Pool C

[Titan Q]

Not sure I should have St. Norbert on that list based on the current regional rankings...

http://d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2010/02/24/2010-regional-ranking-week-4/


It's possible the only bubble that might burst with a loss is their own.

[KnightSlappy]

William Paterson (NJAC, Atlantic) – Saturday, vs Richard Stockton

What the consensus feeling on Richard Stockton? I know they're not a Pool C lock by any means, but they could still receive a bid should they lose.

I would probably include John Carroll in there as well. Probably not a lock for a C, but they are on top of the GL rankings and they'd certainly take some of the elbow room out of the bubble picture.

John Carroll (OAC, Great Lakes) - Friday, vs. Heidelberg

Thanks for the list!

Not sure I should have St. Norbert on that list based on the current regional rankings...

http://d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2010/02/24/2010-regional-ranking-week-4/

It's possible the only bubble that might burst with a loss is their own.

Even if they don't make the cut, they still will make things a lot tighter, so I find it useful to have them on the list. Similar to my feelings on John Carroll and Wooster.

[Titan Q]

Even if they don't make the cut, they still will make things a lot tighter, so I find it useful to have them on the list. Similar to my feelings on John Carroll and Wooster.

And that was really my intention...to identify the losses that would be make things tighter.  Either definitely, or potentially.  Agree John Carroll should be there.

[ziggy]

Not sure I should have St. Norbert on that list based on the current regional rankings...

http://d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2010/02/24/2010-regional-ranking-week-4/


It's possible the only bubble that might burst with a loss is their own.

Of the teams listed as potential bubble bursters MIT, Central, Cabrini, Texas-Dallas, and St. Norbert have strength-of-schedules below .500; I wouldn't be comfortable taking a loss if I were them, although some are in better shape than others.

[Titan Q]

(added John Carroll)


Next Games for the "Bubble Bursters"

Williams (NESCAC, Northeast) – Saturday, vs Bates

William Paterson (NJAC, Atlantic) – Saturday, vs Richard Stockton

St. Thomas (MIAC, West) – Thursday, vs Carleton

Whitworth (NWC, West) – Thursday, vs Lewis & Clark

UW-Whitewater (WIAC, West) – Thursday, vs UW-Superior

Eastern Mennonite (ODAC, South) – Friday, vs Bridgewater (*neutral court)

MIT (NEWMAC, Northeast) – Saturday, vs Clark

Carthage (CCIW, Midwest) – Friday, vs Augustana

Central (IIAC, West) – Thursday, vs Dubuque

Cabrini (CSAC, Mid-Atlantic) – Friday, vs Neumann

St. Mary's (CAC, Mid-Atlantic) – Thursday, vs Marymount

Texas-Dallas (ASC, South) – Friday, vs Sul Ross St

St. John Fisher (E8, East) – Friday, vs Stevens

St. Norbert (MWC, Midwest) – Friday, vs Ripon

Wooster (NCAC, Great Lakes) – Friday, vs Ohio Wesleyan

John Carroll (OAC, Great Lakes) - Friday, vs Heidelberg


* only neutral court game I believe

[John Gleich]

What do people think about La Crosse's chances at a Pool C bid?  I've been looking at them versus other on-the-bubble teams like Wheaton and IWU, and I think they may be on the table at the same time (barring any big upsets in the West, or elsewhere across the country, for that matter).


West Region In-Region Record Overall Record
1. Wisconsin-Whitewater 21-4 21-4 A
2. St. Thomas (Minnesota) 20-2 23-2 A
3. Whitworth 21-2 23-2 A
4. Wisconsin-Stevens Point 20-4 21-4 C
5. Central (Iowa) 19-2 21-4 A
6. Chapman 17-1 23-2 B
7. Wisconsin-La Crosse 16-8 17-9 C?  (record updated to reflect Tuesday's loss)
8. Claremont–Mudd-Scripps 15-4 19-5 A
9. Augsburg 17-7 18-7


If everything holds serve in the West, then La Crosse will be on the table pretty early.  They're the second non-conference leading/Pool C lock in the West after Stevens Point who will be off the table pretty quickly.  Things get stickier if both SP and WW lose, or if Whitworth or St. Thomas lose... but let's just pretend that they all win and SP/WW get taken early.

How does La Crosse stack up?

I think it might possibly come down to LaX and Wheaton and/or IWU. 

Midwest Region In-Region Record Overall Record
1. Washington-St. Louis 19-2 22-2 A
2. Carthage 16-3 20-5 A
3. Wheaton (Illinois) 18-8 19-8  C?
4. Illinois Wesleyan 18-7 19-7  C?

