MBB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[David Collinge]

I do think that Steve Moore does understand NCAA selection criteria. Chances are that Wooster is going to be first or second in the NCAC with a pretty impressive record. It has happened year after year after year lately. Playing a more challenging schedule, while throwing away potential SOSI (or whatever it is called now) points will prepare Wooster for the tournament better than playing the Oberlins and Hirams of the midwest. With the expanded field, I don't think Wooster has to worry too much about making the tournament unless something disasterous happens.

On the other hand, with the expanded definitions of "regions," I think that the Scots may be able to find some quality competition in the region in the coming years.

I agree with pufin.  My first reaction upon seeing the schedule was that the Scots must have had trouble filling out the schedule.  I still think that's probably the case; I think I recall that one of those NAIA games (perhaps Walsh?) was a last-minute addition.  I'd have to believe that Coach Moore would rather play B-W, Capital, or Otterbein than Cedarville or Walsh. 

But I don't think it hurts Wooster's shot at a tourney berth.  They'll end up playing at least 18 and as many as 22 in-region games.  Sixteen are regular season conference games, plus ONU (in the Mose Hole Classic) and either Emory & Henry or MUC in the Van Wie Classic; those are certain.  They might see Calvin in the Mose Hole, and they could play as many as three games in the NCAC tournament.  If the Scots don't win at least 15 regular season conference games and reach the tourney finals, they're not making the NCAAs regardless of their regional record or SOSI.  If they do, they'll be at least 17-4 against NCAC opponents, and a win over a quality opponent such as Calvin or ONU might be enough to ensure a berth. 

Let's say the Scots play all 22 possible regional games, and go 18-4.  (Any worse and they're in big trouble, given the probable weakness of the NCAC.)  That's a win percentage of .818.  The Scots will probably do well to split those 4 NAIA games.  If they had found four similarly tough in-region games to replace those 4 NAIA teams, and went 2-2, that would make them 20-6, or .769, and they'd probably take a SOSI hit as well (best-case scenario would be about 10.5 SOSI for those four games.)

All in all, despite my earlier misgivings, I think the current schedule provides a good balance between games that set up the Scots to qualify for the tourney, and games that set them up to be competitive in that tourney.

[ScotsFan]

I like the additions of the NAIA teams.  Given the fact that Wooster already has 16 in-region conference games, as DC mentioned, I would feel that is a sufficient number when it comes to NCAA tournament selection criteria.  It's a matter of what the Scots do in those 16 games that will determine whether or not they warrant being selected.

As for games vs. the NAIA, I would much rather see Wooster schedule games like these against tougher competition than to go out and schedule cupcacke DIII opponents for the sake of gaining in-region opponents.  As was stated earlier, I agree that I don't think this will hurt the Scots if they happen to not gain the automatic bid by winning the conference tournament.  If by chance they don't finish 1st or 2nd in the regular season conference standings, I don't think they would be deserving of an at large bid anyways.  Not that I see that happening, but the possibililty is there. 

I think where playing these NAIA teams could hurt the Scots is when it comes time to decide who's hosting.  I think it is a must for Wooster to sweep their non-conference in-region games if they want to have a shot at hosting come NCAA tournament time.  They have to beat ONU and if they happen to face Calvin, they must win that game as well.  IMO, had the Scots beaten BW last year, they would have been hosting Transy and not the other way around.  I also feel that they can't afford more than 1 conference loss if they want a shot at hosting one or more NCAA tournament games.  Historically, Wooster has not fared well in NCAA tournament games when forced to go on the road, so they have to win as many in-region games as possible to put themselves in a good position to be a viable candidate to host some tournament games.

If the Scots don't win at least 15 regular season conference games and reach the tourney finals, they're not making the NCAAs regardless of their regional record or SOSI.  If they do, they'll be at least 17-4 against NCAC opponents, and a win over a quality opponent such as Calvin or ONU might be enough to ensure a berth. 

DC, I'm not quite understanding your numbers from above.  If Wooster were to win 15 regular season conference games that would make them 15-1 in conference play.  If they were to make it to the finals and lose that would be a record of 17-2.  There is only a maximum of 19 conference games that could be played (16 regular season and 3 tournement games).  I agree with you in that if they were to win 15 conference games and make it to the tournment finals I think they are in.  With the expanded tournament, I think they get in regardless of the results against ONU or if they happen to meet Calvin.  As far as hosting tournament games is concerned, wins against ONU and Calvin would be a must.  Also, anything less than a one loss conference season coupled with a tournament title would hurt their hosting chances as well.

