Pool C

[pabegg]

Assuming all of the conference winners (top ranked west region teams) win their conference tourneys.  What are Whitworth's chances of getting an at-large, assuming they get one more in-region win and then lose in the NWC championship game?

Let's assume no upsets in the conference tourneys in the West and the three WIAC'S finish at the top.

West Region
1. St. Thomas 22-0 22-0
2. Puget Sound 21-2 18-0
3. UW-Whitewater 20-3 19-3
4. UW-Stevens Point 20-3 19-3
5. UW-Platteville 20-3 15-3
6. Buena Vista 22-2 19-2
7. Claremont-Mudd-Scripps 16-6 14-4
8. Whitworth 18-5 16-5

The first two WIAC's come off the table in a hurry.

Now we are looking at 17-6 teams around the country.

My first impression is that Whitworth is comfortably in that C13-C18 bubble.

I think that you should hope for Chapman and CMS to do well and give you a playoff game at Puget Sound.  That has to be a first round bracket where Whitworth plays CMS in the first game and UPS gets Chapman.

I would agree that Whitworth will be under consideration in this scenario, but their chances depend on the number of upsets elsewhere.

If Whitworth gets in as a C, they're definitely heading back to Puget Sound. If Chapman doesn't make it, they'll be joined by the SCIAC champ and someone else; if Chapman does make it, it's too early to tell what will happen.

If Whitworth grabs the Pool A bid, UPS isn't guaranteed of hosting and then a number of scenarios can take place.

[pabegg]

My first thought was that the East Regional Committee injected a dose of sanity by 'flipping" SLU and Hamilton when evaluating the teams versus the numbers (numbers as we see them from pabegg's calculations.)

I think that is why we don't want something "carved in stone".

They didn't flip them. The rankings have been Ithaca - St. Lawrence - Hamilton all four weeks.

[Ralph Turner]

My first thought was that the East Regional Committee injected a dose of sanity by 'flipping" SLU and Hamilton when evaluating the teams versus the numbers (numbers as we see them from pabegg's calculations.)

I think that is why we don't want something "carved in stone".

They didn't flip them. The rankings have been Ithaca - St. Lawrence - Hamilton all four weeks.

Duh...
thanks!  +1!

[pabegg]

Last things first. Wednesday's results provided no upsets that will impact the Pool C standings.

Tonight is my first attempt to look at who I think is in tournament position based on the regional rankings rather than the numbers. It is highly unlikely that the "unseen" final regional rankings will be much different from this week's rankings.

Based on the regional rankings released earlier today, I'd tend to think that the following 31 are in with Pool C's if they need them (obviously if we have a huge run of upsets, not all of these would get in). Some of the bottom teams in each region might be in trouble with an upset loss (e.g. Bridgewater State will be in if they lose to Salem State in the MASCAC final but might be out if they lose to Westfield State in the semi).

Atlantic Region
1. Richard Stockton 23-2 20-2
2. Farmingdale State 23-2 23-2

East Region
1. Ithaca 24-1 22-1
2. St. Lawrence 19-5 17-5
3. Hamilton 18-6 16-2

Great Lakes Region
1. John Carroll 20-4 18-3
2. Capital 22-3 20-3

Middle Atlantic Region
1. St. Mary's (Md.) 21-4 18-2
2. Franklin & Marshall 21-4 20-4
3. DeSales 20-5 19-5
4. Widener 20-5 18-5

Midwest Region
1. Wheaton (Ill.) 22-3 18-3
3. Elmhurst 19-6 19-6
4. Transylvania 19-5 16-3

Northeast Region
1. Worcester Tech 20-4 20-3
2. Middlebury 22-3 20-2
4. Rhode Island College 21-4 21-4
5. Mass-Dartmouth 22-3 20-3
6. Salem State 20-5 19-5
7. Bridgewater State 18-6 17-4

South Region
1. Trinity (Texas) 22-3 19-3
2. Texas-Dallas 21-4 19-4
3. Guilford 21-4 20-4
4. Randolph-Macon 20-5 18-2
5. Centre 20-4 16-4

West Region
1. St. Thomas 25-0 24-0
2. Puget Sound 23-2 20-0
3. UW-Stevens Point 21-4 20-4
4. UW-Whitewater 21-4 20-4
5. UW-Platteville 21-4 16-4
6. Buena Vista 23-2 20-2

Of these 31, there are 22 conferences represented, so there could be as few as 9 Pool C bids out of this group.

