MBB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[earlhamalum]

Pat Coleman- Thanks... my knowledge for basketball is exactly what I thought it was.  That article is everything I thought about assist/T.O/Steals. 2 things.

1.) What about a pass a shot and a FOUL.. no bucket?  Meaning a pass that would of been an assist if it went in, but the player got Fouled?  I heard that in the NBA if they hit a free-throw... never heard of such a thing in the College level?

2.) Can I look at all my game film and change my career stats.... Oh wait I'm not sure if that would help or hurt me..

[smedindy]

As a statistician, I can say that at Wabash, we don't give out cheap assists, and I do know of one NCAC school that was reprimanded for giving out the assists like they were Halloween candy.

In the NBA, assists are NOT awarded if a person is fouled in the act and makes the free throws.

As for Earlham, the stats against Wabash were a joke. Minutes were all wrong, and assists were criminally low, so says some people in the know. The SID needs to pay attention and get the kids head in the game.

I do know that we check our stats (fouls and points) with the official scorer, write down every play to make sure we don't miss anything, and I, in my job of running the program, always make sure we get everything right. The SID has the ownership, though, and it looks bad on him or her if things are wrong and the minutes don't balance.

[waterboy]

Woo's assists may seem high at times, but trust me, they are right where they should be.  It attests to their style of play and continuous ball movement. 

If you don't believe me, just check out the Scot women's statistics.  They are near the bottom of the NCAC in assists, yet the same people keep tally for both men and women.

Speaking of which, anyone going to stick around for the Scot women against Earlham following the men's game tomorrow?  Should be a good one;  Wooster trying to end an 11-game losing streak against the last team it beat on Dec. 3.  You know you don't want to miss that.  

[earlhamalum]

After reading Billy_pilgram earlier I believe he might drive to Wooster just for the woman's game!  I heard he has a Strong desire for Woman's Basketball...

[smedindy]

Oh, I know Woosters assists are right, at this present juncture, having seen them played.

[kiltedbryan]

Wow.  I thought my week of classes was busy, and then I come back to the board to learn that I've missed 8 pages of commentary on the Scots and Kenyon?!?

On Wooster's tournament fortunes:

Wooster is an offensive make-or-break squad.  As many people have noted, on a good night Wooster will more than live up to its #2 in the country billing (remember, on a good night it beat the current #1 squad).  As DC listed here, Woo is #10 in made 3-pts per game, and #2 in percentage.  That's a deadly shooting team.

But the question, for the tournament, in my mind, isn't what Woo does on a good night, but what they can accomplish if they have an off-night.  Here's my take:

Offensively, an off-Wooster night means something like the 76 pts scored at Kenyon.  This is a respectable figure, and means that even on an off-night Woo should have enough offensive to stay with most teams.

Defensively, I think too many people forget that Wooster is leading the country in winning margin, at 22.1 pts per game.  I agree that Woo has no commanding inside player of the like of Player of the Year Bryan Nelson to control low post defense, and so of course Wooster has been challenged to stop the likes of Witt's Russ and Tori Davis of BW.  But, to say that Wooster's defensive intensity is lacking seems like a weak argument to me, especially because defensive intensity is THE focal point of Steve Moore's coaching. 
Rather, Wooster has the same defensive intensity they have had in past years, but the pace of their game has significantly changed.  Compare Woo year-to-year:
This year through 18 games, average per game (04-05 season total in 30 games, average per game):

Steals:  182, 10.1 (193, 6.4)
Turnover forced: 307, 17.0 (363, 12.1)

In fact, the current squad's averages here are better than the '03 final four team (or indeed any recent Wooster squad):
'02-'03 steals: 242/33 games= 7.3
'02-'03 turnovers forced:  465/33 = 14.0

The reason Wooster doesn't get national ranking for defensive categories isn't because they aren't playing defense- it's because teams are averaging 79 ppg against them, which is must too high to be considered among the top in defense (while Woo averages 100).

Does anyone know if a turnover margin stat is kept at the national level?  So far as I can tell, Wooster's opponents have committed 307 to Wooster's 237 this year, a +70 margin and a rate of +3.8 per game.  This looks better than previous Wooster teams have done, as well.

