Pool C

[Hugenerd]

I think Illinois Wesleyan, WPI, and Randolph Macon all have a better chance of getting a Pool C bid than a potential 8 loss Richard Stockton team, irrespective of whether they make the finals of their conference tournament (they currently have 7 losses overall, and another one would give them 8).  I think they dont have any real chance at a Pool C, because even if they make the top 8 for consideration, it does not appear to me their record would stack up well to teams from other regions.

[Knightstalker]

You are right about NJCU GT, they are not even in the NJAC tournament, they are toast.  The only NJAC with a Pool C shot is William Paterson, if they lose in the NJAC tournament, if they win the tournament they are the only NJAC rep in the NCAA's.

[Greek Tragedy]

Richard Stockton has 6 in-region losses.  Overall losses don't matter.  I would put them ahead of WPI because they have the same amount of losses, but I'm pretty sure RS has played more regionally ranked opponents.  At this time, RS is #4 and WPI is #7.  More teams to go through before WPI even makes the table.

[KnightSlappy]

Also, UWRF gets hurt a little bit for next week's rankings with Puget Sound breaking into the ranks as the Falcons lost at PS in November.

You can look at that two ways.  It HELPS them because it's another RESULT against a regionally ranked opponent, and then it HURTS because they LOST to them.  I think we've figured out on this board that it's better to lose against regionally ranked opponents than not to play them at all.

I think it's pretty equal, actually. I've found decent correlation with percentage versus regionally ranked opponents helping teams out in the rankings, but not with games played so far. Still not 100% what they're actually looking for here.

[KnightSlappy]

Richard Stockton has 6 in-region losses.  Overall losses don't matter.  I would put them ahead of WPI because they have the same amount of losses, but I'm pretty sure RS has played more regionally ranked opponents.  At this time, RS is #4 and WPI is #7.  More teams to go through before WPI even makes the table.

Overall losses do matter in the secondary criteria.

I agree with those saying that Richard Stockton will have hardly a prayer at a Pool C. (And this is all before considering upsets).

[KnightSlappy]

The LEC could get two Pool Cs out of Eastern Connecticut, Western Connecticut and Rhode Island College.  Middlebury is a lock, but WPI could be left out.
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I think it'll be real tough for two ODAC teams to get in.

Don't count the LEC out from getting three C's. It's always a stretch, but they have the numbers.
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You mean two Pool C's for the ODAC, right? I agree. I think Va Wes and RMC are looking pretty safe, but the only way they get two C's is for Guilford or Hampden-Sydney or someone to win the tournament.

[KnightSlappy]

Teams that are probably locks even if they lose out (not necessarily an exhaustive list):

Amherst
Cabrini
Hartwick
Hope
Mary Hardin-Baylor
Middlebury
MIT
Staten Island
Transylvania
UW-Whitewater
Virginia Wesleyan
Whitworth

[smedindy]

I think Wooster and Witt are on that list, perhaps.

[John Gleich]

What is the number of Pool C bids this year...?  19?


That's an important number to look at in terms of the Pool C possibilities when looking at regional rankings.  It's also important to see who's on the table and actually being compared... just like the NCAA committee will do.

As an aside, who has hosting preference for the first pod this year, men or women?

[KnightSlappy]

I think it's the mens year.

[KnightSlappy]

I think Wooster and Witt are on that list, perhaps.

You could really only have 19 locks at this point, because if every league had an upset then you'd burn through this lis pretty quickly. I really only wanted to name the tippy topp.

In all reasonableness, though, Woo and Witt are in. Yes.

[Hugenerd]

Richard Stockton has 6 in-region losses.  Overall losses don't matter.  I would put them ahead of WPI because they have the same amount of losses, but I'm pretty sure RS has played more regionally ranked opponents.  At this time, RS is #4 and WPI is #7.  More teams to go through before WPI even makes the table.

As Knight said, once you get the national table, overall losses do matter as a secondary criteria.  Also, WPI's SOS is one of the highest in the country (their OWP is 0.617, their OWP/OOWP is 0.588, RS's is 0.521/0.525).

