Pool C

[Mr. Ypsi]

Thoughts and Questions:

* Now that Rochester had made it interesting, what are the tiebrakers in the UAA?  Generally, I see all 3 of the potential tie-ees in (Brandeis, Rochester and Washington), so it might not matter.

* I don't think the CCIW will have a bubble burst unless Augustana surprises as I can't see all of Wheaton, North Central and IWU in the tournament.

* Rutger-Newark vs. Richard Stockton looks almost like a play in game for the tournament at this point. 

* Does Stout have a realistic path to the tournament without winning the WIAC?

The three that could tie are Rochester, Washington, and Emory (not Brandeis).  IF Emory beats Rochester and WashU beats Chicago, there would be a 3-way tie, which if UAA tie-break rules are fairly typical (h-to-h, then conference opponents beginning from the top), WashU would win the AQ (split w/ Rochester, swept Emory, while Rochester would have split w/ Emory).  I don't know if these are the UAA tie-break procedures (I asked on the UAA board), but probably moot anyway, as all 3 appear to be veritable locks for a Pool C.

[Titan Q]

The three that could tie are Rochester, Washington, and Emory (not Brandeis).  IF Emory beats Rochester and WashU beats Chicago, there would be a 3-way tie, which if UAA tie-break rules are fairly typical (h-to-h, then conference opponents beginning from the top), WashU would win the AQ (split w/ Rochester, swept Emory, while Rochester would have split w/ Emory).  I don't know if these are the UAA tie-break procedures (I asked on the UAA board), but probably moot anyway, as all 3 appear to be veritable locks for a Pool C.

I'm guessing bopol meant to type "Emory" instead of "Brandeis"...if he did, I agree with him.  Rochester, Wash U, and Emory are all safe bets to make the field.

A week ago Rochester was positioned to potentially be the overall #1-seed in the 2013 tournament.  Now they have to go to Emory and win just to claim the UAA's AQ.

[Hugenerd]

Just wanted to revisit your thoughts on the NEWMAC.  I think it is safe to say that WPI is in regardless of what they do in the tourney (even if they lost in the tourney, they should be real safe at 23-3 or 24-3). 

Now with regard to MIT and Springfield.  For either team to be in Pool C contention, they will need to pick up another loss, but that loss will be to a RRO.  Do you think MIT, at 20-5 or 21-5 (substract one out of region win), is definitely in at this point?  Also, can you realistically see an 8 loss Springfield team getting in?   Based on last week's regional rankings, I still think Brandeis would probably be ranked ahead of them (their numbers are similar, across the board, but I doubt Brandeis will be penalized for a loss to a good WashU team). 

As an MIT fan, the scenario that makes me most worried would be a case where Brandeis loses to NYU next week, and then Springfield beats MIT but then loses to WPI.  In this scenario, you could see a situation where MIT and Springfield are ranked next to eachother in the NE region rankings, and Springfield gets pushed ahead of MIT because of the 2-1 season advantage.  In that scenario, you could see that ranking keeping both teams out, as an 8 loss Springfield team may not be as competitive to the other region teams without the head-to-head results.  For that reason, MIT needs to take care of business next week, but if not, they better hope someone falls between them and Springfield.   3 losses may be sufficient to keep them ahead of Springfield and outweigh the season series loss (especially since it would be 2-1), but I wouldnt want to sweat that one out.

[Titan Q]

Just wanted to revisit your thoughts on the NEWMAC.  I think it is safe to say that WPI is in regardless of what they do in the tourney (even if they lost in the tourney, they should be real safe at 23-3 or 24-3). 

Now with regard to MIT and Springfield.  For either team to be in Pool C contention, they will need to pick up another loss, but that loss will be to a RRO.  Do you think MIT, at 20-5 or 21-5 (substract one out of region win), is definitely in at this point?  Also, can you realistically see an 8 loss Springfield team getting in?   Based on last week's regional rankings, I still think Brandeis would probably be ranked ahead of them (their numbers are similar, across the board, but I doubt Brandeis will be penalized for a loss to a good WashU team). 

As an MIT fan, the scenario that makes me most worried would be a case where Brandeis loses to NYU next week, and then Springfield beats MIT but then loses to WPI.  In this scenario, you could see a situation where MIT and Springfield are ranked next to eachother in the NE region rankings, and Springfield gets pushed ahead of MIT because of the 2-1 season advantage.  In that scenario, you could see that ranking keeping both teams out, as an 8 loss Springfield team may not be as competitive to the other region teams without the head-to-head results.  For that reason, MIT needs to take care of business next week, but if not, they better hope someone falls between them and Springfield.   3 losses may be sufficient to keep them ahead of Springfield and outweigh the season series loss (especially since it would be 2-1), but I wouldnt want to sweat that one out.

