MBB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[bashbrother]

Thanks to all for the correction on the time!

Go Wabash!

[wooscotsfan]

Here is the Team Stats comparison for Wooster and Wabash:

Wooster 13-0  #1 Ranking
Offensive Field Goals 48.6%
Defensive Field Goals 36.8%
3 Point Shooting 41.8%
Free Throw Shooting 77.5%
Rebound Margin Per Game:  +11.4
Assists to Turnovers Ratio:  1.23
Scoring Margin Per Game:  +17.0 points

Wabash 13-0  #7 Ranking
Offensive Field Goals 45.8%
Defensive Field Goals 36.5%
3 Point Shooting 36.8%
Free Throw Shooting 72.7%
Rebound Margin Per Game:  +8.5
Assists to Turnovers Ratio:  0.93
Scoring Margin Per Game:  +15.5 points

[wooscotsfan]

Wooster Probable Starters
6'4"  Ian Franks SR  18.5 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 3.6 apg
6'7"  Justin Hallowell JR  13.5 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2.0 apg
6'1"  Nathan Balch SR  12.6 ppg, 3.5 rpg
6'1"  Matt Fegan JR  8.6 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 3.2 apg
6'5"  Bryan Wickliffe SR  8.5 ppg, 6.8 rpg

Wooster Key Reserves
6'7"  Josh Claytor SO  4.6 ppg, 3.7 rpg
6'8"  Jake Mays SO  4.2 ppg, 3.6 rpg
6'0"  Ryan Snyder FR  3.2 ppg, 1.8 rpg
6'2"  Justin Warnes JR 3.1 ppg, 2.5 rpg

Wabash Probable Starters
6'3"  Wes Smith SR  23.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg
6'2"  Aaron Zinnerman JR  8.0 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 2.6 apg
6'5"  Ben Burkett SR  7.2 ppg, 4.5 rpg
6'3"  Brian Shelbourne JR  5.2 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 4.1 apg
6'7"  Nick Curosh JR  3.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg

Wabash Key Reserves
6'5"  AJ Sutherlin JR  6.7 ppg, 2.7 rpg
6'5"  Derek Bailey JR  6.2 ppg, 3.6 rpg
6'7"  Pete Nicksic FR  5.0 ppg, 3.9 rpg
6'0"  Dominique Thomas SR 2.5 ppg

[David Collinge]

Saturday games:

Wooster at Wabash, 2pm -- video and live stats; audio (Woo)
Denison at Oberlin, 3pm -- video and live stats
Kenyon at Allegheny, ~3pm -- live stats -- Game 2 of a W/M doubleheader
Hiram at Wittenberg, ~5pm -- audio and live stats -- Game 2 of a W/M doubleheader
OWU is idle

Updated NCAC Standings with 1/5 Results:

1.  Wabash 5-0, 13-0
2.  Wooster 4-0, 13-0
2.  Wittenberg 4-0, 8-4
4.  Kenyon 2-2, 6-7
5.  Ohio Wesleyan 2-3, 6-8
6.  Hiram 1-3, 7-6
7.  Allegheny 1-4, 4-9
7.  Denison 1-4, 4-9
9.  Oberlin 0-4, 1-11

[kiltedbryan]

Here's my two cents on game previews:

Comparing offenses:
The key strength of the Scots offense, and what could make it hard for even Wabash's excellent defense to defend, is how well the Scots can spread its scoring around.  All the Scots starters average over 8 ppg; only two of Wabash's starters hit that mark.  Further, and this is just kinda ridiculous, but true: four of the Scots starters average better than 43% from distance; only AJ Sutherlin hits at that 3pt percentage for the LGs.

Wabash's offense works the other way 'round.  Not only has Wes Smith led the LGs in scoring in every game this season, and scored 1/3 of Wabash's total points this year, but also no one else on the roster seems to really be able to step up and have a dominant offensive performance with him, or instead of him.  The LGs have had only two 15+ point performances by anyone not named Wes Smith (Zinnerman once and Sutherlin once).  Contrast that with Wooster: by my count, the Scots have had thirteen 15+ point performances by players not named Ian Franks.

Wooster also has the statistical advantage at the free throw line, averaging a very good 77%, but Wabash is no slouch at 72%.