Also, RS has not played more regionally ranked teams.  In last week's release, RS had a 1-2 record vs. regionally ranked opponents and WPI was 2-2.  I dont know if RS played anymore games this week, but WPI had one additional game vs a regionally ranked opponent, which will only boost their SOS further (because MIT's only loss is to WPI, with respect to OWP calculations for WPI, MIT is 22-0).

Therefore, considering for both teams to be in the Pool C conversation, they would need to lose at least 1 more game (in their conference tourney), that would give both teams 7 region losses, and RS 8 overall losses.  Given the weight SOS has been given in this years rankings, even if everything else is tied (for example, both teams had a nearly identical result vs. their only common opponent, West Conn), I would think that WPIs 0.588+ OWP/OOWP would trump RS's 0.525 (Note that WPIs OWP/OOWP will undoubtedly increase, as they already played MIT since the last release and they will play Springfield on a neutral court and possibly MIT on the road again, if they were to meet MIT in the NEWMAC finals, that game would count as a single game OWP value of 1.25, which will bring their OWP even higher than the current 0.617 it sits at now).  I am not saying WPI is a strong Pool C candidate, just that they have a much better chance than RS.  RS has no chance at a Pool C in my opinion.

[Greek Tragedy]

My bad on overall records not counting.    remember, I don't claim to be an expert! 

And I do mean 2 Pool C teams for the ODAC

Here's a scheduling quirk if I understand (almost) everything correctly.

Stevens Point beat Richard Stockton, but that game doesn't count as a regional opponent.  Yet that result will factor in when it comes to results against regionally ranked opponents!

Ummm.

[John Gleich]

I think Wooster and Witt are on that list, perhaps.

You could really only have 19 locks at this point, because if every league had an upset then you'd burn through this lis pretty quickly. I really only wanted to name the tippy topp.

In all reasonableness, though, Woo and Witt are in. Yes.

And, realistically, there may not BE 19 locks at this point.  Every team probably has a minimum of two games left and perhaps as many as 4 or 5 in some cases... so that could approach being a full 1/5th of the 25 game season... and it could vault someone ahead of others you could potentially put on that list.


... For a lock to truly be a lock, we've got to think about a perfect storm situation where everybody on this list gets upset.  After these 12, who would even be on the board?


One quibble I have with your list is putting Whitewater and Whitworth as locks and not including Stevens Point or River Falls.

I fully acknowledge that both lost this past week and they would each have to lose again to be eligible for Pool C... but they're currently 1/2 in the West, ahead of both Whitewater and Whitworth.  There may be enough of a shake-up in the regional rankings to put both Whits ahead (-ewater and -worth), but it's not immediately obvious that this will happen... due to Whitewater's loss last week which kept them firmly in the third slot.


There are so many possibilities here... if Whitewater manages to sweep River Falls and Point wins at Eau Claire, that makes SP the top seed in the WIAC tournament and River Falls the #3... playing an additional game on Tuesday in a game that, as I mentioned earlier, has been just a bear...

And it really begs the question of what would happen in the West.  It seems like River Falls is on top by virtue of their sweep of Point and Point is on top of Whitewater b/c SP swept WW... but what if WW completes the sweep of RF?

I'd almost think that would have to put WW in the top spot in the West... vaulting over RF... and then what happens with Whitworth?  You can't put them ahead of WW due to the head to head... but they would have a better resume than Point, it would seem (except that Point has one of the top SOS in the country and a bundle of games vs. Reg Ranked opponents to boot).


Oy... so much to think about... so many possibilities!  Kind of just want to get to a week from Sunday so we have the full slate of data to work with!

[KnightSlappy]

My bad on overall records not counting.    remember, I don't claim to be an expert! 

And I do mean 2 Pool C teams for the ODAC

Here's a scheduling quirk if I understand (almost) everything correctly.

Stevens Point beat Richard Stockton, but that game doesn't count as a regional opponent.  Yet that result will factor in when it comes to results against regionally ranked opponents!

Ummm.

Only in the secondary criteria.

For primary, it's in-region results versus regionally ranked teams.