Pool C

[magicman]

I click on the PDF links and come up with current stuff, I think.

http://web1.ncaa.org/champsel_new/exec/pdf/staticpdfrank

"Generated 02/17/2014 11:15 AM"


EDIT:

When I click on the link from my post, it's blank, but if I go to

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3

and then click on the PDF links at the bottom it works for me.

Well, you now get the correct data sheets because after I posted to KnightSlappy at 3:35, I sent the NCAA website an email telling them about the problem they had and that 2013 was showing instead of 2014. A short while later they corrected the problem. So you're welcome!

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

To answer the question as to why the "math" has not been "fixed"... the men's committee has asked for the change, but the overall championships committee isn't budging. "We" are working at providing hard proof of the problem for the men's committee to make the argument again.

[bopol]

I click on the PDF links and come up with current stuff, I think.

http://web1.ncaa.org/champsel_new/exec/pdf/staticpdfrank

"Generated 02/17/2014 11:15 AM"


EDIT:

When I click on the link from my post, it's blank, but if I go to

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3

and then click on the PDF links at the bottom it works for me.

Well, you now get the correct data sheets because after I posted to KnightSlappy at 3:35, I sent the NCAA website an email telling them about the problem they had and that 2013 was showing instead of 2014. A short while later they corrected the problem. So you're welcome!

Thank you.

[sac]

Five ranked teams benefiting the most from the NCAA's SOS calculation method (NCAA/'Correct'):
1.   NYU – (.551/.498) +.051
2.   Guilford – (.541/.499) +.041
3.   Scranton – (.549/.512) +.037
4.   Dubuque – (.509/.481) +.027
5.   Whitworth – (.521/.494) + .027

Those are a little alarming.  I need a refresher on what's incorrect about it.

Short answer: everything.

Long answer: they seem to be adding the multiplier to the adjusted win and loss totals, and then summing these for all opponents to come up with weighted OWP and OOWP figures. Example:

Neutral vs. Opponent A: 10-2 x 1.0 = 10-2
Neutral vs. Opponent B: 5-5 x 1.0 = 5-5

Sums to a weighted record of 15-7 = 0.682 OWP

(Switch Opponent B to a home game. Should be an 'easier' schedule, right?)

Neutral vs. Opponent A: 10-2 x 1.0 = 10-2
Home vs. Opponent B: 5-5 x 0.75 = 3.75-3.75[/li][/list]

Sums to a weighted record of 13.75-5.75= 0.705 OWP (HARDER SCHEDULE!)

The correct way to do this is to apply the multiplier to the percentages:

Neutral vs. Opponent A: 10-2 = 0.833 x 1.0 = 0.833
Neutral vs. Opponent B: 5-5 = 0.500 x 1.0 = 0.500

Averaging the percentages = 0.667 OWP

(Switch Opponent B to a home game. Should be an 'easier' schedule, right?)

Neutral vs. Opponent A: 10-2 = 0.833 x 1.0 = 0.833
Home vs. Opponent B: 5-5 = 0.500 x 0.75 = 0.375

Averaging the percentages = 0.604 OWP (it is an easier schedule, YAY!)

That math works for a soccer record like 4-4-2 and 6-2-2 in your first example.  I still wouldn't do it that way but if nothing else we can blame soccer and hockey.

[AO]

To answer the question as to why the "math" has not been "fixed"... the men's committee has asked for the change, but the overall championships committee isn't budging. "We" are working at providing hard proof of the problem for the men's committee to make the argument again.

How did that conversation between the committees go?
Men's committee: "When we apply the multiplier to teams we often end up with the opposite of the desired effect."
Championships committee: "....................what?  Call me next year if it's still broken."

[KnightSlappy]

To answer the question as to why the "math" has not been "fixed"... the men's committee has asked for the change, but the overall championships committee isn't budging. "We" are working at providing hard proof of the problem for the men's committee to make the argument again.

How did that conversation between the committees go?
Men's committee: "When we apply the multiplier to teams we often end up with the opposite of the desired effect."
Championships committee: "....................what?  Call me next year if it's still broken."

"Did you try turning the power off then back on?"

Yes.

"Hmmm. Let me put you on hold for a minute"

Ok.

