Pool C

[John Gleich]

West
1. UW-Stevens Point:  Def. La Crosse 89-62; LOST at Platteville 84-65.
2. St. Thomas:  LOST at Concordia-Moorhead 67-57; Won at St. John's 82-63.
3. Occidental:  Def. Cal. Lutheran 67-63; LOST to Whittier 69-65.
4. UW-Whitewater:  Def. Oshkosh 66-51; def. River Falls 80-75.
5. Cal Lutheran:  LOST at Occidental 67-63; Won at Redlands 70-64.
6. Buena Vista:  LOST at Central 73-71; Def. Loras 80-79.
7. UW-Platteville:  Def. Eau Claire 75-58; Def. Stevens Point 84-65.
8. UW-Oshkosh:  LOST at Whitewater 66-51; LOST to Superior 77-67.

I think Platteville is clinging to life after their loss to Eau Claire tonight. 

Wednesday's rankings will obviously give us a better idea.  With nearly everyone losing last week, aside from Whitewater and Platteville, those two could be #1 and #2 in Wednesday's rankings.  Platteville tops #1 West Region Stevens Point, and while everyone else ahead of them lost (besides Whitewater), they could jump because they beat a regionally ranked opponent.  It could very well be:

1.  Whitewater
2.  Platteville
3.  Stevens Point

Get chalk to happen (St. Thomas, Oxy and BV to win their conference tourneys), that leaves the Point/Whitewater loser (best case scenario for Platteville) and Cal. Lutheran left, along with whomever replaces Oshkosh in the rankings.  At worst, they could be the #2 ranked team in the West Region and Point/Whitewater would probably go early.  You never know.

Despite the fact that Platteville just beat Point, I don't see them jumping FIVE full places to be on top of them.  Especially after last night.  They MIGHT have had some upward movement, especially due to other losses above them, but you've got to remember that they've just lost two straight, those being non-ranked teams.

With last night's loss, any gain they might have had will be lost.

WIAC fans just became HUGE fans of the West region conference favorites!

[pabegg]

Despite the fact that Platteville just beat Point, I don't see them jumping FIVE full places to be on top of them.  Especially after last night.  They MIGHT have had some upward movement, especially due to other losses above them, but you've got to remember that they've just lost two straight, those being non-ranked teams.

With last night's loss, any gain they might have had will be lost.

WIAC fans just became HUGE fans of the West region conference favorites!

Remember that the regional rankings will be based on games through Sunday, not last night. So last night's disaster isn't counted.

That having been said, I don't see Platteville jumping up that much.

[Mr. Downtown]

It could just be me, but I don't think the committee is going take many teams out of the West from the Pool C pool.

Probably the automatics and either Point or WW.

[pabegg]

How important is the last published regional ranking? I've done some research into this from the last six years.

In all but three cases, no team has won a Pool C bid without the teams ahead of them in the last published regional ranking also getting one.

Here's the picture from last year, for example:
Atlantic: #1 Stevens IN, #4 NJCU Out
East: #5 Rochester IN, #4 NYU Out (THIS IS ONE OF THE EXCEPTIONS)
Great Lakes: #4 Hope IN, #5 Ohio Northern Out
Mid-Atlantic: #6 Hood IN, #8 Scranton Out
Midwest: #1 Chicago IN, #5 Elmhurst Out
Northeast: #7 Brandeis IN, #8 Bates Out
South: #5 Mary Hardin-Baylor IN, #8 McMurry Out
West: #3 St. Johns IN, #4 UW-Oshkosh Out

Where there are gaps (such as #2 and #3 in Atlantic), these were Pool A or Pool B teams and therefore not relevant to the comparison.

What are the exceptions?

1) As noted above, in 2007, Rochester passed NYU into the tournament. Rochester went 1-0, while NYU went 0-1.

2) In 2006, #4 Utica passed #3 NYU into the tournament. NYU went 0-1 in the last week while Utica went 2-1.

3) In 2005, #6 Lebanon Valley passed #5 Scranton into the tournament. LV went 1-1 in the last week while Scranton went 0-1.

