Pool C

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh · February 11, 2011, 06:32:36 AM

Mr. Ypsi - they haven't come from another planet... I talked to the Men's Committee Chairman Dave Martin last night on Hoopsville and he explained where the number came from and how it may be used in the future as well.

You can listen to the interview here and it starts about 30 minutes into the show.

ronk · February 11, 2011, 08:01:26 AM

Quote from: deiscanton on February 10, 2011, 09:06:51 AM
Regarding Pat Coleman's concerns about the accuracy of the men's SOS data in the regional rankings, as listed in his comments that posted the links:

http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2011/02/09/ncaas-2011-regional-rankings-week-2/#comments

His comments on the data were posted at 5:14 PM yesterday-- Feb. 9, 2011

I checked the files this morning, and at first glance, the NCAA may have updated the files since Pat Coleman
s comments to give the up to date regional results on the men's side through Sunday, Feb. 6.

I computed the average OWP of the Brandeis men with my newly purchased pocket calculator, for instance, and I found that the number given for Brandeis's average OWP was correct with the multiplier factored in, given the data presented. With the in-region records of the Brandeis men's opponents factored in as given by the NCAA, I had Brandeis's average OWP at .469 with the home/away multiplier (which is the number that the NCAA gave for Brandeis), and at .495 without the home/away multiplier.

This result was through the game at Rochester on Feb. 6, so the road game at Amherst will be factored in next week's regional rankings.

I haven't calculated the numbers yet for the Emory and the Rochester men, but since the average OWP for the Brandeis men seemed correct to me, I don't believe that the average OWPs with the multiplier for Emory and Rochester will be radically different than what the NCAA computed.

I trust that KnightSlappy will check some of the numbers to confirm the accuracy....

Deis,
What's the web site? I'm just getting data from 2/2/11, not the newest. Scranton's in-region record was shy 1 win for the 1st week and I suspect it'll be shy 2 wins for the 2nd week.

Pat Coleman · February 11, 2011, 10:16:22 AM

PDFs tend to cache -- hit refresh and you should see the updated info.

ronk · February 11, 2011, 11:36:49 AM

Refresh doesn't change the data for me.

KnightSlappy · February 11, 2011, 12:20:53 PM

Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on February 11, 2011, 06:32:36 AM
Mr. Ypsi - they haven't come from another planet... I talked to the Men's Committee Chairman Dave Martin last night on Hoopsville and he explained where the number came from and how it may be used in the future as well.

You can listen to the interview here and it starts about 30 minutes into the show.

He explained where they came from (D1), and he also explained that they are used in a different application (RPI).

Actually it's used in the winning percentage portion of the RPI calculation.

They identified a mode of transportation and used it without considering the differences in application.

This would be like Calvin and Hope fans both wanting to go to Milwaukee. Calvin fans drive around the lake, but the Hope fans think this is a roundabout way of getting there. They like the idea of using a car, it's readily available and they don't have to go through the extra work of finding a different type of vehicle, but they don't want to drive all the way around the lake (who wants to go through Chicago traffic anyway?). They plan on driving straight across the lake, so they hop in their cars and head west, straight into Lake Michigan, and sink.

But wasn't it perfectly justifiable that they used cars? Calvin fans used cars and they got to Milwaukee just fine, so you can't fault the Hope fans for sinking.

deiscanton · February 11, 2011, 12:54:06 PM

Gregory Sager · February 11, 2011, 06:41:54 PM

Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on February 10, 2011, 07:54:43 PM
Both Berry and Covenant are provisional members of D3... they are not full-fledged members as they have to go through a four year process before becoming a full-time member.

There's more to it than that. Programs that are in the third or fourth year of the four-year provisional period are considered full members in terms of their opponents' records; in other words, if you play an in-region game against a third- or fourth-year provisional team, the win or loss will count towards your record in the eyes of D3's regional and national committees.

However, Berry and Covenant are currently second-year provisional members, so those games don't count for Rust as far as the selection committee is concerned. Next year, Rust's games against those two opponents will count, even though Berry and Covenant will still be provisional members.

Quote from: KnightSlappy on February 11, 2011, 12:20:53 PM
Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on February 11, 2011, 06:32:36 AM
Mr. Ypsi - they haven't come from another planet... I talked to the Men's Committee Chairman Dave Martin last night on Hoopsville and he explained where the number came from and how it may be used in the future as well.

You can listen to the interview here and it starts about 30 minutes into the show.

He explained where they came from (D1), and he also explained that they are used in a different application (RPI).

Actually it's used in the winning percentage portion of the RPI calculation.

They identified a mode of transportation and used it without considering the differences in application.

This would be like Calvin and Hope fans both wanting to go to Milwaukee. Calvin fans drive around the lake, but the Hope fans think this is a roundabout way of getting there. They like the idea of using a car, it's readily available and they don't have to go through the extra work of finding a different type of vehicle, but they don't want to drive all the way around the lake (who wants to go through Chicago traffic anyway?). They plan on driving straight across the lake, so they hop in their cars and head west, straight into Lake Michigan, and sink.

