MBB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[seinfeld]

Nobody knows what a new player is going to do, especially one that was hurt as a freshmen, but what else are you supposed to go off of if they haven't played in college other than what they did in high school? That's what Wooster is doing with Wickliffe. Maybe he will be no good. I'm just a Wooster fan throwing out some names of players that might be going under the radar this year.

Here is a couple of things I found on Plieman:

Ranked No. 87 in the Ohio Class of 2006: http://www.hoopscooponline.com/members/area12/OhioLocalRankings_1Page4.html

Plus another article on him:
http://www.fanfilemagazine.com/stories_php/05boyspreview.php

Believe he is also the cousin of Jordan Plieman of Wright St.
http://wsuraiders.cstv.com/sports/m-baskbl/mtt/pleiman_jordan00.html

[David Collinge]

As I am not the first to notice, Wooster's 2007-08 team is starting to take shape.  The Scots, three-time defending NCAC Champions (regular season), have to find a way to replace three starters, including an All-American and 2007 NCAC Player of the Year (Tom Port), a second 1,000 point career scorer (Tim Vandervaart), and one of the best three-point shooters in program history (Andy Van Horn.)  The Scots also lost four bench/JV players from a season ago.*  However, the cupboard is far from bare.  Among the returnees are a second-team D3Hoops.com All American and 2006 NCAC Player of the Year (James Cooper), as well as a second-team all-NCAC player (Brandon Johnson).  Collectively, the returning veterans bring with them 62.5% of the offense, 58.9% of the rebounding, and 64.1% of the minutes of a season ago.  These players averaged 55.0 points and 22.2 rebounds per game, a decent base upon which to build.

The Scots list seven first-year players on their pre-season roster, although two of them (Kaleb Reed and Marcus Mitchell) were not in uniform for the intrasquad scrimmage Sunday.  Most of the attention seems to be on 6'5"/195 forward Bryan Wickliffe, an honorable mention All-Ohio player in Div. 1 as a senior at Columbus St. Charles.  As noted, Wickliffe sat out the scrimmage, ostensibly with an injury.  The two frosh who appeared to log the most playing time in the scrimmage were forwards Matt Cameron (6'5"/175) and Ian Franks (6'3"/175), both of whom played aggressively and looked good at times, but clearly would benefit from substantial time in the weight room.  (This advice applies doubly to 6'6"/160 forward Eric Fertig.)  Guard Kevin Truitt (5'11/165) also saw considerable PT, but the depth chart for guards is much more formidable than for frontcourt players, so I expect Truitt will spend the season on the JV squad.

*The non-returning underclassmen are Jake Johnson (transfer to Bridgewater, Va.), Jason Ronyak (transfer to CWRU), Dex Battista (transfer to Grand Valley St.), and Nick Hershberger, whose whereabouts I do not know (seinfeld?).

[seinfeld]

Hershberger is at Muskingum I'm pretty sure. And DC, your observation about Kaleb Reed not playing would make sense, considering he is still on the football team as far as I know, so I'm not sure who Wooster Booster thought was Reed.

[David Collinge]

Graduation losses have ravaged Wittenberg, who returns just 41.5% of its scoring (29.4 ppg), 35.3% of its rebounding (13.0 rpg), and 41.2% of its minutes from a 22-5 squad of a season ago.  Gone are four starters, including All-American and three-time All-NCAC honoree Dane Borchers, the 2007 conference leader in rebounding and blocked shots and fourth-leading scorer.  The lone returning starter is junior guard Gregg Hill (11.6 ppg), the top three-point shooter in conference play last year (.534 in NCAC games, .429 overall).  Hill is joined by four veterans who averaged at least 11 minutes per game last season:  senior wings Brandan Barabino (6'4", 5.8 ppg, 2.7 rpg, the team's top returning rebounder) and Brandon White (6'0", 2.9 ppg, 2.0 rpg), 6'2" junior wing Kevin Murray (3.4 ppg), and 5'8" sophomore G/W David Nowicki (3.2 ppg, 1.5 apg, 1.8 A/TO) who is, aside from Hill, the only returnee to have started any games last season (5 starts).

