Pool C

Ralph Turner · January 28, 2008, 10:12:32 AM

Quote from: DCHopeNut on January 28, 2008, 10:06:15 AM
Quote from: LogShow on January 27, 2008, 10:27:52 PM
I know its early...but with all the UW schools beating each other up it seems like the WIAC getting an at-large bid might already be out the window.

You may be right, which is sort of too bad. Looking at pabegg's numbers the UW's have C-12, 15, and 17 with a number of meetings against each other and a conference tourney still to come. I think the possibility exists that they could beat themselves out of the tourney, which is unfortunate because I think there should be at least two WIAC teams.

I think that there will be two WIAC teams, but the discussions that we have had concerning the elimination of red-shirting in the WIAC suggest that the WIAC of now is not the WIAC of a decade ago.

pabegg · February 04, 2008, 08:18:05 PM

Reg Conf Rank Prior School Natl Status Reg Overall

NE 13 01 01 Mass-Dartmouth 001 A w C 19-0 19-0
NE 16 02 02 Amherst 002 A w C 18-1 18-2
NE 16 03 04 Middlebury 009 C 2 14-3 15-4
NE 90 04 06 Brandeis 020 C 5 13-4 14-4
NE 16 05 03 Trinity (Conn.) 021 C 5 13-4 15-5
NE 16 06 05 Bowdoin 025 C 7 16-4 16-4
NE 17 07 10 Worcester Polytech 032 A w C 14-4 15-5
NE 13 08 12 Rhode Island College 041 C second 15-4 15-4
NE 16 09 09 Connecticut College 047 C second 14-4 15-4
NE 12 10 07 Emerson 048 A second 14-3 15-3
NE 16 11 15 Bates 054 C second 12-4 13-5
NE 16 12 08 Williams 059 C third 14-5 15-5
NE 14 13 13 Salem State 066 A other 13-5 13-5

EA 23 01 01 Plattsburgh State 003 A w C 14-0 17-2
EA 90 02 02 Rochester 004 A w C 15-2 16-2
EA 21 03 04 Stevens 038 C 17 17-3 17-3
EA 21 04 03 Nazareth 039 A second 13-5 13-5
EA 23 05 07 Oswego State 045 C second 12-4 14-4
EA 23 06 06 Brockport State 049 C second 11-4 13-6
EA 24 07 08 Vassar 051 A second 14-2 14-3
EA 24 08 05 St. Lawrence 056 C third 10-4 11-7

AT 32 01 01 Richard Stockton 030 A w C 14-3 14-4
AT 32 02 02 William Paterson 033 C 12 16-3 16-3
AT 33 03 05 SUNY-Old Westbury 065 A other 12-5 12-7
AT 33 04 03 SUNY-Farmingdale 080 12-4 13-5
AT 33 05 06 St. Joseph's (L.I.) 094 14-3 15-3
AT 32 06 04 New Jersey City 112 10-6 13-7
AT 31 07 07 York (N.Y.) 120 A other 13-6 15-7
AT 31 08 10 Brooklyn 127 14-5 17-5

MA 45 01 01 Ursinus 005 A w C 14-1 17-2
MA 45 02 04 Gettysburg 007 C 1 13-2 15-3
MA 43 03 03 DeSales 008 A w C 14-1 17-2
MA 42 04 02 Widener 010 A w C 13-2 16-3
MA 42 05 05 Albright 024 C 6 13-3 13-4
MA 41 06 09 York (Pa.) 050 A second 14-5 14-6
MA 42 07 07 Messiah 052 C second 11-5 13-6
MA 42 08 06 Elizabethtown 053 C second 11-4 14-4
MA 46 09 14 Moravian 077 B 3 14-5 15-5
MA 44 10 08 Immaculata 078 A other 124 13-5
MA 41 11 10 Hood 089 116 13-7

SO 54 01 03 Centre 013 A w C 14-1 18-1
SO 51 02 01 Mary Hardin-Baylor 014 A w C 13-2 15-3
SO 52 03 05 Maryville (Tenn.) 017 B 1 12-2 18-2
SO 53 04 02 Virginia Wesleyan 022 A w C 14-3 15-4
SO 53 05 04 Roanoke 027 C 8 12-4 14-4
SO 53 06 07 Guilford 029 C 10 13-4 14-4
SO 54 07 06 Millsaps 035 C 14 12-2 17-3
SO 54 08 08 DePauw 037 C 16 14-3 16-4
SO 53 09 11 Washington and Lee 044 C second 103 12-5
SO 53 10 10 Randolph-Macon 063 C third 9-4 14-4
SO 51 11 12 Texas-Dallas 070 124 13-5

