MBB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[gotigers]

As post season approaches, it is important to keep an eye on the regional win-loss records because that it is one of the key stats used by the NCAA selection committee.

Top 15 Great Lakes Regional Records thru 1/20 results:

Lake Erie (AMCC) 12-0
Wooster (NCAC) 10-1
Hope (MIAA) 7-1
Westminster (PrAC) 10-2 (includes Marietta win not marked as in-region)
Wittenberg (NCAC) 9-3
Tri-State (MIAA) 6-2
John Carroll (OAC) 10-4
Bethany (PrAC) 10-4
Ohio Northern (OAC) 8-4
Baldwin-Wallace (OAC) 8-4
Heidelberg (OAC) 11-5
Penn State-Behrend (AMCC) 9-5
Ohio Wesleyan (NCAC) 8-5
Carnegie Mellon (UAA) 8-5
Calvin (MIAA) 4-4

Obviously, the QoWI rating for each team will also play a big role in the NCAA selections/seedings but I thought these regional records were interesting.

so what is the QoWI and what does it have to do with the rankings?
also i've hard mixed reviews, i wanna hear from someone who was there, did wooster get lucky with their win or did OWU just not keep up with the scots.
i kno there not in the ncac but is ohio northerns quick start just that or have they just been a little bit of a rut lately?

[David Collinge]

Gotigers, you've heard from several people who were at the Wooster/OWU game:  Wooster Booster, cmhscots, and I were there, at least.

QoWI is the Quality of Wins Index, a measurement (of questionable validity) attempting to add a strength-of-schedule component to the selection process.  As this is a (very) Frequently Asked Question, you can find out about it in the site's FAQ section.

I've done a brute force QoWI calculation for the top 7 teams on wsf's list.  (Tri-State is a provisional school and is ineligible for the NCAA tournament.)  [EDIT: added ONU per cmhscots' suggestion.]  Here's what I have:
Lake Erie 10.50...They have a 14-point win over Bethany, a 13 and 2 12's
Wooster 10.27...One 15-pointer (at Witt), two 13's and a 12
Hope 9.88...hurt by the weakness of the MIAA this year; 3 13-pointers
Westminster 9.25...weak schedule with two bad losses (2, 4) offsetting 15-point win at Bethany this week
Wittenberg 9.83...tough schedule: several good wins, and losses don't hurt so much
JCU 10.50...very tough sched. with a 14-pointer, four 13's, and two 12's; losses are 5, 6, 7, and 7
Bethany 8.71...lots of middling results, all games between 4 and 11 points
Ohio Northern 10.25...like JCU, very tough schedule, but two fewer wins.  Has two 15's (Woo, 'Berg) and a 14 (Witt)

[David Collinge]

QoWI breaks opponents into four categories: 
* win percentage of .667 and higher contributes 6 QoWI points
* win percentage of .500 and higher contributes 4 QoWI points
* win percentage of .333 and higher contributes 2 QoWI points
* win percentage below .333 contributes bubkes

(On top of that you get a point for playing on the road, including neutral locations, and you get 8 points for a win.  That makes the maximum a 15-point win: win {8} on the road {1} over a .667+ team {6}).

Those zero-point opponents can really kill your QoWI, and have haunted Wooster over the years.  You can use these strata to take a very quick and dirty look at schedule strength. 

Team	6-pt opps	4-pt opps	2-pt opps	0-pt opps
Lake Erie	1	3	3	5
Wooster	2	3	2	4
Hope	0	4	1	3
Westminster	1	3	4	4
Wittenberg	3	4	2	3
JCU	4	7	3	0
Bethany	2	2	7	3
ONU	5	4	3	0

That's right; JCU and ONU have played NO 0-point opponents, and JCU has played 11 regional games against opponents at .500 or better (ONU has 9.)  On the other hand, LEC has played FIVE zeroes.  That's how JCU can have the same QoWI as Lake Erie, despite being just 10-4 in region vs. LEC's 12-0.

[gotigers]

thanks. i feel more knowledgable in the area of QoWI.

[David Collinge]

So combining all of that, I'd say the regional rankings if released today would look like this:

1. Lake Erie (1.000 regional win pct., 10.50 QoWI)
2. Wooster (.909, 10.27)
3. JCU (.714, 10.50)
4. Hope (.875, 9.88)
5. Wittenberg (.750, 9.83)
6. Westminster (.833, 9.25)

[imderekpoe]

Tri-State is a provisional school and is ineligible for the NCAA tournament.

To further complicate things, although Tri-State is a provisional team and not eligible for the tourney themselves, as a 3rd-year provisional games against them do count in the 'Primary Criteria' used in the NCAA selection process.

Here's a link to the DIII Men's Baseketball Championship Handbook that describes in minute detail every aspect of the tournament:  http://www.ncaa.org/library/handbooks/basketball/2007/2007_d3_m_basketball_handbook.pdf

David - Did you happen to calculate Ohio Northern's QOWI?  The loss to Marietta had to put a big whammy on their's.