Comparing defenses:
Both of these defenses are very, very good.  This game could easily have a final score like 52-50.  I have less to say on this side of the ball, other than the key to me seems to be "who can do a better job of using its defensive strengths best?"  For both teams this means trying to contest enough shots to keep shooting percentages below 40%.  For Wooster in particular, winning with its defensive strength means controlling the glass.  Wabash's great strength is defending the 3—there is an 16% gap between what 'Bash typically allows (26%) and what Wooster typically makes (42%).  Which number Wooster is closer to tomorrow will say a lot about the Scots' chances.

[wooscotsfan]

Massey ratings have Wooster ranked #6 and Wabash #7 among Division III teams.

Here is the link: http://www.masseyratings.com

If you double click on Wooster, their schedule pops up and you can see that Massey only gives Wooster a 41% chance of winning tomorrow's game (Wabash home court).  Massey's predicted score is:  Wabash 63  Wooster 60

[kiltedbryan]

Massey ratings have Wooster ranked #6 and Wabash #7 among Division III teams.

Here is the link: http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cb&yr=2011&sub=NCAA III&mid=1

If you double click on Wooster, their schedule pops up and you can see that Massey only gives Wooster a 41% chance of winning tomorrow's game (Wabash home court).  Massey's predicted score is:  Wabash 63  Wooster 60

Part of that is that Massey ranks Wabash as particularly good at home.  The LGs have a +3.74 point "home advantage" stat, good for 26th in all of DIII.  (Wooster, by comparison, has a +3.00 advantage, good for 117th).

We had that brief debate over the toughest place to play...Massey seems to suggest that Wabash might be on that list...

[David Collinge]

Elsewhere...

Hiram's surprising loss to Kenyon makes tomorrow's game at Wittenberg almost as huge as that other game.  Wittenberg needs the win to keep pace with the Wab/Woo winner, while Hiram needs the win to maintain any shot at a top-3 finish.  Witt is riding a four-game win streak, while Hiram has lost their past two games, both of them winnable.

If Kenyon can pull off the road win in Meadville, the Lords suddenly become an unexpected player for that #4 seed.  I wish I'd kept the poll results; I just remember that Kenyon was down with Oberlin and Denison and not up with Hiram and OWU in that election.

Gheny and Denison (and, well, Oberlin too) need every win they can get at this point in the campaign.

[wooscotsfan]

Here's my two cents on game previews:

Comparing offenses:
The key strength of the Scots offense, and what could make it hard for even Wabash's excellent defense to defend, is how well the Scots can spread its scoring around.  All the Scots starters average over 8 ppg; only two of Wabash's starters hit that mark.  Further, and this is just kinda ridiculous, but true: four of the Scots starters average better than 43% from distance; only AJ Sutherlin hits at that 3pt percentage for the LGs.

Wabash's offense works the other way 'round.  Not only has Wes Smith led the LGs in scoring in every game this season, and scored 1/3 of Wabash's total points this year, but also no one else on the roster seems to really be able to step up and have a dominant offensive performance with him, or instead of him.  The LGs have had only two 15+ point performances by anyone not named Wes Smith (Zinnerman once and Sutherlin once).  Contrast that with Wooster: by my count, the Scots have had thirteen 15+ point performances by players not named Ian Franks.

kiltedbryan - great point about Wooster's scoring balance.  Let's hope that is the difference factor tomorrow!

[wooscotsfan]

If Kenyon can pull off the road win in Meadville, the Lords suddenly become an unexpected player for that #4 seed.  I wish I'd kept the poll results; I just remember that Kenyon was down with Oberlin and Denison and not up with Hiram and OWU in that election.

David - your wish is granted! 

Wooster was picked 1st in the NCAC preseason coaches poll released today.  The Scots garnered 8 of the 9 first place votes and Wittenberg picked up the remaining first place vote.

Here is the full list:

1. Wooster (8)      80 points
2. Wittenberg (1)  70 pts
3. Ohio Wesleyan  56 pts
4. Wabash           55 pts
5. Hiram              48 pts
6. Denison           37 pts
7. Allegheny        27 pts
8. Kenyon           18 pts
9. Oberlin            14 pts

Here is the link to the release: http://www2.northcoast.org/basketball/poll2010

[kiltedbryan]

Here's my two cents on game previews:

Comparing offenses:
The key strength of the Scots offense, and what could make it hard for even Wabash's excellent defense to defend, is how well the Scots can spread its scoring around.  All the Scots starters average over 8 ppg; only two of Wabash's starters hit that mark.  Further, and this is just kinda ridiculous, but true: four of the Scots starters average better than 43% from distance; only AJ Sutherlin hits at that 3pt percentage for the LGs.

