess is that if you look at the close games Wooster has been in since 2008, their opponent more than likely succeeded in slowing the game down and dictated the tempo of the game.

[WAlum]

Thanks guys.  As I stated the sample size is small and I know the amount of factors that go into figuring it are astronomical.  However as I said, this question hatched out of a discussion in regards to the question, do better coaches win more close games? For arguments sake, give everyone the same personnel and the game is on the line.  What three coaches do you want coaching your team in a tie game with 3 minutes to go?

[woosterbooster]

Red Auerbach, John Wooden, and Clair Bee.

[ScotsFan]

Red Auerbach, John Wooden, and Clair Bee.

What?  No Geno???   

[woosterbooster]

Red Auerbach, John Wooden, and Clair Bee.

What?  No Geno???   

He'd be my recruiter. And popcorn salesman.

[David Collinge]

+k for Clair Bee. 

[smedindy]

I work in the sports simulation industry (Diamond Mind Baseball).  
 

I take back anything bad I said to you...I am replaying the 1971 season in Diamond Mind right now. Need to upgrade to the next version though. My version doesn't co-operate with Vista very well.

[smedindy]

Thanks guys.  As I stated the sample size is small and I know the amount of factors that go into figuring it are astronomical.  However as I said, this question hatched out of a discussion in regards to the question, do better coaches win more close games? For arguments sake, give everyone the same personnel and the game is on the line.  What three coaches do you want coaching your team in a tie game with 3 minutes to go?

Bob Knight - as long as he behaves himself
Pete Carril - the Princeton offense is built for tight, close games
Norman Dale - MY TEAM'S ON THE FLOOR!

[David Collinge]

One last game tomorrow before the Christmas holidays:

Wittenberg at Otterbein, 7:30 pm -- live stats, audio (W), audio (O)

Just a reminder (primarily to myself) that we sit at 33-25 as a conference so far.

[David Collinge]

Well, well.  Looks like Otterbein has maybe found their legs.

Otterbein 78, Wittenberg 64 -- Cameron Walton led the Tigers with 19.  I confess that will necessitate a trip to the Wittenberg roster page before I continue this.  6'2" sophomore guard.  Chris Sullivan, whose name I do recognize, was frosty cold, hitting on just 3 of 12 shots (3/10 from the arc, 9 points).  Otterbein connected on 52% of their attempts, and two-thirds of their treys (10/15), but had a minus-17 in field goal attempts.  From the floor, this was a 57-56 Witt victory, but Otterbein made twelve more free throws than Witt even attempted, with the +15 from the line accounting for the margin of victory.  (Witt had 25 fouls, including 5 from Clayton Black, vs. just 16 for the Cards.)

NCAC falls to 33-26 as we enter the holiday break.

[ste24vie]

Otterbein had a chaser in Sullivan's jersey all night.

[drt]

Where's Josh McKee?  Or did I miss something?