MBB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[ohiofan1954]

Great to see two ncac teams make it in.  I guess that Denison game might have been a deciding factor for Wabash.  Too bad would have loved too see three in. Just wondering is there a place I can post pictures from the wooster - wittenberg game saturday night? I take  pictures every where I go and I took about 30 saturday.


david

[wally_wabash]

Great to see two ncac teams make it in.  I guess that Denison game might have been a deciding factor for Wabash.  Too bad would have loved too see three in. Just wondering is there a place I can post pictures from the wooster - wittenberg game saturday night? I take  pictures every where I go and I took about 30 saturday.


david

Denison, the 1 pointer to Wooster, the 1 pointer to Witt, or the 2 pointer to Witt...any of those games going the other way has Wabash in the tournament.  Just one too many near misses for the LGs. 

[ScotsFan]

Great to see two ncac teams make it in.  I guess that Denison game might have been a deciding factor for Wabash.  Too bad would have loved too see three in. Just wondering is there a place I can post pictures from the wooster - wittenberg game saturday night? I take  pictures every where I go and I took about 30 saturday.


david

Denison, the 1 pointer to Wooster, the 1 pointer to Witt, or the 2 pointer to Witt...any of those games going the other way has Wabash in the tournament.  Just one too many near misses for the LGs.  

Yes, but ultimately, Denison was a game teams on the bubble can't afford to lose.  And unfortunately for Wabash, the team they were competitng for out of the NCAC for that C bid beat them 2 out of 3 times.  

[wally_wabash]

Great to see two ncac teams make it in.  I guess that Denison game might have been a deciding factor for Wabash.  Too bad would have loved too see three in. Just wondering is there a place I can post pictures from the wooster - wittenberg game saturday night? I take  pictures every where I go and I took about 30 saturday.


david

Denison, the 1 pointer to Wooster, the 1 pointer to Witt, or the 2 pointer to Witt...any of those games going the other way has Wabash in the tournament.  Just one too many near misses for the LGs.  

Yes, but ultimately, Denison was a game teams on the bubble can't afford to lose.  And unfortunately for Wabash, the team they were competitng for out of the NCAC for that C bid beat them 2 out of 3 times.  

They weren't competing against just Wittenberg for a spot.  Wittenberg was rightly placed ahead of Wabash per the criteria.  What I'm curious about is IWU vs. Wabash based on the criteria.  

And losing to Denison is what gets you on the bubble in the first place.  You aren't on the bubble unless you've lost a game or two that you shouldn't have.  Every team left toward the end of the process has a bad loss or two. 

[GoRed]

I don't quite understand it either, Wally.  The loss to Denison was on their home court and admittedly it was a lucky buzzer beater.  The other three losses were to ranked teams that made the tournament and were just by a handful of points total.

IWU lost eight total.  One was to University of Chicago by eight, a team with a record almost as bad as Denison that Denison beat.  North Park is no great team, and Augustana pounded IWU in their last outing. 

I think the tournament is worse off for not having three NCAC teams in it.  Wabash should be in it too in my opinion.

[David Collinge]

I would be curious to see a résumé comparison of IWU and Wabash.  I'd like to know what IWU has that trumps Wabash's better regional win percentage and 4 wins vs. RR'd teams.

Imported from the Pool C board, with emphasis added:

So assuming IWU was team #18, the final data for the final group at the table was...

(In-region winning %/In-region SOS/Record vs ranked teams)

* Illinois Wesleyan (MW): .692/.543/2-2
* St. Joseph's LI (Atl): .769/.504/3-4
* Stevens (E): .731/.512/2-2
* Wabash (GL): .760/.499/4-3
* Leb Valley (Mid Atl): .720/.509/2-3
* Eastern Conn (NE): .680/.526/1-6
* Ferrum (S): .800/.471/1-3
* Carleton (W): .750/.528/5-4


It looks like the national committee used SOS in determining #18.

That difference in SOS is enormous, and seemingly decisive.