The obvious common bond among the three losers is that they went 0-1 for the week.

Just something to think about as we approach selection weekend.

[Hugenerd]

Do you think Rochester, Brandeis, or WashU get dropped with an 0-1 week?

[pabegg]

Do you think Rochester, Brandeis, or WashU get dropped with an 0-1 week?

No, they've already done enough to make it.

Although they would drop in the rankings, none of that would affect Pool C chances (Brandeis would end up behind whichever NESCAC contenders win in the semis, WashU and Rochester would only be caught by Pool A teams such as Chicago and potentially Brockport).

Only Chicago is in risk of having the 0-1 trap hit them this year. A 16-8 Chicago would probably be caught by the second place CCIW school and be in real trouble as far as making the tournament.

[John Gleich]

Despite the fact that Platteville just beat Point, I don't see them jumping FIVE full places to be on top of them.  Especially after last night.  They MIGHT have had some upward movement, especially due to other losses above them, but you've got to remember that they've just lost two straight, those being non-ranked teams.

With last night's loss, any gain they might have had will be lost.

WIAC fans just became HUGE fans of the West region conference favorites!

Remember that the regional rankings will be based on games through Sunday, not last night. So last night's disaster isn't counted.

That having been said, I don't see Platteville jumping up that much.

Ah... I didn't realize that the NCAA was going to release another regional rankings prior to the selection next Monday.  The point becomes moot when this week's games are taken into account, but...

[sac]

It helps Platteville that 5 teams ahead of them in the rankings lost, so they may move up 2 or 3 spots this week and then lose those same 2 or 3 spots for next weeks poll.

[gordonmann]

Ah... I didn't realize that the NCAA was going to release another regional rankings prior to the selection next Monday.  The point becomes moot when this week's games are taken into account, but...

My understanding is that the NCAA will have another regional rankings upon which it will make tournament selections, but those rankings will not be released.  To put it differently, this week's rankings (games through Sunday) will be the last ones we see.  There will be one more ranking but it won't be published.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Gordon - I was going to post the same. The NCAA will come out with a regional ranking on Wednesday that is based on games through Sunday.

The committees will then do another set of regional rankings on Sunday after the games are completed, but that is only for the national committee's use... not for public consumption.

[Greek Tragedy]

 

Despite the fact that Platteville just beat Point, I don't see them jumping FIVE full places to be on top of them.  Especially after last night.  They MIGHT have had some upward movement, especially due to other losses above them, but you've got to remember that they've just lost two straight, those being non-ranked teams.

With last night's loss, any gain they might have had will be lost.

WIAC fans just became HUGE fans of the West region conference favorites!

West
1. (LW6; 2-0) UW-Stevens Point 19-4 17-4 (WIAC) tied with Whitewater and Oshkosh
2. (LW2; 1-0) St. Thomas 20-3 18-2 (MIAC)
3. (LW1; 1-1) Occidental 19-3 12-2 (SCIAC) tied with Cal. Lutheran
4. (LW4; 1-1) UW-Whitewater 19-4 17-4 (WIAC) tied with Stevens Point and Oshkosh
5. (LW5; 2-0) Cal Lutheran 19-3 15-3 (SCIAC) tied with Occidental
6. (LW7; 1-0) Buena Vista 19-4 15-2 (IIAC)
7. (LW3; 0-2) UW-Platteville 17-6 15-5 (WIAC)
8. (LWNR; 1-0) UW-Oshkosh 17-6 14-5 (WIAC) tied with Stevens Point and Whitewater

Dropping out:  Loras-8th (1-0)

West
1. UW-Stevens Point:  Def. La Crosse 89-62; LOST at Platteville 84-65.
2. St. Thomas:  LOST at Concordia-Moorhead 67-57; Won at St. John's 82-63.
3. Occidental:  Def. Cal. Lutheran 67-63; LOST to Whittier 69-65.
4. UW-Whitewater:  Def. Oshkosh 66-51; def. River Falls 80-75.
5. Cal Lutheran:  LOST at Occidental 67-63; Won at Redlands 70-64.
6. Buena Vista:  LOST at Central 73-71; Def. Loras 80-79.
7. UW-Platteville:  Def. Eau Claire 75-58; Def. Stevens Point 84-65.
8. UW-Oshkosh:  LOST at Whitewater 66-51; LOST to Superior 77-67.