[dial tone]

[AO]

Quick Quiz:
Which team has the better SOS?
Team A:
Road vs. 20-0
Road vs. 10-17
Road vs  7-20

Team B:
Road vs. 17-5
Home vs. 10-17
Home vs. 7-20

[bopol]

Well, I think we now have 4 teams that will have travel problems (500 mile rule) as Emory just knocked off NYU and is looking real good for a Pool C spot.  I also think that NYU is DOA as they drop to 15-8 and 0-5 vs RRO.

[KnightSlappy]

Well, I think we now have 4 teams that will have travel problems (500 mile rule) as Emory just knocked off NYU and is looking real good for a Pool C spot.  I also think that NYU is DOA as they drop to 15-8 and 0-5 vs RRO.

Emory making the field would just about guarantee that Centre hosts a pod. I think they can get there in 500 miles.

[monsoon]

Emory making the field would just about guarantee that Centre hosts a pod. I think they can get there in 500 miles.

Yes, Emory to Centre is under 500 miles.

[bopol]

Yep, I think you guys are right.  Centre will end up with a bracket with Emory playing in it.  I put together a bracket in the last few days and put in Maryville and Ohio Wesleyan as well. 

Here were my Pool C picks:

   UW-Whitewater    
   Williams    
   Babson    
   Plattsburgh State     
   Emory    
   Geneseo State    
   Wheaton (Ill.)    
   Augustana    
   Bowdoin    
   St. Olaf    
   Ohio Wesleyan     
   Virginia Wesleyan    
   William Paterson    
   Mary Washington    
   Stevenson 
  Springfield    
   Dubuque    
   Carthage    
   Marietta     
  

The last few picks were really dicey.  Springfield is just 1-4 vs. RRO.  Dubuque is falling apart (3 straight losses in a weak conference), Carthage has 8 losses, Marietta is just 0-4 vs. RRO.  Stevenson is looking pretty good to me at the moment even though they just entered the regional rankings.

The thing is the next 5 teams I had all just lost (Guilford, Rutgers-Newark, Oglethorpe, NYU and Rhode Island), so I can't see them getting picked.  The teams that could move up have bigger flaws than the bottom of the Pool C (Middlebury is like Carthage without the big wins, MSOE is already behind Carthage is the MW regional rankings, Wittenburg is behind Marietta in the GL, Alveria has 7 losses without a particularly great schedule). 

The oddballs are Colorado College and Pomona-Pitzer.  Both have a big win and not a lot of losses in D3, but play in relatively weak conferences. 

In Colorado College, given the lack of a dominant team in the conference, I can't see how they'll get Pool C, as they really have an easier path to Pool A than most other Pool C candidates (i.e., if Marietta loses to a good Mount Union team, that's a loss to an RRO).  The best they could end up with in D3 is 16-6 with 5 losses to teams outside of the RRO.

In Pomona-Pitzer, at least CMS is in the same conference and they have the St. Thomas win, but their SSO is pretty weak and they would have 6 D3 losses.

I'd be interested in thoughts on this.

[bopol]

I looked at 4 of the 8 regions and here are some thoughts FWIW:

Atlantic:

Rutgers Newark (#3) lost a game this week and slipped into a second place tie in the NJAC with William Patterson (#4).   I wouldn't be surprised to see a reversal in the rankings this week, but the key here is the semifinal tournament game this Wednesday at William Patterson.  The winner will probably end up ahead of the loser in the final regional rankings and would be in great shape for a Pool C.  The loser would be on the bubble.

East:

In the SUNYAC, Brockport (#1) and Geneseo (#3) took loses this week, while Plattsburgh (#2) kept winning, though I don't see anything particularly disrupting the rankings, nor the fact that all three teams should be in the tournament. 

NYU (#6) lost to Emory and now has 8 D3 losses.  With no RRO wins, I can't see how they are in contention for a Pool C bid and I think they could end up displaced by Skidmore, which would hurt Emory in the South, but I don't see Skidmore as a strong Pool C candidate either.

Stevens (#5) took a loss and also might get displaced with now 8 D3 losses, but the other E8 teams with 7 losses (Nazareth and Alfred (6 D3 losses)) aren't impressive.  I see the Empire 8 as a one-bid league.

Great Lakes:

OWU (#3) lost to DePauw, but they are in otherwise good shape and I don't think it hurts their chances at Pool C (which are quite good).

