MBB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[wooscotsfan]

At the Half:  Wooster 34  Ohio Wesleyan 27

Wooster is being led by Doug Thorpe with 14 points.

[David Collinge]

Wittenberg turns on the second-half jets and wins 70-50.

[wooscotsfan]

Final:  Ohio Wesleyan 62  Wooster 60

Congratulations to Ohio Wesleyan on a huge road win.

When will Wooster learn how to run an offensive set against a zone defense??     Wooster scored only 3 points in the last 6 minutes of the game!

Wooster is now 15-3, 9-2 NCAC.  Four way tie for the NCAC lead as OWU, Witt and DePauw are also 9-2

[David Collinge]

Very nice comeback from down 10 midway through the second half for the Bishops. Now we enjoy a 4-way tie for the conference lead, all at 9-2.

[GoRed]

This season is suddenly so much more interesting . . .

[kiltedbryan]

This season is suddenly so much more interesting . . .

We definitely have a barn burner of a title race on our hands.

We've also got quite the NCAA tournament chase on our hands, too. I have to imagine that someone from Wooster, Wittenberg, DePauw and Ohio Wesleyan will be on the outside looking in come March 3rd - I could see the NCAC being a 3-bid league this year but 4 seems like a stretch. Right now Wittenberg has the weakest position - see KnightSlappy's rankings on the Great Lakes boards - and the other three look to be in decent shape. But you aren't going to want to be one of the two teams losing the presumptive NCAC tournament semifinal games between these four...

Lots of basketball to play yet. Should be fun.

[woosterbooster]

The Wooster teams have officially reached the half-cycle point.  Fifteen years ago, their strengths were always inside.  Scoring, rebounding, defense.  They always had post men, good ones, and even some of the freshmen that came in contributed strongly in their first years.

That's no longer the case.  They now have two premier guards and several solid backups.  The three and four spots are handled capably.  But post play has become a real problem.

Offensively, the bigs have little to offer against quality opposition.  Fanelly doesn't yet have an offensive game.  His points come in transition or off stick-backs.  Kipfer can bull his way to the hoop, but that only works if the guy guarding him is smaller, which isn't always the case.  Opponents don't need to double down, which means that against a zone, Wooster's perimeter players find it hard to get open.  Most outside shots are contested.

Defensively, Fanelly just isn't big or strong enough.  That may come in a year or two, but it's not there now.  Kipfer is stronger, but doesn't have the foot speed.

DePauw, Wittenberg, and OWU each have a post that Wooster has been nearly unable to stop.

I can't find his name on the internet.  So, I don't know how to spell it.  But Dan Haviland (sp) needs to retire.  His lack of understanding and ridiculous home-team bias is an embarrassment to the college.  His new color man (and I can't remember his name) has to continually correct and set him straight.  Give this guy a chance to be the lead man, or to work with John Finn.  Either way would be a spectacular improvement.

[fantastic50]

Some thoughts on the regular-season title race, taking a number-cruncher's point-of-view...

If we look only at head-to-head games among the top four (as if they win out against the other six), here are the standings:
WOO 3-2 (vs WIT left)
OWU 2-2 (vs WIT, vs DPU)
DPU 2-2 (at WIT, at OWU)
WIT 1-2 (at OWU, vs DPU, at WOO)

The remaining schedule looks easiest for WOO & OWU. Aggregate net score (WOO +25, OWU +3, DPU +3, WIT -31) favors WOO, but the Scots' two recent losses certainly don't.

Remaining big games:
WIT @ OWU (Feb. 5)
DPU @ WIT (Feb. 12)
WIT @ WOO (Feb. 15)
DPU @ OWU (Feb. 22)

The perhaps-unbreakable four-way tie occurs if those big games are won by OWU, WIT, WIT, and DPU, respectively, and all four continue to win against the other teams.  Every team would be 3-3, having split against each of the other top teams.  Unless there is something about away record in the tiebreakers, this one might come down to a draw for the top four conference tournament seeds.

If no major upset occurs, the most likely scenario is that the home teams win each of the big games, leading to this situation...
1&2) OWU & WOO 14-2 (split, 3-1 vs DPU & WIT), 3&4) WIT & DPU 12-4 (split, 1-3 vs OWU & WOO)

Other fairly likely possibilities (home teams win all but one of the big games) include
(WIT wins at OWU) 1) WOO 16-2, 2) WIT 15-3 (sweep of OWU), 3)OWU 15-3, 4) DPU 14-4
(DPU wins at WIT) 1) OWU 16-2 (sweep of DPU), 2) WOO 16-2 (split with DPU), 3) DPU 15-3, 4) WIT 13-5
(WIT wins at OWU) 1) OWU 16-2, 2&3) WIT & WOO 15-3 (split with all), 4) DPU 14-4
(DPU wins at OWU) 1) WOO 16-2, 2&3) DPU & OWU 15-3 (split with all), 4) WIT 14-4

Less likely (2 home teams win) possibilities include WIT winning the league outright, a WOO/DPU tie for first, and the four-way tie.

