Pool C

[7express]

I saw St. Joseph's (LI) get absolutely steamrolled by Mount St. Mary tonight.  Down 54-21 at halftime, MSM could've scored 8 second half points and still won as the final was 99-61.  If the Skyline wasn't already a 1 bid league, it sure looks that way now.

[KnightSlappy]

KnightSlappy,
I'm a little curious about Rochester's jump in your Bracketology post.  In your previous post they weren't even on your bubble, and now you list them as in. Is that due entirely to SOS? I'm all for more UAA teams in the field, but I'm surprised to see a 13-7 team that did not make the regional rankings in the field. Of course, I'm pretty hopeless in understanding how Pool C works. I'm just hoping my Violets can edge out Wash, Brandeis, etc for the Pool A.

Yeah, it might be a bit of a stretch considering they weren't ranked, but they have a dynamite SOS, and they've played 8 games versus regionally ranked opponents. Their margin for error is probably quite small though. I had them as the very last team in.

[ronk]

   Did anybody find any incorrect in-region records of the teams regionally ranked? Even if the NCAA got them all right, we still won't know the accuracy of the other 700 teams(across both genders) that are unranked but could affect their own non-ranking in addition to the ranked teams. This is important for Pool C selection and tournament hosting/traveling decisions.

[Hugenerd]

Thought experiment for you guys, which team do you think should be ranked higher regionally:

Team EC: 17-5, OWP/OOWP ~0.535, but unweighted OWP in games they have actually won 0.449 (record of 5 teams they have lost to ~0.800).

Team MT: 21-1, OWP/OOWP ~0.495.

Is it enough to show up to 5 games against good teams and lose to boost your OWP/OOWP to get a high ranking? At what point does actually winning those games matter?.

If you believe team EC should be ranked higher than team MT, than how important is OWP/OOWP? What if we compare team EC to team BU:

Team BU: 12-9, OWP/OOWP ~0.610. This team has also beat the #1 ranked team in the region.

In each case there is a 4 loss difference, but what misleadingly appears to be a high OWP/OOWP value difference (misleading because they are losing to most of the teams that are boosting their OWP/OOWP).

Without any head-to-head information, how does it make sense that team EC is ranked ahead of team MT, but Team BU is not even ranked?

[KnightSlappy]

Thought experiment for you guys, which team do you think should be ranked higher regionally:

Team EC: 17-5, OWP/OOWP ~0.535, but unweighted OWP in games they have actually won 0.449 (record of 5 teams they have lost to ~0.800).

Team MT: 21-1, OWP/OOWP ~0.495.

Is it enough to show up to 5 games against good teams and lose to boost your OWP/OOWP to get a high ranking? At what point does actually winning those games matter?.

If you believe team EC should be ranked higher than team MT, than how important is OWP/OOWP? What if we compare team EC to team BU:

Team BU: 12-9, OWP/OOWP ~0.610. This team has also beat the #1 ranked team in the region.

In each case there is a 4 loss difference, but what misleadingly appears to be a high OWP/OOWP value difference (misleading because they are losing to most of the teams that are boosting their OWP/OOWP).

Without any head-to-head information, how does it make sense that team EC is ranked ahead of team MT, but Team BU is not even ranked?

What's MIT's OWP from the games they've won (taking out the loss to WPI)?

[Hugenerd]

I saw St. Joseph's (LI) get absolutely steamrolled by Mount St. Mary tonight.  Down 54-21 at halftime, MSM could've scored 8 second half points and still won as the final was 99-61.  If the Skyline wasn't already a 1 bid league, it sure looks that way now.

East Conn lost to this team by 14.

Thought experiment for you guys, which team do you think should be ranked higher regionally:

Team EC: 17-5, OWP/OOWP ~0.535, but unweighted OWP in games they have actually won 0.449 (record of 5 teams they have lost to ~0.800).

Team MT: 21-1, OWP/OOWP ~0.495.

