Pool C

Started by Pat Coleman, January 20, 2006, 02:35:54 PM

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Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

He has a three-page explanation if you want it :)
Host of Hoopsville. USBWA Executive Board member. Broadcast Director for D3sports.com. Broadcaster for NCAA.com & several colleges. PA Announcer for Gophers & Brigade. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.

carthage guy

For the more casual observer ;D

how are conference tourney losses figured...  Carthage will end up with 1 more loss if they do not win the conference tourney.  Do they have any shot of a pool C with this many losses still... It seems like 6 or 7 was a max in the past

sac

Quote from: carthage guy on February 20, 2014, 12:29:19 PM
For the more casual observer ;D

how are conference tourney losses figured...  Carthage will end up with 1 more loss if they do not win the conference tourney.  Do they have any shot of a pool C with this many losses still... It seems like 6 or 7 was a max in the past

By definition, Pool C teams will all lose one more game.  Their standing within the Pool C pool is affected more by upsets in the AQ ranks.  Root for the top seeds.

KnightSlappy

#4893
    Quote from: sac on February 20, 2014, 12:07:27 PM
    Quote from: KnightSlappy on February 20, 2014, 11:19:35 AM
    Five ranked teams benefiting the most from the NCAA's SOS calculation method (NCAA/'Correct'):
    1.   NYU – (.551/.498) +.051
    2.   Guilford – (.541/.499) +.041
    3.   Scranton – (.549/.512) +.037
    4.   Dubuque – (.509/.481) +.027
    5.   Whitworth – (.521/.494) + .027

    Those are a little alarming.  I need a refresher on what's incorrect about it.

    Short answer: everything.

    Long answer: they seem to be adding the multiplier to the adjusted win and loss totals, and then summing these for all opponents to come up with weighted OWP and OOWP figures. Example:

    Neutral vs. Opponent A: 10-2 x 1.0 = 10-2
    Neutral vs. Opponent B: 5-5 x 1.0 = 5-5

    Sums to a weighted record of 15-7 = 0.682 OWP

    (Switch Opponent B to a home game. Should be an 'easier' schedule, right?)

    Neutral vs. Opponent A: 10-2 x 1.0 = 10-2
    Home vs. Opponent B: 5-5 x 0.75 = 3.75-3.75[/li][/list]

    Sums to a weighted record of 13.75-5.75= 0.705 OWP (HARDER SCHEDULE!)

    The correct way to do this is to apply the multiplier to the percentages:

    Neutral vs. Opponent A: 10-2 = 0.833 x 1.0 = 0.833
    Neutral vs. Opponent B: 5-5 = 0.500 x 1.0 = 0.500

    Averaging the percentages = 0.667 OWP

    (Switch Opponent B to a home game. Should be an 'easier' schedule, right?)

    Neutral vs. Opponent A: 10-2 = 0.833 x 1.0 = 0.833
    Home vs. Opponent B: 5-5 = 0.500 x 0.75 = 0.375

    Averaging the percentages = 0.604 OWP (it is an easier schedule, YAY!)

    KnightSlappy

    #4894
    Five ranked teams most hurt by the SOS calculation method (NCAA/correct):
    1.   Wesley (.519/.552) -0.043
    2.   Brockport State (.547/.574) -.027
    3.   Amherst (.588/.606) -0.022
    4.   Emory (.603/.621) -.018
    5.   Middlebury (.562/.579) -0.017

    One standard deviation of difference between the NCAA's way and the correct way is 0.0166. So 95% of schools will have an actual SOS within 0.033 or below the reported number. So we can be reasonably confident (95%, basically) that when an SOS shows up on the NCAA's data sheets as 0.500, that it really is between 0.467 and 0.533.

    KnightSlappy

    Quote from: sac on February 20, 2014, 12:33:12 PM
    Quote from: carthage guy on February 20, 2014, 12:29:19 PM
    For the more casual observer ;D

    how are conference tourney losses figured...  Carthage will end up with 1 more loss if they do not win the conference tourney.  Do they have any shot of a pool C with this many losses still... It seems like 6 or 7 was a max in the past

    By definition, Pool C teams will all lose one more game.  Their standing within the Pool C pool is affected more by upsets in the AQ ranks.  Root for the top seeds.

    Not necessarily. The UAA doesn't have a tournament, and the SAA champion could end up in Pool C. But in general, yes. Figure on a loss for 90%+ of the Pool C candidates.

    bopol

    Quote from: KnightSlappy on February 19, 2014, 12:07:07 PM
    The new data sheets are live on NCAA.com

    http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3

    Looks like vRRO is based on last week's rankings.

    Dumb question, but is anyone else getting the 2013 rankings when they click on the link?

    magicman

    Quote from: bopol on February 20, 2014, 02:37:48 PM
    Quote from: KnightSlappy on February 19, 2014, 12:07:07 PM
    The new data sheets are live on NCAA.com

    http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3

    Looks like vRRO is based on last week's rankings.

    Dumb question, but is anyone else getting the 2013 rankings when they click on the link?

    Not a dumb question bopol, as I was going to ask KnightSlappy the same thing. I'm also getting the 2013 numbers instead of this year's.  Help us out here KS. Where's the link to this year's numbers?

    Flying Dutch Fan

    Quote from: magicman on February 20, 2014, 03:17:22 PM
    Quote from: bopol on February 20, 2014, 02:37:48 PM
    Quote from: KnightSlappy on February 19, 2014, 12:07:07 PM
    The new data sheets are live on NCAA.com

    http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3

    Looks like vRRO is based on last week's rankings.