The tournament seems unlikely to be played in Greencastle, as the New Tigers have a pair of tough road games remaining, and won't have a sweep of either OWU or Wooster to help in the tiebreakers.  They likely need to win both at Witt and OWU, and ideally also a Witt win at Wooster.

All of that being said, it's still likely that one of the top four will lose a game to one of the other six.  There are 20 such games left, and even if you give the top teams a 95% chance of winning a particular game, the chance that they run the table is only about one-in-three.  Winning at Denison, Kenyon, Hiram, or Wabash isn't that easy, and Wooster got a scare at home from Allegheny last week.

Based on KnightSlappy's numbers, I think that OWU, Woo, and Depauw are all in pretty good shape to make the national tournament.  The only way I see all four going is if Witt wins the conference tournament after struggling down the stretch (so that the others are all in good position for Pool C berths.)

[smedindy]

Getting four into the tournament is going to be tough. The ODAC got that number in a few years ago but their middle pack teams were of greater quality and distinction than the NCAC's current bunch.

[GoRed]

Well, it is getting even more interesting this afternoon.  The Big Red take down the Tigers by three 63-60 and the Yeomen pull the big upset over the New Tigers in Oberlin!

[sac]

Well, it is getting even more interesting this afternoon.  The Big Red take down the Tigers by three 63-60 and the Yeomen pull the big upset over the New Tigers in Oberlin!

February basketball

[David Collinge]

I don't know what it is about Denison, but they certainly seem to have Wittenberg's number.

Denison 63, Wittenberg 60
Oberlin 62, DePauw 60
Wooster 75, Wabash 68
OWU 88, Hiram 61
Kenyon 61, Allegheny 53 (OT)

1. Wooster 10-2
1. OWU 10-2
3. DPU 9-3
3. Witt 9-3
5. Kenyon 6-5
6. Denison 5-7
7. Wabash 4-8
8. Hiram 3-8
9. Oberlin 3-9
10 Allegheny 0-12

Only "Big Four" game this week is Witt at OWU, Wednesday.

[woosterbooster]

Dan Fanelly played all of six minutes for Wooster.  No fouls, so I'm suspecting that he got hurt.  Anybody who watched the game know anything about this?  The Scots are thin enough in the post already.

[kiltedbryan]

Dan Fanelly played all of six minutes for Wooster.  No fouls, so I'm suspecting that he got hurt.  Anybody who watched the game know anything about this?  The Scots are thin enough in the post already.

Steve Moore described it as a bump or bruise in his postgame interview. He said that Fanelly first bumped the knee in practice yesterday, then it got hit again early in the game today. Moore said the training staff evaluation indicated there were no ligament or tendon concerns, just a bruise, but it was causing Fanelly enough discomfort that it didn't make sense to push it today. Sounds like it'll be a day-to-day thing with Dan in the coming week.

[wooscotsfan]

Dan Fanelly played all of six minutes for Wooster.  No fouls, so I'm suspecting that he got hurt.  Anybody who watched the game know anything about this?  The Scots are thin enough in the post already.

I saw Wooster play a very average game this afternoon.  Scots led by 13 points at halftime but then allowed the Little Giants to come all the way back take a 3 point lead (57 to 54) with only 6 minutes left in the game.  Evan Pannell then nailed consecutive three pointers on the next two possessions to give a Wooster a 60-57 lead that they stretched out to the final margin of 7 points.  Wabash played tough all afternoon and Wooster only played well in spurts which leads me to believe that these Scots are not capable of a deep run in the NCAA tournament this year (I hope that I am wrong ).

As Wooster Booster noted, Dan Fanelly played only 6 minutes because he appeared to bump/bruise his left knee.  He limped off the court and was rubbing his knee on the bench midway through the first half.   Fanelly did sit on the bench during the second half but he never played another minute in the game.  Hopefully, he will be able to play in upcoming games or Wooster will have significant issues in the post.  Josh Kipfer played virtually all of the second half because Kenny DeBoer also got into foul trouble and had to sit out an extended period.  Zach McCorkle played ~3 minutes in the second half to give Kipfer a chance to rehydrate and catch his breath before returning to the floor.

Two huge upsets by Oberlin and Denison today so Wooster and Ohio Wesleyan clearly have a big edge in the conference race with only home games left against the other top teams (Wooster has 1, OWU has 2).