Consistent with Bill Brown's usual practice, the balance of the varsity roster is not expected to be released until the last possible moment before the season starts.  Witt4ever has posted a couple of articles from the Springfield News-Sun that list the program recruits and suggest two to watch are 6'7"/205 forward Lewis Buzzard (Columbus/Franklin Heights) and 5'10"/160 guard Derrick Hannon (Shawnee). 

While it seems on paper that Wittenberg has considerable rebuilding to do, it should be noted that this is the most successful program in D3 history, one that has won at least 18 games every year under Bill Brown and has not suffered a losing season in over a half-century (8-12 in 1955-56).  I wouldn't be too hasty in writing them off just yet.

[David Collinge]

Hershberger is at Muskingum I'm pretty sure. And DC, your observation about Kaleb Reed not playing would make sense, considering he is still on the football team as far as I know, so I'm not sure who Wooster Booster thought was Reed.

Thanks.  Muskingum hasn't posted a roster as yet, but as they are relatively nearby I manage to catch them two or three times a year;  I look forward to seeing him dominate the OAC.   

Wooster Booster didn't claim to see Reed at the scrimmage; quite the opposite:

Local product Kaleb Reed (Northwestern High School) didn't seem to be there at all.

[seinfeld]

DC,

My bad about Wooster Booster's comment on Reed. At a quick glance I thought he meant he didn't do anything worthwhile at the scrimmage, but instead he noted that Reed just wasn't there.

I don't think you can draw any conclusions whatsoever from early season scrimmages. For proof that what you do as a freshman doesn't dictate what kind of player you become is Tim Vandervaart and Rodney Mitchell, who were both JV players as freshmen.

[woosterbooster]

I think you can tell an awful lot from a scrimmage; it's certainly one of the major reasons that schools partake in them.  I hope that I'm wrong, but I'll stand by my observation that none of the freshmen that saw action this past Saturday will make much of a varsity contribution this season.  Now, that's not saying that some of them won't develop into fine players in a year or two, a la Mitchell and Darth.  It's just that they didn't look, at the moment, ready to play well at this level.

[David Collinge]

Allegheny, fourth place finishers last season at 8-8 (12-13 overall), lost just two senior starters and three role players in the offseason, and returns approximately three quarters of its 2007 productivity for a run at the 2008 NCAC title.  Gone to graduation are all-conference honoree Jimmy Savage (7.7 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.3 apg, 1.8 A/TO) and part-time starter Casey McCloskey (8.2 ppg, 13 starts), but the Gators bring back their top two scorers (Bill Babe [10.7] and Ryan Hollihan [10.6]) and top three rebounders (Hollihan [5.6], George Raftis [4.4], and Ben Torsney [4.2]).  Both Babe, a senior guard, and Hollihan, a 6'8" junior forward, earned all-conference honors last year.  Overall, the Gators return four players with significant starting experience, and eight players who averaged at least 12 minutes per game; collectively, the returnees accounted for 74.1% (52.4 ppg) of last year's offense, 79.8% (26.4) of the rebounding, and 72.4% of the minutes. 

There are no first-years listed on the roster, which may indicate either that there are none in the program (which seems unlikely) or that the roster is still under development (the posted roster is headed "2006-07", but the classes are all updated and last year's seniors are gone).  There are, however, five upperclassmen on the roster who have not been issued uniform numbers and did not log varsity minutes last season.  That brings the total list of upperclassmen to an astonishing 17 players, giving head coach Rob Clune lots of choices even if the recruiting cupboard is bare.  Clune will be joined this season by new assistant coach Matt Drahos, who some may remember was an all-American standout at Bethany College, where he (and his twin brother Mike) were also honored as Academic All-Americans. 

[David Collinge]

Eight of the rosters, or parts thereof, are now posted; only Hiram and Earlham are still displaying 2006-07 rosters on their websites.  Here's the blurbs for these teams as currently posted on the conference website:

Earlham's top returning scorer is Tristain Gregory, who finished last season with a 12.8 scoring average. Eight letterwinners and three starters return for 10th year head coach Jeff Justus. The Quakers look to replace the loss of first-team All-NCAC player Markous Jewett to graduation.