Of the remaining teams, Brandeis and Carnegie Mellon have the advantage of no conference tournament; I think they'd join the previous group if they go 1-0 this weekend.

Any of the other regionally ranked teams except Utica, Rochester, Cabrini, Roanoke, and Ohio Wesleyan are conceivable Pool C's. I think that St. Joseph's LI might have a chance if they lose the conference final to Farmingdale (they'd move back into the regional rankings.)

Montclair may have lost their chance with the loss to Rutgers-Newark. William Paterson would be a longshot now that they're done.

[Hugenerd]

Thanks, pabegg.  +1 for all that work.

[Ralph Turner]

22 Pool A bids
+9 Strong Pool C bids
31 teams from Pool A conferences

31 Pool A & C's
17 Pool A conferences not in the Regional Rankings or are "unsafe" Pool A's like Baruch
+3 Pool B bids
51  bids so far.


That leaves 9 Pool C bids for these 18 teams on the table.  If we use pabegg's 31, then we assume that the tourneys have had no surprises, and everyone except the UAA's have one more loss.  Here is who is on the table for the final Pool C bids.

Men's regional rankings
Records listed are overall record, followed by in-region record.
Atlantic Region

3. Montclair State 20-5 16-5  (Has lost in Semis)
4. William Paterson 20-6 20-6 (Has lost in Semis)
5. Baruch 22-4 20-3   CUNYAC Pool A

East Region

4. Utica 17-8 17-8
5. Rochester 16-8 16-8 UAA one game left hosting CMU

Great Lakes Region

3. Carnegie Mellon 18-6 14-5 (Pool C fans are rooting for CMU)
5. Wooster 19-6 18-4  NCAC Pool A
4. Calvin 17-7 12-2  MIAA Pool A
6. Ohio Wesleyan 17-7 16-6

Middle Atlantic Region

5. Gwynedd-Mercy 20-5 19-4 CSAC Pool A
6. McDaniel 18-7 16-6
7. Cabrini 19-6 19-6
8. Scranton 19-6 18-6  Pool B

Midwest Region

5. Lawrence 17-6 17-6 (? Pool A Midwest Conference ?)
6. Augustana 18-7 17-7
7. Carroll 16-7 16-7
8. North Central (Ill.) 16-9 14-7

Northeast Region

8. Brandeis 16-8 16-8  (one game vs NYU)
9. Amherst 20-5 18-5
10. Bowdoin 17-8 17-8

South Region

6. McMurry 18-7 17-5
7. DePauw 19-6 15-5
8. Roanoke 19-6 14-6

West Region

7. Claremont-Mudd-Scripps 18-6 16-4  SCIAC Pool A
8. Whitworth 20-5 18-5


I think that I have thought thru correctly.

Comments appreciated. 

[sac]

Great Lakes Region

3. Carnegie Mellon 18-6 14-5 (Pool C fans are rooting for CMU)
5. Wooster 19-6 18-4  NCAC Pool A
4. Calvin 17-7 12-2  MIAA Pool A
6. Ohio Wesleyan 17-7 16-6

You might be assuming too much here about Calvin even in a hypothesis....

Calvin plays Olivet Friday, it was Olivet who handed Calvin their first lost at their new home 60-57
http://miaa.org/mbb/stats/0809/caol0121.htm

If they make the Championship game they'll play Albion or Hope

They beat both twice.....

vs Albion   79-73,  67-62
http://miaa.org/mbb/stats/0809/m124caab.htm
http://miaa.org/mbb/stats/0809/0218caab.htm

vs Hope   66-64, 63-62 both came down to the final play, one went in, one didn't.
http://miaa.org/mbb/stats/0809/0117calv.htm
http://miaa.org/mbb/stats/0809/0211caho.htm

Calvin winning the MIAA tournament is far from a forgone conclusion.

[Pat Coleman]

Same can be said for lots of teams, though, sac. I wouldn't take it personally or single Calvin out as a particularly unsafe Pool A.

[sac]

Same can be said for lots of teams, though, sac. I wouldn't take it personally or single Calvin out as a particularly unsafe Pool A.

who took it personally, geez man its the league I follow and it was obvious to me.