I agree that WPI is in for sure, whether Pool A or Pool C.  On Springfield/MIT...

With 1-1 in the NEWMAC tournament, I think MIT is safely in.  I have MIT at #8 now, and at 1-1 MIT really wouldn't lose ground to the field -- all teams in the Pool C mix at the end, except the UAAs, will lose another game too.  So even if MIT is really more like 12 now, I think they're pretty secure (with 1-1).  With a loss in the NEWMAC semis to Springfield, things get dicey.

For Springfield the situation isn't quite as positive.  With 1-1 in the conference tournament, I think Springfield would remain on the bubble (I consider spot #13 "the bubble" once you factor in conference tournament upsets), and have a decent chance to get in.  But if Springfield loses to MIT in the semis, I think they move to the wrong side of the bubble. 

Another big factor for Springfield is the regional ranking position relative to Brandeis.  In the third ranking, I predict the following for the top 8 spots in the NE...

1. Amherst
2. WPI
3. Williams
4. Rhode Island
5. MIT
6. Middlebury
7. Springfield
8. Brandeis

If Brandeis stays ahead of Springfield, that would be bad news for coach Brock's team.  I think when the dust settles, one of those two probably gets in as a Pool C, but not both.

Last year there was some kind of confusion about the final NE ranking.  I think it involved Wesleyan -- if I recall, many of us couldn't figure out how Wesleyan didn't get selected for Pool C, and we later speculated that some other team must have been ranked ahead of Wesleyan in the final ranking, and blocked Wesleyan from getting to the table.  Without question the final regional ranking order is huge - I think the Regional Advisory Committees have to really think hard about how the teams will fare in the national Pool C process when they put those rankings together.  I remember 5 years ago when IWU beat Wheaton 3 times, but the Midwest committee ranked Wheaton higher in the final poll...because Wheaton was the better Pool C candidate than IWU.  And they were right.  Wheaton ended up getting in...IWU would have had no chance and would have just sat there on the board and blocked Wheaton from ever being discussed.

Just my take FWIW!

[Hugenerd]

I agree with you for the most part (I could see Springfield and Brandeis flipped).

I really hope they take care of business next weekend, but IF MIT were to lose to Springfield, I would almost rather have the Pride win the NEWMAC tourney than possibly block MIT from a Pool C (by being potentially ranked ahead of them in NE region Pool C ranks due to the head-to-head result, although 3 less losses could still keep MIT ahead of them).  Youd think Amherst/Williams/Midd would come off the board real fast, as would WPI, and then just hope RIC is not upset.  In that case, MIT probably gets to the table with at least 10 spots remaining and would have a good chance at a Pool C.

[KnightSlappy]

Regional ranking-type numbers have been updated through Sunday (including results vRRO).

http://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/2010-2011-d3-mens-regional-rankings.html

[Bucket]

Just wanted to revisit your thoughts on the NEWMAC.  I think it is safe to say that WPI is in regardless of what they do in the tourney (even if they lost in the tourney, they should be real safe at 23-3 or 24-3). 

Now with regard to MIT and Springfield.  For either team to be in Pool C contention, they will need to pick up another loss, but that loss will be to a RRO.  Do you think MIT, at 20-5 or 21-5 (substract one out of region win), is definitely in at this point?  Also, can you realistically see an 8 loss Springfield team getting in?   Based on last week's regional rankings, I still think Brandeis would probably be ranked ahead of them (their numbers are similar, across the board, but I doubt Brandeis will be penalized for a loss to a good WashU team). 

As an MIT fan, the scenario that makes me most worried would be a case where Brandeis loses to NYU next week, and then Springfield beats MIT but then loses to WPI.  In this scenario, you could see a situation where MIT and Springfield are ranked next to eachother in the NE region rankings, and Springfield gets pushed ahead of MIT because of the 2-1 season advantage.  In that scenario, you could see that ranking keeping both teams out, as an 8 loss Springfield team may not be as competitive to the other region teams without the head-to-head results.  For that reason, MIT needs to take care of business next week, but if not, they better hope someone falls between them and Springfield.   3 losses may be sufficient to keep them ahead of Springfield and outweigh the season series loss (especially since it would be 2-1), but I wouldnt want to sweat that one out.

I agree that WPI is in for sure, whether Pool A or Pool C.  On Springfield/MIT...