[David Collinge]

DC, I'm not quite understanding your numbers from above.  If Wooster were to win 15 regular season conference games that would make them 15-1 in conference play.  If they were to make it to the finals and lose that would be a record of 17-2. 

Oops.  I'm a lawyer; I don't do math.  I meant 13 regular season wins (13-3), not 15.  Add to that a 2-1 tourney record, and I arrive at 15-4 conference record as being the minimum for tournament consideration.  I don't know why I suddenly imagined an 18-game conference regular season.  Sorry.

It's possible that the Wooster braintrust has decided that, considering the low SOSI generated by most conference games, Wooster's hosting chances depend on their results vs. Wittenberg alone.  Two or three more wins against quality regional (i.e., OAC) opponents might not offset the many wins against sub-.500 teams combined with two or three losses to Witt.  (It's an even bigger Catch-22 with MIAA opponents; generally they play so few regional games, that it's not only possible that a Calvin, Hope, or Albion might slip to sub-.667 with a couple of upsets, but losing to Wooster makes that even more likely.)  So maybe the thinking is, play four tough NAIA games (2 on the road) to help prepare the team to play better on the road in the NCAAs, if it comes to that.  It's a way to better control your destiny, as opposed to trying to outwit the system.  Just a thought.

[David Collinge]

From the Top 25 room:

Street & Smith's Top 10 is...

1. Wooster
2. Mississippi College
3. Virginia Wesleyan
4. Baldwin-Wallace
5. St. Thomas
6. Amherst
7. Maryville (TN)
8. UW-Whitewater
9. William Paterson
10. Wittenberg

Their All-America team is:

1st
Brandon Adair, Virginia Wesleyan
James Cooper, Wooster
Tori Davis, Baldwin-Wallace
Isaac Rosefelt, St. Thomas
Tyler Winford, Mississippi College

2nd
Ton Ton Balenga, Virginia Wesleyan
Jon Krull, UW-Stevens Point
Luis Martinez, William Paterson
Tom Port, Wooster
Joe Werner, UW-LaCrosse

"Possible Breakthroughs" are:

Albright, Augustana, Bates, Bridgewater State, Calvin, Carroll, Claremont-Mudd-Scripps, Cortland, Hamilton, Hope, Howard Payne, John Carroll, Lincoln, Mass-Boston, Mass-Dartmouth, New Jersey City, New York U., North Central, Ohio Northern, Plattsburgh State, Randolph-Macon, Roanoke, Rochester, Rutgers-Newark, Scranton, St. John Fisher, St. John's, SUNY Potsdam, Tufts, Utica, Williams, UW-Oshkosh, UW-Stevens Point, UW-Stout, Worcester Poly, York

(emphasis added)

Take it for whatever it's worth.  S&S also has Georgetown (KY) as #7 in their NAIA poll; Georgetown is playing at Wooster on Nov. 28.

[diehardfan]

Take it for whatever it's worth. 

Uhm, someone from Wooster is paying of the street and smith guys???

Personally, with no disrespect intended toward Wooster at all, cause they're a fantastic basketball program, it baffles me how VaWes could not be the preseason #1 since they were the national champs with a very young squad last year. But oh well... I know you know this, it's still funny.

[David Collinge]

Well, it's not terribly far-fetched.  Wooster returns their entire squad, except for PG Kyle Witucky, from a team that finished 26-4 and handed national runner-up Wittenberg two of their four losses.  Those returnees include two D3Hoops.com All Americans as well as the conference Player and Newcomer of the Year.  Without doing any kind of analysis of the national scene, I anticipate that Wooster and Va. Wesleyan will both be in the D3Hoops.com preseason top 5, perhaps as the top two.

Wittenberg at #10 is a little more surprising to me, considering that they lost three key contributors (Russ, Brady, Steffes) from last seaon's outstanding team. 

[sac]

It baffles me how the 4th best team at the Wittenberg Sectional last year can be considered #2.  I think Street and  Smiths just looked at returning rosters.




Hey DC, keep in mind the MIAA schools pick up 2 free in-region games with Tri-State games counting this year. 

14 conference games
up to 3 conference tournament games
whaterver in-region games

Calvin and Hope both have 2 potential in-region games off of memory, Albion has a couple as well.

