Pool C

[Pat Coleman]

Those are all arguments that would be great if this were the Division I tournament, but Division III doesn't work that way.

[smedindy]

Stockton has good power numbers and SOS (77th). Rowan is close in power rankings but they have a poor SOS (224). NJ CU's power rankings are lower and their SOS is mediocre.

[smedindy]

4) Is it possible to have a more difficult schedule then La Crosse??? Not to mention they handled Calvin with ease.

Well, yeah.

According to Massey, before the conference tournaments, Illinois Wesleyan, Wheaton, and Augustana all had tougher schedules than LAX.

Calvin got better as the year went along and got hot at the right time.

[diehardfan]

According to Massey, before the conference tournaments... Wheaton... all had tougher schedules than LAX.

Wheaton played 6 teams in the NCAA tournament this year: Rivier (won), Whitworth (lost), Augustana (lost x2), Chicago (lost), Calvin (won) and Hope (won). And then we play in the toughest conference statistically to boot. Talk about a tough schedule!!!

I guess it should be noted that all our losses were close, and two of our wins were blowouts... Unfortunately, our record against those teams was 3-4!

[HopeConvert]

Teams that made it a head of La Crosse that I don't understand...

Hope
record vs 20 win teams: 0-0
record vs 18-19 win teams: 1-2
teams faced with 9 or fewer wins: 6 (6-0)

Guilford
record vs 20 win teams: 2-2
record vs 18-19 win teams: 2-0
teams faced with 9 or fewer wins: 6 (6-0)

Stevens
record vs 20 win teams: 0-1
record vs 17-19 win teams: 2-4
teams faced with 9 or fewer wins: 7 (6-1)

Mary Hardin-Baylor
record vs 20 win teams: 2-2
record vs 18-19 win teams: 0-1
teams faced with 9 or fewer wins: 13 (13-0)

compared to...

UW-LA CROSSE
record vs 20 win teams: 4-4 (3 losses to the #1 team in the nation)
record vs 18-19 win teams: 3-0
teams faced with 9 or fewer wins: 2 (2-0)


General Thoughts
1) Mary Hardin-Baylor played 13 games against teams with 9 or fewer wins.
2) Who did Hope beat??? Calvin only solid team faced and went 1-2 vs them.
3) Stevens doesn't really have a quality win either, and they also lost to a "9 wins or fewer team."
4) Is it possible to have a more difficult schedule then La Crosse??? Not to mention they handled Calvin with ease.

Actually, Hope was 2-2 against Calvin this year.

[Knightstalker]

Stockton has good power numbers and SOS (77th). Rowan is close in power rankings but they have a poor SOS (224). NJ CU's power rankings are lower and their SOS is mediocre.

That may be what your numbers point to, but the reality is Rowan finished as the number one seed in the South division (or whatever they call it) of the NJAC and the number two seed overall (Ramapo is actually a better team but Ramapo finished second in their division to NJCU) Beat Stockton in the Playoffs and had a higher regional ranking (not that i put much weight into that).  NJCU beat Stockton and Rowan head to head, won the regular season NJAC title and would have been on the selection committees list before Rowan who would have appeared before Stockton.

If you look at the schedules I think you would find that NJCU played a tougher schedule than Rowan or Stockton did.  They didn't play Lincoln twice and Ramapo three times.

I went back and checked and I will give Stockton credit for a comparable schedule to NJCU's.

[smedindy]

This is in a vacuum with selection committees and what not. The numbers are what they are. Rowan's SOS is abysmal, and there HAS to be some difference in SOS for there to be a big gap between Stockton and NJCU.

Stockton beat Otterbein, Averett and Lincoln. They played a good game against Messiah and played Platteville, and playing the WIAC always helps the SOS. Stockton only played Lincoln once

Rowan really picked on some weak sisters early on (Medgar Evans, Phila. Bible, Apprentice, Cabrini). In my system, SOS matters over the long haul.

At any rate, Stockton was pretty low anyway, but before the conf. tourney they had a better power ranking than some "C" teams that made it in, and that's all I was trying to show.

[NW Hope Fan]

Teams that made it a head of La Crosse that I don't understand...

Hope
record vs 20 win teams: 0-0
record vs 18-19 win teams: 1-2
teams faced with 9 or fewer wins: 6 (6-0)

Guilford
record vs 20 win teams: 2-2
record vs 18-19 win teams: 2-0
teams faced with 9 or fewer wins: 6 (6-0)

Stevens
record vs 20 win teams: 0-1
record vs 17-19 win teams: 2-4
teams faced with 9 or fewer wins: 7 (6-1)

Mary Hardin-Baylor
record vs 20 win teams: 2-2
record vs 18-19 win teams: 0-1
teams faced with 9 or fewer wins: 13 (13-0)

compared to...

UW-LA CROSSE
record vs 20 win teams: 4-4 (3 losses to the #1 team in the nation)
record vs 18-19 win teams: 3-0
teams faced with 9 or fewer wins: 2 (2-0)


General Thoughts
1) Mary Hardin-Baylor played 13 games against teams with 9 or fewer wins.
2) Who did Hope beat??? Calvin only solid team faced and went 1-2 vs them.
3) Stevens doesn't really have a quality win either, and they also lost to a "9 wins or fewer team."
4) Is it possible to have a more difficult schedule then La Crosse??? Not to mention they handled Calvin with ease.

