MBB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[wally_wabash]

Also, I was going to mention this earlier, and some have already touched on it, but it's not as though Wooster is getting a cakewalk in their section of the bracket.  It isn't as tough as Witt's road, but Wooster is facing a ranked opponent in their opening round game on a neutral floor in #25 R-MC.  And if Wooster gets by the Yellow Jackets, they will, in all likelihood face another top 25 team on their own home floor in #21 Transy.  I'm not saying I would want to trade with Witt, but, Wooster's draw is by no means a cakewalk in comparison either.

Acutally, by comparison to Witt, Wooster's draw IS a cakewalk.  That's the point. 

[WooMix]

I had a great morning filling out my brackets.  Here is how I see it:

Woo will beat R-Macon, Transy, and Miss
Hope will beat Wis. Lutheran, Calvin, and Witt

Wooster will prevail over Hope on their way to the Final Four where they will beat Amherst for a chance to play Lawrence in the final.  Lawrence will have beaten Va. Wesleyan in the other Final Four game.

Wooster will win a close one over Lawrence ultimately ending Lawrence's Cinderella season.

Only if I had it my way??? ...   

[pennstghs]

i for some reason doubt this but i'll ask anyways?

what is the scouting report on lake erie college? obviously they are a decent team but are they going to suffer the same fate as some other decent "lesser" teams such as penn-state behrend and tiffany last year

[scotty]

i know im getting old...when i was in college, we used to bus the girls over from Lake Erie College or as we called it "Lake College for Eerie Girls"...oh those mixers

[woosterbooster]

Lake Erie College has a converted Massey to Sagarin SOS rating of 56.61.  That's compared to Wittenberg's 61.95.  So, over 5 points a game in Witt's favor.  Take another couple of points, at least, for being on your home floor.  That's a 7 point differential before we even begin looking to see who's the better team.

Lake Erie scores at 75.7 and gives up 66.3.  They rebounded exactly even against their opponents at 36.6 a game.  They shoot the ball at 46%.

I'm hoping to preplay this game later today as one of the first that I do.  I'll post the result.  I predict a very, very easy Wittenberg victory.

[smedindy]

I was not aware Wittenberg was #1 in the region. I guess that makes sense that are hosting, but BW should have been somewhere else in the bracket, hosting.

Nope, Hope has better numbers, too. Sorry, BW's in a tough spot, but them's the berries.

The byes in other regions are due to the NCAA wanting to save money, basically, as far as I can see.

[David Collinge]

Well, good morning everyone!  Busy morning in here so far.
Here's my first-look comments:
1) The team in our (well, your) area that really got screwed by the pairings is Carnegie Mellon.
2) If you take off your Great Lakes blinders, you'll see that Wooster's draw is every bit as tough as Wittenberg's; in fact, it may be tougher, for two reasons:
  a) Witt is at home, and Wooster is on the road (whoever it was that said that Wooster is a higher seed than Witt, and that the NCAA had predetermined that last week sometime, is just flat wrong)
  b) Wooster could very well lose their first-round game, to a very tough Randolph Macon squad, whereas Witt's JV could probably beat Lake Erie.
3) We all think very highly of the teams in Witt's very tough part of the draw (BW or CMU, then Hope or Calvin, and this sectional could well be at the HPER Center) but from the NCAA's calculus Wooster's opponents (RMC, then Transylvania, then Mississippi College or Trinity, all on the road for certain) are as tough if not tougher.

Both Witt and Wooster will have to play excellent ball to advance to the sectional final against each other, but both are capable of doing it.  They're also both capable of losing this weekend. 

As far as the BYEs are concerned, one went to Puget Sound for geographic reasons, and the other four went to the teams that appear to be the top 4 national seeds: Amherst, Lawrence, St. John Fisher, and Va. Wesleyan.  It was clear (to me) from the criteria that the first three were the top 3 seeds; and Va Wesleyan is a plausible 4th seed, under the criteria.  They have a pretty easy bracket, and if they reach Salem, they're going to be very tough to beat there.

Re: the Maryvilles, both are almost exactly 500 miles from Clinton, MS (the site of Miss. College).  The NCAA has required Maryville TN to bus that distance before ("required" means they won't pay the airfare), so I expect the same rule applies to Maryville MO.  Trinity TX has no tournament-bound neighbors within 500 miles, so they're flying whereever they go anyway.

Re: Baldwin-Wallace: I agree that their late-season struggles hurt their hosting chancs, but sending the OAC champ down to Springfield early in the draw is old-hat for the NCAA.  Lately it has worked out pretty well for them. 