[Ralph Turner]

Great Lakes Region

3. Carnegie Mellon 18-6 14-5 (Pool C fans are rooting for CMU)
5. Wooster 19-6 18-4  NCAC Pool A
4. Calvin 17-7 12-2  MIAA Pool A
6. Ohio Wesleyan 17-7 16-6

You might be assuming too much here about Calvin even in a hypothesis....

Calvin plays Olivet Friday, it was Olivet who handed Calvin their first lost at their new home 60-57
http://miaa.org/mbb/stats/0809/caol0121.htm

If they make the Championship game they'll play Albion or Hope

They beat both twice.....

vs Albion   79-73,  67-62
http://miaa.org/mbb/stats/0809/m124caab.htm
http://miaa.org/mbb/stats/0809/0218caab.htm

vs Hope   66-64, 63-62 both came down to the final play, one went in, one didn't.
http://miaa.org/mbb/stats/0809/0117calv.htm
http://miaa.org/mbb/stats/0809/0211caho.htm

Calvin winning the MIAA tournament is far from a forgone conclusion.

My thoughts on that post were to see who would be on the table when the "sure things" were given bids.

Calvin losing in the tourney knocks them off.

[LogShow]

Assuming all of the conference winners (top ranked west region teams) win their conference tourneys.  What are Whitworth's chances of getting an at-large, assuming they get one more in-region win and then lose in the NWC championship game?

Let's assume no upsets in the conference tourneys in the West and the three WIAC'S finish at the top.

West Region
1. St. Thomas 22-0 22-0
2. Puget Sound 21-2 18-0
3. UW-Whitewater 20-3 19-3
4. UW-Stevens Point 20-3 19-3
5. UW-Platteville 20-3 15-3
6. Buena Vista 22-2 19-2
7. Claremont-Mudd-Scripps 16-6 14-4
8. Whitworth 18-5 16-5

The first two WIAC's come off the table in a hurry.

Now we are looking at 17-6 teams around the country.

My first impression is that Whitworth is comfortably in that C13-C18 bubble.

I think that you should hope for Chapman and CMS to do well and give you a playoff game at Puget Sound.  That has to be a first round bracket where Whitworth plays CMS in the first game and UPS gets Chapman.

I would agree that Whitworth will be under consideration in this scenario, but their chances depend on the number of upsets elsewhere.

If Whitworth gets in as a C, they're definitely heading back to Puget Sound. If Chapman doesn't make it, they'll be joined by the SCIAC champ and someone else; if Chapman does make it, it's too early to tell what will happen.

If Whitworth grabs the Pool A bid, UPS isn't guaranteed of hosting and then a number of scenarios can take place.

Thanks for the input!  I am really hoping that UPS can pull off two more wins and get to host...there isn't anything better then going to a NCAA game in your own gym   

[pabegg]

I've expanded on my analysis from last night.

Washington University is in with the UAA regular season title.

Six teams are Pool B candidates, for three spots.
Elms is a certainty
Scranton is also ranked; they play Susquehanna in the Landmark final and I think the winner locks up a bid.
Maryville TN and Chapman need to win all of their games against weak opponents to contend with the Scranton/Susquehanna loser for the 3rd bid.
Becker is a wild card; if they upset Elms in the NECC tournament, they could make as good a case as anyone for #3.

Five teams are Pool C candidates only, having been eliminated from Pool A play.
Carnegie Mellon and Brandeis each have one UAA regular season game left. Both would be in contention with a win and CMU would still have a chance with a loss.
Montclair State and William Paterson lost in tournament play and only have faint chances.
Rochester has a very faint hope if they can beat Carnegie Mellon in their last UAA game.

105 teams are still alive for Pool A but have no Pool C chances

This includes ranked teams Cabrini and Claremont-Mudd-Scripps.            

49 teams are still in contention for a Pool C bid that can still win their Pool A bid. Some of these Pool C hopes are pretty faint, but they still exist.               

This includes unranked teams Averett and St. Joseph's LI.

Here are the 49 with their regional ranking, next tournament game, and Pool C status
(Lock = 100%, Safe = 99% In Contention = 50-98%+ Chance = 1-49%, all of which depend on upsets for Pool A).

