MBB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[ScotsFan]

Yes  -I forgot about that game - I wasn't there that night. it's not in the list of 17 becuase Wooster ended up winning by 10 in OT.

A ten-point overtime win is a closer game than a one-point win in regulation.

Agree - I should have included that game.  But even more to your point - I conveniently picked <10 point difference because there are many games in the 10-12 point difference and the "story" wouldn't have sounded as good. It is no different than a baseball analyst saying a batter is "3 for his last 15", which means he is also "4 for his last 16". Selectively picking statistics happens everywhere.

Not sure how 3 last 15 means he is also 4of last 16 but it could mean he is 3 for his last 100.

Because if the hitter was 3 for his last 16 (or certainly 3 for his last 100), that's the stat that they would mention.

Speaking of MLB, my favorite thing I hear the Indians' announcers is throw out some stat in Sept. when the Indians are 20 games under .500 and 15 games out of first, but just happen to be playing good ball at the moment, they always throw out some arbitrary date and say the Indians are one of the best teams in baseball since August 3rd or something like that?!  I'm always like, too bad the season started in freaking April.  Who gives a rat's ass what the Indians' record is since August or whatever???   

[woosterbooster]

Speaking of MLB, my favorite thing I hear the Indians' announcers is throw out some stat in Sept. when the Indians are 20 games under .500 and 15 games out of first, but just happen to be playing good ball at the moment, they always throw out some arbitrary date and say the Indians are one of the best teams in baseball since August 3rd or something like that?!  I'm always like, too bad the season started in freaking April.  Who gives a rat's ass what the Indians' record is since August or whatever???   

Who cares what the Indians' record is, ever?  That's minor league baseball.  It's a Giants' world, baby, and we're gonna pick up three in a row this year!

[smedindy]

Well, here we go. The finale of the season, and things are still, well, up in the air. Not #1, nor #2, nor #10. But #3 to #9 could all swap places.

The tiebreakers? As we know them:

1. Head-to-Head competition (NCAC contests only – no restrictions regarding number of games and sites).
2. Combined win-loss record with all teams above tied teams (restricted to "like" games – any team played twice; and single games played at the same location, either home or away).
3. Record versus individual opponents examined in descending order of standings (restricted to "like" games – any team played twice; and single games played at the same location, either home or away).
4. Coin toss.

CAVEAT: I MAY NOT GET THE CALCULATIONS RIGHT! Please correct me if I don't!

Let's get to it:

Oberlin (5-10, 7-17) @ Wabash (6-9, 8-16) - Not long ago, it was conceivable that these teams could be looking outside of the tourney looking in, but here they are. Wabash is in, and a win edges them toward the #6 seed which should be theirs with a win and a Denison loss. The Yeomen seemingly have the last slot salted away as even if they win over Wabash the LG's have the tiebreaker advantage UNLESS Hiram wins as well (see below for correction). Thanks to playing Hiram and Gheny just once Wabash has amassed a lot of results against teams higher than them in the pecking order. But the only way Oberlin loses #8 is if they lose and Hiram beats Wittenberg.

Wooster (14-1, 21-3) @ DePauw (8-7, 15-9) - The Scots really don't NEED this game, except to protect a good seed in the NCAA tourney. But they're not going to roll over for the New Tigers. A DPU win keeps them in the hunt for #3. They have the tiebreaker with Witt, lose the tiebreaker to Kenyon, and would be 4th in a three-way tiebreaker with Witt and Kenyon. (Advantage Kenyon for only playing Witt once this season). DPU could benefit from the four way tie nightmare since they'd have the best H2H against the other three (4-2 vs. Kenyon's 3-2 vs. Witt 2-2 vs. Denison 1-4).  So they could win for losing! How about that!

Ohio Wesleyan (11-4, 18-5) @ Denison (7-8, 9-15) - The Bishops are locked into #2, but need to avoid a bad loss to keep their "C" hopes alive. That's incentive enough. As for the Big Red, I think they're pretty much stuck at sixth with a win (the tiebreakers don't look good since they were swept by DPU and even with a split vs. the Lords they will lose out to Kenyon on tiebreaker #2 or #3, depending) and depending on Wabash / Oberlin could be 7th with a loss.

Allegheny (3-12, 9-15) @ Kenyon (8-7, 14-10) - The Gators could jam the Lords out of any chance of third with a loss and if DPU beats Wooster could move them down to fifth. But Kenyon's sweep of DePauw and the fact they only played the Old Tigers once helps them in a tiebreaker with those teams. But if Witt and Kenyon are tied solo with DPU out of the picture, then Witt has the tiebreaker thanks to their one win and so the Lords move to 4th. Kenyon's going to root for the New Tigers, for sure!