Is it enough to show up to 5 games against good teams and lose to boost your OWP/OOWP to get a high ranking? At what point does actually winning those games matter?.

If you believe team EC should be ranked higher than team MT, than how important is OWP/OOWP? What if we compare team EC to team BU:

Team BU: 12-9, OWP/OOWP ~0.610. This team has also beat the #1 ranked team in the region.

In each case there is a 4 loss difference, but what misleadingly appears to be a high OWP/OOWP value difference (misleading because they are losing to most of the teams that are boosting their OWP/OOWP).

Without any head-to-head information, how does it make sense that team EC is ranked ahead of team MT, but Team BU is not even ranked?

What's MIT's OWP from the games they've won (taking out the loss to WPI)?

I just got home and ran the weighted OWP numbers (did not run OOWP, but this should only help MIT since this value was higher for MIT last week).

This is what I got through todays games.

MITs weighted OWP for all games: 0.486 (projected at the end of season, with only WPI left: 0.505)
MITs weighted OWP in wins: 0.482 (22 games)
MITs Weighted OWP in losses: 0.571 (1 game)

East Conn's weighted OWP for all games: 0.535 (no projection as they have more than 1 game left)
East Conn's weighted OWP in wins: 0.440 (18 games)
East Conn's weighted OWP in losses: 0.875 (5 games)

So essentially by just showing up for those 5 games, they gained nearly an entire 0.1 in the OWP calculation.  I guess scheduling those games (well actually 3 of them are league games, so they didnt really schedule them, they just showed up), really shows how good they are.

I will try running the same calcs for some other NE region ranked teams if I get some time later.

[Greek Tragedy]

