Pool C

[ILive4This]

could you possibly explain the math behind the RPI system you are using?

[pabegg]

could you possibly explain the math behind the RPI system you are using?

I'm using the standard RPI calculation:

Regional Winning Percentage (RWP) is the regional winning percentage
Opponents' Winning Percentage (OWP) is the average of the opponents winning percentage (excluding games  between the team in question and the opponent)
Opponents' Opponents' Winning Percentage (OOWP) is the average of the opponents OWP

RPI is then 1/4 RWP + 1/2 OWP + 1/4 OOWP. This is also expressed as 1/4 RWP + 3/4 SOS, where SOS is the Strength of Schedule and is calculated as 2/3 OWP + 1/3 OOWP.

[Titan Q]

could you possibly explain the math behind the RPI system you are using?

I'm using the standard RPI calculation:

Regional Winning Percentage (RWP) is the regional winning percentage
Opponents' Winning Percentage (OWP) is the average of the opponents winning percentage (excluding games  between the team in question and the opponent)
Opponents' Opponents' Winning Percentage (OOWP) is the average of the opponents OWP

RPI is then 1/4 RWP + 1/2 OWP + 1/4 OOWP. This is also expressed as 1/4 RWP + 3/4 SOS, where SOS is the Strength of Schedule and is calculated as 2/3 OWP + 1/3 OOWP.

Is it possible to list the OWP and OOWP totals on your chart?  I don't know if that is something as simple as just copying/pasting something?  Certainly don't do it if it's a lot of trouble.

Thanks.

[pabegg]

could you possibly explain the math behind the RPI system you are using?

I'm using the standard RPI calculation:

Regional Winning Percentage (RWP) is the regional winning percentage
Opponents' Winning Percentage (OWP) is the average of the opponents winning percentage (excluding games  between the team in question and the opponent)
Opponents' Opponents' Winning Percentage (OOWP) is the average of the opponents OWP

RPI is then 1/4 RWP + 1/2 OWP + 1/4 OOWP. This is also expressed as 1/4 RWP + 3/4 SOS, where SOS is the Strength of Schedule and is calculated as 2/3 OWP + 1/3 OOWP.

Is it possible to list the OWP and OOWP totals on your chart?  I don't know if that is something as simple as just copying/pasting something?  Certainly don't do it if it's a lot of trouble.

Thanks.

I've updated the chart to add RPI, OWP, and OOWP columns

[pabegg]

could you possibly explain the math behind the RPI system you are using?

I'm using the standard RPI calculation:

Regional Winning Percentage (RWP) is the regional winning percentage
Opponents' Winning Percentage (OWP) is the average of the opponents winning percentage (excluding games  between the team in question and the opponent)
Opponents' Opponents' Winning Percentage (OOWP) is the average of the opponents OWP

RPI is then 1/4 RWP + 1/2 OWP + 1/4 OOWP. This is also expressed as 1/4 RWP + 3/4 SOS, where SOS is the Strength of Schedule and is calculated as 2/3 OWP + 1/3 OOWP.

It strikes me that I answered the question, but not the whole question.

Once I've got the RPI and RWP, I calculate a national ranking for each number, then combine the two rankings to get an overall national ranking. This process worked very well in the past with RWP and SOSI; I'm hoping that RPI provides an adequate replacement this year.

Once the regional rankings are released on Wednesday, I'll try to tweak my calculations to line up with the official rankings.

[John Gleich]

Are the OWP and the OOWP based solely off of teams that each particular ranked team has beaten or is it based off the entire schedule?

I THINK it's against every team, just clarifying...


It's interesting to me to see how things change from one week to the next...  UWSP had been ahead of Platteville, but they played two of the lower WIAC teams and they dropped as their OWP dropped to follow suit!

One more question... is the OWP and OOWP based off of the entire schedule, or just the ones that "count" (IE regional games)?

[Ralph Turner]

Are the OWP and the OOWP based solely off of teams that each particular ranked team has beaten or is it based off the entire schedule?

I THINK it's against every team, just clarifying...


It's interesting to me to see how things change from one week to the next...  UWSP had been ahead of Platteville, but they played two of the lower WIAC teams and they dropped as their OWP dropped to follow suit!

One more question... is the OWP and OOWP based off of the entire schedule, or just the ones that "count" (IE regional games)?

I understand it to be in-region games.

[SLP-O-8]

The same thing is happening to BV.  Their OWP and their OOWP are hurting them because everybody else in the IIAC besides them and Loras are constantly beating each other.  BV and Loras are 12-1 and 11-2 respectively in the conference and the next best is Coe at 7-6.  It wont get better the next two games either with Simpson and Central being towards the bottom of the standings.  It wont go up again until the finale against Loras.  Hopefully, it will be a third match between them in the tournament so it helps their OWP and OOWP at the very least.