REG   #   WP      OWP     OOWP    SOS     RPI50   RPI     NAT   Pool        REG     OVR   CONF     Team
W    08   0.667   0.568   0.557   0.564   0.597   0.630   051   C   018    16-8    17-9   WIAC     UW-La Crosse
MW   07   0.692   0.554   0.532   0.547   0.587   0.628   053   C   020    18-8    18-7   CCIW     Wheaton (IL)
MW   04   0.720   0.558   0.530   0.549   0.599   0.649   038   C   011    18-8    19-6   CCIW     IWU

I updated these numbers through next Saturday, projecting Wheaton beating IWU and then losing to Carthage.  The OWP/OOWP/SOS won't change too much between now and then, but the win % would, so I changed above based on this situation.

How Wheaton/LaX stack up?

• Win-loss percentage against regional opponents Wheaton (.692-.667)
• Strength-of-schedule (only contests versus regional competition) (LaX .564-.547)
- Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OWP) (weighted 2/3).
- Opponents' Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OOWP) (weighted 1/3).
- Add OWP and OOWP to give total strength of schedule
• In-region head-to-head competition (--)
• In-region results versus common regional opponents (LaX 1-0 vs. Elmhurst Wheaton 2-0)
• In-region results versus regionally ranked teams (LaX 2-3, Wheaton currently 4-3, would be 5-4 if they beat IWU and lose Sat to either Carthage or Augie)

I'm not sure if that's decisive, but Wheaton may have the tops.

If the evaluation of the primary criteria does not result in a decision by the committee, the following secondary criteria (for ranking and selections) will be evaluated:
• Out-of-region head-to-head competition (- -)
• Overall Division III win-loss percentage (Wheaton 19-8 vs. La Crosse 15-8)
• Results versus common non Division III opponents (- -)
• Results versus all Division III ranked teams (LaX 3-3, Wheaton 5-4 or 6-5 with the above scenario)
• Overall win-loss percentage
• Results versus all common opponents.
• Overall DIII Strength of Schedule.

I guess it looks like Wheaton still has the upper hand so they'd get in.  IWU has a better regional W%, so if they win tomorrow and then lose in the final, they might move ahead of Wheaton and could be head to head with LaX... but LaX may actually drop with their loss Tuesday (doesn't look like that was taken into account with the rankings last night)

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I got the John Carroll question via email and here is what I wrote yesterday in that email:
For starters, if John Carroll loses in the conference tournament they will NOT end up being the #1 ranked team in the region. They will fall in the final rankings which are done on Sunday.

That being said, those teams ranked ahead of them will probably be automatic bid teams, which would move John Carroll to the top of the Great Lakes Region (or second) when it comes time to pick Pool C bids. That gives them an advantage in this situation.

So, when they get put up on "the board" with each of the other top Pool C teams in each region (one from each region are on the board at a time), John Carroll will have a 17-6 or 18-6 in-region record which certainly isn't the best, but isn't horrible either. Their advantage will be the fact they have a roughly .539 SOS (last SOS numbers from D3hoops.com: http://www.d3hoops.com/salem/10/sos.htm) and that will help them as the national committee chooses teams.

The problem John Carroll could have in place is if there are a number of upsets in conference tournaments of "lock" teams like Williams, Guilford, UW-Whitewater, UW-Stevens Point, St. Norbert (maybe), William Paterson, MIT, etc. That pits much better teams in terms of regional records and SOS on the board against John Carroll, putting a selection of the Blue Streaks further and further along in the selection process.

I think John Carroll is safe, but a combination of a loss and upsets in other tournaments could make it dicey.

Just my opinion. Also my opinion... I don't think Richard Stockton has a chance at a Pool C bid... but that is guy; I haven't looked at all the numbers, just yet.

[ziggy]

Also my opinion... I don't think Richard Stockton has a chance at a Pool C bid... but that is guy; I haven't looked at all the numbers, just yet.

As it stands now they figure to be the first on the board in the Atlantic, my guess is they get in barring a huge number of conference tournament upsets. They should have a better wp and sos than John Carroll and you said they're in (which I agree with).

[Pat Coleman]

I think we get two NJAC teams in, from the looks of it. Stockton's resume is comparable nationally. I actually ended up with three NJAC teams in the Pool C list I did last night but conference upsets would probably bounce one of them out.

[ziggy]

I think we get two NJAC teams in, from the looks of it. Stockton's resume is comparable nationally. I actually ended up with three NJAC teams in the Pool C list I did last night but conference upsets would probably bounce one of them out.

I agree with you Pat. Since Stockton just beat Rutgers-Newark I expect that Stockton is in while Rutgers-Newark will have to wait out their fate a bit longer.

[AO]

What do people think about La Crosse's chances at a Pool C bid?  I've been looking at them versus other on-the-bubble teams like Wheaton and IWU, and I think they may be on the table at the same time (barring any big upsets in the West, or elsewhere across the country, for that matter).


