Pool C

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

He has a three-page explanation if you want it

[carthage guy]

For the more casual observer

how are conference tourney losses figured...  Carthage will end up with 1 more loss if they do not win the conference tourney.  Do they have any shot of a pool C with this many losses still... It seems like 6 or 7 was a max in the past

[sac]

For the more casual observer

how are conference tourney losses figured...  Carthage will end up with 1 more loss if they do not win the conference tourney.  Do they have any shot of a pool C with this many losses still... It seems like 6 or 7 was a max in the past

By definition, Pool C teams will all lose one more game.  Their standing within the Pool C pool is affected more by upsets in the AQ ranks.  Root for the top seeds.

[KnightSlappy]

Five ranked teams benefiting the most from the NCAA's SOS calculation method (NCAA/'Correct'):
1.   NYU – (.551/.498) +.051
2.   Guilford – (.541/.499) +.041
3.   Scranton – (.549/.512) +.037
4.   Dubuque – (.509/.481) +.027
5.   Whitworth – (.521/.494) + .027

Those are a little alarming.  I need a refresher on what's incorrect about it.

Short answer: everything.

Long answer: they seem to be adding the multiplier to the adjusted win and loss totals, and then summing these for all opponents to come up with weighted OWP and OOWP figures. Example:

Neutral vs. Opponent A: 10-2 x 1.0 = 10-2
Neutral vs. Opponent B: 5-5 x 1.0 = 5-5

Sums to a weighted record of 15-7 = 0.682 OWP

(Switch Opponent B to a home game. Should be an 'easier' schedule, right?)

Neutral vs. Opponent A: 10-2 x 1.0 = 10-2
Home vs. Opponent B: 5-5 x 0.75 = 3.75-3.75[/li][/list]

Sums to a weighted record of 13.75-5.75= 0.705 OWP (HARDER SCHEDULE!)

The correct way to do this is to apply the multiplier to the percentages:

Neutral vs. Opponent A: 10-2 = 0.833 x 1.0 = 0.833
Neutral vs. Opponent B: 5-5 = 0.500 x 1.0 = 0.500

Averaging the percentages = 0.667 OWP

(Switch Opponent B to a home game. Should be an 'easier' schedule, right?)

Neutral vs. Opponent A: 10-2 = 0.833 x 1.0 = 0.833
Home vs. Opponent B: 5-5 = 0.500 x 0.75 = 0.375

Averaging the percentages = 0.604 OWP (it is an easier schedule, YAY!)

[KnightSlappy]

Five ranked teams most hurt by the SOS calculation method (NCAA/correct):
1.   Wesley (.519/.552) -0.043
2.   Brockport State (.547/.574) -.027
3.   Amherst (.588/.606) -0.022
4.   Emory (.603/.621) -.018
5.   Middlebury (.562/.579) -0.017

One standard deviation of difference between the NCAA's way and the correct way is 0.0166. So 95% of schools will have an actual SOS within 0.033 or below the reported number. So we can be reasonably confident (95%, basically) that when an SOS shows up on the NCAA's data sheets as 0.500, that it really is between 0.467 and 0.533.

[KnightSlappy]

For the more casual observer

how are conference tourney losses figured...  Carthage will end up with 1 more loss if they do not win the conference tourney.  Do they have any shot of a pool C with this many losses still... It seems like 6 or 7 was a max in the past

By definition, Pool C teams will all lose one more game.  Their standing within the Pool C pool is affected more by upsets in the AQ ranks.  Root for the top seeds.

Not necessarily. The UAA doesn't have a tournament, and the SAA champion could end up in Pool C. But in general, yes. Figure on a loss for 90%+ of the Pool C candidates.

[bopol]

The new data sheets are live on NCAA.com

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3

Looks like vRRO is based on last week's rankings.

Dumb question, but is anyone else getting the 2013 rankings when they click on the link?

[magicman]

The new data sheets are live on NCAA.com

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3

Looks like vRRO is based on last week's rankings.

Dumb question, but is anyone else getting the 2013 rankings when they click on the link?

Not a dumb question bopol, as I was going to ask KnightSlappy the same thing. I'm also getting the 2013 numbers instead of this year's.  Help us out here KS. Where's the link to this year's numbers?

[Flying Dutch Fan]

The new data sheets are live on NCAA.com

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3

Looks like vRRO is based on last week's rankings.

