Pool C

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Emory isn't going to host because of where they are... there really is only one or two teams that can get to them that will be or has an outside chance of being in the tournament (Centre and Guilford). I expect Centre would host because you can get a lot of teams to Danville, KY especially Emory.

[Titan Q]

My updated take on Pool C as of Monday, 2/24...

* Records and SOS are per Knightslappy's data (should be current)
* RRO is only through the last NCAA data sheet (games of Sun 2/16)
* Regional ranking noted is from the 2/19 rankings

The most "bubble proof" current conference leaders
--Tier 1 - would be Pool C locks:
1. Amherst (NESCAC) - .917/.580/8-0   Northeast #1
2. UW-Stevens Point (WIAC) - .960/.579/5-1    West #1
3. Illinois Wesleyan (CCIW) - .880/.554/6-2   Midwest #2
4. Wooster (NCAC) - .913/.534/5-1   Great Lakes #1
5. Brockport State (SUNYAC) - .875/.542/3-2   East #1
6. SUNY-Purchase (SKY) - .920/.506/4-1   Atlantic #1
7. Scranton (Land) - .880/.544/2-1   Mid-Atlantic #1
8. Cabrini (CSAC) - .958/.505/2-0   Mid-Atlantic #2
9. Wesley (CAC) - .909/.520/3-0   Mid-Atlantic #3
10. St. Thomas (MIAC) - .840/.527/4-2   West #3
11. Richard Stockton (NJAC) - .840/.528/3-2   Atlantic #2
12. Eastern Connecticut (LEC) - .800/.544/3-3   Northeast #4

--Tier 2 - would be strong Pool C candidates, but not quite locks:
13. Randolph-Macon (ODAC) - .708/.596/2-4   South #1
14. Hope (MIAA) - .783/.544/2-4   Great Lakes #2 
15. WPI (NEWMAC) - .880/.517/3-1  Northeast #5
16. St. Norbert (MWC) - .955/.510/0-1   Midwest #5

--Tier 3 - would be no better than the end of the Pool C bubble
17. Mount Union (OAC) - .880/.510/2-1   Great Lakes #5
18. Texas-Dallas (ASC) - .880/.494/1-1   South #4
19. Dickinson (CC) - .800/.522/2-1   Mid-Atlantic #4
20. Whitworth (NWC) - .800/.524/0-3  West #6
21. Bethany (PrAC) - .833/.504/1-0   Great Lakes #4
22. Staten Island (CUNYAC) - .923/.477/0-0   Atlantic #5
23. Rose-Hulman (HCAC) - .800/.513/0-1   Midwest #7

Strongest current Pool C candidates (teams not leading their conference)
--Tier 1- The strongest resumes - virtual locks:
1. UW-Whitewater (WIAC) - .880/.563/4-1   West #2
2. Williams (NESCAC) - .875/.549/4-2   Northeast #2
3. Babson (NEWMAC) - .800/.563/3-4   Northeast #3
4. Plattsburgh State (SUNYAC) - .840/.534/3-3   East #2
5. Wheaton (CCIW) - .680/.592/5-5   Midwest #3
6. Augustana (CCIW) - .760/.551/4-3   Midwest #4
7. Geneseo State (SUNYAC) - .792/.545/2-3   East #3
8. Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC) - .750/.545/3-2   South #2
9. Messiah (MACC) - .792/.527/3-4   Mid-Atlantic #5

--Tier 2 - very much in the mix, but not locks:
10. Carthage (CCIW) - .652/.590/4-6   Midwest #6
11. Emory (UAA) - .708/.596/2-4  South #3
12. Rutgers-Newark (NJAC) - .731/.523/3-2   Atlantic #3
13. William Paterson (NJAC) - .800/.511/2-2   Atlantic #4
14. Ohio Wesleyan (NCAC) - .760/.528/2-3   Great Lakes #3
15. Birmingham-Southern - .640/.555/6-3   South, not ranked ?
16. Middlebury (NESCAC) - .667/.555/2-4   Northeast #11