UPDATED THROUGH YESTERDAY'S GAMES

I may have made a mistake here and there, but hopefully it's pretty accurate

ATLANTIC
RANK	TEAM	CONFERENCE	REG./OVERALL	SCHEDULE
#1	Staten Island	CUNYAC	15-2, 16-4	WON at York (NY) 72-63, WON at Megar Evers 93-81, at WON at Brooklyn 73-66
#2	William Paterson	NJAC	19-3, 19-3	WON at Rutgers-Newark 57-55, WON vs New Jersey City 85-79
#3	St. Joseph's (LI)	SKY	17-1, 17-2	WON at SUNY-Maritime 91-73, LOST at Mount St. Mary 99-61, WON vs. Yeshiva 91-59
#4	Richard Stockton	NJAC	14-6, 15-7	WON vs Rutgers-Camden 80-57, WON vs Rowan  80-77
#5	New Jersey City	NJAC	14-4, 16-5	WON at Montclair State 76-59, LOST at William Paterson 85-79
EAST
RANK	TEAM	CONFERENCE	REG./OVERALL	SCHEDULE
#1	Hartwick	E8	19-2, 20-2	WON at Nazareth 83-65, WON at St. John Fisher 64-62
#2	Oswego State	SUNYAC	17-2, 17-3	WON at Oneonta State 68-55, WON  at New Paltz State 92-68
#3	NYU	UAA	17-2, 17-2	WON vs New Paltz State 73-61, LOST at Emory 73-70 , at Rochester 2/12
#4	Hobart	LL	15-4, 16-4	WON at Union, 62-60, WON vs Skidmore 60-49, WON vs RPI 104-89
#5	Medaille	AMCC	19-2, 20-2	WON at Penn State-Altoona 84-69
#6	Nazareth	E8	15-5, 15-7	LOST vs Hartwick 83-65, WON vs Stevens 77-61
GREAT LAKES
RANK	TEAM	CONFERENCE	REG./OVERALL	SCHEDULE
#1	Hope	MIAA	12-0, 20-1	WON vs Kalamazoo 87-59, WON at Calvin 83-70
#2	Wittenberg	NCAC	15-3, 17-4	LOST at Wabash 55-49, WON vs Wooster 68-62
#3	Wooster	NCAC	16-3, 18-3	WON at Ohio Wesleyan 54-50, LOST at Wittenberg 68-62
#4	Ohio Wesleyan	NCAC	15-5, 16-5	LOST vs Wooster 54-50, WON at Hiram 79-73
#5	Wabash	NCAC	13-6, 15-6	WON vs Wittenberg 55-49, WON at Kenyon 79-51
#6	Capital	OAC	13-6, 14-7	WON vs Otterbein 86-75, LOST at Baldwin-Wallace 75-64
MID-ATLANTIC
RANK	TEAM	CONFERENCE	REG./OVERALL	SCHEDULE
#1	Cabrini	CSAC	21-0, 21-1	WON at Neumann 73-60, WON vs Philadelphia Bible 85-55
#2	Keystone	CSAC	17-3, 17-3	LOST vs Gwynedd-Mercy 100-96, WON vs Marywood 84-71, WON at Centenary 110-93
#3	Lycoming	MACC	15-4, 17-5	LOST at Messiah 59-57, LOST vs Widener 70-69
#4	Mary Washington	CAC	14-4, 15-6	WON at Hood 77-46, LOST at York (Pa) 76-68
#5	Franklin & Marshall	CC	19-2, 19-2	WON vs Gettysburg 60-53, WON vs Swarthmore 77-59
#6	St. Mary's (Md)	CAC	14-5, 16-6	WON vs Salisbury 59-42, WON at Welsey 94-68
#7	Messiah	MACC	13-6, 14-6	WON vs Lycoming 59-57, at WON Arcadia 62-61
#8	Misericordia	MACF	15-6, 15-6	WON vs Eastern 94-89, WON at Delaware Valley 86-66
#9	Alvernia	MACC	13-6, 15-6	LOST at Albright 65-57, WON vs Elizabethtown 70-67
MIDWEST
RANK	TEAM	CONFERENCE	REG./OVERALL	SCHEDULE
#1	Washington U.	UAA	15-4, 15-5	WON vs Case Western Reserve 78-60, vs Carnegie Mellon TODAY
#2	Transylvania	HCAC	18-1, 19-2	WON vs Mount St. Joseph 67-58, WON vs Manchester 72-52
#3	Lake Forest	MWC	17-2, 18-2	WON at Monmouth 72-53
#4	Wheaton (IL)	CCIW	15-4, 17-4	LOST at Carthage 69-67, WON at North Central (IL) 64-61