And, after saying all this, I do hope I was reading/interperting the Woo stat page correctly!   8)

[David Collinge]

Another busy day in here, lots of catching up to do but very little time to do so.  Three comments, however.

1.) Scots Fan, you do realize that I am the source of all that "ketchup and mustard" nonsense in the MIAA room, right?   Can't blame that one on sac and co.  I take no responsibility for the Super Sweetness silliness, however; I don't even bother to read it. 

2.) I think Wooster has defensive issues, especially in the low post, but it doesn't mean these are fatal.  After all, Dan Russ had (another) career game against Wooster, but Wooster still managed to win that game.  And Tori Davis had the game of a lifetime against Wooster, and it still went to two OTs to decide that one.  I guess the thinking is that, if you don't match up well in the low post, you defend everything else as well as you can and hope that your five can outscore their one. 

Also, Wooster doesn't do well in defensive rankings partly because there are issues, but mstly because of their style of play.  Wooster's goals are to score 1.1 points per possession, and to allow no more than 0.8 points per possession on defense.  Even when they manage to hold teams to 0.8 ppp, as they did vs. Kenyon, that still translates to a lot of points, since Wooster's offense generates a lot of possessions for the other team.

3.) Wittenberg has not been a very good tournament team lately, and I think it's mostly because they depend so heavily on the play of Russ and Borchers down low.  While that works in the NCAC, it doesn't always work against teams that can exploit the perimeter (like JCU) or otherwise counter the big men (who didn't seem so big when compared to some other non-NCAC post players.)  The difference this season is I think both are playing better and stronger, especially Borchers.  They compliment each other better, and with the one-two punch more effective it opens up more options on the perimeter.  Add that to the fact that Witt is the best defensive team in D3 (again) and is also hitting free throws (especially Borchers, who is something like 10th nationally), and I think they're going to Salem this year.

[CentralOH]

DC,

I apologize if this has ever been covered or if I'm breaking some forum rule by questioning another poster's identity, but I must ask: what is your background?  Did you play? coach?

I'm too new to be able to award karma, but if i could, you'd get points from me for 50%+ of your posts.  I really enjoy your insight and the level of understanding you bring to the discussion.

I've only been around for a few weeks and I don't frequent other forums outside the NCAC page (well, I read, but never post), but I have to say that the "regulars" are a pretty knowledgeable group.

I'm an equal opportunity fan when it comes to basketball - I love high school, D1, D3, etc. - everything except the NBA - and the comments and opinion that I get in here are top-notch.

Now on a more important note - Go Big Red - here's your chance to knock off number 1.  Wish I could be there...

[smedindy]

DC is our lead pontificator - and as my D3hoops.com attorney he advises me to say nothing and act casual. (HAH!)

[David Collinge]

DC is our lead pontificator - and as my D3hoops.com attorney he advises me to say nothing and act casual. (HAH!)

I thought Li'l Giant was your attorney.  He's my attorney!

DC,

I apologize if this has ever been covered or if I'm breaking some forum rule by questioning another poster's identity, but I must ask: what is your background?  Did you play? coach?

I don't think there's any harm in asking questions, as long as you don't expect answers from those who wish to remain anonymous.  My carefully-crafted screen name suggests that anonymity is not high on my priority list.     (Leaving aside my brief trip down Memphis-memory lane earlier this week; "Memphis" was my screen name when I started posting however many years ago.) 

Did I play?  As a Wooster undergrad, I attended most of the basketball games, and played nearly every time.  Of course, what I played was the trombone, in the pep band...    (For that matter, I played at EVERY football game.  Hey, where's my varsity letter?  )

I appreciate the compliment, however undeserved it may be.   

[Li'l Giant]

I thought Li'l Giant was your attorney.  He's my attorney!

You need a chiropractor? I know a mediocre one I can send you to.  And about that retainer....

[wooscotsfan]

Add that to the fact that Witt is the best defensive team in D3 (again) and is also hitting free throws (especially Borchers, who is something like 10th nationally), and I think they're going to Salem this year.