[wally_wabash]

I would be curious to see a résumé comparison of IWU and Wabash.  I'd like to know what IWU has that trumps Wabash's better regional win percentage and 4 wins vs. RR'd teams.

Imported from the Pool C board, with emphasis added:

So assuming IWU was team #18, the final data for the final group at the table was...

(In-region winning %/In-region SOS/Record vs ranked teams)

* Illinois Wesleyan (MW): .692/.543/2-2
* St. Joseph's LI (Atl): .769/.504/3-4
* Stevens (E): .731/.512/2-2
* Wabash (GL): .760/.499/4-3
* Leb Valley (Mid Atl): .720/.509/2-3
* Eastern Conn (NE): .680/.526/1-6
* Ferrum (S): .800/.471/1-3
* Carleton (W): .750/.528/5-4


It looks like the national committee used SOS in determining #18.

That difference in SOS is enormous, and seemingly decisive.

Also enormous is the difference in win percentage and quality wins.  PSU-B was selected despite a weak SOS.  This is where the process is flawed.  The national committee should be ranking teams independent of the regional committees, because based on this decision, PSU-B would not have been nearly as high on the list as they were. 

[David Collinge]

The difference between WPs of .692 and .760 is not nearly as big as between SOSs of .543 and .499.  KnightSlappy does a better job of explaining this than I do (and he has the data at his fingertips, while mine is tucked away in a faulty memory), but to simplify things, WPs essentially range from .000 to 1.000, or in the real world to about .960 (24-1).  Both .760 and .692 are at the upper end of that scale, in the top quartile at least.  It's the high WP that gets you into the conversation in the first place.  SOSs range basically from above .400 to below .600.  .499 is below the median, while .543 is very near the top.  IWU played a much tougher schedule than Wabash, at least according to the way the NCAA evaluates things. 

I don't think IWU should have gotten a bid, either, but I can see why they got selected over Wabash (which was your original question, before Behrend somehow got into the mix.)  If anyone on that list got screwed, it was Carleton.  St. Joe's also has a stronger argument than Wabash based on the numbers.

[wally_wabash]

I was simply using PSU-B as an example of how the SOS trumps everything else argument doesn't hold a ton of water.  Based on the list provided here, I would select in order: Carleton, Wabash (I prefer the extra win over the slight SOS advantage over St. Josephs), St. Josephs, and then IWU. 

What's exposed here is that the regional committees are applying the criteria in a different manner than the national committee.  Which by itself isn't a problem until the national committee starts using those regional lists to prioritize the teams available for selection.  Once that happens, the order by which the national committee should be picking teams based on the way that national committee chooses to apply the criteria is compromised.  That's all. 

I also think it's a cop out by the committees (all of them) to view a result over one regionally ranked team exactly the same as another.  Wabash's wins over Wooster and Randolph Macon should carry more weight than their wins against Witt or Hanover or any of the wins that IWU has. 

[djabs7]

I figured I'd post this here so Wooster fans can see it, because I don't know how many Witt fans will want to. Highlights from Saturday's NCAC championship:

http://bcove.me/67t09yjg

Another video: Chris Sullivan's record night, a compilation of 3-pointers.

http://bcove.me/adpyuzcs

[Mr. Ypsi]

I was simply using PSU-B as an example of how the SOS trumps everything else argument doesn't hold a ton of water.  Based on the list provided here, I would select in order: Carleton, Wabash (I prefer the extra win over the slight SOS advantage over St. Josephs), St. Josephs, and then IWU. 

What's exposed here is that the regional committees are applying the criteria in a different manner than the national committee.  Which by itself isn't a problem until the national committee starts using those regional lists to prioritize the teams available for selection.  Once that happens, the order by which the national committee should be picking teams based on the way that national committee chooses to apply the criteria is compromised.  That's all. 

I also think it's a cop out by the committees (all of them) to view a result over one regionally ranked team exactly the same as another.  Wabash's wins over Wooster and Randolph Macon should carry more weight than their wins against Witt or Hanover or any of the wins that IWU has. 