    Dumb question, but is anyone else getting the 2013 rankings when they click on the link?

    Not a dumb question bopol, as I was going to ask KnightSlappy the same thing. I'm also getting the 2013 numbers instead of this year's.  Help us out here KS. Where's the link to this year's numbers?

    I get the current numbers, and I'm clicking the link quoted above.  Maybe you guys need to clear your browser history (might be loading something cached)?
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    KnightSlappy

    Quote from: magicman on February 20, 2014, 03:17:22 PM
    Quote from: bopol on February 20, 2014, 02:37:48 PM
    Quote from: KnightSlappy on February 19, 2014, 12:07:07 PM
    The new data sheets are live on NCAA.com

    http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3

    Looks like vRRO is based on last week's rankings.

    Dumb question, but is anyone else getting the 2013 rankings when they click on the link?

    Not a dumb question bopol, as I was going to ask KnightSlappy the same thing. I'm also getting the 2013 numbers instead of this year's.  Help us out here KS. Where's the link to this year's numbers?

    The rankings show up correctly, but the linked data sheets are from last year.

    I'm not sure why, but these last two weeks they've removed the data sheets from the rankings page the next day. I saved copies to my computer yesterday.   8-)

    magicman

    Quote from: KnightSlappy on February 20, 2014, 03:22:27 PM
    Quote from: magicman on February 20, 2014, 03:17:22 PM
    Quote from: bopol on February 20, 2014, 02:37:48 PM
    Quote from: KnightSlappy on February 19, 2014, 12:07:07 PM
    The new data sheets are live on NCAA.com

    http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3

    Looks like vRRO is based on last week's rankings.

    Dumb question, but is anyone else getting the 2013 rankings when they click on the link?

    Not a dumb question bopol, as I was going to ask KnightSlappy the same thing. I'm also getting the 2013 numbers instead of this year's.  Help us out here KS. Where's the link to this year's numbers?

    The rankings show up correctly, but the linked data sheets are from last year.

    I'm not sure why, but these last two weeks they've removed the data sheets from the rankings page the next day. I saved copies to my computer yesterday.   8-)

    Thanks KS,

    That's correct. I'm getting the current regional rankings off the link you posted which I already had in my favorites file. When you mentioned the vRRO I then used the link you provided to look at that. That's when I discovered that the PDF files at the bottom of the rankings that bring up the data sheets are bringing up last year's. So you are also getting the same thing now, but yesterday they had this year's data sheet's that have magically disappeared and turned into last year's. Is that correct? ???

    AO

    Maybe I missed something in this thread, but why wasn't the multiplier calculation fixed?

    bopol

    Quote from: KnightSlappy on February 20, 2014, 03:22:27 PM
    Quote from: magicman on February 20, 2014, 03:17:22 PM
    Quote from: bopol on February 20, 2014, 02:37:48 PM
    Quote from: KnightSlappy on February 19, 2014, 12:07:07 PM
    The new data sheets are live on NCAA.com

    http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3

    Looks like vRRO is based on last week's rankings.

    Dumb question, but is anyone else getting the 2013 rankings when they click on the link?

    Not a dumb question bopol, as I was going to ask KnightSlappy the same thing. I'm also getting the 2013 numbers instead of this year's.  Help us out here KS. Where's the link to this year's numbers?

    The rankings show up correctly, but the linked data sheets are from last year.

    I'm not sure why, but these last two weeks they've removed the data sheets from the rankings page the next day. I saved copies to my computer yesterday.   8-)

    Thanks.   I don't suppose you could post them here (or maybe feed them to D3hoops so they can post them.


    Greek Tragedy

    #4903
    I click on the PDF links and come up with current stuff, I think.

    http://web1.ncaa.org/champsel_new/exec/pdf/staticpdfrank

    "Generated 02/17/2014 11:15 AM"


    EDIT:

    When I click on the link from my post, it's blank, but if I go to

    http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3

    and then click on the PDF links at the bottom it works for me.
    Pointers
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    Greek Tragedy

    Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 20, 2014, 02:37:17 AM
    GREEN is conference leader/winner/#1 seed




       REG      #1      #2      TEAM-RECORD      REC      CON       SCHEDULE   
       MW      1      1      Washington U.       20-2, 20-2      UAA      vs Case Western Reserve 2/21, vs Carnegie Mellon 2/23   
       MW      2      2      Illinois Wesleyan       20-3, 20-3      CCIW      WON vs North Park 107-61, at Wheaton (IL) 2/22   
       MW      3      3      Wheaton (Ill.)       17-7, 17-7      CCIW      vs Illinois Wesleyan 2/22   
       MW      4      4      Augustana       18-6, 18-6      CCIW      at North Park 2/22   
       MW      5      5      St. Norbert       19-1, 20-1      MWC      WON at Ripon 78-62, vs Illinois College 2/22   
       MW      6      6      Carthage       14-8, 15-9      CCIW      vs Millikin 2/22   
       MW      7      7      Rose-Hulman       19-4, 19-4      HCAC      WON at Franklin 71-69, at Mount St. Joseph 2/22   
       MW      8      8      MSOE       20-4, 20-4      NACC      WON vs Wisconsin Lutheran 84-70, vs Edgewood


    Marian actually won the NACC. They were 17-3 and 19-6 overall. So MSOE should still be in my Pool C only table.
    Pointers
    Breed of a Champion
    2004, 2005, 2010 and 2015 National Champions

    Fantasy Leagues Commissioner

    TGHIJGSTO!!!