Point Special, you have to understand that last night's game doesn't mean anything to THIS WEEK'S rankings.  The only games that matter for Wednesday's rankings are their wins against Eau Claire last week and the win against Point on Saturday.  That puts Platteville at 2-0 while everyone else (aside from Whitewater) was 1-1. 

Cal. Lutheran and Point lost away to regionally ranked opponents while St. Thomas, Occidental and Buena Vista all lost to teams not ranked in the region.  If you look at last week's rankings and the results that determined those rankings, you'll see that St. Thomas, Cal. Lutheran and Buena Vista didn't lose, yet Point jumped St. Thomas and Cal. Lutheran to claim the #1 spot thanks to their wins against La Crosse and regionally ranked Whitewater.

On that basis, Platteville beating regionally ranked Point, going 2-0 while everyone else was 1-1 (again, aside from Whitewater, and Oshkosh who went 0-2), I think Platteville definitely has a shot at #2 in Wednesday's regional ranking.  I definitely didn't think that Point would jump 5 spots to #1 even though two teams ahead of them also went without a loss.

Oh yeah, news to me about losing two straight...that only effected last week's rankings, doesn't matter (I don't think!)

[Greek Tragedy]

It helps Platteville that 5 teams ahead of them in the rankings lost, so they may move up 2 or 3 spots this week and then lose those same 2 or 3 spots for next weeks poll.

It's tourney time.  I don't think it matters too much because if those other teams don't lose this week, they get Pool A bids (thus Platteville doesn't have to worry about them).  If they lose, then they are in the same boat as Platteville, another loss.  I guess it depends on when and who those teams lose to.

[John Gleich]

Despite the fact that Platteville just beat Point, I don't see them jumping FIVE full places to be on top of them.  Especially after last night.  They MIGHT have had some upward movement, especially due to other losses above them, but you've got to remember that they've just lost two straight, those being non-ranked teams.

With last night's loss, any gain they might have had will be lost.

WIAC fans just became HUGE fans of the West region conference favorites!

West
1. (LW6; 2-0) UW-Stevens Point 19-4 17-4 (WIAC) tied with Whitewater and Oshkosh
2. (LW2; 1-0) St. Thomas 20-3 18-2 (MIAC)
3. (LW1; 1-1) Occidental 19-3 12-2 (SCIAC) tied with Cal. Lutheran
4. (LW4; 1-1) UW-Whitewater 19-4 17-4 (WIAC) tied with Stevens Point and Oshkosh
5. (LW5; 2-0) Cal Lutheran 19-3 15-3 (SCIAC) tied with Occidental
6. (LW7; 1-0) Buena Vista 19-4 15-2 (IIAC)
7. (LW3; 0-2) UW-Platteville 17-6 15-5 (WIAC)
8. (LWNR; 1-0) UW-Oshkosh 17-6 14-5 (WIAC) tied with Stevens Point and Whitewater

Dropping out:  Loras-8th (1-0)

West
1. UW-Stevens Point:  Def. La Crosse 89-62; LOST at Platteville 84-65.
2. St. Thomas:  LOST at Concordia-Moorhead 67-57; Won at St. John's 82-63.
3. Occidental:  Def. Cal. Lutheran 67-63; LOST to Whittier 69-65.
4. UW-Whitewater:  Def. Oshkosh 66-51; def. River Falls 80-75.
5. Cal Lutheran:  LOST at Occidental 67-63; Won at Redlands 70-64.
6. Buena Vista:  LOST at Central 73-71; Def. Loras 80-79.
7. UW-Platteville:  Def. Eau Claire 75-58; Def. Stevens Point 84-65.
8. UW-Oshkosh:  LOST at Whitewater 66-51; LOST to Superior 77-67.

