Pool C

[Ralph Turner]

Good morning Chris,


About 10 pages back (earlier this week), I talked about the impact of the single round robin.

Click here.

About that part of the thread is where the real theoretical dissection of the new system begins among us posters.

Using Tufts as an example, the Jumbos are 1-9 in the NESCAC.  If we assume that 2-16 is a reasonable outcome in double round-robin, their 11-13 goes to 4-21.  There would be similar impacts to all of the NESCAC schools in-region records.  Amherst's OWP and OOWP are not nearly as impressive when evaluated on an "apples and apples" basis, e.g., the CCIW or the WIAC.

[Knightstalker]

It appears that if William Paterson and Stockton both make it to the NJAC championship game, the loser would be the top C candidate from the Atlantic.  Not sure if they would get in, but they would be considered.  I think they are the only two really serious contenders for a C bid in the Atlantic, Farmingdale is a long shot.

[smedindy]

The CCC is also a single round robin. But they seem to be the recipients of the death blows by the NESCAC. The CCC could probably break into divisions. Heck, the NESCAC could divisionize itself and play 13 conference games. That'd be better, right?

[Knightstalker]

Any conference with 10+ teams would be smart to break into divisions and play double round robin in division and single with the other division.  Especially the teams in the East, Northeast, Atlantic and Mid-Atlantic regions, there are so many good regional opponents within a few hours for the majority of schools.

[Just Bill]

Interestingly, the NATHC who gains their Pool A bid next season is planning on splitting into divisions.  They plan to have 4 North teams, 4 South teams and four centrally located teams that rotate between the two divisions from year to year.  Thanks NATHC for keeping it simple!   

[LogShow]

Any conference with 10+ teams would be smart to break into divisions and play double round robin in division and single with the other division.  Especially the teams in the East, Northeast, Atlantic and Mid-Atlantic regions, there are so many good regional opponents within a few hours for the majority of schools.

I like that idea...problems solved!

[Ralph Turner]

Interestingly, the NATHC who gains their Pool A bid next season is planning on splitting into divisions.  They plan to have 4 North teams, 4 South teams and four centrally located teams that rotate between the two divisions from year to year.  Thanks NATHC for keeping it simple!   

I am glad to hear how they were going to handle this.

It must be a pragmatic attempt to address the geography.  They really don't break into a pure north-south, and they have 12 men and 13 women.  If they accept Mt Mary as a 14th women's  member (a big "If' Mt Mary passes the provisional requirements), then that is even more reason to have some uniqueness to the divisions.

Those schools in the middle will bounce around like a shuttlecock!

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

By the way... something I have been thinking about. Despite the great work of crunching numbers by "pabegg", we need to becareful and assume that is how the Pool C will be divided up. The NCAA isn't automated and they certainly have plenty of determining factors before they make a decision.

That being said, if the teams are selected exactly how "pabegg" has them in the computer system... we should send the program to the NCAA and tell them to not worry about selecting teams formally, we will know exactly what to look for!

[Just Bill]

Interestingly, the NATHC who gains their Pool A bid next season is planning on splitting into divisions.  They plan to have 4 North teams, 4 South teams and four centrally located teams that rotate between the two divisions from year to year.  Thanks NATHC for keeping it simple!   

I am glad to hear how they were going to handle this.

It must be a pragmatic attempt to address the geography.  They really don't break into a pure north-south, and they have 12 men and 13 women.  If they accept Mt Mary as a 14th women's  member (a big "If' Mt Mary passes the provisional requirements), then that is even more reason to have some uniqueness to the divisions.

Those schools in the middle will bounce around like a shuttlecock!

The NATHC isn't thrilled about the prospect of Mt. Mary.  I'm not sure they would be admitted if and when they pass provisional NCAA status

There have been rumblings that Maranatha and their new president might decide to drop the NCAA affiliation altogether and go strictly NCCAA.  The NATHC is starting football in 2008 and there's some question whether MBBC will be able to complete the season with a healthy squad.  That might be signal the beginning of the end for MBBC in the NCAA and the NATHC.

[hickory_cornhusker]

Interestingly, the NATHC who gains their Pool A bid next season is planning on splitting into divisions.  They plan to have 4 North teams, 4 South teams and four centrally located teams that rotate between the two divisions from year to year.  Thanks NATHC for keeping it simple!   

I live where the NATHC is and I tried to split them into divisions but it isn't easy using geography. The 5 Illinois schools of aurora (aurora), benedictine (lisle), concordia-il (river forest), dominican(river forest), and rockford (rockford) are in the South. that would be easy. And so is Marian (Fond du Lac) and Lakeland (Howards Grove) in the north. I guess Concordia-WI (Mequon) and Maranatha (Watertown) are the next fartherst north. Unfortunately for the three teams in the middle that I have are Edgewood (madison), Wisconsin Lutheran (Milwaukee) and MSOE (Milwaukee). Because of travel I would put Edgewood in the north since they are off in the west compared to the other schools and multiple trips to river forest are worse than trips to howards grove. That means my last two schools are Wisconsin Lutheran and MSOE. i feel stupid having to split the Milwaukee schools into seperate divisions but if I must MSOE is further North by a couple of city blocks. Alverno for womens can be thrown into either one. If Mt. Mary were to join they would be in north and alverno would be in the south.

