MBB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[goscots]

There seems to be an error with the NCAC standings. Earlham should be 3-3, not 2-4, (plus the results of the OWU-Earlham game are not posted yet).

[Titan Q]

I'm looking forward to seeing the poll when it comes out.

This is an interesting situation.  Last week ONU was 4 and Wooster was 5.  Since ONU lost, it will be interesting to see how ONU and Wooster rank, given that Wooster lost to ONU.

TigerFan_73

I think you saw that scenario play out last week.  Coming into that poll, ONU was #2 and Wooster was #4, 64 points behind ONU (64 points=about 2.5 places on the average ballot).  ONU lost at home to Capital by 11 (and won at Muskingum by 12), while Wooster won their only game by 29 over Denison.  In the subsequent poll, ONU fell to #4 and pushed Wooster down a spot to #5, with Wooster losing 28 points (i.e. just over one position per ballot).  My years of poll-watching tell me that what happened was that voters felt like they had to drop ONU, but that they had to keep ONU ahead of Wooster because of the still-fresh head-to-head result; thus Wooster loses points in week where they blasted their only opponent.  However, ONU ended up with a margin over Wooster of just one point. 

Now this week ONU splits another pair of games, winning at Wilmington by 1 and losing at JCU by 2, while Wooster wins twice over inferior competition (a bit of a struggle with Allegheny, and a massacre of Wabash).  I think the voters will have no trouble sliding ONU behind Wooster, with Wooster moving up to #4.  In fact, I think most voters will have Wooster written in somewhere in the top 5 or 6 before even considering where to put ONU.  They'll remember that the Wooster/ONU result was not decisive, and was instead a back-and-forth game all night, with ONU's final margin of 7 being their largest of the game.  In other words, a "forgiveable" loss to some extent.

This week's conundrum will be what to do about ONU vis-a-vis Wittenberg, a team the PBs beat by 17 in December.  The drop I expect ONU to take will put them in a position where the average voter will have to decide if they should keep them above Witt based on that Dec. victory.  I think that's what will happen, but mostly because Witt's recent results (OT at Kenyon, 11-point win at Earlham) don't inspire much confidence that Witt has improved since their loss to ONU.  I think many of the voters will be reluctant to push Witt up too high until they see how the Tigers do at OWU on Wednesday.  Furthermore, no matter how it all shakes out, ONU will still have two victories over top 10 teams, while Wittenberg is 0-2 against the top 10.  I think that'll be enough to keep the Polar Bears slightly ahead of the Tigers in the new poll.  But the PBs are definitely on probation! 

When all is said and done this week, I expect the top 10 to shake out this way:

1. UW-Stevens Point
2. Amherst
3. St. Thomas
4. Wooster
5. Va. Wesleyan...spots 3-5 very close
6. Mississippi College
7. Ohio Northern
8. Wittenberg
9. Whitworth...spots 6-9 very close
10. Elmhurst
11. Hope...spots 10-11 very close

Just one poll-watcher's opinion, and I hasten to point out that I don't have a very good track record with predictions like this! 

Last week I had:

1 UW-Stevens Point
2 Amherst
3 Ohio Northern
4 Wooster
5 St. Thomas

And this week:

1 UW-Stevens Point
2 Amherst
3 Virginia Wesleyan
4 Wooster
5 Mississippi College


Just one voter's ballot.

[lancer98]

I have some eligibility left.....can I try out for the Wabash basketball team? 

[WillieBrown]

Those shooting stats from owu's bigs are amazing. Definitely need to get out there on them. Chojacki has never been able to score on Borchers on the blocks and I don't even know if Rudegair bothers going down on the block. Rudegair will probably be a good matchup for Hemenway who is faster and more athletic. Owu has a good team but Witt matches up too well with them. Will be a close game til the 15:00 point of the second half where the thoroughbreads separate themselves. Witt -5.5 at OWU. Borchers- 23 pts 14 rebs, Bowen 13 pts (4-6 from 3 pt, 1-4 fts) Denbow 6 pts, 5 ast, 1 to.

[David Collinge]

When all is said and done this week, I expect the top 10 to shake out this way:

1. UW-Stevens Point
2. Amherst
3. St. Thomas
4. Wooster
5. Va. Wesleyan...spots 3-5 very close
6. Mississippi College
7. Ohio Northern
8. Wittenberg
9. Whitworth...spots 6-9 very close
10. Elmhurst
11. Hope...spots 10-11 very close

Just one poll-watcher's opinion, and I hasten to point out that I don't have a very good track record with predictions like this! 

All is now said and done, and it shook out this way:
1. UW-Stevens Point
2. Amherst
3. St. Thomas
4. Wooster
5. Va. Wesleyan...28 points separate #3 from #5
   ....so far, so good...
6. Wittenberg
7. Mississippi College
8. Ohio Northern...not close to the above two, 46 points behind MC and 56 behind Witt
9. Elmhurst
10. Whitworth...a full 105 points behind Witt
11. Hope...just 4 behind #10, but I had the wrong #10! 27 points behind Elmhurst

Not too bad, by my usual standards.  It looks to me like Ohio Northern is not just on probation, they're on double secret probation.  

[Pat Coleman]

(plus the results of the OWU-Earlham game are not posted yet).

Not every school is overly prompt about posting scores on the site. Every school has a username and password. If tey don't post scores, we'll get them eventually but since we offer schools the ability to post news releases and publicize their programs, we'd hope they'd post the scores. Only takes about 45 seconds per game.

[wooscotsfan]

Earlham College is not very prompt about posting scores after games....even on their own Earlham website!  Sometimes, it can be several days after a game before the final score (and boxscore) makes it on to their website.  

