Pool C

[Gregory Sager]

Losing the remainder of their games and the first round of the MIAA would mean Hope would lose to Adrian, Alma, Tri-State and Adrian/Alma/Olivet.

Even if Wooster wins on Saturday (vs. Wabash), if they lost all the rest of their games that would mean they lost two home games to Kenyon (or perhaps Kenyon and Allegheny, depending on how things shake out, but that's not much better.)

I remember one year someone on Posting Up raised the same question as Hammer right around this time of the season: Are there any Pool C sure bets yet? What would happen if this team or that team in the Top Five lost the rest of their games? Someone with a morbid sense of humor referred to the thread as "bus crash speculations".

[gordonmann]

Baruch could be a lock for a Pool C.  They finish conference play today, so they can only pick up 2 more loses for three total before the NCAA Tournament.

[Knightstalker]

Thinking about it I think Gordon is right, in fact I think Baruch is a virtual lock for a pool C if they don't win their conference.

[Coach C]

Based on the f#%&ed up criteria, they are in.

C

[gordonmann]

And we may actually get to see if this theory plays out.

Lehman thrashes Baruch 90-73 as D3hoops.com All-American Sekani Francis goes for 27 points and 18 rebounds.

Bearcats open the CUNYAC tournament next Saturday.

For what it's worth, I humbly submit Amherst as a Pool C lock, too.  They have just one regional loss at the close of regular season play.

[Greek Tragedy]

Stout shoots themselves in the foot by losing at home to Point, blowing an 18 point lead with sometime like 13 minutes to go.  Big blow for Stout since they travel to La Crosse for the conference finale.  As Sager and Coleman, among others have stated, if Stout was going to go 1-1 in the last two games, it hurts a lot more to lose at home to Point than it does to lose on the road in La Crosse.  Stout only has four in-region losses now, and if we're talking Pool C bids here, five may get them in, but now Whitewater, of all teams, leads the whacky WIAC. 

Don't get me wrong, I'm happy (and surprised) that Point won! 

[David Collinge]

As Sager and Coleman, among others have stated, if Stout was going to go 1-1 in the last two games, it hurts a lot more to lose at home to Point than it does to lose on the road in La Crosse.

Why is this?  Do you mean it hurts them more vis-a-vis the WIAC race?  Because If you are looking strictly at Pool C, it seems like the game to win is La Crosse.  From a QoWI standpoint it's a wash; each game has a "base value" (based on home/road and win % of opponent), to which you add 0 for a loss and 8 for a win.  It wouldn't matter which game gets the +8.  (Although I suppose it could make a difference if beating a team pushed them to a lower win % QoWI threshold; is that what you mean?)  But La Crosse is (regionally) ranked, and Stevens Point is not, so beating La Crosse gives Stout a "win over regionally ranked opponent" (presuming they are still ranked whenever that nosecount is done).  That seems to be the only Pool C differentiation between these games, if Stout had to win one and lose the other.

[Greek Tragedy]

After Friday's results, I posted my thoughts regarding the NESCAC...not to be left out, here's what I think about the CCIW.

It looks like they might just get one Pool C bid in now that the weekend games are over.  All the contenders have TWO conference games left and then the conference tourney.  Big upsets filled the week in the CCIW and none of it helped those teams that want to get a shot at a Pool C bid.

Augie-They lost two in a row, but are still a solid 18-2 in region.  Even if they lose their remaining three (2 conference and the first round of the conference tourney) they should be in good shape at 18-5 to get in.  They finish with Ill. Wes. and at North Central.

Ill. Wes.-At 13-4, after their loss to Wheaton, I think they must win both of their remaining games, at Augie and home to North Park.  If they split, that leaves them at 14-5 and then a 6th loss in the conference tourney...major bubble.

Elmhurst-With six in-region losses already, I don't see them getting a Pool C bid with seven losses.

North Central-A big blow to Pool C chances after losing one at home to Carthage.  5 in-region losses with a trip to Elmhurst and a home date with Augie to go.  They only have 12 in-region wins too, so their winning % is hardly eye catching, especially if they pick up a 6th loss prior to the CCIW tourney.

In my eyes, it looks like one Pool A team and one Pool C team from the CCIW.  If Ill. Wes. can sweep the last two (including vs. Augie) and then lose in the conference tourney, while Augie falls...that would be a way to get two Pool C teams in.  Both Ill. Wes. and Augie would both have at most five in-region losses, which should get them in.