But wasn't it perfectly justifiable that they used cars? Calvin fans used cars and they got to Milwaukee just fine, so you can't fault the Hope fans for sinking.

Nothing says "rivalry" like a good old-fashioned word problem.

"If the Hope fan bus is traveling south on a one-lane road at 80 mph, and the Calvin fan bus is traveling north on the same road at 90 mph ..."

Mr. Ypsi · February 11, 2011, 08:11:55 PM

The rest of the MIAA is very happy!

The only thing better would be if they were the Hope and Calvin team buses!

7express · February 12, 2011, 01:33:19 AM

Lets use West Conn as an example here:
Lets say they finish the regular season unbeaten (which would have wins over Keene state & Eastern), and make the LEC finals and lose to RIC. That'll leave them at 23-4, probably no worse then #5 in the Northeast, would that be good enough to snag one of 16 remaining pool C bids (assuming the NESCAC gets 2 which seems likely)?? Plattsburgh state losing isn't helping the cause, and the only other win is against WPI. Hopefully we can take out our nemisis RIC and not worry about otherwise I'll be extremely nervous in a few weeks.

I just wanted to get a neutral fan's observer, and someone who knows the ranking system on this topic.

ronk · February 12, 2011, 01:44:41 AM

It'll depend on how many Pool C candidates are ahead of your team in its region and how many upsets there are in the conference playoffs that determine the AQs(automatically qualifying); i.e., the more top 30 teams that fail to win the Pool A spot will then take a Pool C berth leaving fewer for the others.

Ralph Turner · February 12, 2011, 07:19:23 PM

Quote from: ronk on February 12, 2011, 01:44:41 AM
It'll depend on how many Pool C candidates are ahead of your team in its region and how many upsets there are in the conference playoffs that determine the AQs(automatically qualifying); i.e., the more top 30 teams that fail to win the Pool A spot will then take a Pool C berth leaving fewer for the others.

It is really unusual to have the #3 or #4 Pool C bid team in the region earn a slot except maybe out the the Northeast Region!

Assume the highest ranked team in the region from a particular conference earns the Pool A bid. We will assign the UAA's bid to Rochester. The AMCC is a multi-region conference; we will give the AAMC bid to LaRoche which leads the conference today. This is a rough look at Pool C today. If your team in not on these rankings, then you really need to win your conference tourney!

Men's rankings
Atlantic Region
~~1 Ramapo~~ 17-4 16-2 NJAC
2 Kean 15-7 14-5 NJAC
~~3 Mount Saint Mary~~ 15-5 15-5 SKY
4 SUNY-Purchase 16-4 16-4 SKY
5 Montclair State 17-5 11-5 NJAC

East
~~1 Oswego State~~ 16-3 16-3 SUNYAC
~~2 Rochester~~ 16-4 15-3 UAA
~~3 Hobart~~ 16-4 16-3 LL
~~4 Stevens~~ 15-5 15-5 E8
5 Ithaca 15-5 14-5 E8
6 Plattsburgh State 14-6 13-4 SUNYAC

Great Lakes
~~1 Wooster~~ 20-1 17-1 NCAC
~~2 Hope~~ 16-5 12-1 MIAA
3 Wabash 17-4 16-4 NCAC
~~4 Marietta~~ 19-2 16-2 OAC
5 Penn State-Behrend 18-2 18-1 AMCC (I will throw PSU-B into Pool C. LaRoche has a better record as of 2/13. Thanks to Magicman for the proofreading.)
~~6 Thiel~~ 15-6 12-3 Pres AC

Middle Atlantic
~~1 La Roche~~ 19-2 18-2 AMCC
~~2 Wesley~~ 15-6 14-2 CAC
3 St. Mary's (Md.) 18-4 15-2 CAC
~~4 Elizabethtown~~ 16-4 15-4 MACC
~~5 Cabrini~~ 16-4 16-4 CSAC
6 Keystone 16-4 16-4 CSAC
~~7 DeSales~~ 16-5 14-5 MACF
8 Gwynedd-Mercy 16-4 15-3 CSAC
~~9 Franklin and Marshall~~ 17-4 15-4 CC

Midwest
~~1 Augustana (Ill.)~~ 20-1 19-1 CCIW
~~2 Concordia (Wis.)~~ 17-3 15-2 NATHC
~~3 Hanover~~ 15-5 15-5 HCAC
4 Illinois Wesleyan 15-5 14-5 CCIW
5 Edgewood 14-7 14-5 NATHC
6 Manchester 15-6 14-5 HCAC
7 Milwaukee School of Engineering 15-5 14-5 NATHC
~~8 St. Norbert~~ 16-4 16-4 MWC

Northeast
~~1 Williams~~ 21-1 19-1 NESCAC
2 Middlebury 18-1 16-1 NESCAC
3 Amherst 20-0 19-0 NESCAC
~~4 Western Connecticut State~~ 19-2 18-2 LEC
~~5 WPI~~ 18-3 18-2 NEWMAC
~~6 Becker~~ 17-3 17-3 NECC
7 Elms 15-6 13-5 NECC
8 Rhode Island College 13-7 13-7 LEC
9 Brandeis 13-6 13-6 UAA
10 Bowdoin 13-7 13-7 NESCAC
11 MIT 15-6 15-5 NEWMAC