When Earlham plays a NCAC home game, I usually find the final score on that game day either by checking the opponent's website (last Saturday's result vs OWU was on the Bishops website) or on an internet national wire release listing lots of game scores.    Sometimes, an Earlham poster like Billy Pilgrim helps out by posting the final score.  

[wooscotsfan]

Nice to see Wooster move back up to #4 in the Top 25 poll this week.  

While the Top 25 poll is a good discussion topic, let's not forget that a team's in-region wins/losses and their strength of schedule (QOWI) will be the most important factors in determining qualifiers, seeds and hosts for the NCAA tournament (in addition to the automatic bid at the conference tourney).

Therefore, it is very important for Wooster, Wittenberg and Ohio Wesleyan to minimize their in-region losses if they want to qualify for the NCAA tournament as an at-large team (Pool C) and to increase their chances of receiving a higher seed and/or hosting games in the big dance.

Fortunately, the OAC teams are already beating each other up so all of their post season contenders (e.g Ohio Northern, others) already have 3 or more in-region losses.

However in the MIAA, Hope looks to have the inside track on being the highest seed out of all the Great Lakes teams because they have no in-region losses to this point.  Their only two losses were to Carthage and Wheaton from the Midwest region (considered by the NCAA to be out of region games).

So if the season ended today, Hope would receive a higher seed from the NCAA than Wooster and Wittenberg despite the fact that the Dutchmen are currently ranked lower than both NCAC teams in the D3 Hoops poll.

There are still lots of games left to be played but my basic point is that the NCAA selection committee does not select and seed teams the same way that we view them in the Top 25 poll.

GO SCOTS!  

[smedindy]

Do NOT confuse the QOWI with an actual strength of schedule, please...thanks!

[David Collinge]

Hope/Wheaton falls within the 200-mile rule and is in-region, so Hope does have a regional loss.  At this point I would guess that Wooster, with a moderately tough schedule (according to the NCAA rules) and just one regional loss, or Lake Erie, which is 10-0 in-region, would be #1 if the regional rankings came out today.  Wooster is 8-1 in-region, Hope is 5-1, Witt is 8-2, ONU is 7-3 but would have a great QoWI, JCU 8-4, B-W 7-3, Heidelberg 10-4, Adrian 5-1, Lake Erie 10-0, Bethany 9-3, Westminster 8-1.

The team schedule pages on this site indicate regional games with a black dot.  Here is Hope's page.

Wooster and perhaps especially Wittenberg need the OAC to stop beating each other up, IMHO.  Wooster's home loss to ONU is already very damaging, and if ONU keeps sliding, it could cost the Scots another 2 QoWI points.  Both Woo and Witt would be well-served at this point if ONU would right the ship.  Witt would benefit from a strong finish by Capital as well. 

[sac]

So if the season ended today, Hope would receive a higher seed from the NCAA than Wooster and Wittenberg despite the fact that the Dutchmen are currently ranked lower than both NCAC teams in the D3 Hoops poll.

Not likely to happen wooscotsfan for 2 reasons

#1 if hosting an NCAA game comes down to the Hope men or Hope women this year, the ladies will get the nod.  So yeah Hope might be a higher seed but they wouldn't be at home.

#2 Hope QOWI is going to be dreadfull, currently Hope is 5-1 in-region:

In-region records of oppents
Calvin 2-4  win away  11 points
Wheaton 5-4 loss away 5 points
Kalamazoo 1-9 win away 9 point
Olivet 1-6 win home  8 points
Albion  3-5 win home 8 points
Calvin 2-4  win away 11 points
QOWI = 8.67

Remaining MIAA opponents
Adrian 5-1
Alma 1-4
Tri State 4-2

Its not likely Hope's MIAA opponent in-region are going to improve a whole lot, and unless Wheaton gets real hot in the tough CCIW that game will never be more than 7 points.

The MIAA's getting one team and it will be the MIAA Tournament Champion, it will be very difficult for Hope or anyone else to qualify based on QOWI and in-region records as a Pool C.

[wooscotsfan]

Smeds -- you're right that the Quality of Wins Index is really a power rating and not a strength of schedule.  It doesn't change my basic point though that the NCAA selection process and the Top 25 poll are two very different animals.  

David -- good catch on Wheaton being within the 200 mile radius for Hope so Wooster may be ahead of them at this point in the NCAA rankings.   The OAC losses are a double edged sword as you note.  Losses by some OAC teams that have not played Woo or Witt (e.g. B-W or JCU) will push them down in the NCAA's rankings and help the NCAC teams while other OAC losses (e.g. ONU) could reduce QoWI points for Woo/Witt as you observed.

Sac -- from a Wooster perspective, it is good to hear that the Hope women are more likely to host than the Hope men.  There are still plenty of games left so it will be interesting to see how the in-region losses compare at the end of the season.  I think the Hope men have a good shot at running the MIAA schedule and finishing the season with only 1 in-region loss.  That scenario could help to offset a lower QoWI for Hope if other Great Lakes teams have more in-region losses?

 

[smedindy]

But the QOWI is not even a power rating, since it's all about the region and takes no differnece in between the other regions.

It's a heinous measurement...and I like measurements.

[hodgistheman]

Congrats to Denisons Dan Hodgkinson on being the NCAC Player of the Week.
He has led them to back to back wins. THey now may have a shot at being in the top 5 of the NCAC. If they do that Hodgkinson has to be a real consideration for Player of the Year.


Hodg for President
Izzo for VP

Hodgis the man out

[pennstghs]

here we go again.......................haha