MBB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[David Collinge]

At the end of January, assuming I counted right, the quartet of DePauw, OWU, Wittenberg, and Wooster was a combined 29-0 against the other six. So far in February, the Big 4 are 9-5, including today's results (which also include OWU's overtime win today at home over Allegheny.) Back out Wooster's 4-0 mark and the other Big 3 are just .500 on the month against the second division.

It's been pointed out in here before, but I think it is worth repeating: what really separates the Wooster program from the rest of the conference is that they almost never lose the games they should win. They will sometimes lose to Witt or OWU or whoever else is in vogue that year, but they have winning records against the Hirams, Oberlins, and Kenyons that stagger the imagination. And they win championships when, inevitably, the other contenders slip up against the bottom half. Take this year for example: if they lose to Wittenberg tonight (perish the thought!), the Scots will have split with each of the other title contenders and yet will still have a one-game lead over Witt and OWU, and two over DPU, and will clinch another regular season title with wins next week over Allegheny and Oberlin--wins you can already pretty much bank on.

[David Collinge]

Wooster's being badly outhustled so far in the first half. Wittenberg is playing like they want to win more than anything; Wooster looks disinterested. And Fannelly hasn't yet showed me any reason to be in the game. 

[David Collinge]

wooscotsfan must be at the game.
Halftime: Wooster 30, Wittenberg 27
Masin has 12; Brown and Purcell have 10 and 9, respectively.
Witt leads in both rebounds (22-17) and turnovers (9-4).

[David Collinge]

Scots played better in the second half, win 60-55 and clinch a share of the regular season conference title for, what, the 87th straight year?

[David Collinge]

1. Wooster 14-2 (at Allegheny, vs. Oberlin)
2. OWU 12-4 (at Oberlin, vs. DePauw)
3. DePauw 11-5 (vs. Wabash, at OWU)
3. Wittenberg 11-5 (vs. Kenyon, at Hiram)
5. Denison 8-8 (vs. Hiram, at Allegheny)
5. Kenyon 8-8 (at Wittenberg, vs. Wabash)
7. Wabash 7-9 (at DePauw, at Kenyon)
8. Oberlin 4-12 (vs. OWU, at Wooster)
9. Hiram 3-13 (at Denison, vs. Wittenberg)
10. Allegheny 2-14 (vs. Wooster, vs. Denison)

You can pencil in two losses for Oberlin (they will clinch 8th place with a win in either game), who split their series with Hiram. Hiram really needs to win both of their games to reach the tournament, as a quick glance suggests that Oberlin holds a strong tiebreaker advantage. (Basically, I believe Hiram would have to beat Witt, have Witt beat Kenyon, and have DePauw get swept, for them to win a tiebreaker with Oberlin. This all presumes that 'Gheny loses at least one of their games to prevent a three-way tie.)

[wooscotsfan]

Back from Timken where along with over 3,000 fans (great crowd) I watched Wooster essentially wrap up another NCAC regular season title! 

Tonight's game was an offensive struggle as both teams hustled on defense and there were a limited number of open shots.  Wooster's defense won this game tonight because Doug Thorpe was 1 of 13 from the floor and Evan Pannell was 1 of 8.  On the positive side, Scott Purcell was extremely efficient in scoring 11 points on just 3 shots (3 of 3 on three pointers) and 2 free throws.  Xavier Brown had another big game with 19 points and he deserves the NCAC player of the week award with 47 points in 2 games.  Rebounds and turnovers were basically even tonight so the difference was slightly better shooting by Wooster on three pointers (7 made vs. only 5 for Witt) and free throws.

Wooster is now 20-3, 14-2 NCAC.   With 6 losses already, Witt is in danger of missing the NCAA tourney unless they win the NCAC automatic bid.

GO SCOTS!

[imderekpoe]

I think that Wooster also clinches the #1 seed in the tourney with the win tonight. The Scots and Bishops could end up tied, but Wooster would win the tie breaker based on their respective records vs Witt.

[wooscotsfan]

Congratulations to Wooster Coaches Steve Moore and Doug Cline on another 20 win season!

Wooster has now had 18 consecutive seasons with 20 or more wins ...which is extremely impressive and the result of excellent coaching!

[David Collinge]

I think that Wooster also clinches the #1 seed in the tourney with the win tonight. The Scots and Bishops could end up tied, but Wooster would win the tie breaker based on their respective records vs Witt.

Not so fast my friend. For Wooster and OWU to finish tied, OWU would have to win out, including a second win over DePauw. Should that happen, and should DPU finish tied with or ahead of Witt in the standings, OWU would secure the tiebreaker.

Unlikely, I know, especially as it presupposes Wooster losses to both Allegheny and Oberlin.

[imderekpoe]

I think that Wooster also clinches the #1 seed in the tourney with the win tonight. The Scots and Bishops could end up tied, but Wooster would win the tie breaker based on their respective records vs Witt.

Not so fast my friend. For Wooster and OWU to finish tied, OWU would have to win out, including a second win over DePauw. Should that happen, and should DPU finish tied with or ahead of Witt in the standings, OWU would secure the tiebreaker.

Unlikely, I know, especially as it presupposes Wooster losses to both Allegheny and Oberlin.