Guess you just need to take care of business when you play teams like River Falls, Carleton and Eau Claire...

[Mr. Ypsi]

If you want to see one portion of the (likely) future, check out the RPI rankings on the front page.  As far as I can tell, they still only used in-region games (rather than all d3 games) so I could see further improvement, BUT...

While I realize there are 4 other primary criteria as well, La Crosse, Oshkosh, and Elmhurst would certainly be 'locks' - DUH!  But read further - North Central and Wheaton would also be 'probables', and even Carthage (who didn't make the CCIW tourney) would be 'bubble'.  Just adding opponents' opponents records does wonders for teams in tougher regions/conferences!

GOOD RIDDANCE to QOWI!

[Greek Tragedy]

Guess you just need to take care of business when you play teams like River Falls, Carleton and Eau Claire...

Sometimes posters forget to look at the losses as well as the wins.      Oh well.  I should be in Aurora to see the mighty MIAA, even though they both got smoked by two CCIW teams that aren't in the tourney (Carthage and Wheaton, IL) 

Low blow, I know. 

[Pat Coleman]

This actually isn't meant to be the QOWI replacement. If I read correctly, and we will continue to track this down, the strength of schedule component in the future isn't going to take the winning percentage of the team itself, the way this formula does.

[Mr. Ypsi]

This actually isn't meant to be the QOWI replacement. If I read correctly, and we will continue to track this down, the strength of schedule component in the future isn't going to take the winning percentage of the team itself, the way this formula does.

OK.  I either read too much into earlier things you said or misremembered (either is highly possible!) - I thought the QOWI replacement would be basically just adding opponents' opponents records to the current metric: i.e., QOWI becomes the RPI.  Still, almost anything would be better than QOWI!

While I understand the rationale for encouraging regionalism, I suspect it is a solution in search of a problem.  How many d3 Presidents/ADs/coaches are going to have their teams flying all over the country to play 'marquee' games that .01% of the population knows or cares about?!  Overlapping the 'administrative regions' onto the definition of in-region (though I like it!) really put the lie to the rationale, IMO.  Sorry to keep using the same example, but for some reason it really sticks in my craw: how does Wheaton/Whitwworth = in-region, while Wheaton/Calvin = nonregion, advance the concept of encouraging 'regional' games?  In d1 there are mega $millions at stake - I wouldn't trust the Presidents/ADs/coaches either - but does d3 really need to ENFORCE such a rule?

[golden_dome]

If you want to see one portion of the (likely) future, check out the RPI rankings on the front page.  As far as I can tell, they still only used in-region games (rather than all d3 games) so I could see further improvement, BUT...

While I realize there are 4 other primary criteria as well, La Crosse, Oshkosh, and Elmhurst would certainly be 'locks' - DUH!  But read further - North Central and Wheaton would also be 'probables', and even Carthage (who didn't make the CCIW tourney) would be 'bubble'.  Just adding opponents' opponents records does wonders for teams in tougher regions/conferences!

GOOD RIDDANCE to QOWI!

According to the power rankings, Bates and Tufts should be in before Elmhurst, North Central and Wheaton but I have not seen anybody arguing that they should be in this year. Babson would also be a lock for the tourney ahead of Wheaton. I could have missed it but I don't think anyone is debating Babson is better than Wheaton.

I am all for finding a more fair system as long as that is the goal, but most of these posts seem determined to find any system that gets as many CCIW and WIAA teams in the field. Using a power ranking will still be flawed but in favor of stronger conferences preying on weaker conferences within region. The Midwest and Northeast will get a boost due to the number of conferences.

Division I power rankings are more successful because there is quite a bit of cross-regional play. A Division III power ranking will still be regional with a very slim number of cross-regional games. Personally, I hope a strict RPI is not the direction the NCAA takes. I would like to see some system that incorporates elements from the current system an RPI.

[Pat Coleman]

Sigh. Every map has lines, Chuck. Why is Chicago in a different state from Gary even though Gary is so much closer than East St. Louis?

No matter where you draw the line, it's drawn.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Sigh. Every map has lines, Chuck. Why is Chicago in a different state from Gary even though Gary is so much closer than East St. Louis?

No matter where you draw the line, it's drawn.

An obvious truth, which I acknowlege.  But does it have any relevance to my larger question?

Is an Amherst or Chicago (with their $billion endowments) really going to suddenly seek out high QOWI/RPI/whatever schools 2000 miles away to beat up on when only 17,324 of us would even know or care about it? 

Obvious potential rejoinder: it only takes one or two billionaire alums who DO care to make it all pay off.  True, but is THAT what d3 schools are really fearful of?  I'm (so far, but I'll listen to counter-arguments!) convinced that the 'enforced' regionalism of the selection criteria is a solution in search of a problem.  Almost all (all?) d3 schools will schedule most of their games fairly locally because it makes no economic sense to do otherwise.  Notice I didn't even touch on academic reasons of missed class time, etc.  Can't d3 trust themselves to do the rational thing, without all the crazy rules?

[And if the NCAA mapping/travel department can get Hope to Carthage in <200 miles, I guarantee I can get Calvin to Hope in <200 miles!]