--Tier 3 - the very end of the bubble, hoping for almost no upsets:
17. St. Olaf (MIAC) - .800/.538/1-5   West #4
18. Bowdoin (NESCAC) - .792/.530/1-3   Northeast #6
19. Springfield (NEWMAC) - .750/.556/1-4   Northeast #7
20. Guilford (ODAC) - .680/.535/1-5   South #6
----------
21. Mary Washington (CAC) - .783/.529/1-2   Mid-Atlantic #7
22. St. Mary's (CAC) - .682/.557/1-5   Mid-Atlantic, not ranked
23. Dubuque (IIAC) - .818/.513/1-0   West #5
24. Rhode Island (LEC) - .680/.548/0-3   Northeast #9
25. Marietta (OAC) - .750/.534/0-4   Great Lakes #6
26. NYU (UAA) - .667/.548/0-5   East #6
27. Oglethorpe (SAA) - .739/.502/2-2   South #7

[Greek Tragedy]

Very nice. I always like this kind of stuff!

+1

[warriorcat]

But doesn't Emory fly to most away games anyway? Seems so silly that that would be a deciding factor. But maybe that's really how the NCAA does it. How have they dealt with Emory in years past? What about SoCal and Washington schools?

The difference is in the tournament the flight is an NCAA expense, and is not the schools expense like UAA travel.  While it might seem silly to you and I the NCAA is very concerned with keeping travel cost down as indicated by the under 500 limit is a road trip.  Regarding some of the schools you mentioned, it isn't that the NCAA won't fly teams it is more they keep the flights to a bare minimum.  Yes that at times may result in some interesting matchups.  Geography definitely plays a part in hosting a pod in some circumstances.

I was on an NCAA Division 1 Committee in another sport in the late 90's and early 00's, and the directive to the Selection Committee from the National Championship group in Indianapolis was to come up with a bracket that had the fewest number of flights.  Not once in four years did the NCAA Championship group allow us any leeway with this even if it meant having some of the strongest teams playing each other in thr first weekend.  They were extremely conscious of costs.  Flights after the first weekend, i.e. Sweet Sixteen round, were where the money was spent for travel.

[KnightSlappy]

15. Birmingham-Southern - .640/.555/6-3   South, not ranked ?
17. St. Olaf (MIAC) - .800/.538/1-5   West #4

You seem to be placing a lot of weight on the vRRO component, but I also recognize that you're better at guessing the rankings/selections than I am. Have we seen them take this extreme of an action based on vRRO in the past?

[sac]

This was Q's projected list from a year ago.  Randolph was the only Pool C selection not on his board.  I think it was generally assumed their high number of RRO's (all in conference) is what lifted them into the tournament.   

Projected left at the table after round 19 (in order of competitiveness)
(MA) Albright (MACC) - 20-6 (.769)/.546/3-1
(GL) Thomas More (PrAC) - 22-4 (.846)/.512/1-3
(AT) Rutgers-Newark (NJAC) - 19-7 (.731)/.548/3-4
(MW) Augustana (CCIW) - 18-8 (.692)/.553/2-8
(W) Buena Vista (IIAC) - 18-7 (.720)/.563/1-2
(NE) Tufts (NESCAC) - 16-6 (.727)/.535/0-6
(S) Texas-Dallas (ASC) - 20-7 (.741)/.516/0-4
(E) Oswego St (SUNYAC) - 19-8 (.704)/.518/2-6


(S) Randolph (ODAC) - 15-6 (.714)/.520/4-5 (I have added 1-1 for Randolph-Macon) 

[HOPEful]

So if RPI is close to the formula used to determine hosting wouldn't the host teams be pretty close the following:

Amherst
Williams
Babson

Brockport State

Scranton
Cabrini
Wesley

Emory
Randolph-Macon

Wooster

Wash U
Illinois Wesleyan
St Norbert
Wheaton (Ill)

UWSP
UWW

Would this 16 make sense? Could there be 3 NE, and 4 MW and 0 Atlantic hosts? Will they really try to get #1-16 in the country by their criteria to host 1st and 2nd rounds?
For example in the NE, what teams do you think will actually end up hosting?"

Seems to me the Hope, the # 2 team in the GL would have an arguement for hosting over Wheaton, the #4 team from the MW, despite having lost to them. Plus, Hope's facilities are nicer.

Could Stevens Point and Whitewater both get BYEs?


edit, fixed format

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

They won't... first because usually the byes are used for geographical challenges like in Texas and the West Coast.

Second, because usually they spread those around and having two teams from the same region getting byes would be a bit wacky.