Mount Union (#5) beat Marietta (#6) but lost to a good, but unranked Wilmington.  Wittenburg (#7) could move up ahead of Marietta and possibly DePauw could displace them completely.  Wittenburg is certainly looking better for Pool C and I'll be watching this region in anticipation as things are just odd enough that order will matter greatly.

Middle Atlantic:

Dickinson (#4) lost a game this week, but I expect the impact to be minimal.

The action is in the MACC.  Messiah (#5) lost to Alvernia (#7).  Hood (#9) also lost to Alvernia.  Stevenson (#6) kept winning.  So, the end result is that Messiah, Alvernia and Stevenson all finished the regular season 13-5 tied for first.  These teams all have promising Pool C chances, as well as Hood hanging in there as a RRO. 

Let's tackle one at a time:

Messiah is 19-5 in D3, split with Hood, Alvernia and dropped both games to Stevenson.  They also have a win at Guilford (#6 in the South), so they are likely either 2-3 or 3-4 against RRO (depending on Hood's status).

Alvernia is 18-7 in D3, split with Messiah and Stevenson and beat Hood twice.   They also lost to Middlebury and Dickinson, so they are either 2-4 or 4-4 against RRO (depending on Hood's status.

Stevenson is 18-7 in D3, split with Alveria and Hood and beat Messiah twice.  They also have wins vs. Middlebury (#11 in Northeast) and a loss to Oglethorpe (#7 in South).  So their RRO could be many things, at least 3-1 and possibly 3-2, 4-1, 4-2, 4-3, 5-2 and 5-3.  This will make a big difference.

My guess is that Hood drops out of the regional rankings in favor of Christopher Newport (with 8 losses, a poor Pool C candidate) and then the order will remain the same as Alvernia's very good week gets hurt by losing the two Hood RRO wins.
Alvernia plays Messiah in the semifinals of the MACC on Wednesday, so that's huge.  Stevenson gets the easier path, playing Hood/Albright, but I think has little room for error and must make the MACC finals to keep their Pool C hopes alive.

[sac]

Great Lakes:

OWU (#3) lost to DePauw, but they are in otherwise good shape and I don't think it hurts their chances at Pool C (which are quite good).

Mount Union (#5) beat Marietta (#6) but lost to a good, but unranked Wilmington.  Wittenburg (#7) could move up ahead of Marietta and possibly DePauw could displace them completely.  Wittenburg is certainly looking better for Pool C and I'll be watching this region in anticipation as things are just odd enough that order will matter greatly.

I suspect we'll see DePauw in this weeks rankings over Wittenberg.  DePauw has two convincing head-to-head wins and the one thing Witt had over DePauw going into this last poll was Witt's two wins over OWU.  DePauw now has a win over OWU, 2 over Witt and a win over Wooster.

It's really close, SOS numbers are last weeks
DePauw     .708/.535/4-4......including Witt
Wittenberg   .760/.524/2-3

[bopol]

Great Lakes:

OWU (#3) lost to DePauw, but they are in otherwise good shape and I don't think it hurts their chances at Pool C (which are quite good).

Mount Union (#5) beat Marietta (#6) but lost to a good, but unranked Wilmington.  Wittenburg (#7) could move up ahead of Marietta and possibly DePauw could displace them completely.  Wittenburg is certainly looking better for Pool C and I'll be watching this region in anticipation as things are just odd enough that order will matter greatly.

I suspect we'll see DePauw in this weeks rankings over Wittenberg.  DePauw has two convincing head-to-head wins and the one thing Witt had over DePauw going into this last poll was Witt's two wins over OWU.  DePauw now has a win over OWU, 2 over Witt and a win over Wooster.

It's really close, SOS numbers are last weeks
DePauw     .708/.535/4-4......including Witt
Wittenberg   .760/.524/2-3

Yes, another conference heading towards a 2/3 showdown that'll probably determine order in regional rankings and could dictate a Pool C chance.  That'll be a great game.

[David Collinge]

Yes, another conference heading towards a 2/3 showdown that'll probably determine order in regional rankings and could dictate a Pool C chance.  That'll be a great game.

Let's not count these chickens quite yet. OWU, Wittenberg, and (especially) DePauw have very tough quarterfinal games on Tuesday. I will be very surprised if all three advance to the weekend, and those who do not advance will be in grave Pool C danger.