MBB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[pennstghs]

and no that isnt just the wind blowing snow drifts outside-its the lake erie chances of hosting gone out the window i believe....

[kiltedbryan]

scotsbrod you CAN'T use that fact against Wittenberg that they lost to Ohio Northern and Capital beat them because Wittenberg  BEAT Capital earlier in the year right before Christmas in 2OT.......Of course before that didnt i say that game might be hard to gauge because we didnt know if capital was any good but now that we look at that game we can say that Wittenberg should gain from that win....

I'm well aware that Wittenberg beat Capital on the road in 2 overtimes.  I mentioned as much in my post.  Wittenberg does gain from that win, earning (currently) 15 QoWI points for it.  It's part of why Witt's QoWI is better than Wooster's, even though Wit has another loss.  I'm not trying to use Witt or Woo's loss to ONU against either of them; I was trying to point out that JCU and Capital can give teams like Wooster and Wittenberg everything they can handle.  The closest direct observations of that are Wittenberg's 2 OT victory (hardly a blowout) and Cap's loss to OWU.  The next closest I thought of were ONU's wins over Woo and Witt along with both Capital and JCU sweeping ONU.

[wally_wabash]

and no that isnt just the wind blowing snow drifts outside-its the lake erie chances of hosting gone out the window i believe....

Didn't we cover this?  Lake Erie isn't eligible to host a sectional round of the NCAA tournament because they don't have adequate arena seating.  Check page 7.

1-loss (regionally) LEC probably gets a home game in the first or second round. 

[David Collinge]

In JCU and Capital's defense, they have each beaten Ohio Northern twice this year.  Neither Wooster nor Wittenberg has done that once. 

We tend to focus on regional win % and QoWI score when thinking about regional rankings and seedings, but those are only two of the five primary criteria the regional committee uses for ranking and seeding.  The other three are head-to-head results, results vs. common regional opponents, and in-region results vs. ranked teams.  Neither Wooster nor Witt has played JCU, so you can chuck that one for now.  But the other two break in favor of JCU vs. the NCAC powers because of what scotsbrod pointed out, which I have quoted above.

So JCU has the better QoWI, has better results than the W's against the common regional opponent Ohio Northern, and has two in-region wins over a ranked opponent (ONU) that are losses for Woo and Witt.  That's an advantage in three of the four applicable primary criteria.  Taking this into account, I am not surprised to see JCU ahead of Wooster and Wittenberg.

[pennstghs]

billy- i guess a penn state branch had to do the dirty work and knock off lake erie haha-hey they almost b eat the buckeyes

[sac]

5. Hope 12-3 in-region

So I take it that the magic ferry running across Lake Michigan in the dead of winter still exists for Hope/Carthage to be an in-region game?

[billy_pilgrim]

billy- i guess a penn state branch had to do the dirty work and knock off lake erie haha-hey they almost b eat the buckeyes

Maybe Behrend has a couple of good, young players who could transfer over to University Park for their final two seasons. Aside from the lack of talent, quickness and size that has hindered the Penn State-University Park team over the course of the last six years, they also have lacked depth.

As for the Quakers, it's Senior Night for a couple of 1,000 point scorers, LaRon Henry, and Billy_Pilgrim's former roommate, Markous Jewett. I feel bad I'm missing this one, but I am really hoping they can win the next two, earn the first round home game, and then I can make the trip to Richmond to see them play one last time.

[ScotsFan]

.4 is NOT fairly modest. .4 multiplied by a 25-game season means five games against a team at the next stratum up in record.

In JCU and Capital's defense, they have each beaten Ohio Northern twice this year.  Neither Wooster nor Wittenberg has done that once. 

We tend to focus on regional win % and QoWI score when thinking about regional rankings and seedings, but those are only two of the five primary criteria the regional committee uses for ranking and seeding.  The other three are head-to-head results, results vs. common regional opponents, and in-region results vs. ranked teams.  Neither Wooster nor Witt has played JCU, so you can chuck that one for now.  But the other two break in favor of JCU vs. the NCAC powers because of what scotsbrod pointed out, which I have quoted above.

So JCU has the better QoWI, has better results than the W's against the common regional opponent Ohio Northern, and has two in-region wins over a ranked opponent (ONU) that are losses for Woo and Witt.  That's an advantage in three of the four applicable primary criteria.  Taking this into account, I am not surprised to see JCU ahead of Wooster and Wittenberg.

This is what I was talking about when I made my post about not being surprised by JCU's jump.  Do they have more 'in-region' losses and a lower win percentage than the W's?  Yes.  BUT, they also have more WINS than the W's over teams in the upper stratum of the criteria for figuring QoWI.

Besides, it's still too early to start panincking for the W's.  Whomever takes care of business among Witt and Woo will have an excellent shot at hosting.  But, if JCU does the improbable and runs the table winning the OAC regular season and tournament titles, I would have to say they deserve at least strong consideration to host. 