GL 64 01 03 Capital 012 A w C 15-3 16-3
GL 62 02 01 Hope 016 A w C 10-2 15-3
GL 64 03 02 Heidelberg 036 C 15 13-3 15-4
GL 63 04 06 Wooster 042 A second 9-2 16-3
GL 90 05 05 Carnegie Mellon 043 C second 10-4 13-5
GL 63 06 04 Ohio Wesleyan 060 C third 11-4 12-6
GL 64 07 09 Wilmington 068 12-5 12-7
GL 62 08 10 Albion 069 8-3 12-5
GL 61 09 07 Penn State-Behrend 079 A other 14-3 15-4

MW 74 01 02 Lawrence 011 A w C 12-2 14-2
MW 90 02 01 Washington U. 015 C 3 11-3 14-4
MW 71 03 03 Augustana 019 A w C 14-4 15-4
MW 90 04 06 Chicago 058 C third 11-6 12-6
MW 71 05 04 Wheaton (Ill.) 061 C third 11-5 14-5
MW 71 06 08 Illinois Wesleyan 064 C third 10-6 11-8
MW 71 07 07 Elmhurst 071 13-5 14-5
MW 74 08 13 Carroll 082 10-5 11-5
MW 73 09 10 Aurora 084 B 5 14-4 16-4
MW 76 10 14 Webster 090 115 13-5
MW 72 11 09 Defiance 092 A other 126 14-6

WE 84 01 02 Occidental 006 A w C 11-1 16-2
WE 82 02 04 St. Thomas 018 A w C 14-2 16-3
WE 81 03 01 Buena Vista 023 A w C 12-2 16-4
WE 86 04 05 UW-Stevens Point 026 A w C 13-4 15-4
WE 86 05 06 UW-Platteville 028 C 9 14-3 15-4
WE 86 06 08 UW-Whitewater 031 C 11 14-3 16-3
WE 81 07 09 Loras 034 C 13 12-3 15-5
WE 84 08 10 Cal Lutheran 040 C second 13-3 15-3
WE 83 09 03 Puget Sound 046 A second 11-2 15-3
WE 86 10 07 UW-Oshkosh 055 C third 11-5 14-6
WE 82 11 13 Gustavus Adolphus 057 C third 12-4 14-4

Reg Region
Conf Conference number
Rank Regional ranking
Prior Prior regional ranking
School
Natl National ranking based on regional results
Status
B + number: Pool B ranking (top 4 in tournament)
C + number: Pool C ranking of 17 teams in tournament
C second: second tier Pool C (spots 18-27)
C third: third tier Pool C (spots 28-37)
A w C: Pool A, in likely Pool C range
A second: Pool A, in second tier Pool C
A third: Pool A, in third tier Pool C
blank: lower level Pool C

One week out from the real rankings. Again, I've ranked three more teams per region than will be in the actual rankings, just to indicate the teams that are close.

Not many big changes this week, except for Puget Sound dropping like a rock. WashU doesn't take much of a hit due to the quality of their losses. At this point, five conferences with multiple Pool C bids - the usual suspects except for the SCAC which places Centre, Millsaps, and DePauw in the mix.

LogShow · February 04, 2008, 08:52:22 PM

No suprise that Puget Sound dropped the quality of their opponent was awful...

pabegg · February 04, 2008, 10:37:25 PM

Sac pointed out to me that the scoreboard on the site shows Carnegie Mellon with 5 regional losses.

Carnegie Mellon - Johns Hopkins is not regional.

Great Lakes versus Mid-Atlantic, Admin region 1 vs. 2, Pittsburgh to Baltimore over 200 miles.

In the NFL, Pittsburgh and Baltimore are in the same division. Not in D3Hoops.

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh · February 04, 2008, 10:48:29 PM

Fixed... thanks pabegg!

