Pool C

[Titan Q]

I have been using a spreadsheet to track Pool C.  I decide to run a very, very simple calculation for games through Friday 2/22:

In-region winning % + (OWP + OOWP)

The results follow.  Columns are: Wins, Losses, Winning %, OWP, OOWP, OWP+OOWP, Win % + (OWP + OOWP)

(Disclaimer - I am not suggesting the committee uses this calculation, so just take it for what it's worth!)

* = team currently tied for 1st in league


1   Amherst (NESCAC, NE)   22   1   0.957   0.616   0.550   1.166   2.123
2   Plattsburg St (SUNYAC, East)   19   0   1.000   0.510   0.529   1.039   2.039
3   Washington U.* (UAA, MW)   15   4   0.789   0.650   0.569   1.219   2.008
4   Brandeis* (UAA, NE)    18   4   0.818   0.605   0.585   1.190   2.008 - C1
5   Mass-Dartmouth* (LEC, NE)    22   2   0.917   0.540   0.532   1.072   1.989
6   Ursinus (CC, Mid Atl)   19   1   0.950   0.512   0.516   1.028   1.978
7   Centre (SCAC, South)   17   1   0.944   0.515   0.496   1.011   1.955
8   Rochester (UAA, East)    17   5   0.773   0.611   0.561   1.172   1.945 - C2
9   Gettysburg (CC, Mid Atl)    18   2   0.900   0.525   0.519   1.044   1.944 - C3
10   Occidental (SCIAC, West)    13   2   0.867   0.531   0.533   1.064   1.931
11   Trinity, CT (NESCAC, NE)    16   5   0.762   0.614   0.550   1.164   1.926 - C4
12   Augustana (CCIW, MW)   18   5   0.783   0.586   0.557   1.143   1.926
13   Lawrence (MWC, MW)   17   2   0.895   0.519   0.508   1.027   1.922
14   UW-Stevens Point* (WIAC, West)   18   4   0.818   0.564   0.528   1.092   1.910
15   Worcester Poly (NEWMAC, NE)   18   4   0.818   0.553   0.538   1.091   1.909
16   Mary Hardin-Baylor (ASC, South)   19   2   0.905   0.493   0.507   1.000   1.905
17   Guilford (ODAC, South)   19   4   0.826   0.544   0.528   1.072   1.898
18   Bowdoin (NESCAC, NE)   19   5   0.792   0.571   0.529   1.100   1.892 - C5
19   Widener (MACC, Mid Atl)    16   4   0.800   0.557   0.534   1.091   1.891 - C6
20   Capital (OAC, GL)   19   4   0.826   0.540   0.523   1.063   1.889
21   Hope (MIAA, GL)   14   2   0.875   0.517   0.497   1.014   1.889
22   Brockport St (SUNYAC, East)    15   4   0.789   0.560   0.536   1.096   1.885 - C7
23   Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC, South)    18   4   0.818   0.543   0.522   1.065   1.883 - C8
24   Loras* (IIAC, West)    16   3   0.842   0.499   0.541   1.040   1.882
25   Middlebury (NESCAC, NE)    16   5   0.762   0.595   0.525   1.120   1.882 - C9
26   Wooster (NCAC, GL)   14   2   0.875   0.509   0.490   0.999   1.874
27   Rhode Island* (LEC, NE)    19   5   0.792   0.550   0.532   1.082   1.874 -C10
28   St. Thomas (MIAC, West)   18   3   0.857   0.493   0.522   1.015   1.872
29   UW-Whitewater* (WIAC, West)   18   4   0.818   0.505   0.537   1.042   1.860 - C11
30   Millsaps (SCAC, South)    16   2   0.889   0.475   0.494   0.969   1.858 - C12
31   Chicago* (UAA, MW)   15   7   0.682   0.601   0.569   1.170   1.852 - C13
32   Heidelberg (OAC, GL)    17   4   0.810   0.516   0.524   1.040   1.850- C14
33   Buena Vista* (IIAC, West)   15   3   0.833   0.473   0.534   1.007   1.840 - C15
34   Maryville (GSAC, South)   15   2   0.882   0.461   0.495   0.956   1.838 - Pool B
35   Nazareth* (E8, East)   18   6   0.750   0.548   0.538   1.086   1.836
36   Bates (NESCAC, NE)    16   6   0.727   0.566   0.541   1.107   1.834 - C16
37   York, Pa (CAC, Mid-Alt)   18   5   0.783   0.543   0.503   1.046   1.829
38   Illinois Wesleyan (CCIW, MW)    14   7   0.667   0.617   0.544   1.161   1.828 - C17