Dumb question, but is anyone else getting the 2013 rankings when they click on the link?

Not a dumb question bopol, as I was going to ask KnightSlappy the same thing. I'm also getting the 2013 numbers instead of this year's.  Help us out here KS. Where's the link to this year's numbers?

I get the current numbers, and I'm clicking the link quoted above.  Maybe you guys need to clear your browser history (might be loading something cached)?

[KnightSlappy]

The new data sheets are live on NCAA.com

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3

Looks like vRRO is based on last week's rankings.

Dumb question, but is anyone else getting the 2013 rankings when they click on the link?

Not a dumb question bopol, as I was going to ask KnightSlappy the same thing. I'm also getting the 2013 numbers instead of this year's.  Help us out here KS. Where's the link to this year's numbers?

The rankings show up correctly, but the linked data sheets are from last year.

I'm not sure why, but these last two weeks they've removed the data sheets from the rankings page the next day. I saved copies to my computer yesterday.   

[magicman]

The new data sheets are live on NCAA.com

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3

Looks like vRRO is based on last week's rankings.

Dumb question, but is anyone else getting the 2013 rankings when they click on the link?

Not a dumb question bopol, as I was going to ask KnightSlappy the same thing. I'm also getting the 2013 numbers instead of this year's.  Help us out here KS. Where's the link to this year's numbers?

The rankings show up correctly, but the linked data sheets are from last year.

I'm not sure why, but these last two weeks they've removed the data sheets from the rankings page the next day. I saved copies to my computer yesterday.   

Thanks KS,

That's correct. I'm getting the current regional rankings off the link you posted which I already had in my favorites file. When you mentioned the vRRO I then used the link you provided to look at that. That's when I discovered that the PDF files at the bottom of the rankings that bring up the data sheets are bringing up last year's. So you are also getting the same thing now, but yesterday they had this year's data sheet's that have magically disappeared and turned into last year's. Is that correct?

[AO]

Maybe I missed something in this thread, but why wasn't the multiplier calculation fixed?

[bopol]

The new data sheets are live on NCAA.com

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3

Looks like vRRO is based on last week's rankings.

Dumb question, but is anyone else getting the 2013 rankings when they click on the link?

Not a dumb question bopol, as I was going to ask KnightSlappy the same thing. I'm also getting the 2013 numbers instead of this year's.  Help us out here KS. Where's the link to this year's numbers?

The rankings show up correctly, but the linked data sheets are from last year.

I'm not sure why, but these last two weeks they've removed the data sheets from the rankings page the next day. I saved copies to my computer yesterday.   

Thanks.   I don't suppose you could post them here (or maybe feed them to D3hoops so they can post them.

[Greek Tragedy]

I click on the PDF links and come up with current stuff, I think.

http://web1.ncaa.org/champsel_new/exec/pdf/staticpdfrank

"Generated 02/17/2014 11:15 AM"


EDIT:

When I click on the link from my post, it's blank, but if I go to

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3

and then click on the PDF links at the bottom it works for me.

[Greek Tragedy]

GREEN is conference leader/winner/#1 seed

REG	#1	#2	TEAM-RECORD	REC	CON	SCHEDULE
MW	1	1	Washington U.	20-2, 20-2	UAA	vs Case Western Reserve 2/21, vs Carnegie Mellon 2/23
MW	2	2	Illinois Wesleyan	20-3, 20-3	CCIW	WON vs North Park 107-61, at Wheaton (IL) 2/22
MW	3	3	Wheaton (Ill.)	17-7, 17-7	CCIW	vs Illinois Wesleyan 2/22
MW	4	4	Augustana	18-6, 18-6	CCIW	at North Park 2/22
MW	5	5	St. Norbert	19-1, 20-1	MWC	WON at Ripon 78-62, vs Illinois College 2/22
MW	6	6	Carthage	14-8, 15-9	CCIW	vs Millikin 2/22
MW	7	7	Rose-Hulman	19-4, 19-4	HCAC	WON at Franklin 71-69, at Mount St. Joseph 2/22
MW	8	8	MSOE	20-4, 20-4	NACC	WON vs Wisconsin Lutheran 84-70, vs Edgewood

Marian actually won the NACC. They were 17-3 and 19-6 overall. So MSOE should still be in my Pool C only table.