Point Special, you have to understand that last night's game doesn't mean anything to THIS WEEK'S rankings.  The only games that matter for Wednesday's rankings are their wins against Eau Claire last week and the win against Point on Saturday.  That puts Platteville at 2-0 while everyone else (aside from Whitewater) was 1-1. 

Cal. Lutheran and Point lost away to regionally ranked opponents while St. Thomas, Occidental and Buena Vista all lost to teams not ranked in the region.  If you look at last week's rankings and the results that determined those rankings, you'll see that St. Thomas, Cal. Lutheran and Buena Vista didn't lose, yet Point jumped St. Thomas and Cal. Lutheran to claim the #1 spot thanks to their wins against La Crosse and regionally ranked Whitewater.

On that basis, Platteville beating regionally ranked Point, going 2-0 while everyone else was 1-1 (again, aside from Whitewater, and Oshkosh who went 0-2), I think Platteville definitely has a shot at #2 in Wednesday's regional ranking.  I definitely didn't think that Point would jump 5 spots to #1 even though two teams ahead of them also went without a loss.

Oh yeah, news to me about losing two straight...that only effected last week's rankings, doesn't matter (I don't think!)

I didn't realize there would be another regional ranking put out.  I thought we had just the final one for next week.

[pabegg]

York PA goes down to Salisbury 76-71. This ends any Pool C chances for York, which were pretty slim to start with.

A week ago, both Yorks (NY and PA) were favorites to return to the tournament. Now both are done.

So far, it looks like all of the other contenders have made their way through.

[Hugenerd]

Below is a table listing all the conferences, ranked in the order of the average OWP for all the teams in the conference (all statistics include only in-region games and are taken from the SOS data on the d3hoops.com site).  AVG. WP is the average winning percentage for teams in the conference (followed by the standard deviation for that statistic), AVG. OWP is the average OWP for all teams in the conference (followed by the standard deviation for that statistic), AVG OOWP is the average OOWP for all teams in the conference (followed by the standard deviation for that statistic, WP HI/LO is the ratio of the team with teh highest OWP in that conference divided by the team with the lowest OWP, and WP/OWP is the ratio of conference winning percentage to conference OWP.  I just want to point out a few things:

1) OWP and OOWP standard deviations are generally very low for teams within their conference, meaning that teams, on average, have similar OWP within conferences (there are some exceptions).

2) Most conferences have an OWP HI/LO in the range of 1.15-1.25, signifying that they play a decent mix of teams in their region, conferences above 1.25 usually have one or two teams that are playing very sub-par out of conference opponents and therefore bringing down the conference OWP, conferences with OWP HI/LO's in the range 1.1-1.15 tend to schedule many of the same teams for their out of conference games (slightly inbred schedule) and teams below 1.1 tend to have either alot of conference games, lots of out-of region games, and/or very few out of conference opponents to choose from causing everyone to play the same teams out of conference (highly inbred schedule).

3) Finally, I would like to draw your attention to the WP/OWP column.  For nearly every conference, the ratio of overall winning percentage divided by opponents winning percentage is almost exactly 1.  This tells us that any given teams OWP is highly dependent on the conferences winning percentage, more than their own.  This comes about because in most conferences, you play the majority of your games in conference, which causes your teams OWP to be influenced greatly by not only your results, but that of every team in your conference.  In fact, if you do a least-squared regression on the conference winning percentage versus the conferences OWP, you get a high correlation (R^2= 0.89, [AVG. OWP] = 0.6741*[AVG. WP] + 0.1652).

If anybody wants the data for any given conference, just ask, I didnt want to post all 38 conference's data because it would take way too much space and nobody would read it (hopefully someone will read this).