39   St. Lawrence (LL, East)   15   5   0.750   0.560   0.515   1.075   1.825
40   Cal Lutheran (SCIAC, West)    15   4   0.789   0.507   0.526   1.033   1.822
41   Penn State - Behrend (AMCC, GL)   18   3   0.857   0.468   0.494   0.962   1.819
42   Wheaton, IL (CCIW, MW)    14   6   0.700   0.565   0.554   1.119   1.819
43   Albright (MACC, Mid-Atl   15   6   0.714   0.557   0.544   1.101   1.815
44   UW-Oshkosh (WIAC, West)   14   6   0.700   0.580   0.535   1.115   1.815
45   Richard Stockton (NJAC, Atl)   18   5   0.783   0.509   0.523   1.032   1.815
46   Emerson (GNAC, NE)   20   3   0.870   0.442   0.502   0.944   1.814
47   UW-Platteville (WIAC, West)    16   5   0.762   0.510   0.539   1.049   1.811
48   Albion (MIAA, GL)   13   3   0.813   0.498   0.498   0.996   1.809
49   DePauw (SCAC, South)    16   4   0.800   0.499   0.509   1.008   1.808
50   Randolph-Macon (ODAC, South)   14   5   0.737   0.542   0.528   1.070   1.807
51   Stevens* (E8, East)   20   5   0.800   0.461   0.525   0.986   1.786
52   Elms (NAC, NE)   16   5   0.762   0.540   0.484   1.024   1.786
53   Roanoke (ODAC, South)   15   7   0.682   0.586   0.514   1.100   1.782
54   William Paterson (NJAC, Atlantic)   17   6   0.739   0.524   0.517   1.041   1.780
55   Messiah (MACC, Mid-Atl)   13   8   0.619   0.633   0.527   1.160   1.779
56   Oswego State (SUNYAC, East)    13   6   0.684   0.575   0.517   1.092   1.776
57   Elmhurst (CCIW, MW)    17   6   0.739   0.499   0.536   1.035   1.774
58   DeSales (MACF, Mid-Atl)   16   4   0.800   0.465   0.505   0.970   1.770
59   Ohio Wesleyan (NCAC, GL)    15   5   0.750   0.528   0.492   1.020   1.770
60   Williams (NESCAC, NE)   16   7   0.696   0.532   0.541   1.073   1.769
61   Salem State (MASCAC, NE)   18   6   0.750   0.512   0.503   1.015   1.765
62   Farmingdale St (SKY, Atl)   18   4   0.818   0.469   0.476   0.945   1.763
63   Nebraska Wesleyan (IND, West)   6   1   0.857   0.375   0.530   0.905   1.762
64   Conn College (NESCAC, NE)   16   7   0.696   0.527   0.535   1.062   1.758
65   Mississippi College (ASC, South)   15   5   0.750   0.498   0.508   1.006   1.756
66   Coast Guard (NEWMAC, NE)   16   6   0.727   0.496   0.529   1.025   1.752
67   Gustavus Adolphus (MIAC, West)   16   6   0.727   0.504   0.518   1.022   1.749
68   Lycoming (MACC, Mid-Atl)   13   8   0.619   0.578   0.552   1.130   1.749
69   Hamilton (LL, East)   15   6   0.714   0.526   0.503   1.029   1.743
70   Webster (SLIAC, MW)   16   5   0.762   0.492   0.481   0.973   1.735

[Ralph Turner]

I know they play in a tough league, but 7 in-region losses sure seems like a lot to be considered for Pool C.