[magicman]

pabegg

According to your rankings does that mean the top 10 teams in the country are:

1. Amherst
2. UM-Darthmout
3. Plattsburgh St.
4. Ursinus
5. Gettsburg
6. UofR
7. Occidental
8. Wash. U.
9. Lawrence
10. Capital

Or does the ranking signify something else?  And it certainly looks like you've put a TON of effort into this. Thanks, it's nice to have something more to look at  for comparison purposes.

[pabegg]

Are the OWP and the OOWP based solely off of teams that each particular ranked team has beaten or is it based off the entire schedule?

I THINK it's against every team, just clarifying...


It's interesting to me to see how things change from one week to the next...  UWSP had been ahead of Platteville, but they played two of the lower WIAC teams and they dropped as their OWP dropped to follow suit!

One more question... is the OWP and OOWP based off of the entire schedule, or just the ones that "count" (IE regional games)?

It is just the regional games. Of course, given the definition of regional games, this covers the vast majority of D3 games.

[pabegg]

pabegg

According to your rankings does that mean the top 10 teams in the country are:

1. Amherst
2. UM-Darthmout
3. Plattsburgh St.
4. Ursinus
5. Gettsburg
6. UofR
7. Occidental
8. Wash. U.
9. Lawrence
10. Capital

Or does the ranking signify something else?  And it certainly looks like you've put a TON of effort into this. Thanks, it's nice to have something more to look at  for comparison purposes.

Yes, that's the Top 10. But it's important to be clear what it's the Top 10 for.

Those are not the "ten best" teams in the country. Those are the "ten best" teams in an approximation of the rating system that will be used for the tournament. In addition, this does not take into account the other parts of the tournament rating, such as head-to-head and record versus ranked teams.

And even that is subject to how the committee works. For example, they've traditionally tried to seed the top 16 spots using the top 2 teams in all regions (except for the Atlantic and sometimes the East, where only the top team gets seeded), which is especially important given the neutral-site opening rounds.

[Ralph Turner]

pabegg, thanks for the list.

As infrequently as the West coast hosts tourney games, you are making the case for Occidental to host a first round game this season, especially if UMHB earns the Pool A bid from the ASC, and Trinity TX or Southwestern does not win the SCAC.

Geographic proximity might also help Oxy's case if Cal Lutheran earned a Pool C bid.

[pabegg]

The same thing is happening to BV.  Their OWP and their OOWP are hurting them because everybody else in the IIAC besides them and Loras are constantly beating each other.  BV and Loras are 12-1 and 11-2 respectively in the conference and the next best is Coe at 7-6.  It wont get better the next two games either with Simpson and Central being towards the bottom of the standings.  It wont go up again until the finale against Loras.  Hopefully, it will be a third match between them in the tournament so it helps their OWP and OOWP at the very least.

Just to clarify on this: it shouldn't matter much to BV or Loras who's winning the other games in the conference, since with a balanced schedule they get credit for both the W and the L in the calculations (one opponent's OWP is higher than before, the other's is lower).

Looking at the numbers for BV, their OWP is .4644, 289th in the country, and the OOWP is .5428, 22nd in the country, so their average opponent is a little below .500 with a tougher schedule than average, Their Strength of Schedule then calculates as 237th. Their RWP ties for 11th, which ends up giving them an RPI that is 49th; on balance they are 25th.

Numerically, they play in a pretty average conference. Their three non-conference games hurt them on the average (St. Olaf is just below average, and UW-Stout is "more bad" than Gustavus is good). The loss to Gustavus will hurt them on tournament selection, both head-to-head and on the results vs. ranked teams.

[pabegg]

pabegg, thanks for the list.

As infrequently as the West coast hosts tourney games, you are making the case for Occidental to host a first round game this season, especially if UMHB earns the Pool A bid from the ASC, and Trinity TX or Southwestern does not win the SCAC.

Geographic proximity might also help Oxy's case if Cal Lutheran earned a Pool C bid.

If Oxy holds on to one of the top 2 spots in the West, they should host. Traditionally, the SoCal team has to stand in line behind teams with better records (normally due to the fact that SoCal teams beat up on each other). But the committee has been pretty consistent about giving hosting seeds to the top 2 teams in the region.

The NCAA has two options on making this happen: find three other teams that would have to fly anyway and ship them to LA, which is what I think that you're getting at, or find two teams that are a short drive away and pair them up opening round and then fly the winner to LA for a single game. If there were 2 NWC teams this would be an obvious situation. If WashU drops behind Lawrence and Augustana in the Midwest, you could match them with cross-town rival Webster from the SLIAC and then fly from St. Louis to Los Angeles for round two.

[LogShow]

The NWC is beating each other up this year.  The nost likely canidate would be Puget Sound.  Even if Puget Sound win the rest of thier games and loses in the conference final, I highly doubt that they will get an at-large bid.  The numbers are too much against them.  They have lost 3 region games and only Whitworth has a 66% or higher win percentage.