And now the WIAC

Stout-Stout is really the only team with Pool C aspirations in the WIAC and they took a big hit with a home loss to Stevens Point tonight.  With the setback, it gives Stout four in-region losses and a win at La Crosse is a must win.  1.) it keeps them at four in-region losses and 2.) a road win against La Crosse will make up the QOWI points they lost by losing at home to Point!  

Whitewater and La Crosse already have 5 in-region losses, though La Crosse's 17 wins looks a lot better than Whitewater's 13.  If La Crosse takes down Stout next Saturday and then makes it to the Finals of the WIAC tourney and loses, that would put them at 20-6...real borderline, though their QOWI is 2nd in the WIAC, behind Stout.

Back to the NESCAC

Amherst is a lock.

Well, Trinity did beat Bates tonight, which gives Bates a 15-5 record.  If they go 2-1 in their conference tourney, that puts them at 17-6...ummm.

Tufts looks like they are in good shape with a solid 18-4 regional record.  Trinity has four less wins  than Tufts and I think their QOWI is lower than Tufts.  Tufts also beat Trinity.  

I think, obviously regarding Pool C, Amherst and either Tufts or Trinity could get in.  I don't see both of them getting in and I already feel Bates is on the outside looking in.  

Just my thoughts on three conferences.

[Greek Tragedy]

DC,

At first I was thinking that a loss at home to Point would hurt more than losing at La Crosse.  But the QOWI points turn out to be the same.

W vs. Point 12 points
L at La Crosse 7 points

L vs. Point 4 points
W at La Crosse 15 points

I was also thinking about the wins vs. regional opponents stuff too.  So I guess I'm half right! 

I'm pretty sure Coleman said it on the North Western Wisconsin radio show this morning and I believe I remember Sager posting something like that...don't want to misquote them & get myself into trouble, so I'll with drawal that first part of my statement! lol.

[David Collinge]

Just as a mathematical rule of thumb, if you ignore the possibility of teams shifting their in-region-win-% plateaus, a 1-1 record against two regional opponents produces the same QoWI regardless of which team is the 1 and which is the...uh, 1. 

Let me try that again.  If a team wins N games in-region, from a QoWI standpoint it doesn't matter which teams those N wins were recorded against.  Your QoWI score will be determined by your regional opponents' regional win %, plus one point for every road game (won or lost), plus 8 points for every win.

Example: you play 4 games, home/road against Goodcollege, which is 20-0 in regional games not against you, and home/road against Badtech, which is 0-20 in regional games not against you.  You win 2 of these games.  Your QoWI will be (6+6+0+0) [representing the points for the in-region records of GC and BT] +2 (for the two road games) +16 (for the two wins) = 30 QoWI points/4 games, or 7.500.  The result is the same if you
*beat BT twice (win at home=8, win on road=9) and lose to GC twice (lose at home=6, lose on road=7) [total is 8+9+6+7=30/4, or 7.5], or
*beat GC twice (win at home=14, win on road=15) and lose to BT twice (lose at home=0, lose on road=1) [total is 14+15+0+1=30/4=7.5], or
*split with each team (you get the drift).

Once you know how many regional wins a team has, you can figure their QoWI by looking at their schedule without bothering to look at their actual results.

[Knightstalker]

Based on the f#%&ed up criteria, they are in.

C

Coach, I know the criteria needs a lot of work but I wouldn't feel bad about a team like Baruch getting a Pool C bid if they lose their conference tournament.  They have had an incredible season for a CUNY team.  Like Rhodes Scholar said, this is probably the best season a CUNY team has had since Hunter in 98 and did ok in the tournament that year.  Baruch will probably get their heads handed to them in the first or possibly second round, but these kids have earned a trip in my opinion.  If there wasn't an expanded field I would say no, but there are enough bids this year for team like this.

[Pat Coleman]

DC,

At first I was thinking that a loss at home to Point would hurt more than losing at La Crosse.  But the QOWI points turn out to be the same.

W vs. Point 12 points
L at La Crosse 7 points

L vs. Point 4 points
W at La Crosse 15 points

I was also thinking about the wins vs. regional opponents stuff too.  So I guess I'm half right! 

I'm pretty sure Coleman said it on the North Western Wisconsin radio show this morning and I believe I remember Sager posting something like that...don't want to misquote them & get myself into trouble, so I'll with drawal that first part of my statement! lol.

I only really ended up talking about WIAC women's basketball on the show yesterday. Men's basketball discussion was more national in scope.