In-region winning % is only one of the primary criteria.  Chicago is great is one of the other biggies - strength of schedule.  OWP = .601 (13th in country).   

Illinois Wesleyan is basically in the same boat - 7 in-region losses, but the #6 OWP in the nation (.617).  5 of IWU's 7 regional losses are to conference leaders:

@ Wash U (1st, UAA)
@ Chicago (1st, UAA)
@ Occidental (1st, SCIAC)
vs Augustana (1st CCIW)
@ Augustana (1st CCIW)

The new OWP/OOWP system should keep teams like Chicago and IWU at least on the bubble, whereas with QOWI they'd be dead.

I hope that someone will run the QOWI versus the OWP/OOWP.

[Mr. Downtown]

I think their are no questions if Oshkosh should be considered for a Pool C bid, after leading by 8 at half, they lose to a very young and inexperienced UW-Superior by 10 today.

Superior is very dangerous (they also knocked off Platteville) and for anyone that has ever slighty paid attention to the WIAC, the rise of the Yellowjackets is a bit surprising, but this team will be contending for the WIAC title next year, and perhaps after.

Now eyes turn to Platteville as the Pioneers and Pointers tip off. If Platteville loses tonight, its another team that the West can scratch off from the Pool C contenders list.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Q, thanks for doing that chart, but (despite the parentheses) the way you calculated it gives twice as much weight to OWP and OOWP as to in-region winning percentage.  (If you wanted 'SOS' to count equally with in-region %, you'd need to divide the sum of OWP and OOWP by 2, then add IR%.)  While we just don't know what the selection committee will do with OWP and OOWP, your weighting seems unlikely.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Not up on scoreboard yet, but a WIAC poster has Platteville routing UWSP by 19(?)

[Mr. Downtown]

Don't count out Platteville yet. Jeff Skemp is a senior who has the talent and power to take the Pioneers to a NCAA bid.

You could still see three teams coming out of the WIAC.

[voice]

Mr. Ypsi - did you think I was dreaming the UWSP-UWP final score???

[Mr. Ypsi]

Mr. Ypsi - did you think I was dreaming the UWSP-UWP final score???

Sorry, but I like 'official' confirmation before I stick my neck out too far!

[Greek Tragedy]

It'll be interesting how the rankings will look like in the West Region.  Point lost big time.  They now have 5 in-region losses and then to get a Pool C, they'd take in another in-region loss.  6 should get them in, depending on the rest of the West Region.  They may have to play Platteville again in the semis, if both get that far.

[John Gleich]

Don't count out Platteville yet. Jeff Skemp is a senior who has the talent and power to take the Pioneers to a NCAA bid.

You could still see three teams coming out of the WIAC.

Junior, actually, unfortunately for the entire rest of the conference...  Platteville is going to be the team to beat next year, even with up-and-coming Superior and Point with everybody back but Hicklin.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Tom, IWU lost to NPU by 10 in OT.

[magicman]

Tom,

Occidental lost to Whittier 69-65

Cal Lutheran beat Redlands 70-64

[pabegg]

Buena Vista 80-79 over Loras

[Mr. Downtown]

One can make a case that the top 3 team's in the West Region would be WIAC teams.

[pabegg]

Daily update on Pool C issues:

Heidelberg and Whitewater have clinched their Pool C bids, joining Gettysburg, Brandeis, Bowdoin, Middlebury, Virginia Wesleyan, and Trinity CT as likely Pool C teams.

PS-Behrend and Emerson have moved up so they will be in Pool C contention if they fail to win their conference tournaments.

Brockport and Rhode Island lost their margin of error; they now sit firmly on the bubble.

UW-Platteville replaces Stevens as the last team in the current Pool C; Stevens does, however, replace Hamilton as the most likely Pool A from the E8.

York PA is still a likely Pool A, but they are no longer in contention for Pool C.

Scranton passes Moravian for the last Pool B.