MBB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[David Collinge]

And just like that, it's all up in the air:

Wabash 76, OWU 71

But Wooster fails to benefit, falling at Hiram 70-69. Hiram closed on a 13-6 run over the last 5:00. OWU not only maintains a share of first, but now owns the tiebreaker. Hiram's victory snaps a 36 game losing streak at the hands of the Scots.

Oy vey.

Downballot results:
Wittenberg 85, DePauw 53
Denison 71, Kenyon 67
Oberlin 74, Allegheny 56

1. OWU, Wooster...12-3
3. Hiram...10-5
4. Wittenberg...9-6
5. Denison...8-7
6. Oberlin...7-8
7. Wabash...6-9
8. Kenyon...5-10
9. Allegheny, DePauw...3-12

[David Collinge]

With 3 games remaining, Hiram is still alive in the title hunt, but just barely. They could win it outright with 3 wins coupled with 3 losses apiece from the co-leaders. They could also finish tied with Wooster, or OWU, or both (and maybe Wittenberg too, see below.) Hiram, Wooster, and OWU are all 1-1 with each other. Both Wooster and Hiram have a game left with Wittenberg, who Hiram beat earlier (Wittenberg beat Wooster.) Versus Denison, Hiram has a loss while both Wooster and OWU have sweeps. Consequently OWU owns tiebreakers with Hiram and Wooster. Hiram's best bet is a two-way tie with Wooster, including a sweep of Wittenberg, a game ahead of OWU. Not too likely, but possible.

Wittenberg is still technically alive too, although the best they can do is tie with OWU, Wooster, and maybe Hiram at 12-6. OWU wins that tiebreaker--OWU would be 4-2 within the 4-team group, as would Wittenberg (Wooster and Hiram each 2-4), but OWU's sweep of the Tigers would give the BBs the title. In a three-way tie sans Hiram, OWU still prevails with a 3-1 aggregate vs. 2-2 for Wittenberg and 1-3 for Wooster.

[wally_wabash]

We might see some movement in the league's lower half as well.  Wabash finishes with Denison, DePauw, and Kenyon...all winnable games, but all on the road for the LGs.  Oberlin is going to finish @Hiram, vs. OWU, and @Wooster and with all of those teams playing for a league title, that's gonna be rough for the Yeomen.  0-3 is a likely scenario I think.  Wabash kind of needs all three, but two would get them clear of Oberlin (presuming Oberlin does not win another game) and up to sixth place. 

Now, should Wabash get all three of these games and Denison goes just 1-2 (games left vs. Wabash, vs. Hiram, @Allegheny), I think Wabash's OWU win is going to be the hammer.  What an important win that was last night.  That scenario would get Wabash into a 4-5 game at Witt, who I think Wabash matches up with very well. 

And that's Wally's Bottom Four Breakdown™.   I suspect that Wabash will be back amongst the top half of the league starting next year and I can refocus on championship scenarios.   

[David Collinge]

Wait 'til next year? Wabash seems to have found its sea legs this season.

Wabash 86, Denison 61 (@ Denison, where the Big Red were doubtless distracted by the conference swimming and diving championships)
Hiram 78, Oberlin 68
OWU 105, Allegheny 84...Wittenberg is officially eliminated
Kenyon 81, DePauw 79
Wittenberg leads Wooster by 8 with 11:00 left, outscoring Woo 24-11 since the half; Scots fight back to tie with 1:53 left, going to OT (again); OT underway but live stats seems to have fouled out, Wooster by 6 with 1:21 left; Wooster extends to win 99-86

1. OWU, Wooster...13-3
3. Hiram...11-5
4. Wittenberg...9-7
5. Denison...8-8
6. Oberlin, Wabash...7-9
8. Kenyon...6-10
9. Allegheny, DePauw...3-13

[wally_wabash]

Wait 'til next year? Wabash seems to have found its sea legs this season.

Good time to get hot.  We saw DePauw get hot at the end of last season.  They won the league tournament, won a first round tournament game at WashU and nearly beat #1 in the second round.  So who knows what might happen in the next couple of weeks. 

Wabash was outstanding offensively this afternoon at Livingston.  Purvilicis has been a monster during the three game win streak and that'll have to continue for the duration.  In addition to Purv's 24 (on 11-13 shooting!) and 14, Johnny Jager hit a Wabash single game record with 13 assists today. 

Side note on Purvlicis during this win streak.  In addition to his 11-13 shooting today, he was 9-11 (23 points) vs. OWU and 13-15 (28 points) vs. Allegheny.  Don't have a PER calculator in front of me, but that's crazy efficiency. 

Wabash runs their Senior Day win streak to 2 (their own vs. OWU and today at Denison).  Up next is going to be Senior Night at DePauw on Wednesday and one more Senior Day next Saturday at Kenyon.  Both winnable games, but Senior Days are tough so it's going to take two more great efforts to get these last two games. 

Also, DePauw is officially eliminated from the postseason.  That's too bad.   

[David Collinge]

Also, DePauw is officially eliminated from the postseason.  That's too bad.   