   St. Thomas   WE   1   F Sat   Lock
   Puget Sound   WE   2   SF Thu   Lock
   UW-Stevens Point   WE   3   SF Thu   Lock
   UW-Whitewater   WE   4   SF Thu   Lock
   UW-Platteville   WE   5   SF Thu   Lock
   Buena Vista   WE   6   SF Thu   Safe
   Whitworth   WE   7   SF Thu   In Contention
   Wheaton (Ill.)   MW   1   SF Fri   Lock
   Elmhurst   MW   3   SF Fri   Safe
   Transylvania   MW   4   SF Fri   Safe
   Lawrence   MW   5   SF Fri   Chance
   Augustana   MW   6   SF Fri   In Contention
   Carroll   MW   7   SF Fri   Chance
   North Central   MW   8   SF Fri   Chance
   John Carroll   GL   1   SF Fri   Safe
   Capital   GL   2   SF Fri   Safe
   Wooster   GL   4   SF Fri   In Contention
   Calvin   GL   5   SF Fri   In Contention
   Trinity (Texas)   SO   1   QF Fri   Safe
   Texas-Dallas   SO   2   QF Fri   Safe
   Guilford   SO   3   QF Fri   Safe
   Randolph-Macon   SO   4   QF Fri   Safe
   Centre   SO   5   QF Fri   Safe
   McMurry   SO   6   QF Fri   In Contention
   DePauw   SO   7   QF Fri   In Contention
   Roanoke   SO   8   QF Fri   Chance
   Averett   SO      SF Fri   Chance
   St. Mary's (Md.)   MA   1   SF Thu   Safe
   Franklin and Marshall   MA   2   SF Sat   Safe
   DeSales   MA   3   F Sat   Safe
   Widener   MA   4   F Sat   Safe
   Gwynedd-Mercy   MA   5   F Fri   In Contention
   McDaniel   MA   6   SF Sat   In Contention
   Richard Stockton   AT   1   F Fri   Lock
   SUNY-Farmingdale   AT   2   SF Thu   Safe
   Baruch   AT   5   F Fri   Chance
   St. Joseph's (L.I.)   AT      SF Thu   Chance
   Ithaca   EA   1   SF Sat   Lock
   St. Lawrence   EA   2   SF Fri   Safe
   Hamilton   EA   3   SF Fri   Safe
   Utica   EA   4   SF Sat   Chance
   Worcester Polytech   NE   1   SF Sat   Lock
   Middlebury   NE   2   SF Sat   Lock
   Rhode Island College   NE   4   SF Fri   Safe
   Mass-Dartmouth   NE   5   SF Fri   Safe
   Salem State   NE   6   SF Thu   Safe
   Bridgewater State   NE   7   SF Thu   Safe
   Amherst   NE   9   SF Sat   In Contention
   Bowdoin   NE   10   SF Sat   Chance


How can the Pool C picture change Thursday night?               
I don't think anyone can "clinch" a Pool C bid tonight, but several teams can help or hurt their chances.
Only one team, St. Joseph's LI, is in a must-win situation for Pool C chances.      
If Stevens Point beats Oshkosh, we'll know that there will be exactly two Pool C bids from the WIAC; if not, there could be three.
Teams on the bubble are rooting hard for St. Mary's MD to win their tournament and hold onto the Pool A.
Salem State, Bridgwater State, and Whitworth could breathe a lot easier with a win tonight, although they'll still be around with a loss.               

[89Pirate]

Thanks pabegg for your work on this, it is very insightful.  You answered my question on Whitworth before I could ask it, so instead, I will ask this.

If Whitworth can grab the AQ, is there a chance that they would host over UPS?  Does the committee favor AQ's over at-larges for venues?

[KnightSlappy]

I count: 10 locks, 21 safe, 9 in contention, and 9 chance teams.
Using Ralph's 17 no-shot-at-C conferences + 1 (Wash U) + 3 (Pool B) + 10 (locks) + 21 (safe) = 52 bids
8 bids remain for the 23 "in contention" and "chance" teams.  8 upsets will turn these into "out of contention" and "no chance".  Is this correct?

[Pat Coleman]

Does the committee favor AQ's over at-larges for venues?

It does not. It favors the entire season resume.