[woosterbooster]

I heard some very bad news today, that Tim Vandervaart's wrist is indeed broken, and that he's almost certainly through for the season.  A terrible break for both Tim and the Scots.  They'll miss him badly, and will have to hope that one or two of the freshmen can step in and play maybe before they're quite ready.

[David Collinge]

David - Did you happen to calculate Ohio Northern's QOWI?  The loss to Marietta had to put a big whammy on their's.

I hadn't, but I added them to the above.  And you're right; their QoWI was 10.91 before they went to 'Etta.

[kiltedbryan]

QoWI breaks opponents into four categories: 
* win percentage of .667 and higher contributes 6 QoWI points
* win percentage of .500 and higher contributes 4 QoWI points
* win percentage of .333 and higher contributes 2 QoWI points
* win percentage below .333 contributes bubkis

(On top of that you get a point for playing on the road, including neutral locations, and you get 8 points for a win.  That makes the maximum a 15-point win: win {8} on the road {1} over a .667+ team {6}).

Those zero-point opponents can really kill your QoWI, and have haunted Wooster over the years.  You can use these strata to take a very quick and dirty look at schedule strength. 

Team	6-pt opps	4-pt opps	2-pt opps	0-pt opps
Lake Erie	1	3	3	5
Wooster	2	3	2	4
Hope	0	4	1	3
Westminster	1	3	4	4
Wittenberg	3	4	2	3
JCU	4	7	3	0
Bethany	2	2	7	3

That's right; JCU has played NO 0-point opponents, and has played 11 regional games against opponents at .500 or better.  On the other hand, LEC has played FIVE zeroes.  That's how JCU can have the same QoWI as Lake Erie, despite  being just 10-4 in region vs. LEC's 12-0.

Thanks for this post, David.  Your "strata" model helps make sense of the 15 different possible QoWI situations.

[David Collinge]

Thanks for this post, David.  Your "strata" model helps make sense of the 15 different possible QoWI situations.

Sixteen...don't forget there's a zero-point game as well (lose at home to a sub-.333 team).  Oberlin's been specializing in these games for years.
You're welcome. 

Tough news for Tim V.  I hate to see a career end off the floor. 

[kiltedbryan]

Thanks for this post, David.  Your "strata" model helps make sense of the 15 different possible QoWI situations.

Sixteen...don't forget there's a zero-point game as well (lose at home to a sub-.333 team).  Oberlin's been specializing in these games for years.
You're welcome. 

Tough news for Tim V.  I hate to see a career end off the floor. 

Yeah, I'll blame Wooster's public school system for teaching me to count starting with 1 instead of 0.   

[sac]

Nice work DC!

Lake Erie has a real shot at having an unbeaten in-region record which could bring up some interesting hosting issues.  Does the AMCC have a tournament, if so root hard for Erie, I can't imagine 2 teams from that conference makeing this region....ugly.


Let me also pass on my best wishes on a speedy recovery for VanderVaart, hopefullly he's a fast healer, and most importantly doesn't need surgery.  I imagine you might get him back with a deep run in the D3 tournament.  You've got 5 weeks of regular season and conference tournaments, thats kind of borderline for broken bone healing.......though I've never had one.

Interesting that both Witt and Woo have now lost important players, with some key games remaining.  Certainly might throw a little pepper into the NCAC stew.

[wooscotsfan]

So combining all of that, I'd say the regional rankings if released today would look like this:

1. Lake Erie (1.000 regional win pct., 10.50 QoWI)
2. Wooster (.909, 10.27)
3. JCU (.714, 10.50)
4. Hope (.875, 9.88)
5. Wittenberg (.750, 9.83)
6. Westminster (.833, 9.25)

David -- thanks for the good work on the QoWI calculations and your estimated regional rankings look reasonable to me.   k+

IF Lake Erie is indeed #1 when the first regional rankings are released, it will demonstrate once again the weaknesses and limitations of the NCAA selection methodology.  Lake Erie lost by 36 points (to Wittenberg) in the first round of the NCAA tourney last year and they actually lost 3 starters from that team.  Hard to believe that Lake Erie is that much better this year.

The AMCC is a cupcake conference and my guess is that Lake Erie would in 4th place if they played in the NCAC right now (behind Woo, Witt, OWU) and somewhere between 5th and 7th place if they played in the OAC.

I think that the contending Great Lakes teams better hope that someone in the AMCC knocks off Lake Erie before the end of the season or we may see Lake Erie hosting a NCAA tournament game(s).

[smedindy]

This is why the QoWI is a sham and a fraud - by concentrating on records IN region, you can pile up the points by playing the decent teams of weak conferences. Heck, ask the NESCAC all about that!

[Gregory Sager]

You play for the thrill of competition, for the pride in representing your school, and especially for the love of the game

I thought you played to impress the chicks.

excerpted from "My New Flirting Technique is Unstoppable" by Gregory Sager, available at better bookstores nationwide.

Does that mean the ones where the patrons aren't all wearing trenchcoats?