#5	North Central (IL)	CCIW	14-4, 15-6	WON at Illinois Wesleyan 80-73, LOST vs Wheaton (IL) 64-61
#6	Illinois Wesleyan	CCIW	14-5, 16-5	LOST to North Central (IL) 80-73, WON at Carthage 69-64
#7	Edgewood	NATH	14-5, 16-5	WON at Maranatha Baptist 72-59, WON vs Wisconsin Lutheran 70-65
#8	Concordia (WI)	NATH	15-4, 16-4	WON vs Lakeland 106-102 OT, WON at Maranatha Baptist 71-45
NORTHEAST
RANK	TEAM	CONFERENCE	REG./OVERALL	SCHEDULE
#1	Amherst	NESCAC	18-2, 20-2	WON vs Williams 80-78, vs WON vs Middlebury 77-75 OT
#2	Middlebury	NESCAC	18-1, 20-1	WON at Trinity (Conn) 76-47, LOST at Amherst 77-75 OT
#3	Rhode Island College	LEC	16-4, 16-4	LOST at Mass-Dartmouth 73-68, vs WON vs Bates 77-61, WON at Southern Maine 77-65
#4	W. Connecticut	LEC	17-4, 17-4	WON vs Eastern Connecticut 82-81 OT, WON vs Keene State 108-105 OT
#5	WPI	NEWMAC	16-4, 16-4	LOST at Wheaton (Mass) 71-69, WON vs Springfield 70-69
#6	E. Connecticut	LEC	17-4, 17-4	LOST at Western Connecticut 82-81 OT, WON  vs Mass-Dartmouth 72-65
#7	MIT	NEWMAC	20-1, 20-1	WON vs Babson 59-47, WON  at Clark 63-60 OT
#8	Keene State	LEC	14-3, 17-4	WON at Plymouth State 86-71, LOST at Western Connecticut 108-105 OT
#9	Wesleyan (Conn)	NESCAC	17-4, 17-5	WON at Bowdoin 74-61, WON at Colby 76-70
#10	Tufts	NESCAC	16-6, 16-6	LOST at Hamilton 67-64
#11	Becker	NECC	16-4, 16-4	WON vs Elms 60-43, WON vs Lesley 89-57, WON at Southern Vermont 81-52
#12	Albertus Magnus	GNAC	20-1, 20-1	WON at Trinity (Conn) 85-73, WON at Lasell 76-73
SOUTH
RANK	TEAM	CONFERENCE	REG./OVERALL	SCHEDULE
#1	Mary Hardin-Baylor	ASC	19-1, 20-1	WON vs Hardin-Simmons 89-80, WON vs McMurry 90-87
#2	Virginia Wesleyan	ODAC	17-2, 18-2	LOST at Randolph-Macon 54-51, WON vs Hampden-Sydney 73-71
#3	Birmingham-Southern	SCAC	17-1, 20-1	WON vs Centre 81-64, vs Sewanee TODAY
#4	Randolph-Macon	ODAC	14-3, 17-4	WON vs Virginia Wesleyan 54-51, WON vs Roanoke 110-72
#5	Christopher Newport	USAC	15-4, 18-4	WON vs Greensboro 106-79
#6	Emory	UAA	16-4, 16-4	WON vs NYU 73-70, vs Brandeis TODAY
#7	Guilford	ODAC	14-5, 15-6	WON vs Washington and Lee 68-49, LOST at Randolph 67-58
#8	Hardin-Simmons	ASC	14-5, 16-5	LOST at Mary-Hardin-Baylor 89-80, WON at Concordia (Texas) 92-88
WEST
RANK	TEAM	CONFERENCE	REG./OVERALL	SCHEDULE
#1	River Falls	WIAC	16-3, 16-5	WON vs Superior 58-57, WON vs Oshkosh 85-71
#2	Stevens Point	WIAC	16-4, 18-4	WON at Oshkosh 87-83 OT
#3	Whitewater	WIAC	19-2, 19-2	WON at Platteville 77-58, LOST at Superior 60-58
#4	Whitworth	NWC	17-2, 18-3	WON at Linfield 95-67, WON at Pacific 76-54
#5	CMS	SCIAC	13-1, 19-1	WON vs Caltech 93-62, WON at Redlands 75-65
#6	St. Thomas	MIAC	14-6, 15-6	WON vs Concordia-Moorhead 62-54
#7	Gustavus Adolphus	MIAC	14-5, 15-5	WON at St. Mary's (Minn) 64-44, WON vs Macalester 68-52
#8	Dubuque	IIAC	15-3, 16-6	LOST vs Wartburg 73-66, LOST at Buena Vista 70-56
#9	Whitman	NWC	13-6, 15-6	WON at Pacific 78-71, WON at Linfield 87-60