That means my divisions are:
North- Concordia-WI, Edgewood, Lakeland, Maranatha, Marian, MSOE, (Mt. Mary if needed)
South-Aurora, Benedictine, Concordia-IL, Dominican, Rockford, Wisconsin Lutheran, (Alverno if needed)

I have no clue what the NATHC really has in mind.

[pabegg]

One of the factors in the selection process is record against ranked teams. This is obviously a simple calculation as long as you know who the ranked teams are.

We know who is currently ranked. How could this change based on this week's results?

Here are my thoughts, by region:

Northeast: Top 6 will still be there. Trinity, Middlebury, Emerson, and Elms could drop out. Bates and Salem St are potential replacements. If Emerson or Elms are upset, will they fall below the idle Bates? With a SF loss, would Trinity or Middlebury fall out of the top 10?

East: Top 2 are safe. St. Lawrence, Brockport, and Stevens could drop out. Nazareth, Oswego, and Geneseo are potential replacements. Oswego and Geneseo would have to get the Pool A autobid in order to join the rankings.

Atlantic: Top 3 are safe. York and St Joseph's LI could drop out. Ramapo and Montclair are potential replacements. Old Westbury would have been the first replacement, but they went and lost in their first tournament game.

Mid-Atlantic: Top 5 are safe. Albright, Lycoming, and Scranton could drop out. Messiah, Kings, and Juniata are potential replacements.

South: Top 6 are safe. Randolph-Macon and Mississippi College could drop out. DePauw is the only potential replacement I see.

Great Lakes: Top 4 are safe. PSU-Behrend and Albion could drop out. Ohio Wesleyan and Carnegie Mellon are potential replacements. What happens if CMU beats Rochester this Saturday? Would they replace a PSU-Behrend that loses in the AMCC tournament?

Midwest: Top 5 are safe. Elmhurst, Aurora, and Webster could drop out. Illinois Wesleyan and Defiance are potential replacements. Is there any question that IWU would be ranked as the CCIW tournament champion?

West: Top 5 are safe. Platteville, Cal Lutheran, and Loras could drop out. But who could replace them? The Carleton/Gustavus winner, perhaps. Is there any chance that Nebraska Wesleyan or Chapman gets ranked with a 2-0 weekend. Obviously Platteville has set themselves up to drop from the rankings with their 0-1 week (they should be below CLU and Loras), but they won't drop out unless there's someone there to take their place.

Actually, the one thing I realized is how tight things are in the west. There's probably less distance between 1 and 8 this week in the West than say 3 and 4 in the Mid-Atlantic or the Midwest. So there could be a lot of movement within that top 8 this week, which of course affects seeding as well.

[Just Bill]

That means my divisions are:
North- Concordia-WI, Edgewood, Lakeland, Maranatha, Marian, MSOE, (Mt. Mary if needed)
South-Aurora, Benedictine, Concordia-IL, Dominican, Rockford, Wisconsin Lutheran, (Alverno if needed)

I have no clue what the NATHC really has in mind.

From what I know, the NATHC is planning on this:

South: Dominican, Benedictine, Aurora, Concordia Chicago
North:  Lakeland, Marian, Concordia Wisconsin, MSOE
Alternating rotation:  Edgewood, Rockford, Maranatha, Wis. Lutheran (Alverno)

(I could have flip-flopped MSOE and WLC. I'm not sure)

I like the two divisions, but I'm not really a fan of the schools alternating between the divisions.

[pabegg]

Tonight's tournaments with a Pool C impact:

In all cases, the Pool C candidate is listed first.

GNAC SF
Emerson vs. St. Joseph's ME

NJAC SF
Richard Stockton vs. Ramapo
William Paterson vs. Montclair

Skyline SF
Farmingdale vs. SUNY-Maritime

SLIAC SF
Webster vs. Maryville MO

IIAC SF
Buena Vista vs. Dubuque
Loras vs. Coe

MIAC SF
St. Thomas vs. Bethel


Analysis

St. Thomas would be a Pool C lock with a loss tonight.
Buena Vista and Loras could probably absorb a loss tonight, but it would push them onto the bubble; on the other hand, a win should lock up a Pool C bid, but I'm just not sure about the West this year, given how tightly bunched #1 through #8 are.
For Emerson and Richard Stockton, a loss would be nearly fatal (the UW-Platteville category)
Farmingdale, William Paterson and Webster would be done with a loss tonight.

Current Pool C contenders (no games left to play)

Bates
UW-Platteville

[John Gleich]

Yes, but Cal Lu beat Stevens Point back on New Year's Day, and if Point ends up in Pool A, it's gotta help Cal Lu's Pool C chances at least a little (in OWP if nothing else).  I think that was probably sciacguru's line of reasoning.

As a Pointer fan, that was such a painful loss to listen to! 

I totally agree...  That one pretty much sucked!  To have a 15 point lead at the half and to get killed on the boards, and then still to have opportunities to win!  Still gives me a bad taste in my mouth!

[pabegg]

Loras plays Coe (yes, it's unlisted).