With 1-1 in the NEWMAC tournament, I think MIT is safely in.  I have MIT at #8 now, and at 1-1 MIT really wouldn't lose ground to the field -- all teams in the Pool C mix at the end, except the UAAs, will lose another game too.  So even if MIT is really more like 12 now, I think they're pretty secure (with 1-1).  With a loss in the NEWMAC semis to Springfield, things get dicey.

For Springfield the situation isn't quite as positive.  With 1-1 in the conference tournament, I think Springfield would remain on the bubble (I consider spot #13 "the bubble" once you factor in conference tournament upsets), and have a decent chance to get in.  But if Springfield loses to MIT in the semis, I think they move to the wrong side of the bubble. 

Another big factor for Springfield is the regional ranking position relative to Brandeis.  In the third ranking, I predict the following for the top 8 spots in the NE...

1. Amherst
2. WPI
3. Williams
4. Rhode Island
5. MIT
6. Middlebury
7. Springfield
8. Brandeis

I just do not see Middlebury being ranked below RIC regionally. Middlebury has a higher winning percentage, higher strength of schedule, higher RPI. Against regionally ranked opponents, Midd is 1-2 and RIC is 3-3. (Within the specific region Midd is 0-2, but the losses are to #1 and #3.)

[Titan Q]

I just do not see Middlebury being ranked below RIC regionally. Middlebury has a higher winning percentage, higher strength of schedule, higher RPI. Against regionally ranked opponents, Midd is 1-2 and RIC is 3-3. (Within the specific region Midd is 0-2, but the losses are to #1 and #3.)

Based on the updated SOS numbers KnightSlappy just posted, you are probably right.  I was basing my ranking off the following numbers (with SOS through 2/10 as I noted)...

- Middlebury (Northeast, NESCAC) - 19-2 (.905)/.521/1-2
- Rhode Island (Northeast, LEC) - 22-3 (.880)/.539/3-3

RIC was better in two of the three.

Now, Middlebury's SOS is .534 and RIC's is .530 per KnightSlappy.  That's enough to flip Middlebury back ahead of RIC for me.

Tonight I'll try to update my Pool C projections with the updated SOS...I'm guessing it will have some impact on my order.

[KnightSlappy]

I just do not see Middlebury being ranked below RIC regionally. Middlebury has a higher winning percentage, higher strength of schedule, higher RPI. Against regionally ranked opponents, Midd is 1-2 and RIC is 3-3. (Within the specific region Midd is 0-2, but the losses are to #1 and #3.)

Based on the updated SOS numbers KnightSlappy just posted, you are probably right.  I was basing my ranking off the following numbers (with SOS through 2/10 as I noted)...

- Middlebury (Northeast, NESCAC) - 19-2 (.905)/.521/1-2
- Rhode Island (Northeast, LEC) - 22-3 (.880)/.539/3-3

RIC was better in two of the three.

Now, Middlebury's SOS is .534 and RIC's is .530 per KnightSlappy.  That's enough to flip Middlebury back ahead of RIC for me.

Tonight I'll try to update my Pool C projections with the updated SOS...I'm guessing it will have some impact on my order.

Also Tufts probably will slide into the rankings which would help out Middlebury.

[Ralph Turner]

I need some perspective on how much difference there is in .004 of an SOS point.  Is 0.004 a statistical "wash"?

0.040 is one loss in a 25 game season.  RIC is "one-half" loss (0.25) behind Middlebury.

Just before he died in 2009, our UAA friend, Pabegg, calculated the difference that one loss would make for me.  Here is that link and his analysis.

http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.2384


Final edit...

As one looks thru pabegg's numbers, 0.004 is roughly one-half "McMurry" win in North Central's SOS.  Please remember that that SOS calculation did not have a home/away/neutral adjustment. 

Therefore Middlebury is slotted as "one-half Connecticut College win over Westminster PA" better than RIC.

[Charles]

I need some perspective on how much difference there is in .004 of an SOS point.  Is 0.004 a statistical "wash"?

0.040 is one loss in a 25 game season.  RIC is "one-half" loss (0.25) behind Middlebury.

Just before he died in 2009, our UAA friend, Pabegg, calculated the difference that one loss would make for me.  Here is that link and his analysis.

http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.2384

posts from the grave...

[KnightSlappy]

I need some perspective on how much difference there is in .004 of an SOS point.  Is 0.004 a statistical "wash"?

0.040 is one loss in a 25 game season.  RIC is "one-half" loss (0.25) behind Middlebury.

(Just before he died in 2009, our UAA friend calculated the difference that one loss would make for me.  I am not sure where that is on these boards.  I will try to find that series of posts.)

It really depends on how the committee weighs the WP vs. SOS vs. the other criteria.