West Region In-Region Record Overall Record
1. Wisconsin-Whitewater 21-4 21-4 A
2. St. Thomas (Minnesota) 20-2 23-2 A
3. Whitworth 21-2 23-2 A
4. Wisconsin-Stevens Point 20-4 21-4 C
5. Central (Iowa) 19-2 21-4 A
6. Chapman 17-1 23-2 B
7. Wisconsin-La Crosse 16-8 17-9 C?  (record updated to reflect Tuesday's loss)
8. Claremont–Mudd-Scripps 15-4 19-5 A
9. Augsburg 17-7 18-7


If everything holds serve in the West, then La Crosse will be on the table pretty early.  They're the second non-conference leading/Pool C lock in the West after Stevens Point who will be off the table pretty quickly.  Things get stickier if both SP and WW lose, or if Whitworth or St. Thomas lose... but let's just pretend that they all win and SP/WW get taken early.

How does La Crosse stack up?

I think it might possibly come down to LaX and Wheaton and/or IWU. 

Midwest Region In-Region Record Overall Record
1. Washington-St. Louis 19-2 22-2 A
2. Carthage 16-3 20-5 A
3. Wheaton (Illinois) 18-8 19-8  C?
4. Illinois Wesleyan 18-7 19-7  C?

REG   #   WP      OWP     OOWP    SOS     RPI50   RPI     NAT   Pool        REG     OVR   CONF     Team
W    08   0.667   0.568   0.557   0.564   0.597   0.630   051   C   018    16-8    17-9   WIAC     UW-La Crosse
MW   07   0.692   0.554   0.532   0.547   0.587   0.628   053   C   020    18-8    18-7   CCIW     Wheaton (IL)
MW   04   0.720   0.558   0.530   0.549   0.599   0.649   038   C   011    18-8    19-6   CCIW     IWU

I updated these numbers through next Saturday, projecting Wheaton beating IWU and then losing to Carthage.  The OWP/OOWP/SOS won't change too much between now and then, but the win % would, so I changed above based on this situation.

How Wheaton/LaX stack up?

• Win-loss percentage against regional opponents Wheaton (.692-.667)
• Strength-of-schedule (only contests versus regional competition) (LaX .564-.547)
- Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OWP) (weighted 2/3).
- Opponents' Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OOWP) (weighted 1/3).
- Add OWP and OOWP to give total strength of schedule
• In-region head-to-head competition (--)
• In-region results versus common regional opponents (LaX 1-0 vs. Elmhurst Wheaton 2-0)
• In-region results versus regionally ranked teams (LaX 2-3, Wheaton currently 4-3, would be 5-4 if they beat IWU and lose Sat to either Carthage or Augie)

I'm not sure if that's decisive, but Wheaton may have the tops.

If the evaluation of the primary criteria does not result in a decision by the committee, the following secondary criteria (for ranking and selections) will be evaluated:
• Out-of-region head-to-head competition (- -)
• Overall Division III win-loss percentage (Wheaton 19-8 vs. La Crosse 15-8)
• Results versus common non Division III opponents (- -)
• Results versus all Division III ranked teams (LaX 3-3, Wheaton 5-4 or 6-5 with the above scenario)
• Overall win-loss percentage
• Results versus all common opponents.
• Overall DIII Strength of Schedule.

I guess it looks like Wheaton still has the upper hand so they'd get in.  IWU has a better regional W%, so if they win tomorrow and then lose in the final, they might move ahead of Wheaton and could be head to head with LaX... but LaX may actually drop with their loss Tuesday (doesn't look like that was taken into account with the rankings last night)

If Augsburg beats Gustavus tonight, I think they get ranked ahead of LAX and Augsburg is a fairly poor pool c candidate, so LAX might not get to the table in the first place.

[Hugenerd]

I dont think people have to worry about a bubble burster out of the ODAC, unless someone other than Guilford, EMU, or VWC win.  RMC was ranked #1 for a couple weeks earlier in the year, how do they stack up now for a Pool C?

[Pat Coleman]

I had Macon on my list. Going to post something on the blog.

Agreed with AO about Augsburg being a fairly poor Pool C candidate. However, I did get that far down the list.

[ronk]

Just a reminder... we will get the actual FINAL regional rankings Sunday or Monday... so we know how teams lined up for selections and bracketing.

  Are we getting them before the selections are announced?

[magicman]

KnightSlappy or Pat,
Now that Plattsburgh St. and Oneonta St. are ranked #2 and #3 in the East behind St. John Fisher, what are the chances, assuming Fisher wins a Pool A bid and 1 of these 2 SUNYAC teams wins the Pool A bid that the other one, with 1 more loss, gets a Pool C bid?