Pool C

[KnightSlappy]

There's both an objective and a subjective piece to these rankings.

The question is where do you start... do you start with the objective, and then make adjustments subjectively, or do you start with the subjective, and make changes based upon the objective data?

It seems to me like the objective should be the starting point, with subjective adjustments. It doesn't make logical sense to make adjustments based on objective data... because adjustments are, by nature, subjective acts.

I happen to believe the subjective should never come into play. Whenever subjectivity enters the mix, the fairness level decreases. It's impossible to treat all teams the same (or equally) while dealing in the realm of subjectives. And the NCAA selection committee must treat all teams the same in order to be transparent and credible.

Fairness level?  What does that mean?  Why not the simple goal of awarding the best teams?  SOS is flawed by different numbers of conference games and regionally ranked games are flawed by the nature of the schedule as a team may be ranked before the most difficult portion of their schedule.  We need more subjective eyes to discern between teams.  Be transparent by disclosing who is voting for who.

By fairness I mean taking the exact same criteria and applying it to each team in the exact same way. It doesn't have to be the current criteria -- in fact I recommend it not be -- but whatever it is needs to be handled in a systematic way.

They are trying to find the "best" teams, or rather the most qualified ones, but it's not done the same way every time for every team in every situation. That's a problem.

[smedindy]

Grinding out a double round robin is tougher than a conference tourney.

For those 'bigger' conferences, it's still tough because you SHOULD double round one division (or make up divisions internally) and single round the others. NESCAC - take note!

[Ralph Turner]

Grinding out a double round robin is tougher than a conference tourney.

For those 'bigger' conferences, it's still tough because you SHOULD double round one division (or make up divisions internally) and single round the others. NESCAC - take note!

Yes, because the tourney usually has the "rubber match" in those two conference divisions!

[Greek Tragedy]

Here is my updated subjective list for the West Region

Point drops down, but only slightly, with two losses this week.  Whitworth jumps the Pointers.  Point stays ahead of Whitewater (beat them twice) and Stout (beat them once), but just barely.  Whitewater had a good week topping La Crosse (who just beat Point) and exacting revenge on an earlier loss to St. Norbert (probably ranked in the Midwest Region).

Really not sure about Platteville and La Crosse.  Their records aren't very good, but I'm sure their SOS is way above Luther and Buena Vista and they have played a lot more teams that will be regionally ranked as well.  They could sneak in 8th or 9th.

I'm excited to see the 1st regional rankings this Wednesday.

Updated

1. St. Thomas 20-1...status quo...topped Augsburg
2. Whitworth 20-1...status quo
3. Stevens Point 18-4...lost to Platteville and La Crosse
4. Whitewater 17-4...beat La Crosse and St. Norb's
5. Stout 17-4...beat Platteville
6. Augsburg 15-5...lost to St. Thomas again
7. Luther 15-5
8. Buena Vista 16-5
9. Platteville 15-7...beat Point, lost to Stout
10. La Crosse 14-7...beat Point, lost to Whitewater
11. Northwestern (MN) 15-6...lost to Crown
12. Redlands 15-5

[Titan Q]

Here is how I see the Midwest heading into the first ranking this week...

We will get our first regional rankings this Wednesday 2/6 (with games through Tuesday 2/5 included).  None of the teams in the Midwest mix play until Wednesday evening, so the in-region records you see below are the ones the Midwest Regional Advisory Committee will be using.

Here is my final projection of the ranking this week...

Midwest Region ranking projection (through Sunday, February 3)
1.      Ill. Wesleyan  .833 (15-3)/.515
2.      North Central  .842 (16-3)/.541
3.      Rose-Hulman  .900 (18-2)/.460
4.      Washington U  .789 (15-4)/.574
5.      Transylvania  .789 (15-4)/.577
6.      Wheaton  .737 (14-5)/.537
7.      Augustana  .750 (15-5)/.571
8.      Grinnell  .824 (14-3)/.482
-----
9.      St. Norbert  .789 (15-4)/.499

Notes
* My criteria includes 1) in-region winning %, 2) in-region SOS, and 3) in-region head-to-head.