Conference	AVG. WP	ST.DEV.	AVG. OWP	ST.DEV.	AVG. OOWP	ST.DEV.	OWP HI/LO	WP/OWP
UAA	0.6209	0.1823	0.5976	0.0403	0.5645	0.0099	1.2201	1.04
MACC	0.6217	0.1296	0.5862	0.0295	0.5393	0.0086	1.1270	1.06
NESCAC	0.6614	0.1890	0.5791	0.0308	0.5399	0.0106	1.1748	1.14
NEWMAC	0.5516	0.1651	0.5629	0.0508	0.5397	0.0090	1.3266	0.98
CCIW	0.5730	0.1701	0.5579	0.0358	0.5390	0.0112	1.2079	1.03
WIAC	0.5331	0.2270	0.5387	0.0343	0.5266	0.0093	1.1911	0.99
SCIAC	0.5251	0.2543	0.5333	0.0264	0.5214	0.0083	1.1566	0.98
LEC	0.5283	0.2687	0.5285	0.0224	0.5211	0.0057	1.1374	1.00
OAC	0.5259	0.2131	0.5274	0.0192	0.5210	0.0032	1.1235	1.00
ODAC	0.5417	0.2379	0.5270	0.0206	0.5185	0.0085	1.1500	1.03
SUNYAC	0.5164	0.2697	0.5251	0.0322	0.5186	0.0105	1.2076	0.98
IIAC	0.5049	0.2136	0.5241	0.0270	0.5180	0.0091	1.1776	0.96
NJAC	0.5232	0.2074	0.5241	0.0183	0.5103	0.0092	1.1335	1.00
E8	0.5210	0.2332	0.5207	0.0272	0.5153	0.0103	1.2065	1.00
MIAC	0.5167	0.2167	0.5175	0.0178	0.5116	0.0061	1.1189	1.00
MASCAC	0.5283	0.1635	0.5130	0.0280	0.5003	0.0164	1.1474	1.03
CC	0.5137	0.2615	0.5098	0.0135	0.5085	0.0048	1.0885	1.01
LL	0.5051	0.2182	0.5071	0.0380	0.5070	0.0072	1.305	1.00
ASC	0.5088	0.2093	0.5051	0.0120	0.5047	0.0042	1.0948	1.01
SCAC	0.5250	0.2863	0.5044	0.0141	0.4985	0.0087	1.0987	1.04
MACF	0.4624	0.2785	0.5004	0.0230	0.5027	0.0107	1.1355	0.92
MWC	0.5072	0.1982	0.4983	0.0295	0.5035	0.0066	1.2004	1.02
USAC	0.4876	0.1102	0.4959	0.0298	0.4953	0.0072	1.1798	0.98
CAC	0.4934	0.1779	0.4899	0.0316	0.4939	0.0087	1.2195	1.01
AMCC	0.4932	0.2185	0.4873	0.0234	0.4862	0.0050	1.1656	1.01
NWC	0.5018	0.1912	0.4866	0.0231	0.4910	0.0032	1.1606	1.03
NCAC	0.4745	0.2680	0.4862	0.0272	0.4883	0.0062	1.2435	0.98
HCAC	0.4814	0.1796	0.4857	0.0305	0.4906	0.0046	1.2151	0.99
MIAA	0.4760	0.2720	0.4844	0.0250	0.4893	0.0054	1.1549	0.98
PnAC	0.4649	0.2358	0.4784	0.0281	0.4848	0.0121	1.2225	0.97
GNAC	0.5205	0.2409	0.4781	0.0260	0.4849	0.0091	1.1814	1.09
CUNYAC	0.4406	0.2203	0.4723	0.0459	0.4828	0.0087	1.4820	0.93
CCC	0.4282	0.1652	0.4663	0.0284	0.4780	0.0141	1.2371	0.92
NAC	0.4310	0.2124	0.4501	0.0323	0.4737	0.0140	1.2427	0.96
PrAC	0.4019	0.2080	0.4463	0.0417	0.4606	0.0229	1.2831	0.90
SLIAC	0.4368	0.2867	0.4458	0.0393	0.4598	0.0120	1.2935	0.98
NEAC	0.3774	0.1860	0.3934	0.0275	0.4403	0.0048	1.2324	0.96