I can agree with this 'subjectivity' ONLY if you can agree there should be a premium (not huge, but somewhat) on WHEN a game is played.  The NCC team that IWU went 2-1 against in 2011 (when they went 11-4 and took first seed in the CCIW tourney) was NOT the 4-7 NCC team of 2010 that kept them from ever being regionally ranked!

And BTW, "any of the wins that IWU has" would include beating Augie.

[David Collinge]

Wow, thanks David!  That Woo/Witt highlight video is terrific; in fact, both are.  Wooster should give you a contract to do the live video for all their games.

[wally_wabash]

I was simply using PSU-B as an example of how the SOS trumps everything else argument doesn't hold a ton of water.  Based on the list provided here, I would select in order: Carleton, Wabash (I prefer the extra win over the slight SOS advantage over St. Josephs), St. Josephs, and then IWU. 

What's exposed here is that the regional committees are applying the criteria in a different manner than the national committee.  Which by itself isn't a problem until the national committee starts using those regional lists to prioritize the teams available for selection.  Once that happens, the order by which the national committee should be picking teams based on the way that national committee chooses to apply the criteria is compromised.  That's all. 

I also think it's a cop out by the committees (all of them) to view a result over one regionally ranked team exactly the same as another.  Wabash's wins over Wooster and Randolph Macon should carry more weight than their wins against Witt or Hanover or any of the wins that IWU has. 

I can agree with this 'subjectivity' ONLY if you can agree there should be a premium (not huge, but somewhat) on WHEN a game is played.  The NCC team that IWU went 2-1 against in 2011 (when they went 11-4 and took first seed in the CCIW tourney) was NOT the 4-7 NCC team of 2010 that kept them from ever being regionally ranked!

And BTW, "any of the wins that IWU has" would include beating Augie.

Ah, my fault there.  I missed the Augustana win during my glance at the schedule. 

As for North Central, I mean 15-11 is 15-11.  There's only so much anybody can do to polish that record up.  Maybe the best 15-11 team ever...but 15-11 still. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

I was simply using PSU-B as an example of how the SOS trumps everything else argument doesn't hold a ton of water.  Based on the list provided here, I would select in order: Carleton, Wabash (I prefer the extra win over the slight SOS advantage over St. Josephs), St. Josephs, and then IWU. 

What's exposed here is that the regional committees are applying the criteria in a different manner than the national committee.  Which by itself isn't a problem until the national committee starts using those regional lists to prioritize the teams available for selection.  Once that happens, the order by which the national committee should be picking teams based on the way that national committee chooses to apply the criteria is compromised.  That's all. 

I also think it's a cop out by the committees (all of them) to view a result over one regionally ranked team exactly the same as another.  Wabash's wins over Wooster and Randolph Macon should carry more weight than their wins against Witt or Hanover or any of the wins that IWU has. 

I can agree with this 'subjectivity' ONLY if you can agree there should be a premium (not huge, but somewhat) on WHEN a game is played.  The NCC team that IWU went 2-1 against in 2011 (when they went 11-4 and took first seed in the CCIW tourney) was NOT the 4-7 NCC team of 2010 that kept them from ever being regionally ranked!

And BTW, "any of the wins that IWU has" would include beating Augie.

Ah, my fault there.  I missed the Augustana win during my glance at the schedule. 

As for North Central, I mean 15-11 is 15-11.  There's only so much anybody can do to polish that record up.  Maybe the best 15-11 team ever...but 15-11 still. 

In one sense I would agree with you.  But when a team starts 3 frosh and a soph, I assume you can understand that their 2nd half might be radically different from their first half.

My contention is that IWU might have an additional 2-1 record against regionally-ranked teams if later results counted more than earlier results.  At this point NCC is better than some of the ranked teams.  But they don't factor in time of the year, so it is what it is.

[smedindy]

The issue here is that while D-3 is promoting in-region games, it leaves teams like EMU, Carleton and Wabash on the table and takes a PSU - Behrend.

Not to say that any of those three would win the Walnut & Bronze, but at least they should have a chance. Two of those three were in the Top 15 most of the season.