The spread in SOS is currently .227 (.612 to .385) and the spread of WP is currently .960 (.960 to .000) so .004 might be like .017 in winning percentage (which would be something like a half a win in a 25 game schedule).

[Ralph Turner]

I need some perspective on how much difference there is in .004 of an SOS point.  Is 0.004 a statistical "wash"?

0.040 is one loss in a 25 game season.  RIC is "one-half" loss (0.25) behind Middlebury.

Just before he died in 2009, our UAA friend, Pabegg, calculated the difference that one loss would make for me.  Here is that link and his analysis.

http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.2384

posts from the grave...

Requiem in pace, pabegg!

Charles, (and I am not patronizing you) I am assuming that you were not a frequent poster on these boards back in 2009.   

Respectfully, pabegg was greatly admired and most deservedly Hall of Fame.  I am sure that he would have loved the discussions about the SOS that is being used this year. He would certainly have been a frequent and astute critic of the process and the outcome.

[Hugenerd]

I just do not see Middlebury being ranked below RIC regionally. Middlebury has a higher winning percentage, higher strength of schedule, higher RPI. Against regionally ranked opponents, Midd is 1-2 and RIC is 3-3. (Within the specific region Midd is 0-2, but the losses are to #1 and #3.)

Based on the updated SOS numbers KnightSlappy just posted, you are probably right.  I was basing my ranking off the following numbers (with SOS through 2/10 as I noted)...

- Middlebury (Northeast, NESCAC) - 19-2 (.905)/.521/1-2
- Rhode Island (Northeast, LEC) - 22-3 (.880)/.539/3-3

RIC was better in two of the three.

Now, Middlebury's SOS is .534 and RIC's is .530 per KnightSlappy.  That's enough to flip Middlebury back ahead of RIC for me.

Tonight I'll try to update my Pool C projections with the updated SOS...I'm guessing it will have some impact on my order.

Also Tufts probably will slide into the rankings which would help out Middlebury.

However, Tufts being ranked would not affect the vRRO this week, it would only be considered in next week's rankings.  Thats why there are no vRRO the first week, they only take into account RRO from previous weeks (the same reason why the win over Plattsburgh did not give them a vRRO win last week and will this week).

I need some perspective on how much difference there is in .004 of an SOS point.  Is 0.004 a statistical "wash"?

0.040 is one loss in a 25 game season.  RIC is "one-half" loss (0.25) behind Middlebury.

Just before he died in 2009, our UAA friend, Pabegg, calculated the difference that one loss would make for me.  Here is that link and his analysis.

http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.2384


Final edit...

As one looks thru pabegg's numbers, 0.004 is roughly one-half "McMurry" win in North Central's SOS.  Please remember that that SOS calculation did not have a home/away/neutral adjustment. 

Therefore Middlebury is slotted as "one-half Connecticut College win over Westminster PA" better than RIC.

I would consider 0.004 of SOS as a wash. Remember, its not just OWP, it also factors OOWP.  So it could also be one of your opponents opponents winning one more game, which seems pretty much negligible.  Remember that all of RICs losses are against teams that are ranked, including the top 2 teams.  I think the additional games against ranked teams gives them an edge.  Middlebury hasnt beaten any of the 12 teams ranked until now, so its hard to gauge where they fall just from the numbers, in my opinion.

[Hugenerd]

I just do not see Middlebury being ranked below RIC regionally. Middlebury has a higher winning percentage, higher strength of schedule, higher RPI. Against regionally ranked opponents, Midd is 1-2 and RIC is 3-3. (Within the specific region Midd is 0-2, but the losses are to #1 and #3.)

Based on the updated SOS numbers KnightSlappy just posted, you are probably right.  I was basing my ranking off the following numbers (with SOS through 2/10 as I noted)...

- Middlebury (Northeast, NESCAC) - 19-2 (.905)/.521/1-2
- Rhode Island (Northeast, LEC) - 22-3 (.880)/.539/3-3

RIC was better in two of the three.

Now, Middlebury's SOS is .534 and RIC's is .530 per KnightSlappy.  That's enough to flip Middlebury back ahead of RIC for me.

Tonight I'll try to update my Pool C projections with the updated SOS...I'm guessing it will have some impact on my order.

You also have to remember that the way Knightslappy is calculating SOS (based on the explanation on the page linked above), is not the way the NCAA is doing it.  Therefore, despite Knightslappy having Midd slightly ahead, when the NCAA comes out with their numbers, RIC could still be ahead.  I think we all agree that the way the NCAA is doing it is incorrect currently (because the home/away multiplier essentially cancels out), but they are still going to be using their numbers when they are making decisions.