* My SOS data is coming from KnightSlappy's regional ranking work on his blog.  These numbers are through 1/27, so the SOS figures are two games old in most cases.  I will update this when KnightSlappy does his next update.  Two games can make a significant difference. http://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/2010-2011-d3-mens-regional-rankings.html

* In-region head-to-head results considered:
  - Illinois Wesleyan - wins @ Wheaton, vs Augustana, vs NCC, @ Augustana, vs Wheaton...loss @ Wash U
  - North Central - wins vs Wheaton, vs Augustana...losses @ IWU, @ Wheaton
  - Transylvania - win @ Rose-Hulman...loss vs Rose-Hulman
  - Rose-Hulman - win @ Transylvania...loss @ Transylvania
  - Wash U - win vs IWU...loss @ Wheaton
  - Wheaton - wins @ Augustana, vs NCC, vs Wash U...losses @ NCC, vs IWU, @ IWU
  - Augustana - win @ St. Norbert...losses @NCC, @IWU, vs Wheaton, vs IWU
  - Grinnell - win @ St. Norbert
  - St. Norbert - no wins...losses vs Augustana, vs Grinnell

* Since there are no actual regional rankings yet, I have not factored in in-region results vs teams who will be ranked in other regions.  For example, Transylvania's win over Wooster (Great Lakes), Augustana's loss at UW-Stevens Point (West), Wash U's results vs UAA teams ranked in other regions, etc.

[KnightSlappy]

The best way to sort out the top five in the Midwest right now might be to draw names out of a hat. You could make a good argument for any one of them.

[KnightSlappy]

I think the Great Lakes will look like (WP/SOS) :

1. Calvin (1.000/.423)
2. Wooster (.850/.547)
3. Ohio Wesleyan (.842/.554)
4. Thomas More (.895/.453)
5. St. Vincent (.824/.485)
6. Capital (.789/.500)
--------
7. Marietta (.762/.479)
8. Baldwin Wallace (.750/.480)
9. Hope (.667/.542)
10. Wittenberg (.647/.545)
11. Adrian (.625/.549)

St. Vincent is the least safe as their only "game" was a loss to Thomas More. Calvin doesn't have a good SOS, but they've beaten two teams that Wooster lost too (Adrian and Wabash) so there's some cushion there.

If it were up to me, I'd like to see Thomas More and (especially) St. Vincent out of the picture, but I know the committee loves winning percentage above SOS. I'd love to see Capital, Hope, and probably Marietta be 4, 5, and 6.

[sac]

Thomas More plays 3 players taller than 6-2.  They are 6-3, 6-4 and 6-4.

[Titan Q]

The best way to sort out the top five in the Midwest right now might be to draw names out of a hat. You could make a good argument for any one of them.

As I posted on the CCIW board...

In my Midwest region projection, I felt confident about spots:

* #1 (IWU) -  due to the number of wins IWU has against the other ranked teams.  Five might be the most wins any team in the country currently has over other teams in their region.  I haven't looked at that, but five seems like a huge number.

* #7 (Augie) and #8 (Grinnell) - seems to me these are the bottom two right now, all things considered.

But spots 2-6 were extremely difficult.  Honestly, you could make a case for absolutely any order between North Central, Rose-Hulman, Wash U, Transylvania, and Wheaton.

In my projection, I'm the least comfortable with where I have Wheaton (#6).  With wins over NCC, Augustana, and Wash U, the Thunder could easily be slotted higher.

[Greek Tragedy]

I didnt realize games were through Tuesday. I always thought it was through just Sunday's games. Interesting.

[Titan Q]

I didnt realize games were through Tuesday. I always thought it was through just Sunday's games. Interesting.

I think that's the case.  Someone check me on that.

[ronk]

  MY Mid-Atlantic regional ranking projection(thru 3 Feb)

1. Catholic(17-2)
2. St. Mary's(14-2)
3. Wesley(14-2)
4. Albright(18-3)
5. F&M(13-4)
6. Dickinson(14-5)
7. Alvernia(16-4)
8. Scranton(15-6)
9. Cabrini(14-4)
10. Salisbury(12-6)
11. DeSales(15-5)
12. Arcadia(13-6)

[Pat Coleman]

Their rankings are through Sunday.

[KnightSlappy]

In my projection, I'm the least comfortable with where I have Wheaton (#6).  With wins over NCC, Augustana, and Wash U, the Thunder could easily be slotted higher.

And their win over Calvin isn't insignificant if things are tight. It would mean getting into the secondary criteria, but that could potentially be big for Wheaton.

[algernon]

My South regional ranking projection (thru 3 Feb), with regional and overall records, and also SoS:

1.  Hampden-Sydney  (ODAC)      15-2        19-2     .520
2.  Mary Hardin-Baylor  (ASC)      18-3        18-3     .550
3.  Christopher Newport  (USAC)  14-3         15-3     .529
4.  Emory (UAA)                         14-4         14-4     .556
5.  Concordia (Texas) (ASC)         14-4         16-5     .547
6.  Centre (SAA)                          10-3         15-3     .512
7.  Guilford (ODAC)                      13-5         16-5     .542
8.  Virginia Wesleyan  (ODAC)       11-5         14-6     .511