[Ralph Turner]

...I'm pretty sure Coleman said it on the North Western Wisconsin radio show this morning ...

Is that North Western Wisconsin radio show archived anywhere?

What would be good is to have archived hyperlinks to D3 related interviews and programming?   Thanks.

[Greek Tragedy]

wmeq.com from 8 am to 10 am on Saturdays.  At 9 am, they interview former Pointer coach Jack Bennett as he is listed as a consultant.  They also talk to the men's and women's coaches of Stout.  Aside from that, they talk to high school coaches.

[Pat Coleman]

Updated men's QOWI through Sunday, the ones that will be used in this week's regional rankings:

1-10
Amherst     12.091     21-1
Lawrence    11.444    18-0
Trinity (Texas)    11.188    14-2
Worcester Polytech    11.143    18-3
Mississippi College    10.950    19-1
Carnegie Mellon    10.938    13-3
York (Pa.)    10.905    19-2
Cortland State    10.900    19-1
Occidental    10.833    11-1
St. John Fisher    10.789    18-1
               
11-20
Wooster    10.737    18-1
Augustana    10.700    18-2
Tufts    10.682    18-4
Wittenberg    10.667    16-2
Lincoln    10.563    12-4
Virginia Wesleyan    10.522    20-3
Illinois Wesleyan    10.471    13-4
Transylvania    10.364    18-4
Baldwin-Wallace    10.333    19-2

21-30
Hope    10.267    13-2
Carroll    10.263    17-2
Gordon    10.250    18-2
William Paterson    10.238    15-6
UW-La Crosse    10.227    17-5
Calvin    10.200    9-1
Baruch    10.190    19-2
New Jersey    10.158    14-5
Randolph-Macon    10.143    16-5
Trinity (Conn.)    10.111    14-4

31-40
Rochester    10.056    13-5
Bates    10.050    15-5
Widener    10.048    18-3
St. Thomas    10.045    17-5
Carleton    10.000    15-4
Howard Payne    9.950    15-5
SUNY-Farmingdale    9.947    15-4
Washington U.    9.875    11-5
Ursinus    9.857    17-4
Wartburg    9.842    16-3

41-50
Albion    9.833    10-2
Puget Sound    9.800    13-2
Lakeland    9.800    16-4
Fisk    9.769    9-4
Westfield State    9.762    14-7
UW-Stout    9.737    15-4
Johns Hopkins    9.684    15-4
Alvernia    9.667    18-3
Keene State    9.650    14-6
Christopher Newport    9.636    9-2

51-60
UW-Whitewater    9.611    13-5
Maryville (Tenn.)    9.600    14-6
Whitworth    9.600    15-5
Williams    9.591    15-7
Rhode Island College    9.545    15-7
Plymouth State    9.522    15-8
MIT    9.500    13-7
Southwestern    9.500    13-5
Catholic    9.474    14-5
McMurry    9.450    15-5

61-70
Salem State    9.429    15-6
New Jersey City    9.429    14-7
UW-Oshkosh    9.421    12-7
Elmhurst    9.421    13-6
Albright    9.421    12-7
Wheaton (Mass.)    9.400    13-7
Hanover    9.389    12-6
Hamilton    9.389    15-3
Richard Stockton    9.381    13-8
Willamette    9.353    15-2

71-80
North Central    9.353    12-5
UW-Stevens Point    9.350    13-7
Nebraska Wesleyan    9.333    5-1
Lake Erie    9.278    15-3
Franklin    9.250    15-5
Messiah    9.250    14-6
Bethany    9.250    16-4
Rutgers-Newark    9.227    15-7
Emmanuel    9.190    16-5
Elms    9.167    14-4

81-90
Mary Hardin-Baylor    9.143    15-6
Mount St. Mary    9.100    15-5
Brockport State    9.056    11-7
Utica    9.048    16-5
Ramapo    9.000    12-7
Milwaukee Engineering    9.000    14-6
Endicott    9.000    12-7
Coast Guard    9.000    14-6
Centre    9.000    12-6
Bowdoin    9.000    12-7

91-100
Averett    9.000    12-5
Scranton    8.952    15-6
Manhattanville    8.952    13-8
Oswego State    8.952    16-5
Loras    8.950    13-7
Elizabethtown    8.950    12-8
Chicago    8.941    10-7
Hardin-Simmons    8.905    14-7
Norwich    8.900    15-5
Mass-Boston    8.900    12-8