South
~~1 Virginia Wesleyan~~ 19-1 16-1 ODAC
2 Randolph-Macon 19-3 17-3 ODAC
~~3 Ferrum~~ 19-2 16-2 USASouth
~~4 Mary Hardin-Baylor~~ 17-4 17-4 ASC-West
5 Texas-Dallas 16-5 15-4 ASC-East
6 Emory 16-4 15-4 UAA
~~7 Centre~~ 15-4 13-4 SCAC
8 North Carolina Wesleyan 15-6 10-4 USASouth

West
~~1 Whitworth~~ 21-0 21-0 NWC
~~2 St. Thomas~~ 18-2 17-2 MIAC
~~3 UW-River Falls~~ 19-3 17-2 WIAC
4 UW-Stevens Point 18-3 17-3 WIAC
~~5 Chapman~~ 18-3 14-1 Pool B
6 Carleton 13-7 13-5 MIAC
7 Whitman 15-6 10-4 NWC
8 Lewis and Clark 15-6 9-4 NWC
9 St. Olaf 15-6 14-6 MIAC

deiscanton · February 13, 2011, 06:37:55 AM

As of this morning, (6:34 AM Eastern Sunday, Feb. 13), I rechecked the Middle Atlantic SOS data file, and the file should now be up to date showing the games up to Feb. 6-- I have a heading on the file that now says Generated from Feb. 9, 2011 at 3:54 PM Eastern on that file.

I await ronk's confirmation on this.

Note: The current Middle Atlantic SOS data file shows Scranton with an in-region record of 14-4 (.778) as of Feb. 6. That is incorrect. Scranton's in-region record should be at 15-4 (.789) as of Feb. 6. I believe that the computer incorrectly confuses Scranton as having played the Div I Centenary Gents of Louisiana-- which is reclassifying to Division III to join the American Southwest Conference-- that conference membership for the Gents to take effect in a few years-- on their schedule where it should read that Scranton played the current DIII Centenary Cyclones of New Jersey-- that should explain the discrepancy.

I will also check the status of Cazenovia-- that may be another explanation for it as well, although I think that the first explanation is the more likely answer for the problem.

Update: Cazenovia is a full member of NCAA Division III according to page 41 of the Men's DIII NCAA Basketball Championship Handbook, so Centenary explains the discrepancy-- the computer assumed that Scranton played the reclassifying Centenary Gents (Louisiana) this season.

Ralph Turner · February 13, 2011, 08:30:39 AM

Thanks, 'Deis.

As you will recall, Cazenovia will be in-region for Scranton, because they are both in Administration Region #2 (the states of NY and PA).

And yes, Centenary College of Louisiana will be a first year provisional year and a member of the ASC next season.

ronk · February 13, 2011, 11:54:14 PM

Quote from: deiscanton on February 13, 2011, 06:37:55 AM
As of this morning, (6:34 AM Eastern Sunday, Feb. 13), I rechecked the Middle Atlantic SOS data file, and the file should now be up to date showing the games up to Feb. 6-- I have a heading on the file that now says Generated from Feb. 9, 2011 at 3:54 PM Eastern on that file.

I await ronk's confirmation on this.

Note: The current Middle Atlantic SOS data file shows Scranton with an in-region record of 14-4 (.778) as of Feb. 6. That is incorrect. Scranton's in-region record should be at 15-4 (.789) as of Feb. 6. I believe that the computer incorrectly confuses Scranton as having played the Div I Centenary Gents of Louisiana-- which is reclassifying to Division III to join the American Southwest Conference-- that conference membership for the Gents to take effect in a few years-- on their schedule where it should read that Scranton played the current DIII Centenary Cyclones of New Jersey-- that should explain the discrepancy.

I will also check the status of Cazenovia-- that may be another explanation for it as well, although I think that the first explanation is the more likely answer for the problem.

Update: Cazenovia is a full member of NCAA Division III according to page 41 of the Men's DIII NCAA Basketball Championship Handbook, so Centenary explains the discrepancy-- the computer assumed that Scranton played the reclassifying Centenary Gents (Louisiana) this season.

I'll confirm that I can get the revised Mid-Atlantic info for 2/9/11 now. I'm suspecting that the missing Scranton victory is not with Centenary, but Kean, which qualifies as in-region by being closer than 200 miles criteria. I say Kean because they also list Scranton with a 1-1 record versus regionally ranked opponents instead of what it should be 2-1(wins:Cabrini,Kean; loss E-town). These 2 items together leads me to believe the missing victory is Kean instead of Centenary. I've emailed the Scranton coaching staff, but they haven't responded yet after their weekend road trip and a hospitalization for one of the players.

Greek Tragedy · February 14, 2011, 01:37:30 PM

Good work Ralph! As you may remember, I usually do the regional rankings by conference and "conference leaders" list. I've been busy lately and it doesn't help that the prego wife needs my services more than usual! LOL. Thanks. If I get to it, I might do it after this week's rankings on Wednesday. Good job!