That all being said, it also depends on what teams make the tournament and what brackets the committee is trying to put together. If they were to put UWSP and UWW in opposite sections and can find the right teams to play on Thursday... then it could happen. However, the odds of winning the lottery could be about the same I think this year.

[KnightSlappy]

So if RPI is close to the formula used to determine hosting wouldn't the host teams be pretty close the following:

Amherst
Williams
Babson

Brockport State

Scranton
Cabrini
Wesley

Emory
Randolph-Macon

Wooster

Wash U
Illinois Wesleyan
St Norbert
Wheaton (Ill)

UWSP
UWW

Would this 16 make sense? Could there be 3 NE, and 4 MW and 0 Atlantic hosts? Will they really try to get #1-16 in the country by their criteria to host 1st and 2nd rounds?
For example in the NE, what teams do you think will actually end up hosting?"

Seems to me the Hope, the # 2 team in the GL would have an arguement for hosting over Wheaton, the #4 team from the MW, despite having lost to them. Plus, Hope's facilities are nicer.

Could Stevens Point and Whitewater both get BYEs?

I don't think ordinal rank really matters when comparing across regions. Like you say, Wheaton beat Hope head-to-head, and that could count for a great deal. And quality of facilities don't really matter (I don't believe) as long as they meet the minimum seating requirement.

When it comes down to it, though, I think neither Hope nor Wheaton end up hosting.

UWSP and UWW could indeed both end up with byes, but I think we'll either see UWSP and Amherst get the byes, or one of the byes go to help out with geography.

[sac]

Without upsets the GL, MW, West regions are looking at about 22 teams in the tournament, that requires 6 hosting pods of either 3 or 4 teams.

My thoughts haven't changed much on this:

Locks to host
Stevens Point
Illinois Wesleyan
Washington
Wooster

Nearly lock to host
Centre, both because of geography and merit


One of these will likely draw the last pod.
St. Thomas
Whitewater
Hope
St. Norbert
Mt. Union/Marietta

Its possible we get a seventh, that requires pulling teams in from NY/PA/VA into Eastern Ohio(Wooster or Mt.Union/Marietta) or enough South Region teams end up at Centre that it doesn't affect the quantity of GL/MW/W schools needing a place to play.

The Centre Regional could be  Centre/Emory/ ASC winner/SCAC winner.  That wouldn't affect the number of teams needed to host the GL/MW/W regions.

[KnightSlappy]

One of these will likely draw the last pod.
St. Thomas
Whitewater
Hope
St. Norbert
Mt. Union/Marietta

Whitewater
--
St. Norbert
Wheaton
--
Hope
St. Thomas
--
OAC Winner

[NEHoopsFan99]

How about the east and northeast?

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Just to through it out there... we could see both byes help geography this year... Colorado College is the key this year...

[Greek Tragedy]

Teams in GREEN are #1 seeds/reg. season conference winners/Pool A leaders etc.

