MBB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[David Collinge]

Let's take a closer look at this.

Remaining games for teams in 4-10 positions:
Allegheny (3-4): at Witt, Hiram, Kenyon, at Woo, at OWU, at Oberlin, Denison, at Hiram, Witt
Kenyon (3-4): Wabash, at Woo, at 'Gheny, at Hiram, Earlham, at Denison, Oberlin, Woo, at Wabash
Earlham (3-4): Oberlin, at Denison, Woo, at Witt, at Kenyon, Wabash, at OWU, Denison, at Oberlin
Hiram (3-4): Denison, at 'Gheny, OWU, Kenyon, Oberlin, at Woo, at Witt, 'Gheny, at Denison
Wabash (2-5): at Kenyon, Witt, Oberlin, at OWU, Denison, at Earlham, Woo, at Witt, Kenyon
Denison (2-5): at Hiram, Earlham, at Witt, at Oberlin, at Wabash, Kenyon, at 'Gheny, at Earlham, Hiram
Oberlin (2-5): at Earlham, OWU, at Wabash, Denison, at Hiram, 'Gheny, at Kenyon, at OWU, Earlham

Null hypothesis:  each team loses all games left with OWU, Witt, Woo, and all road games.  Result:
Allegheny 6-10
Kenyon 6-10
Earlham 6-10
Hiram 7-9
Wabash 5-11
Denison 5-11
Oberlin 5-11
So the only team with a schedule advantage, however minimal, is Hiram.

Hypothesis 1: teams lose all games to OWU, Witt, Woo; do five points better in home rematches; and split home/home with teams they haven't faced yet.  Result:
Allegheny: 6-10; compared to null hypothesis, loses to Denison at home, but wins at Oberlin
Kenyon: 6-10; loses to Earlham at home, but wins at Hiram
Earlham: 6-10; loses to Wabash at home, but wins at Kenyon
Hiram: 6-10; loses to Kenyon at home
Wabash: 6-10; wins at Earlham
Denison: 7-9; wins at Oberlin and Allegheny
Oberlin: 3-13; loses to Denison and Allegheny at home
I hope that adds up.   If so, slight advantage to Denison under this method.

Hypothesis 2: Anyone who can pull off a win vs. one of the three top teams will have a leg up on the others.  That's more likely to happen at home.
Home games remaining with OWU, Witt, Woo:
Allegheny: 1 (Witt)
Kenyon: 1 (Woo)
Earlham: 1 (Woo)
Hiram: 1 (OWU)
Wabash: 2 (Witt, Woo)
Denison: 0
Oberlin: 1 (OWU)
Slight advantage to Wabash under this method, if you could call it a "method."

Hypothesis 3: On the other hand, your chances are a lot better against the bottom 7 than against the top 3. 
Games remaining with bottom 7:
Allegheny: 5 (ouch!)
Kenyon: 7
Earlham: 6
Hiram: 6
Wabash: 5 (and already a game out of 4th place--double ouch)
Denison: 8 ()
Oberlin: 7
So this "method" slightly favors Kenyon over Denison (because Kenyon has a one-game lead on Denison, and presently holds the tiebreaker.)

Conclusion:  I don't have any idea who's going to finish 4th. 

[Li'l Giant]

In other words, in the eyes of the rest of the NCAC, Wooster and Wittenberg are both the evil empire. 8)

DING! DING! DING!

Null hypothesis:

I just had a flashback of Bert Barreto,  Frank Howland showing me JMP and Excel spreadsheets.

Wally, I need a beer. 

[billy_pilgrim]

Made the trip to Crawfordsville last night and got nothing out of the trip.

Well, nothing except for this gem from Jeff Justus which I may or may not use as my signature for the near future.

During a timeout in the first half when Earlham had turned the ball over by being a bunch of girls on drives to the basket

"There's no energy. What is it with you guys? I don't get it. You win one game against a decent team and then you think you just have to show up to win on the road? Now I know why Bob Knight gets caught on film hitting kids on the chin!

[jscwittfan]

Let's take a closer look at this.

You're too damn smart for your own good...

"There's no energy. What is it with you guys? I don't get it. You win one game against a decent team and then you think you just have to show up to win on the road? Now I know why Bob Knight gets caught on film hitting kids on the chin!

Is there somewhere we can nominate this for Quote of the Year??  Anywhere?

[pennstghs]

i think some of the quotes bill brown used during the loss last night would be considered bob knight terminology lol. he was def. not happy with the performance

[David Collinge]

How's this for parity:
Referring to my (for lack of a better word) "analysis" above, in the null hypothesis, a 6-10 team finishes fourth and hosts a first-round tourney game vs. another 6-10 team, which guarantees that a 6-10 team makes the semifinals.  However, in hypothesis 1, which is only slightly different (add 5 points to home teams), a 6-10 team finishes 9th and misses the tournament.   