Wabash's offense works the other way 'round.  Not only has Wes Smith led the LGs in scoring in every game this season, and scored 1/3 of Wabash's total points this year, but also no one else on the roster seems to really be able to step up and have a dominant offensive performance with him, or instead of him.  The LGs have had only two 15+ point performances by anyone not named Wes Smith (Zinnerman once and Sutherlin once).  Contrast that with Wooster: by my count, the Scots have had thirteen 15+ point performances by players not named Ian Franks.

kiltedbryan - great point about Wooster's scoring balance.  Let's hope that is the difference factor tomorrow!

A few other random data points.  Smith has scored 15+ in all 13 games (his season low is 15); Franks has done it in 10 (but his season low is 7).  Hallowell comes into tomorrow with an 8-game streak of scoring in double figures.

Wooster has yet to put at least three in double figures in every game so far this season; I could  see that streak ending tomorrow if the 50-60 point game comes to pass.

[WooHoopsntrack01]

Huuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge game for the Scots manana!  Here's to a great basketball game filled with feisty play right down to the very end.  The cool part about this game is that it is an awesome precursor to next year as well when DePauw enters into the fray. First really big NCAC test for the SCOTS. 

Getterdone Men!!!

[woosterbooster]

While Wooster doesn't live or die with the three, it's an important part of their offense.  This is no secret; it can easily be discerned from either the numbers or by watching them in action.  Some opponents are simply not athletically equipped to take this away from the Scots.  Others who are, or might be, are not willing to pay the price: giving up a certain number of easier inside baskets either on post-ups, penetration, give-and-go's, and back-doors.

I've not seen Wabash play this season.  But given their defensive numbers, especially the opponents' three-point percentage, it certainly seems that they are capable of, and have chosen to, tightly guard the three in most or all of their games.  There's no reason to believe that, tomorrow, they will choose to do otherwise.  Likely, given Wooster's skill set, they will make a concerted effort to do so.  As mentioned above, I believe this is in their best interest, and that it will make it hard on the Scots, doubly so on the road, where hitting from the outside is essential for any team.

One way that Wooster can counter this is to play solid defense themselves (which they likely will) and own their defensive board which will allow them to run.  They've improved their fast break since last season, and even earlier this year.  Getting early offense numbers, if they're able, will allow them the open threes that they need.  An open court game is probably in their best interests.

Because I believe Wooster will get fewer looks at threes than in most games, the match-up between Wes Smith and Ian Franks becomes crucial. Smith is the toughest, and most unique, defender that Franks will encounter all year.  It's not new, we've seen it before.  Franks, with his quick first step, will sometimes beat him off the dribble and even gain a step advantage.  The problem is that against Smith a step is often not enough.  He can recover so quickly and make blocks from behind.  So much depends on whether Franks can draw some fouls and force Smith to the bench.  This, too, has happened before, but it is, of course, a chancy proposition.

I don't think either team will turn the ball over a lot, but shooting percentages will be low.  Neither team will get as many clean open looks at the basket as they generally do.  Whichever ball club makes the most contested shots will win.  I give the Scots a little better than Massey's 41% chance, but still figure Wabash has a slight edge on their home floor.



 

[smedindy]

I wish so much I could get there. I expect an almost Danny game crowd in there.

But I also implore everyone to be polite and gentile...

...wait...I thought I was talking to my kids for a moment (ages 9 and 5 1/2 - both girls - and very strong and elusive).

[David Collinge]

If Kenyon can pull off the road win in Meadville, the Lords suddenly become an unexpected player for that #4 seed.  I wish I'd kept the poll results; I just remember that Kenyon was down with Oberlin and Denison and not up with Hiram and OWU in that election.

David - your wish is granted!  

Ha!  Thanks, but I meant the top-of-this-page poll, the one asking which non-W had the best chance to finish in the top 4.  Hiram ran away with the voting.

But I also implore everyone to be polite and gentile...

Oy vey!

Well, I wish good games and safe travels to everyone today, and gentlemanly behavior as well.  I'm off to work and will miss all but perhaps the second half of Witt/Hiram.