Teams in RED are Pool C contenders with their season complete

REG	#1	#2	#3	TEAM	REC	CON	SCHEDULE
ATL	1	1	1	SUNY-Purchase	23-2, 23-2	SKY	vs SUNY-Old Westbury in semifinal 2/27
ATL	2	2	2	Richard Stockton	21-4, 21-4	NJAC	WON vs Kean 64-63; vs William Paterson in Final 3/1
ATL	5	5	3	Staten Island	24-2, 24-2	CUNYAC	WON vs Hunter 92-74; vs York (N.Y.) in Final 2/28
ATL	4	4	4	William Paterson	20-5, 20-5	NJAC	WON vs Rutgers-Newark 75-66; vs Richard Stockton in Final 3/1
ATL	3	3	5	Rutgers-Newark	19-7, 19-7	NJAC	LOST at William Paterson 75-66 in semifinal
ATL	6	6	6	Mt. St. Mary (N.Y.)	20-5, 20-5	SKY	vs Farmingdale State in semifinal 2/27
REG	#1	#2	#3	TEAM	REC	CON	SCHEDULE
EAST	1	1	1	Brockport State	21-3, 22-3	SUNYAC	vs Oswego in semifinal 2/28
EAST	3	2	2	Plattsburgh State	21-4, 21-4	SUNYAC	vs Geneseo in semifinal 2/28
EAST	2	3	3	Geneseo State	19-5, 19-5	SUNYAC	WON vs Oneonta State 79-67; vs Plattsburgh St. in semifinal 2/28
EAST	5	4	4	Hobart	19-6, 19-6	LL	WON vs Clarkson 78-69 OT; vs Vassar in Final 3/1
EAST	4	6	5	NYU	16-8, 16-8	UAA	at Brandeis 3/2
			6	Skidmore	16-9, 16-9	LL	LOST to Vassar 66-62 in LL semifinal COMPLETE
				DROPPING OUT
EAST	6	5		Stevens		E8
REG	#1	#2	#3	TEAM	REC	CON	SCHEDULE
GL	1	1	1	Wooster	21-2, 22-3	NCAC	WON vs. Oberlin 89-56; vs Ohio Wesleyan in semifinal 2/28
GL	6	2	2	Hope	18-5, 19-6	MIAA	WON vs Trine 65-62 OT; vs Calvin in Final 3/1
GL	7	4	3	Bethany	20-4, 21-4	PAC	LOST vs Geneva 61-59 in quarterfinals
GL	3	5	4	Mount Union	20-5, 20-5	OAC	vs John Carroll in semifinal 2/27
			5	DePauw	17-7, 18-7	NCAC	WON vs Wabash 73-59; vs Wittenberg in semifinal 2/28
GL	5	7	6	Wittenberg	19-6, 19-6	NCAC	WON vs Denison 64-49; vs DePauw in semifinal 2/28
GL	2	3	7	Ohio Wesleyan	19-6, 19-6	NCAC	WON vs Kenyon i78-67; vs Wooster in semifinal 2/28
				DROPPING OUT
GL	4	6		Marietta		OAC
REG	#1	#2	#3	TEAM	REC	CON	SCHEDULE
MATL	1	2	1	Cabrini	23-1, 23-1	CSAC	WON vs Rosemont 109-97; vs Neumann in Final 2/28
MATL	2	1	2	Scranton	22-3, 22-3	LAND	WON vs Merchant Marine 82-64; vs Susquechanna in Final 3/1
MATL	3	3	3	Wesley	20-2, 22-2	CAC	vs Christopher Newport in semifinal 2/27
MATL	6	4	4	Dickinson	20-5, 20-5	CC	vs McDaniel in semifinal 2/28
	n/a	6	5	Stevenson	18-7, 18-7	MACC	WON vs Hood 83-72; vs Alvernia in Final 3/1
MATL	4	5	6	Messiah	19-5, 19-5	MACC	LOST vs Alvernia 81-77 in MACC semifinal COMPLETE
MATL	7	8	7	Alvernia	18-7, 18-7	MACC	WON vs Messiah 81-77; vs Stevenson in Final 3/1
MATL	5	7	8	Mary Washington	18-5, 20-5	CAC	vs St. Mary's (Md.) in semifinal 2/27
			9	St. Mary's (Md.)	15-7, 18-7	CAC	vs Mary Washington in semifinal 2/27
				DROPPING OUT
MATL	8	9		Hood		MACC
MATL	9			McDaniel		CC
REG	#1	#2	#3	TEAM	REC	CON	SCHEDULE
MW	1	1	1	Washington U.	22-2, 22-2	UAA	at Chicago 3/1
MW	2	2	2	Illinois Wesleyan	22-3, 22-3	CCIW	vs Carthage in semifinal 2/28
MW	3	3	3	Wheaton (Ill.)	17-8, 17-8	CCIW	vs Augustana in semifinal 2/28