[John Gleich]

These are the records as of the rankings, right?  Without the results of this week added?

[Greek Tragedy]

Yes, I will update records with the new rankings.

[Greek Tragedy]

With Regional Ranking #2 coming out tomorrow, I thought I'd post last week's rankings with their record for the week to give us an idea of any possible movement.

ATL
WK1	TEAM	CON.	REG./OVERALL	REC
#1	Staten Island	CUNYAC	15-2, 16-4	3-0
#2	William Paterson	NJAC	19-3, 19-3	2-0
#3	St. Joseph's (LI)	SKY	17-1, 17-2	2-1
#4	Richard Stockton	NJAC	14-6, 15-7	2-0
#5	New Jersey City	NJAC	14-4, 16-5	1-1

Not sure if St. Joseph's loss to Mount St. Mary's will be enough for Richard Stockton to leapfrog them.  I don't know who the #6 team would be to jump NJCU.

EAST                                   WK1       TEAM       CON.       REG./OVERALL              #1       Hartwick       E8       19-2, 20-2        2-0       #2       Oswego State       SUNYAC       17-2, 17-3        2-0       #3       NYU       UAA       17-2, 17-2        1-2       #4       Hobart       LL       15-4, 16-4        3-0       #5       Medaille       AMCC       19-2, 20-2        1-0       #6       Nazareth       E8       15-5, 15-7        1-1

NYU is sure to drop, possibly completely out?  Probably not.

GR. LK.
WK1	TEAM	CON.	REG./OVERALL
#1	Hope	MIAA	12-0, 20-1	2-0
#2	Wittenberg	NCAC	15-3, 17-4	1-1
#3	Wooster	NCAC	16-3, 18-3	1-1
#4	Ohio Wesleyan	NCAC	15-5, 16-5	1-1
#5	Wabash	NCAC	13-6, 15-6	2-0
#6	Capital	OAC	13-6, 14-7	1-1

I wouldn't think Wabash would jump over Witt, Woos and ONU, probably the latter, at the least.

MID.ATL                                   WK1       TEAM       CON.       REG./OVERALL              #1       Cabrini       CSAC       21-0, 21-1        2-0       #2       Keystone       CSAC       17-3, 17-3        2-1       #3       Lycoming       MACC       15-4, 17-5        0-2       #4       Mary Washington       CAC       14-4, 15-6        1-1       #5       Franklin & Marshall       CC       19-2, 19-2        2-0       #6       St. Mary's (Md)       CAC       14-5, 16-6        2-0       #7       Messiah       MACC       13-6, 14-6        2-0       #8       Misericordia       MACF       15-6, 15-6        2-0       #9       Alvernia       MACC       13-6, 15-6        1-1

Lycoming is obviously the big loser.

MW                                   WK1       TEAM       CON.       REG./OVERALL              #1       Washington U.       UAA       15-4, 15-5        2-0       #2       Transylvania       HCAC       18-1, 19-2        2-0       #3       Lake Forest       MWC       17-2, 18-2        1-0       #4       Wheaton (IL)       CCIW       15-4, 17-4        1-1       #5       North Central (IL)       CCIW       14-4, 15-6        1-1       #6       Illinois Wesleyan       CCIW       14-5, 16-5        1-1       #7       Edgewood       NATH       14-5, 16-5        2-0       #8       Concordia (WI)       NATH       15-4, 16-4        2-0

All three CCIW teams beat up on each other, basically, so not sure if the NathCon teams will move up or not.  I wouldn't imagine so.

NE                                   WK1       TEAM       CON.       REG./OVERALL              #1       Amherst       NESCAC       18-2, 20-2        2-0       #2       Middlebury       NESCAC       18-1, 20-1        1-1       #3       Rhode Island College       LEC       16-4, 16-4        2-1       #4       W. Connecticut       LEC       17-4, 17-4        2-0       #5       WPI       NEWMAC       16-4, 16-4        1-1       #6       E. Connecticut       LEC       17-4, 17-4        1-1       #7       MIT       NEWMAC       20-1, 20-1        2-0       #8       Keene State       LEC       14-3, 17-4        1-1       #9       Wesleyan (Conn)       NESCAC       17-4, 17-5        2-0       #10       Tufts       NESCAC       16-6, 16-6        0-1       #11       Becker       NECC       16-4, 16-4        3-0       #12       Albertus Magnus       GNAC       20-1, 20-1        2-0

Lots of losers, but probably not a lot of movement

SOUTH                                   WK1       TEAM       CON.       REG./OVERALL              #1       Mary Hardin-Baylor       ASC       19-1, 20-1        2-0       #2       Virginia Wesleyan       ODAC       17-2, 18-2        1-1       #3       Birmingham-Southern       SCAC       17-1, 20-1        2-0       #4       Randolph-Macon       ODAC       14-3, 17-4        2-0       #5       Christopher Newport       USAC       15-4, 18-4        1-0       #6       Emory       UAA       16-4, 16-4        2-0       #7       Guilford       ODAC       14-5, 15-6        1-1       #8       Hardin-Simmons       ASC       14-5, 16-5        1-1

I don't think Virginia Wesleyan will drop too much.