8+ wins=4th place, almost for sure, but you'd have to go at least 5-4 down the stretch to get there, and that's going to be tough
7 wins=definitely in, and good shot at 4th; at least one and maybe two teams will win 7 or 8
6 wins=very probably in but probably not hosting
5 wins and below=probably going to Wooster or going home

In other words, every game is crucial for this group, and every buzzer-beating desparation heave could spell the difference between staying home to host a tourney game and just plain staying home.

In that scenario, I think I want a real horse on my team, someone who can carry a team to a victory that they maybe didn't deserve.  Denison, Earlham, and Oberlin (now that Spencer is back) each have a horse.  Kenyon and Allegheny have players who can step up.  I'm not so sure about Hiram and Wabash.

I'd also want a coach who is a good gametime strategist.  I'm not going to get into that, because I don't like to go negative ("he's a good coach and he isn't"), and besides I don't know enough about the coaches for the non-"W" teams to have an informed opinion.

[wally_wabash]

Null hypothesis:

I just had a flashback of Bert Barreto,  Frank Howland showing me JMP and Excel spreadsheets.

Wally, I need a beer. 

Oh man...an Econ 75 reference.  Now I need a beer.   

In that scenario, I think I want a real horse on my team, someone who can carry a team to a victory that they maybe didn't deserve.  Denison, Earlham, and Oberlin (now that Spencer is back) each have a horse.  Kenyon and Allegheny have players who can step up.  I'm not so sure about Hiram and Wabash.

Let's not forget about Andrew Zimmer at Wabash.  He's unquestionably the go to guy for Wabash this year and as we saw from last night's 35/9 performance, he can take a game over.  We've seen some flashes of this from him in his first couple of seasons and he's starting really assert himself this season, particularly after Simkus took leave.  Zimmer is fifth in the league in scoring, third in rebounds, seventh in FG percentage, and first in blocked shots.  He's bringing it at both ends of the court and if he has the mind to put the team on his shoulders, I think Wabash can finish strong and get in the top half of the league. 

The point about parity is spot on.  Anybody from 4-10 in the league isn't safe from anybody else who is 4-10.  I think we're going to see some wacky tiebreakers pulled out to sort out the seeding for the tournament next month. 

[pennstghs]

yes it is great to get a 4 seed in the conference tournament and if you survive your first round game against the 5 seed who do you get rewarded with most likely? wooster-that doesn't sound like much of a prize if you ask me...........

It will be lame duck vs Wooster in the first semi this year and then Wittenberg-Ohio Wesleyan yet again

[smedindy]

But you never know until you play the game. Every year we see a low seed in a conference tourney rise up and knock off a team that was supposed to cruise through.

[wally_wabash]

yes it is great to get a 4 seed in the conference tournament and if you survive your first round game against the 5 seed who do you get rewarded with most likely? wooster-that doesn't sound like much of a prize if you ask me...........

Just getting to the semis for any of the 4-10 teams this year would be a prize.  Is drawing Wooster in the semis a good deal?  No, but when is it ever going to be a good time for one of these teams to play Wooster?  If you're going to win this tournament, you're going to have to beat Wooster at some point.

[David Collinge]

Anyway, your sole validation can't be just winning championships.  If it were, there'd be no point in having varsity swimming in any town not beginning with a G.

You play for the thrill of competition, for the pride in representing your school, and especially for the love of the game, manifested in playing the best that you can play.  There isn't a team or a player in this conference who wouldn't rather lose to Wooster and finish fourth than lose to the fourth-place team and finish fifth.

[smedindy]

There have been times when it's been a clusterflop between Kenyon, Oberlin and Hiram for the #8 seed, and I'm sure that each of those programs fought like hell to extend its season for one more game when all is said and done.

[goscots]

With OWU defeating Witt on Wednesday they currently hold the distinction of having a winning streak against both Wooster and Witt.

So the trivia question of the night is - What NCAC school was the last team to do this? (I have the answer and it's not too hard to guess).

[David Collinge]

Ohio Northern and JCU both have a current leg up on the W's, but thank the good lord the PBs and Streaks are not in the NCAC. 

As for NCAC team, I had to look it up so I won't say.  I will say that I thought it would be Team A, or maybe Team B, and it turned out to be Team B--so I didn't guess right. 

[Li'l Giant]

I'm going to make a complete guess that the answer is Earlham.