MW	4	4	4	Augustana	19-6, 19-6	CCIW	vs Wheaton (IL) in semifinal 2/28
MW	5	5	5	St. Norbert	21-1, 22-1	MWC	vs Carroll in semifinal 2/28
MW	6	6	6	Carthage	15-8, 16-9	CCIW	at Illinois Wesleyan in semifinal 2/28
MW	7	7	7	Rose-Hulman	20-5, 20-5	HCAC	vs TBD in HCAC semifinal 2/28
			8	Chicago	14-9, 15-9	UAA
				DROPPING OUT
MW	8	8		MSOE		NACC	SEASON COMPLETE
REG	#1	#2	#3	TEAM	REC	CON	SCHEDULE
NE	1	1	1	Amherst	22-3, 22-3	NESCAC	vs Trinity (CT) in semifinal 3/1
NE	2	2	2	Williams	21-3, 22-3	NESCAC	vs Middlebury in semifinal 3/1
NE	4	3	3	Babson	20-5, 20-5	NEWMAC	vs Springfield in semifinal 3/1
NE	5	4	4	Eastern Connecticut	20-5, 20-5	LEC	WON vs Mass-Boston 61-55; vs Western Connecticut in semifinal 2/28
NE	6	5	5	WPI	22-3, 22-3	NEWMAC	vs MIT in semifinal 3/1
NE	7	7	6	Springfield	18-6, 19-6	NEWMAC	vs Babson in semifinal 3/1
NE	3	6	7	Bowdoin	19-5, 19-5	NESCAC	LOST to Trinity (Conn.) 71-67 3OT in semifinal COMPLETE
NE	8	8	8	Albertus Magnus	23-1, 23-2	GNAC	WON vs Norwich 87-69; vs Lasell in semifinal 2/27
NE	10	10	9	Nichols	20-5, 20-5	CCC	WON vs Western New England 73-54; vs Salva Regina in semifinal 2/27
NE	9	9	10	Rhode Island College	17-8, 17-8	LEC	WON vs Southern Maine 74-66; vs Mass-Dartmouth in semifinal 2/28
NE	11	11	11	Middlebury	16-8, 17-8	NESCAC	vs Williams in semifinal 3/1
REG	#1	#2	#3	TEAM	REC	CON	SCHEDULE
SOUTH	1	1	1	Randolph-Macon	20-5, 20-5	ODAC	vs Hampden-Sydney in quarterfinal 2/28
SOUTH	6	3	2	Emory	17-7, 17-7	UAA	at Rochester 3/1
SOUTH	3	2	3	Virgina Wesleyan	18-6, 19-6	ODAC	vs Bridgewater in quarterfinal 2/28
SOUTH	2	4	4	Texas-Dallas	22-3, 22-3	ASC	vs East Texas Baptist in quarterfinal 2/28
SOUTH	4	5	5	Centre	17-3, 20-4	SAA	vs Berry in quarterfinal 2/28
			6	Birmingham-Southern	16-9, 16-9	SAA	vs Hendrix in quarterfinal 2/28
SOUTH	5	6	7	Guilford	17-8, 17-8	ODAC	vs Washington and Lee in quarterfinal 2/28
			8	Trinity (TX)	16-9, 16-9	SCAC	vs Texas Lutheran in quarterfinal 2/28
				DROPPING OUT
SOUTH	7	7		Oglethorpe		SAA
SOUTH	n/a	8		Hardin-Simmons		ASC
SOUTH	8	n/a		Concordia (Texas)		ASC
REG	#1	#2	#3	TEAM	REC	CON	SCHEDULE
WEST	1	1	1	UW-Stevens Point	24-1, 24-1	WIAC	vs Platteville in semifinal 2/28
WEST	2	2	2	UW-Whitewater	22-3, 22-3	WIAC	vs La Crosse in semifinal 2/28
WEST	3	3	3	St. Thomas	21-4, 21-4	MIAC	vs Bethel in semifinal 2/28
WEST	5	4	4	St. Olaf	20-5, 20-5	MIAC	vs Gustavus Adolphus in semifinal 2/28
WEST	6	6	5	Whitworth	20-5, 20-5	NWC	vs Lewis and Clark in semifinal 2/27
WEST	4	5	6	Dubuque	18-4, 21-4	IIAC	vs Luther in semifinal 2/27
WEST	9	n/a	7	C-M-S	17-3, 19-5	SCIAC	vs Cal Lutheran in semifinal 2/28
WEST	7	7	8	Pomona-Pitzer	18-5, 18-7	SCIAC	vs Chapman in semifinal 2/28
WEST	n/a	9	9	Augsburg	18-7, 18-7	MIAC	LOST vs Bethel 70-67 in quarterfinal COMPLETE
DROP				DROPPING OUT
WEST	8	8		Colorado College		SCAC

[HOPEful]

Two big games in the CCIW tonight!

What do wins do for Wheaton, Carthage, and Augustana? Are we going to see 4 CCIW teams in the playoffs?