SLP-O-8 · February 07, 2008, 06:01:05 AM

So what are the chances of a team like Buena Vista to reach the tournament if they say win the rest of their regular season games making them 21-4 and conference champs with one loss in the conference. They reach the championship game but lose. that would make them 22-5. Even if they lose another game somewhere in their last 4 before the tournament and are 20-5 and dont win the conference tourney. Would they get a bid into the NCAA tournament anyway. Im not sure how this all works and could use an opinion...thanks ahead of time

Ralph Turner · February 07, 2008, 08:35:57 AM

Quote from: SLP-O-8 on February 07, 2008, 06:01:05 AM
So what are the chances of a team like Buena Vista to reach the tournament if they say win the rest of their regular season games making them 21-4 and conference champs with one loss in the conference. They reach the championship game but lose. that would make them 22-5. Even if they lose another game somewhere in their last 4 before the tournament and are 20-5 and dont win the conference tourney. Would they get a bid into the NCAA tournament anyway. Im not sure how this all works and could use an opinion...thanks ahead of time

Right now, it looks like they might have a Pool C bid, if they don't earn the Pool A.

pabegg · February 07, 2008, 10:47:09 AM

Quote from: SLP-O-8 on February 07, 2008, 06:01:05 AM
So what are the chances of a team like Buena Vista to reach the tournament if they say win the rest of their regular season games making them 21-4 and conference champs with one loss in the conference. They reach the championship game but lose. that would make them 22-5. Even if they lose another game somewhere in their last 4 before the tournament and are 20-5 and dont win the conference tourney. Would they get a bid into the NCAA tournament anyway. Im not sure how this all works and could use an opinion...thanks ahead of time

Right now they're #23 in my rankings nationally, which would be well inside the tournament range.

Since only regional games are included, they're 12-2 through Sunday, which is better than their 16-4 overall. By my count, they've got 5 conference games left plus up to three in the tournament.

My guess: they're in for sure with 1 loss, very likely with 2 losses, and in contention with 3. Wins over Loras would help because Loras is the only other contender from the conference.

Titan Q · February 07, 2008, 12:05:51 PM

pabegg, thanks for doing your rankings - I think they're very interesting and helpful.

sumander · February 07, 2008, 12:24:19 PM

pabegg, the question was posed earlier this week on the MIAC board about Gustavus getting a Pool C bid. My answer based on your earlier rankings was.. "The MIAC is a one team league this year, unless St. Thomas gets upset in the conference tournament".

Gustavus would be the only team that would appear to be given consideration. What are your thoughts?

Thanks

LogShow · February 07, 2008, 01:36:51 PM

Puget Sound dropped from 11th in your rankings to 46th. If they lose another game aside from the finals of the conference tournament...see ya later at-large chances

pabegg · February 07, 2008, 03:06:35 PM

Quote from: sumander on February 07, 2008, 12:24:19 PM
pabegg, the question was posed earlier this week on the MIAC board about Gustavus getting a Pool C bid. My answer based on your earlier rankings was.. "The MIAC is a one team league this year, unless St. Thomas gets upset in the conference tournament".

Gustavus would be the only team that would appear to be given consideration. What are your thoughts?

Thanks

I would think that Gustavus would be a Pool C contender with one more loss. Two losses would probably be too many, so they have to beat St. Thomas either in the regular season game or in post-season.

St. Thomas has two fewer losses, so the logic is almost identical: out with 4 losses, contender with 3, definitely in with 1 or 2 (and obviously a Pool A with 0).

Both schools have a strength of schedule that is almost exactly .5000, so they don't get ay help from that quarter.

sumander · February 07, 2008, 03:28:27 PM

Thanks pabegg!

SLP-O-8 · February 07, 2008, 11:34:45 PM

BV won at Wartburg on wednesday so that leaves 4 conference games left with a 13-2 record against the region and they are almost guaranteed a #1 or #2 in the conference tournament so thats only 2 games in the tournament. They have loras at home left for the last game of the regular season. Thanks for you help and i really hope you are right. Would be great to see BV in the tournament again.

pabegg · February 10, 2008, 08:33:32 PM

Reg Conf Rank Prior RPI OWP OOWP School Natl Status Reg Overall

NE 16 01 02 0.6805 0.6135 0.5405 Amherst 001 A w C 21-1 21-2
NE 13 02 01 0.6492 0.5539 0.5366 Mass-Dartmouth 002 A w C 20-1 20-1
NE 16 03 03 0.6413 0.6238 0.5176 Middlebury 011 C 3 16-4 17-5
NE 16 04 05 0.6400 0.6089 0.5424 Trinity (Conn.) 013 C 4 16-4 18-5
NE 16 05 06 0.6189 0.5638 0.5298 Bowdoin 016 C 5 18-4 18-4
NE 90 06 04 0.6344 0.5831 0.5818 Brandeis 018 C 6 15-4 16-4
NE 17 07 07 0.6045 0.5439 0.5408 Worcester Polytech 029 A w C 15-4 16-5
NE 16 08 11 0.6012 0.5628 0.5426 Bates 044 C second 14-5 15-6
NE 12 09 10 0.5578 0.4347 0.5119 Emerson 048 A second 17-3 18-3
NE 13 10 08 0.5898 0.5292 0.5387 Rhode Island College 049 C second 16-5 16-5
NE 14 11 13 0.5737 0.5240 0.4968 Salem State 056 A third 15-5 15-5
NE 12 12 14 0.5505 0.4556 0.5014 Emmanuel 062 C third 15-4 15-6
NE 16 13 09 0.5707 0.5175 0.5333 Connecticut College 064 C third 15-6 16-6