DC - quite often we agree on points but I'll take the opposite view here  
because I don't see Wittenberg reaching Salem this year for several reasons:

1.  Witt doesn't shoot a very high field goal percentage.
NCAA Stats thru 1/22 (Field Goal %)
Baldwin-Wallace 55.3%
Wooster 53.6%
Bethany 52.1%
Albion 48.9%
Carnegie Mellon 48.8%
Wittenberg 48.2%

If any of these teams shoot well, they stand a great chance of beating Witt and I just listed a few potential Great Lakes opponents.  Many tournament teams shoot better than 48% from the floor.

2.  Witt doesn't have the guard play to go deep in the NCAA tourney.  Guards are critical come tourney time because they must take care of and distribute the ball.

Witt actually has a team Assist to Turnover ratio below 1.0 this year (0.98).  In big games, this tendency to have more turnovers than assists really seems to hurt the Tigers.  In nearly all of the Tiger's losses the last 2+ years (JCU, JCU, Woo, Wash U., etc.) they have had far more turnovers than assists.  Witt is averaging 14.2 turnovers per game this season and that number will likely rise against good tournament teams.

3.  Witt doesn't shoot the three pointer particularly well.  Tigers average 6.7 made three pointers a game.  This leaves them very susceptible to any opponent that makes 8 or more three pointers a game.  In nearly all of the Tigers losses the last 2+ years, their opponents have made more three pointers which has been a big factor in Witt losing those games.  It doesn't take too many three pointers to offset all the two pointers being made by Russ and Borchers.  Wooster won earlier this year when they made 11 three pointers against Witt.

Final note:  I am not predicting Wooster either to go to Salem this year.  IMO though, the Scots have a better shot (pun intended  ) at making a tourney run than Witt because Wooster has great guards, strong three point shooters and lots of recent tournament experience that could help them in some tight games.  

[ScotsFan]

Also, Wooster doesn't do well in defensive rankings partly because there are issues, but mstly because of their style of play.  Wooster's goals are to score 1.1 points per possession, and to allow no more than 0.8 points per possession on defense.  Even when they manage to hold teams to 0.8 ppp, as they did vs. Kenyon, that still translates to a lot of points, since Wooster's offense generates a lot of possessions for the other team.

I think Coach Moore is referring to it as defensive efficiencey rating (DER).  There was an article that discussed this in the Daily Record and  how this has been a sore spot with Coach Moore all season because he feels that Wooster's DER has been too high in too many games.  Here is a link to the article if anyone is interested:

The Daily Record article on Wooster's DER

This seems to be Coach Moore's main area of concern with the defense.  He is not so much worried about giving up so many ppg as has been mentioned by scotsbrod and DC, but the DER has consistently been over the .8 ppp that is Wooster's goal.  It has even been over 1 ppp in several of Wooster's games which definately has Coach Moore's attention.  This topic seems to come up after every game in the post game comments as Coach Moore is quick to point this out.  Even if the Scots gave up a lot of points, Moore is only concerned about one thing and that is whether or not the DER was at 1 or lower.  If that is the case, he will more than lilkey be in a better mood.  At least the Scots had that going for them in the Kenyon game.  One of the few things they did well in that game.

[WoosterBNel]

Witt doesn't have any guard play? Denbow, Steffes, and Bowen not only can shoot the three but are three of the hardest nosed guys in the ncac. Sometimes the gauge of a guard is not the numbers they put up but the refusal to lose and these three have those intangible qualities. It is just like a Wooster fan to point at our guards and try to ignore the best two post men in the country standing below the basket. However I think we are leaving out the most important factor in this mix. Without Port, Kenny Brady poses HUGE matchup problems for Wooster. Superior post play with the ability to drain the 3 ball with consistency. If there is one thing I know about these guys from Witt is that they take a lot of pride in their homecourt and the HPER will be ROCKING come Witt v Woo at the HPER Feb. 4. Who You Witt!

[BogeyMan]

DC,
I couldn't agree with you more on the possibility of a weakness in Wooster's low post defense.  Like you said Tori Davis had his way against Wooster and won.  I believe Davis had 42 or 44 points that game.  BW beat Wooster with average or just a bit above average guards.

Albion beat BW because Crawford (20 pts., 17 rebs.) could compete with Davis (22 pts., 8 rebs.)

Just a side note, I have seen both Davis and Crawford twice and they maybe the two best post players in the GL Region and possibly the country.