Good catch David.  My faulty memory had me thinking that DePauw had won that first meeting with OWU! 

So for the Scots NOT to get the #1 seed they would have to lose to Allegheny and Oberlin, OWU would need to beat Oberlin and DePauw, and Witt would need to lose to Kenyon or Hiram (or both if DePauw loses to Wabash on Wednesday).

[woosterbooster]

Just saw it.

It was a clean, hard screen. CALL OUT THE SCREENS!

But then, disaster for OWU. I don't know what went through Rogers' head. Thankfully Wabash didn't retaliate more than it did. And I think DeWitt must have had issues all game with the refs - he's normally not like that.

Agree, totally legal screen.  But for the rest of it, after watching the replay, I was surprised.  After reading the accounts on here, I had expected far worse.  Yeah, it was a foul, but that was no body slam, nobody was ever off the ground.  They were tangled up and Rogers pulled the other guy down.  When he ended up on top, it didn't look like he did anything at all.  Then somebody came to pull him off and that was it.  Lots of other players overreacted, it seemed to me.

[kiltedbryan]

Reprising my occasional series checking in on NCAC offensive/defensive efficiency numbers:

Updated through games of Feb. 15:

Team	Offense	Defense	Margin	SOS Rank
Wooster	112.5	94.5	18.0	13
Wittenberg	109.8	96.6	13.2	26
DePauw	109.0	97.4	11.6	47
OWU	105.8	96.6	9.1	38
Denison	103.9	106.7	-2.8	34
Kenyon	99.6	103.9	-4.3	77
Oberlin	100.5	104.9	-4.4	130
Allegheny	98.8	105.6	-6.8	110
Hiram	103.1	112.3	-9.2	178
Wabash	97.3	108.6	-11.2	39

Notes/Observations:

- Wooster has now established itself as both the most efficient offense and stingiest defense in the league, against the toughest schedule to boot. Another way to say this is that Wittenberg's offensive rating has regressed far enough to now be below the Scots.

- Denison continues to improve their overall rating/margin, and now seems to have emerged as the proper NCAC #5 seed. Massey also rates the Big Red's schedule as quite challenging.

- 5 teams (Woo, Witt, OWU, Denison, 'Bash) have SOS ranks that are in the top tenth of all DIII; the entire league is within the top third. (Oberlin's 130th-ranked schedule is in the 31st percentile) A good showing from the league this year on the SOS front.

[kiltedbryan]

One thing that doing those off/def ratings has reminded me this year, is that the strength of this year's Wooster squad might just be in the way in which they will "out-fundamental" opponents - specifically via making free throws and not turning the ball over.

Free throws: Wooster sits 7th in all of DIII with a 78.4% made FT percentage. It's their best FT campaign since the 2002-03 final-four bound team - led by Bryan Nelson at 88.5% - connected on 79.3% of FTs. And it's a dramatic improvement over the rather pedestrian 71.4% last year and 69.8% of the year before. An advantage at the line might only add up to a few points a night, but every point matters and there have been several games this season where the charity stripe has been a difference maker for the Scots.

Turnovers: Wooster sits 10th in all of DIII with 10.1 turnovers/game - easily the Scots' best mark in the past dozen years. And this is true whether you look at the nominal figure - 10.1/game - or the percentage of possessions that result in a turnover (15.3% this year), which helps adjust the turnover stat for differences in pace of play between different teams.

Here's a table of turnover data for the Scots, going back to the 2002-2003 final-four bound campaign:

Year	TO/gm	TO%
2013-2014	10.1	15.3%
2012-2013	12.3	18.5%
2011-2012	12.9	19.1%
2010-2011	12.7	19.1%
2009-2010	14.0	21.0%
2008-2009	13.7	19.6%
2007-2008	13.7	18.9%
2006-2007	13.2	18.3%
2005-2006	12.5	16.1%
2004-2005	13.8	20.4%
2003-2004	11.4	17.8%
2002-2003	14.7	21.7%

It's a pretty noticeable change for the better this season and again, those extra productive possessions can only help the Scots. The Scots also *force* turnovers on 22.4% of opponents' possessions this year - and that positive turnover differential means more possessions and more chances for the Scots in an average game.

Some of my optimism about what this team might be able to accomplish in March comes from seeing these data points and realizing that this is a team that generally won't beat itself, and that what they sometimes lack in offensive creativity/movement they make up for by being really good at some other basics and fundamentals.

[sac]

One thing about turnover stats this year is the rule changes have decreased turnovers across all divisions.  Woosters 15.8% is still very good, probably top quarter of D3, but part of the improvement over last year can be attributed to the rule changes.  Just something to consider.

[kiltedbryan]

One thing about turnover stats this year is the rule changes have decreased turnovers across all divisions.  Woosters 15.8% is still very good, probably top quarter of D3, but part of the improvement over last year can be attributed to the rule changes.  Just something to consider.

Thanks sac, a good point. One thing I did notice is that Wooster's 15.3% turnover rate is second in the NCAC to OWU, whose rate was 15.0% - which, small sample size, etc - would be the top 20% of the NCAC, suggesting your "top quarter" estimate is plausible.

In some ways, actually, Wooster was more anomalous for forcing turnovers on 22% of possessions - no one else in the NCAC is above 19%.