WEST                                   WK1       TEAM       CON.       REG./OVERALL              #1       River Falls       WIAC       16-3, 16-5        2-0       #2       Stevens Point       WIAC       16-4, 18-4        1-0       #3       Whitewater       WIAC       19-2, 19-2        1-1       #4       Whitworth       NWC       17-2, 18-3        2-0       #5       CMS       SCIAC       13-1, 19-1        2-0       #6       St. Thomas       MIAC       14-6, 15-6        1-0       #7       Gustavus Adolphus       MIAC       14-5, 15-5        2-0       #8       Dubuque       IIAC       15-3, 16-6        0-2       #9       Whitman       NWC       13-6, 15-6        2-0

Could CMS and Whitworth jump Whitewater?  Possibly Whitworth, but probably not CMS.

[WAlum]

The NCAC teams also beat up each other.  The NCAC had four of the top five teams in the Great Lakes rankings last week and all four played another regionally ranked team.  Wooster and Wittenberg played both of their games against regionally ranked teams.  #3 Wooster beat #4 Ohio Wesleyan, #5 Wabash beat #2 Wittenberg, and #2 Wittenberg beat #3 Wooster.  Tomorrow night, Wabash and OWU play one another.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Another reason for movement this week is that the first week did not incorporate 'results against regionally-ranked opponents' (since there were as yet no ranked teams.  The inclusion of that criterion may shake things up at least as much as last week's record.

[John Gleich]

Just for a taste... here's the West's RR's showing games against regionally ranked opponents:

River Falls 3-1  (one game against Whitewater forthcoming)
Stevens Point 5-2 (Augustana could potentially become regionally ranked, giving SP another loss, but better to play a RR team and lose than not to play at all)
Whitewater 4-2 (one game against River Falls forthcoming
Whitworth 1-2 (they play Whitman tonight, so this will be another RR game... lost last time at home)
CMS 0-0
St. Thomas 1-3
Gustavus Adolphus 3-1
Dubuque 0-0
Whitman 1-2 (they play Whitworth tonight at home, beat 'em on the road last time)

[ronk]

Just for a taste... here's the West's RR's showing games against regionally ranked opponents:

River Falls 3-1  (one game against Whitewater forthcoming)
Stevens Point 5-2 (Augustana could potentially become regionally ranked, giving SP another loss, but better to play a RR team and lose than not to play at all)Whitewater 4-2 (one game against River Falls forthcoming
Whitworth 1-2 (they play Whitman tonight, so this will be another RR game... lost last time at home)
CMS 0-0
St. Thomas 1-3
Gustavus Adolphus 3-1
Dubuque 0-0
Whitman 1-2 (they play Whitworth tonight at home, beat 'em on the road last time)

why?

[hickory_cornhusker]

Just for a taste... here's the West's RR's showing games against regionally ranked opponents:

River Falls 3-1  (one game against Whitewater forthcoming)
Stevens Point 5-2 (Augustana could potentially become regionally ranked, giving SP another loss, but better to play a RR team and lose than not to play at all)Whitewater 4-2 (one game against River Falls forthcoming
Whitworth 1-2 (they play Whitman tonight, so this will be another RR game... lost last time at home)
CMS 0-0
St. Thomas 1-3
Gustavus Adolphus 3-1
Dubuque 0-0
Whitman 1-2 (they play Whitworth tonight at home, beat 'em on the road last time)

why?

Shows you played a competitive schedule