Second team All-NCAC forward Mike McDevitt is the top returnee as he heads into his senior campaign for Hiram. He will have a lot of new players around him as 16 newcomers, including 13 freshman, are on the roster.

I've posted my quick thoughts on each of the eight posted rosters.  Based on those, here's my preliminary guess at the conference race:
1.  Wooster
2.  Ohio Wesleyan
3.  Wabash
4.  Wittenberg
5.  Kenyon
6.  Allegheny
7.  Oberlin
8.  Earlham
9.  Hiram
10. Denison
I find it difficult to pick against Wooster (perhaps showing a bias, perhaps not), especially when they have one confirmed all-American and another (Brandon Johnson) who may get there, but I think the top six teams could each beat the others on any given night.  I am very reluctant to drop Wittenberg all the way to fourth, but it's hard to pick them higher when they appear to be so dependent on first-years I know nothing about.  Hiram and Denison look on paper like programs in disarray; hopefully they'll prove me wrong on the court.  The X-factor in the entire race may be how well Gary Simkus performs in his return to the hardwood.  Overall this may shape up as the best conference race in many years.

[seinfeld]

If it was the case that Wickliffe, Mitchell and Reed didn't play in that first scrimmage, then that is probably three of the top four incoming players, so there is a long way to go before judging the depth of this freshmen group. Hopefully we will see Wickliffe and Mitchell Friday, with Reed shortly after football is over.

[smedindy]

DC -

Instead of 13-3 or 14-2, though, you would think second would have a record of 10-6, perhaps. 11-5 tops.

[David Collinge]

DC -

Instead of 13-3 or 14-2, though, you would think second would have a record of 10-6, perhaps. 11-5 tops.

No, I don't think so.  I think the bottom four, and especially the bottom two, are going to lose a lot of games.  If you think, as I do, that the top 6 teams will be heavily favored to win all of their games with the bottom 4 teams, then your starting point for record construction is 6 wins for Witt, 7 each for Wooster, OWU, Wabash, and Allegheny, and 8 for Kenyon.  To get from there to 10-6 requires a losing record against the other top teams.  Since they can't all have losing records against each other (i.e., gotta be .500 as a group), it follows that I don't think 10-6 will be nearly good enough for 2nd. 

There may, of course, be instances where a bottom-4 team beats a top-6 team, but I think this will only happen a handful of times this year, probably with fingers to spare.  But say this group wins a healthy 20% of its 42 games against the top group.  That's 8 or 9 wins, and it means that the top group wins an aggregate of 61-62 games, an average of more than 10 per team.  That makes it very hard for 10 to be good enough for 2nd place--more likely 3rd or 4th in this scenario.

Rather than 8 or 9 wins by the bottom vs. the top, however, I think it'll be more like 3 or 4.  Accordingly, the way I see it, 8-8 is only going to be good enough for 6th place, and the top three teams will each win at least 12 games.

[smedindy]

I'm going to work this out...

And I did.

I came up with (purely speculation, with history on how some teams get other teams' goats):

Wooster 14-2 (L at Witt and Wabash)
Wabash 11-5 (L at Kenyon, Wooster, Oberlin, Earlham, and OWU)
Witt 10-6 (L Wabash X 2 at Gheny, OWU, Wooster, and Kenyon)
Kenyon 10-6 (L OWU X2, at Wooster, Witt, Oberlin and Hiram)
OWU 10-6 (L Wooster X2, at Wabash, Witt, Earlham, and Gheny)

Allegheny 7-9
Earlham 6-10
Oberlin 5-11
Hiram 4-12
Denison 3-13

[wally_wabash]

I hope you're right about Wooster losing at Wabash, but this seems like a good time to mention that Wabash has never beaten Wooster at Chadwick as a member of the NCAC (Wabash did beat Al Van Wie's Scots at Chadwick in 1975).  History is definitely not on the LG's side. 

[smedindy]

No time like the present, Wally. This may be the year. Of course, Cooper could go insane against us as well.