EA 23 01 01 0.6378 0.5107 0.5296 Plattsburgh State 003 A w C 16-0 19-2
EA 90 02 02 0.6704 0.6328 0.5741 Rochester 006 A w C 16-3 17-3
EA 23 03 06 0.6181 0.5850 0.5378 Brockport State 031 C 11 13-4 16-6
EA 21 04 04 0.6282 0.6083 0.5462 Nazareth 033 A w C 15-5 15-5
EA 21 05 03 0.5724 0.4459 0.5340 Stevens 035 C 13 19-3 19-3
EA 23 06 05 0.6013 0.5793 0.5242 Oswego State 047 C second 13-5 15-5
EA 24 07 08 0.5717 0.5289 0.5232 St. Lawrence 065 A third 12-5 13-8
EA 23 08 09 0.5487 0.4558 0.5334 Cortland State 074 15-5 17-5

AT 32 01 01 0.5971 0.5404 0.5180 Richard Stockton 036 A w C 15-4 15-5
AT 32 02 02 0.5878 0.5158 0.5195 William Paterson 040 C 17 16-4 16-4
AT 33 03 04 0.5596 0.4609 0.4833 SUNY-Farmingdale 053 A second 15-3 16-4
AT 33 04 03 0.5659 0.5592 0.4610 SUNY-Old Westbury 075 13-6 13-8
AT 31 05 07 0.5333 0.4602 0.4984 York (N.Y.) 103 A other 15-6 17-7
AT 33 06 05 0.5138 0.4134 0.4782 St. Joseph's (L.I.) 112 15-5 16-5
AT 32 07 06 0.5416 0.5189 0.5176 New Jersey City 119 11-7 14-8
AT 31 08 08 0.4962 0.3585 0.4952 Brooklyn 123 17-5 20-5

MA 45 01 01 0.6300 0.5306 0.5177 Ursinus 004 A w C 16-1 19-2
MA 45 02 02 0.6266 0.5512 0.5215 Gettysburg 005 C 1 15-2 17-3
MA 42 03 04 0.6133 0.5528 0.5240 Widener 017 A w C 14-3 17-4
MA 43 04 03 0.5931 0.5223 0.5040 DeSales 032 A w C 14-3 17-4
MA 42 05 07 0.6363 0.6517 0.5197 Messiah 039 C 16 13-5 15-6
MA 42 06 05 0.5944 0.5282 0.5434 Albright 041 C second 14-4 14-5
MA 41 07 06 0.5975 0.5601 0.5077 York (Pa.) 042 A second 16-5 16-6
MA 44 08 10 0.5523 0.4826 0.5070 Immaculata 070 A third 14-5 15-6
MA 46 09 09 0.5487 0.4621 0.5088 Moravian 072 B 3 16-5 17-5
MA 42 10 08 0.5885 0.5847 0.5374 Elizabethtown 073 116 14-6
MA 43 11 14 0.5517 0.5158 0.5084 Manhattanville 090 126 15-6

SO 54 01 01 0.5945 0.4709 0.4988 Centre 015 A w C 15-1 20-1
SO 51 02 02 0.5937 0.4872 0.5117 Mary Hardin-Baylor 019 A w C 16-2 18-3
SO 52 03 03 0.5883 0.4862 0.5059 Maryville (Tenn.) 022 B 1 14-2 20-2
SO 53 04 06 0.6103 0.5607 0.5302 Guilford 027 A w C 15-4 16-4
SO 53 05 04 0.5995 0.5328 0.5324 Virginia Wesleyan 028 C 9 16-4 17-5
SO 54 06 07 0.5684 0.4536 0.4913 Millsaps 037 C 14 14-2 19-3
SO 54 07 08 0.5751 0.4779 0.5113 DePauw 038 C 15 15-3 18-4
SO 53 08 10 0.5901 0.5344 0.5417 Randolph-Macon 050 C second 12-4 17-4
SO 53 09 05 0.6074 0.6158 0.5140 Roanoke 054 C second 136 15-6
SO 51 10 13 0.5513 0.4952 0.5091 Mississippi College 081 12-5 15-5
SO 51 11 11 0.5472 0.4755 0.5156 Texas-Dallas 083 135 14-6