[diehardfan]

Well, it's not terribly far-fetched.  Wooster returns their entire squad, except for PG Kyle Witucky, from a team that finished 26-4 and handed national runner-up Wittenberg two of their four losses.  Those returnees include two D3Hoops.com All Americans as well as the conference Player and Newcomer of the Year.  Without doing any kind of analysis of the national scene, I anticipate that Wooster and Va. Wesleyan will both be in the D3Hoops.com preseason top 5, perhaps as the top two.

Wittenberg at #10 is a little more surprising to me, considering that they lost three key contributors (Russ, Brady, Steffes) from last seaon's outstanding team. 

yeah, but if it wasn't for the early fouls on justin wansley from RMC, you wouldn't have even gotten that far

I'm sure wooster has a shot at the top 5, beyond that I'm not speculating until I do more research... and I still think it would be absurd to pick anyone besides va was as #1. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

April,

While I agree that Wesleyan should be pre-season #1, you've got the wrong state!

1996: IWU finished 3rd in the country, graduated 4 starters, leaving only junior Bryan Crabtree (soon to be POY).
1997: IWU won the national championship.

2006: IWU finished 3rd in the country, graduated 4 starters, leaving only junior Zach Freeman ( ).
2007: IWU won  .

[diehardfan]

2006: IWU finished 3rd in the country, graduated 4 starters, leaving only junior Zach Freeman ( ).
2007: IWU won... maybe one game against NPU the entire season

Remind me... in 1996 did you also lose your coach? and your #6, 7, 8, and 9 players in terms of minutes?

I'm officially going to kick anyone who puts IWU in the top 25 for the preseason. They'd only be putting a recognized name in... and some recruits and jv guys who haven't proved anything yet. You don't lose 8 of your 9 contributers and your coach and start out in the top 25, I don't care what you did the season before, or how many games your school has won historically.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Aw,

Picky, picky!

You're right, of course, but how can I begin the intimidation process on any future opponents if you're gonna talk REALITY!

More seriously, I've heard good enough things about the reserves and JV'ers, that I think IWU is still top half in the CCIW, and might even shock people by competing for the title (though that would shock me also).

[woosterbooster]

Just some thoughts:

How far out do DIII and NAIA teams set their non-conference schedules?  Is it just one year, or is it more?  If it's just a year or two, my first thought, simple as it is, was that Steve Moore, knowing Russ and Brady to be gone from Wittenberg and themselves to be loaded, figured that the Scots would win the NCAC's automatic bid easily so could load up on tough non-league games, whether in-region or not, to toughen themselves for the NCAAs.

I wouldn't pick James Cooper as an All-American, certainly not as a first-teamer.  The deeper into the season Wooster went last year, the more opposing teams realized they could take him out of the game by denying him the ball.  It takes determination and perseverence, but it can be done, and will be done again, until he learns to play and move better without the ball.  Maybe Street & Smiths has already talked to him about this and he's promised to do better. :-)

I ran into Coach Moore at the Case Western football game, and, no surprise, he said that Brandon Johnson will be the point guard.  I'm looking for an exceptional season from him, one in which he'll show enough that he might get some preseason All-American honors going into his junior year.  I hope that aside from all the big men recruits is a guard that can step in and get some minutes at the one spot to spell him as I don't think that Cooper or Fulk are really cut out for that role.

[Gregory Sager]

April,

While I agree that Wesleyan should be pre-season #1, you've got the wrong state!

1996: IWU finished 3rd in the country, graduated 4 starters, leaving only junior Bryan Crabtree (soon to be POY).
1997: IWU won the national championship.

2006: IWU finished 3rd in the country, graduated 4 starters, leaving only junior Zach Freeman ( ).
2007: IWU won  .

Chuck, you should just paste the original post from when you first figured this out whenever the mood strikes you to bring up this point again. I mean, heck, you're already wearing me out with it and we're still nine days away from the official start of practice. 

[sac]

quick, someone lookup where UW-Platteville was ranked pre-season the year after Bo Ryan became a Badger. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

April,

While I agree that Wesleyan should be pre-season #1, you've got the wrong state!

1996: IWU finished 3rd in the country, graduated 4 starters, leaving only junior Bryan Crabtree (soon to be POY).
1997: IWU won the national championship.

2006: IWU finished 3rd in the country, graduated 4 starters, leaving only junior Zach Freeman ( ).
2007: IWU won  .

Chuck, you should just paste the original post from when you first figured this out whenever the mood strikes you to bring up this point again. I mean, heck, you're already wearing me out with it and we're still nine days away from the official start of practice. 

Greg,

You seem to wear out rather quickly!

Unless you can show otherwise, I believe this was only its second iteration (at most third) 

And I think its intriguing, even if you don't!