Re: Transyvlania vs. Wooster:  If you look objectively at the criteria, as smedindy has, there is zero doubt that Transylvania is the higher seed.  Of course, the fact that they are hosting tips that off, but they clearly are superior to Wooster according to the numbers.  Wittenberg did beat them, a long time ago, but I took it then and still take it now as a testament to Witt rather than a knock on Transy.  They will be a tough matchup for the winner of Woo/RMC.

Re: our quarter of the draw:  It's a bear all right.  I see ten teams in there that are good enough to go to Salem.  I wish I knew where the sectional was contemplated; that is, how the teams are seeded.  The sectional is likely to be at either Witt or Hope (I still think Witt is the higher seed); Miss. College could be the highest seed in the bracket, but I doubt the NCAA would fly 3 teams there rather than just one (be it Miss. Coll. or Trninty) to the north.  If the sectional teams turn out to be Miss. Coll., Calvin, B-W or CMU, and Wooster (which is quite possible), the committee is going to have to make a very tough site selection decision.

If I could make one and only one change to the bracket, it would have been to put more separation between Hope and Calvin.  A second round matchup of these two is a disservice to their rivalry, to the MIAA, and to D3 fans everywhere.

Oh, and finally, I like my bracket better. 

[woosterbooster]

Boy, you west coast lawyers sure sleep in late... 

[blindwatchmaker]

Stats and roster for R-MC.

http://www.rmc.edu/athletics/basketball/mens/BBstats/2006/teamcume.htm

http://www.rmc.edu/athletics/basketball/mens/2005-06_roster.asp


The starters are (Top three are their main scorers although Sutherland is a threat from outside the arc):

Wansley 6-6 F
Hawley  6-8 F
Krovic 6-3 G
Sutherland 6-0 G
Short 5-10 G
Key reserves
Carlson 6-4 G
Gill 6-1 G
Dixon 6-5 F

[David Collinge]

Justin Wansley will be the best player the Scots have seen since Tori Davis came to town.

[blindwatchmaker]

DC- Any more info on Wansley?  How will Port, Vandervaart, or Will match up?

[blindwatchmaker]

Info on Lake Erie...

http://www.lec.edu/athletics/mb/Games0506/teamcume.htm

http://www.lec.edu/athletics/mb/ros05.htm

[wally_wabash]

b) Wooster could very well lose their first-round game, to a very tough Randolph Macon squad, whereas Witt's JV could probably beat Lake Erie.

DC, I think we've seen that Wooster can lose to any team in this tournament.  When Wooster shoots the ball well, it's hard for anybody to keep up with them and Wooster wins games by scores of 103-84 or some such thing.  When they don't shoot well (particularly the three ball), they're in big, big trouble because Wooster can't grind a game out in the 60s or 70s.  Saturday's NCAC championship was such a game where Wooster didn't shoot well, the score was kept reasonable, and Wooster didn't have the defense to get it done.  Ditto the OWU game (Scots had just 28% on 3 point FGs).  Without the three ball, Wooster has a hard time winning.  When the Scots are hitting their 3's, nobody can beat them.  When they aren't, everybody can beat them.  The Scots will go as far in the tournament as the 3 point shot takes them and that would be the case no matter what draw Wooster got. 

[David Collinge]

DC- Any more info on Wansley?  How will Port, Vandervaart, or Will match up?

I've never seen him in person, but by reputation he's big and athletic and can pretty much do it all: shoot, create, dish, rebound.  Like someone with James Cooper's offensive skills, Brandon Crawford's size, and Brandon Miller's athletic ability.

He's a first team preseason All-American, whereas Tori Davis, at the same position, was 4th team.

[David Collinge]

b) Wooster could very well lose their first-round game, to a very tough Randolph Macon squad, whereas Witt's JV could probably beat Lake Erie.

DC, I think we've seen that Wooster can lose to any team in this tournament.  When Wooster shoots the ball well, it's hard for anybody to keep up with them and Wooster wins games by scores of 103-84 or some such thing.  When they don't shoot well (particularly the three ball), they're in big, big trouble because Wooster can't grind a game out in the 60s or 70s.  Saturday's NCAC championship was such a game where Wooster didn't shoot well, the score was kept reasonable, and Wooster didn't have the defense to get it done.  Ditto the OWU game (Scots had just 28% on 3 point FGs).  Without the three ball, Wooster has a hard time winning.  When the Scots are hitting their 3's, nobody can beat them.  When they aren't, everybody can beat them.  The Scots will go as far in the tournament as the 3 point shot takes them and that would be the case no matter what draw Wooster got. 

What I meant was that Randolph-Macon was a very good team, capable of beating anyone in the draw.  I think you knew that that's what I meant.