Wittenberg (8-7, 15-9) @ Hiram (5-10, 11-13) - By the time this tips, Hiram will know if they have any chance to make the tourney. If Oberlin wins, they're cooked. CORRECTION: A three way possibility at 6-10 can put Hiram in the tourney, so all is not lost if Oberlin beats Wabash. If the LG's beat the Yeomen, the Terriers have a chance to play Tuesday by beating the Old Tigers. For Witt, they want Wooster to beat DPU so they have a solo tiebreaker with Kenyon for third. A loss could secure them in 5th as they'd lose a solo tiebreaker with DPU and a three-way 8-8 tiebreaker with Denison and DPU.

Corrections, please!

[smedindy]

So, to boil this down:

1- Wooster
2- OWU
3 - Kenyon, Witt, DPU
4 - Kenyon, Witt, DPU
5 - Kenyon, Witt, DPU
6 - Denison, Wabash
7 - Denison, Wabash, Oberlin
8 - Oberlin, Hiram

Fixed to show that Oberlin could get the #7 seed in the case of a three-way tie with Wabash and Hiram. Corrections, of course, welcome.

[smedindy]

I failed to account for a possible three way 6-10 tie between Wabash, Hiram and Oberlin. Yikes!

I think then Oberlin could get 7th as they'll be 3-1 vs. Wabash and Hiram. Wabash then would be at the mercy of H2H vs. the Terriers. Oops. LGs go home if they lose and Hiram upsets Witt.

[goscots]

I failed to account for a possible three way 6-10 tie between Wabash, Hiram and Oberlin. Yikes!

I think then Oberlin could get 7th as they'll be 3-1 vs. Wabash and Hiram. Wabash then would be at the mercy of H2H vs. the Terriers. Oops. LGs go home if they lose and Hiram upsets Witt.

Thanks for the season long game previews. I have enjoyes reading them. I know how long it takes to put them together. If I had a vote I'd give you a +k.

[Mr. Ypsi]

As that was your 200th post; you now DO have a vote on karma!

(Just hit 'applaud' under smedindy's name on any of his posts.)

(And if he later pisses you off, the 'smite' button is right next to it! )

[ScotsFan]

(And if he later pisses you off, the 'smite' button is right next to it! )

Be wary of pissing off the folks from the all boys school in Indiana that wear striped overalls and yamakas or you'll end up with a karma count that looks like mine... 

[smedindy]

Well, I don't smite....

Thanks for the kind words, goscots!

[Mr. Ypsi]

I was not recommending any particular course of action - just informing a newly karma-empowered poster how the system works.  How he chooses to use it is his business.

I'm with smedindy - I can't say I NEVER smite, but it is extremely rare compared to my use of 'applaud'.

[smedindy]

Oberlin leading Wabash 34-28 with 13 1/2 minutes to go. Uh-oh!

[smedindy]

Ross Sponsler with a big three with five seconds left. Oberlin and Wabash tied at 51 going to OT!

[smedindy]

Wabash Always Fights! The LG's downed Oberlin 64-57 in OT.

Wabash is now 7-9 and if Denison loses, I believe Wabash will be #6 seed.

They split H2H, so it goes to tiebreaker #2, record against team above in like games (so for this we look at Wooster road games and Witt home games, since Denison played those teams just once...)

Denison's record against Wooster, Witt, OWU, DPU and Kenyon would be 1-7
Wabash record against those teams (with Wooster road only and Witt home only) - 2-6

Oberlin now 5-11. If Hiram wins, they're out. If Hiram loses, they're in since they swept the Terriers.

[GoRed]

Big Red are up 26-20 on OWU with 3 minutes left in the 1st half on poor 28% shooting by the Bishops and great defense by Denison. 

[GoRed]

Halftime score at Livingston: 30-24 in favor of the Big Red.  Denison shooting 6-15 from beyond the arc while OWU is 2-10 from three point range and 8-28 overall.  OWU with a 23-18 rebound advantage.

No one in double figures on either side.  Winters high for OWU with 6 points.  Weingart with 8 for Denison two treys. 

If Denison had this much energy against Kenyon on Wednesday, they would be looking at a 4 or 5 seed rather than hoping to hang on to the 6 slot.  How they come out at the half is always a crapshoot, but this could be an interesting second half.