As far as Wooster is concerned, all they can do is worry about themselves.  Another loss and their hopes of hosting are gone.  Same goes for Wittenberg.  Which is why it would be nice for the W's to oblige and win out to set up their rubber match in the NCAC tournament finals for what could be a winner take all game like last year where the winner gets to host and the loser hits the road.  If you thought the atmosphere was electric at Timken back on the 3rd of February, imagine what it will be like in a week and a half if that scenario plays itself out!!! 8)

[pennstghs]

yeah Scotsfan i will actually be able to go to this game because i remembered to ask off work. That game could be as electric as the 1 vs 2 matchup at Witt last year but especially of what could be on the line. That said Witt has 4 important games before then with Wabash, Allegheny, who knows, probably OWU and then Wooster. Who knows what could happen.

[ChicagoHopeNut]

This is what I was talking about when I made my post about not being surprised by JCU's jump.  Do they have more 'in-region' losses and a lower win percentage than the W's?  Yes.  BUT, they also have more WINS than the W's over teams in the upper stratum of the criteria for figuring QoWI.

I agree that there is no reason for the W's to panic at this point. And the more I read about QoWI the more I understand JCU's jump. But in addition to JCU's wins against some upper stratum teams they have losses to Heidelberg and Wilmington, not exactly upper strata, although they are both above .500.  That said I just think too much reliance is placed on QoWI in determining regional rankings but as long as the W's keep winning they are in so it shouldn't matter.

[Li'l Giant]

Is the weather situation better today? I'm looking out my office window and seeing a bright sunny day with an expected high in the upper 40s. What's it like up there?

[wally_wabash]

Cold and clear in the Heartland today LG.  I'd expect that teams can travel today. 

Nice with the Augie Garrido quote, btw.  Augie rules. 

[jscwittfan]

Same here in Springfield - cold, but nothing new falling.  However, the wind is whipping stuff around pretty good.  As far as people coming to the games tonight, be careful - there will hardly be ANY parking because of how the plows leave the snow on the road, and many of the sidewalks around campus are still covered in snow and ice (I guess only a select few get the privilege of being cleaned).  So, all-in-all, if coming tonight, be careful.

Also, this just in:

Anybody in Springfield/Clark County planning on tuning into WUSO 89.1 FM for tonight's games will be out of luck - at least on the radio side.

I just talked to WUSO's General Manager, and he told me that the station's transmitter is stored in such a "poorly-constructed building" on the top of one of our dorms, that the snow leaked through and did some serious damage.  Therefore, there is nothing being sent across WUSO right now (or probably for the next few days/weeks) until they can get things fixed.

Thankfully, that transmitter has nothing to do with WUSO's internet feed, so anybody hoping to listen to the games tonight (and watch the men's game) will have to do so strictly on the internet.

[Mr. Ypsi]

In JCU and Capital's defense, they have each beaten Ohio Northern twice this year.  Neither Wooster nor Wittenberg has done that once. 

We tend to focus on regional win % and QoWI score when thinking about regional rankings and seedings, but those are only two of the five primary criteria the regional committee uses for ranking and seeding.  The other three are head-to-head results, results vs. common regional opponents, and in-region results vs. ranked teams.  Neither Wooster nor Witt has played JCU, so you can chuck that one for now.  But the other two break in favor of JCU vs. the NCAC powers because of what scotsbrod pointed out, which I have quoted above.

So JCU has the better QoWI, has better results than the W's against the common regional opponent Ohio Northern, and has two in-region wins over a ranked opponent (ONU) that are losses for Woo and Witt.  That's an advantage in three of the four applicable primary criteria.  Taking this into account, I am not surprised to see JCU ahead of Wooster and Wittenberg.

David,

Your point regarding the other primary criteria is quite correct, but there is still one mystery: JCU's wins over (and the Ws losses to) ONU all occurred before the FIRST regional rankings.  Why JCU's sudden jump in week two?

If the committee is that sloppy in finally noticing things (and still has Hope's in-region record wrong - they're 12-2, not 12-3), it does not give one a great deal of confidence in pool C selection or game seedings!

Edit: I just realized that one (partial) explanation is that the criterion regarding record against regionally-ranked teams would not apply to the first week, since no one is yet ranked!  But if that is the ONLY reason JCU jumped the Ws, they are either giving that criterion undue influence or the three teams are SO close they could be regarded as 2a, 2b, and 2c rather than 2, 3,  and 4.

[earlhamalum]

[ I feel bad I'm missing this one, but I am really hoping they can win the next two, earn the first round home game, and then I can make the trip to Richmond to see them play one last time.

Come on Billy_ hope is for the weak... but I have to say i'm hoping the same!