'Gheny too, obviously. So the field is set, and all that remains is the seeding. Without actually running the numbers, I think OWU has clinched the top seed. I know they own a two-way tiebreaker with Wooster (unless, somehow, Wittenberg and Wabash end up tied for 4th, ahead of Denison; then #1 goes to a coin toss), and they win a three-way tiebreaker so long as Witt and Denison remain in the top 5. I'm not sure what adding Oberlin and/or Wabash to the top 5 mix does to the equation, and I'm not motivated to run the scenarios since OWU is not going to lose their last two games (Oberlin and DePauw), and one win eliminates Hiram.

[fantastic50]

I put Massey's win probabilities and the season-to-date results into my HSFB engine, to simulate the rest of the season (and tiebreakers) many times.  Here are the seed probabilities...

OWU - 84% #1, 16% #2 (control own destiny for #1 seed, own tiebreaker over Woo)
Wooster - 16% #1, 84% #2 (need an OWU loss, or lots of help, to get #1 seed)
(There is very slight chance of either of these falling to the #3 seed, with 2 losses, plus 2 Hiram wins, etc.)
Hiram - 0.2% #2, 99.8% #3 (own tiebreaker over Witt)
Witt - 92% #4, 6% #5, 2% #6
Denison - 5% #4, 70% #5, 24% #6, 1% #7
Wabash - 3% #4, 23% #5, 46% #6, 14% #7, 14% #8
Oberlin - 1% #5, 22 % #6, 72% #7, 5% #8
Kenyon - 0.4% #5, 6% #6, 12% #7, 81% #8

So, the best guess is...
(8) Kenyon at (1) OWU
(5) Denison at (4) Witt
(7) Oberlin at (2) Wooster
(6) Wabash at (3) Hiram

That makes for potential OWU/Witt and Hiram/Wooster semis at Branch Rickey Arena if the seeds hold up.

[David Collinge]

Haha, yeah, I completely forgot about the scenario where Wooster wins the title outright. D'oh!

[imderekpoe]

Yeah, I know this season is just hitting the home stretch, but I was poking around on the NCAC site and found the future schedules. For the next two seasons Wooster and Witt will play the final weekend!

http://northcoast.org/mediacenter/Future_Schedules/Basketball/2016-17_-_2019-20_NCAC_Basketball_Schedules_-8-19-15-.pdf

Also, per Tuesday's Daily Record David had the tiebreaker basically correct.  "TIEBREAKER -- According to the NCAC office, the following tiebreakers will be used in the event there are any ties in the standings: 1. Head-to-Head competition; 2. Combined win-loss record with all teams above tied teams; 3. Record versus individual opponents examined in descending order of standings; 4. Coin toss."  As of now, OWU holds the edge over Wooster and is likely to be the host team next weekend.

[David Collinge]

Someone else can do the update tonight, if anyone beyond me cares. Work destroyed me today and I'm too damn tired. OWU and Wooster won, Hiram (to Denison) and Witt (to Kenyon) lost, and Wabash and DePauw are in 2OT when I last checked. Denison is now tied with Witt for 4th.

[imderekpoe]

DePauw won in 3 OT.

[fantastic50]

Ohio Wesleyan 93, Oberlin 75
Wooster 92, Allegheny 74
Denison 86, Hiram 77
Kenyon 67, Wittenberg 58
DePauw 114, Wabash 110 (3OT)

1) OWU 14-3 (holds tiebreaker on Wooster, based on sweep of Wittenberg)
1) Wooster 14-3 (gets #1 seed only with a win over Oberlin plus an OWU loss)
3) Hiram 11-6 (locked into #3 seed)
4) Wittenberg 9-8 (gets #4 seed with a win over Hiram, as tiebreaker at 10-8 would be win over Wooster)
4) Denison 9-8 (gets #4 seed with a Witt loss, as tiebreaker at 9-9 would be Denison's two wins over top three teams)
6) Oberlin 7-10 (wins all tiebreakers, due to sweeps of Wabash & Kenyon; #6 seed with a win over Wooster, #7 with a loss)
6) Wabash 7-10 (#6 or #7 seed with a win over Kenyon, depending on Oberlin; #8 with a loss)
6) Kenyon 7-10 (#6 or #7 seed with a win over Wabash, depending on Oberlin; #8 with a loss)
9) DePauw 4-13
10) Allegheny 3-14

[wally_wabash]

Wild game down in Greencastle last night.  Definitely one of the all-timers in the Wabash-DePauw series.  Have to give a hat tip to DePauw's Luke Lattner who scored 55 points in the game, breaking the single game NCAC record previously held by Scott Tedder.  And when you're breaking Scott Tedder records, you've done something special.  DPU needed every bit of that record performance to get the win last night, too. 

Wabash wraps up at Kenyon on Saturday, which will have some seeding implications now thanks to Kenyon's big win at Witt. 

[smedindy]

Remember when Wittenberg would never even think of being down in the standings with Hiram, Denison and Kenyon. I think that went away with Artie Taylor's red suits.

[imderekpoe]

Remember when Wittenberg would never even think of being down in the standings with Hiram, Denison and Kenyon. I think that went away with Artie Taylor's red suits.

Its such a shame to see them fall on hard times!  (Realizing of course, that Witt's "hard times" is still better than most.)