GL 64 01 01 0.6130 0.5366 0.5287 Capital 010 A w C 17-3 18-3
GL 62 02 02 0.5953 0.5024 0.5193 Hope 020 A w C 12-2 17-3
GL 63 03 04 0.5952 0.5194 0.4957 Wooster 024 A w C 11-2 18-3
GL 64 04 03 0.5792 0.5060 0.5272 Heidelberg 046 C second 14-4 16-5
GL 63 05 06 0.5861 0.5407 0.4985 Ohio Wesleyan 051 C second 13-4 14-6
GL 61 06 10 0.5572 0.4759 0.4876 Lake Erie 057 A third 15-4 15-6
GL 61 07 09 0.5472 0.4235 0.4998 Penn State-Behrend 058 C third 16-3 17-4
GL 90 08 05 0.6111 0.6197 0.5798 Carnegie Mellon 066 C third 10-6 13-7
GL 62 09 08 0.5496 0.4582 0.5129 Albion 069 C third 10-3 14-5

MW 90 01 02 0.6892 0.6892 0.5659 Washington U. 008 C 2 13-3 16-4
MW 74 02 01 0.6074 0.5217 0.5110 Lawrence 009 A w C 14-2 16-2
MW 71 03 03 0.6314 0.5774 0.5709 Augustana 014 A w C 16-4 17-4
MW 71 04 05 0.6046 0.5689 0.5583 Wheaton (Ill.) 045 C second 13-5 16-5
MW 71 05 06 0.6171 0.6237 0.5544 Illinois Wesleyan 055 C third 12-6 13-8
MW 74 06 08 0.5731 0.5389 0.4925 Carroll 060 C third 13-5 14-5
MW 90 07 04 0.6199 0.6399 0.5683 Chicago 061 C third 12-7 13-7
MW 76 08 10 0.5636 0.5283 0.4754 Webster 068 A third 13-5 15-5
MW 71 09 07 0.5672 0.5189 0.5311 Elmhurst 071 C third 14-6 15-6
MW 72 10 11 0.5520 0.5145 0.4949 Defiance 085 A other 136 15-6
MW 73 11 09 0.5349 0.4542 0.4943 Aurora 093 B 5 145 16-5

WE 84 01 01 0.6128 0.4940 0.5347 Occidental 007 A w C 13-1 18-2
WE 82 02 02 0.6012 0.4903 0.5295 St. Thomas 012 A w C 17-2 19-3
WE 86 03 05 0.6009 0.5082 0.5538 UW-Platteville 021 A w C 15-3 17-4
WE 86 04 04 0.6134 0.5665 0.5311 UW-Stevens Point 023 C 7 15-4 17-4
WE 81 05 03 0.5866 0.4644 0.5428 Buena Vista 025 A w C 14-2 18-4
WE 81 06 07 0.5985 0.5112 0.5479 Loras 026 C 8 14-3 17-5
WE 84 07 08 0.5901 0.5026 0.5219 Cal Lutheran 030 C 10 15-3 17-3
WE 86 08 06 0.5802 0.4669 0.5448 UW-Whitewater 034 C 12 16-3 18-3
WE 86 09 10 0.6093 0.5844 0.5463 UW-Oshkosh 043 C second 13-5 16-6
WE 83 10 09 0.5643 0.4750 0.5070 Puget Sound 052 A second 12-3 16-4
WE 82 11 11 0.5702 0.5124 0.5192 Gustavus Adolphus 059 C third 14-5 16-5

Reg Region
Conf Conference number
Rank Regional ranking
Prior Prior regional ranking
School
Natl National ranking based on regional results
Status
B + number: Pool B ranking (top 4 in tournament)
C + number: Pool C ranking of 17 teams in tournament
C second: second tier Pool C (spots 18-27)
C third: third tier Pool C (spots 28-37)
A w C: Pool A, in likely Pool C range
A second: Pool A, in second tier Pool C
A third: Pool A, in third tier Pool C
blank: lower level Pool C

Again, one more week without a lot of movement. Roanoke takes the biggest hit, along with Stevens. Brockport is the biggest gainer.
Again, with a lot of wins, Chicago takes a hit to whatever chances they had with the loss to Rochester.

Now we'll see the real rankings on Wednesday and find out how much things have changed from last year. Again, these rankings have been done using a straight replacement of the SOSI with the RPI, which is not probably the case.