Pool C

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Whoever is ranked higher, WPI or Springfield, will get in behind Babson... the other is going to be a very fragile bubble.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

You also have the least cohesion on the national committee from year to year than we've had for a very long time. Makes it tough to guess how the committee will work this year.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Whoever is ranked higher, WPI or Springfield, will get in behind Babson... the other is going to be a very fragile bubble.

I think MIT's win means Bowdoin's not going to see the table at all.

[sac]

St. Olaf 39 St. Thomas 33

13 minutes left

[CCHoopster]

For the Mid-Atlantic Wesley comes right off the board and then I think Stevenson is at the table next; although Stevenson vs Messiah shows Messiah having better numbers in 2 of 3 here.

Stevenson* (MACC) - .704/.531/4-3   Mid-Atlantic #5
Messiah* (MACC) - .760/.532/2-4   Mid-Atlantic #6

I think Stevenson gets to the table after Wesley (again you could argue about Messiah being ahead of them) and get picked late. Messiah gets to the table ahead of Dickinson and probably finishes sitting at the table leaving Dickinson wondering how they are not dancing at 21-6 and making it to the tournament.  Could be wrong but I think it may be like this.

Stevenson is 2-0 versus Messiah head-to-head... I highly doubt that is ignored and Messiah jumps Stevenson especially since Messiah lost in the semis and Stevenson by a point in the championship.

Dickinson's problem is the conference was weak and didn't give them extra vRRO data.

I don't see the Centennial as a 2 bid conference and do not see Dickinson being ahead of Messiah. If the NCAA feels the MAC Cwealth is as strong as I think it is they can get 3 teams, especially when teams with very low numbers SOS and WIN% are at the table.

[Bengalsrule]

I'm just hoping that the SUNYAC gets 2 pool C bids. They derserve it!

[NEHoopsFan99]

You still think Babson will get in before WPI? It's getting so confusing because essentially the entire NE lost their games this weekend. Could that mean only 2 NE teams get Pool C's? Or do you still think there will be 3+ NE pool C teams

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

SUNYAC has two... probably three amazingly.

[bopol]

In the Mid-Atlantic, I think Stevenson ends up ahead of Messiah and Dickinson and Stevenson has a worse overall resume than Carthage (easily compared).  Similarly, if DePauw ends up ahead of Wittenburg (and Bethany and Mount Union), then they jam up the boards similarly.

I Carthage has a gaudy SOS, but their overall record isn't better than Stevenson's. Furthermore, it depends on who is regionally ranked at the end, because when looking at Stevenson's numbers that is where I had a ton of fluxuation. That all being said, Carthage versus Stevenson was one of those where diving further into the numbers gave me pause as to who would go next. Great cross-country look at things.

Carthage is 15-9 with an SOS of .598
Stevenson is 19-8 with an SOS of .531

That's a pretty big gap in SOS for just one less loss.

Also, between Stevenson, Dickinson and Messiah, who ever is in front with those three gets in. Whoever is second will be chewing on their nails... the third one doesn't get in.

And I agree with the Great Lakes... that could cause a problem if DePauw remains ahead of Wittenberg.

I think Stevenson stays ahead of Messiah, but am really unsure where Dickinson will end up.  I'm really unsure in the Great Lakes, but I think that DePauw/Wittenburg end up behind Hope and ahead of Bethany.

I think Staten Island gets picked at some point because they'll be on the board quite a while and I don't have a problem with that, but let's be clear that they played a soft, soft schedule.

I certainly can't disagree with this logic... their numbers are just so bad. I was imaging the same problem for Purchase had they not won the AQ. In their case, it would have to be for all 19 rounds and that is unreal if it happened!

Record vs. Top 50, Second 50 and everyone else D3 (Massey)

Staten Island (0-0, 3-2, 22-1)
Carthage (4-7, 5-1, 6-1)

I'd take Carthage given a choice.

Considering Massey isn't even used in the criteria... I think it is tough to make decisions and arguments based on that data. However, Carthage would get in over Staten Island I am quite sure.

It's just to give a sense of how weak a schedule Staten Island played and how tough of one Carthage did play.  This is where I don't like the dependence on RRO because there isn't common ground between the two teams to make a comparison, so looking at games against second 50 are a point and I'm surprised D3 doesn't have criteria similar to D1 in that regard. 

BTW, I think Springfield is very fringe.  I've figuring the last 3 picks are coming down to Springfield, Wittenbuerg, Stevenson, DePauw, Dickinson and Messiah with Carthage and Staten Island in and St. Olaf out.  Order will matter in Mid Atlantic and Great Lakes.

Springfield is a blocker for the rest of the Northeast (though, WPI would be the first blocker). Order will matter in this region as much as the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic.

And remember eight teams, one from each region, sit at the table at a time. I doubt Stevenson, Dickinson, and Messiah will all see the table unless the third place team gets there in the final round or two.

And I have St. Olaf in midway through.

I really do think St. Olaf is a fine team, but I can't see them getting in without an RRO win (and I think Augsburg is going off the regional rankings in favor of Lacrosse). 

** can't get quotes right, sorry...

[CCHoopster]

You still think Babson will get in before WPI? It's getting so confusing because essentially the entire NE lost their games this weekend. Could that mean only 2 NE teams get Pool C's? Or do you still think there will be 3+ NE pool C teams

2 bids. I really think the Mid Atlantic gets 3 pool C with Wesley, Stevenson and Messiah or Dickinson. Easily 2 pool C for the MA I think. Could be wrong, just personal guess.

[Pat Coleman]

I'm just hoping that the SUNYAC gets 2 pool C bids. They derserve it!

SUNYAC has two... probably three amazingly.

I suspect you don't really mean four SUNYAC teams will qualify, Dave.

[Hugenerd]

What NEWMAC teams do you think will make the Pool C cut? WPI Springfield and Babson all lost and non-ranked MIT won

Speaking of which, do you think MIT can sneak into the final rankings above Middlebury or Nichols?

Middlebury ended the season 17-9, MIT 20-8, Nichols 22-6.

Last week SOS was a big differentiator, but I think with MIT's road game vs. WPI and their neutral game vs. Springfield, the gap will close to some extent. My guess is that MIT and Nichols will both be at ~0.52 and Middlebury at ~0.56.

MIT will be 4-5 vs. RRO, Middlebury 2-5 (I believe), and Nichols 0-2.

If MIT can jump in, that could help teams like Babson and WPI, maybe even Springfield, as it would add 2-3 results for each of those teams vs. RRO (two wins each for Babson and WPI).

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I'm just hoping that the SUNYAC gets 2 pool C bids. They derserve it!

SUNYAC has two... probably three amazingly.

I suspect you don't really mean four SUNYAC teams will qualify, Dave.

LOL no... I was thinking total bids with the AQ... sorry

[sac]

St. Olaf by 6 with 6 to play

someone's bubble is quivering

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

bopol - per Stevenson/Carthage... I am not ignoring the one-loss difference... and you shouldn't ignore the four-win difference. Stevenson's WP is .704... Carthage is .651. That is what I am talking about.

And I really can't see how Messiah who is 0-2 versus Stevenson, played one more game against a RRO while Stevenson played two this past week, and other data moves them ahead of the Mustangs. You keep saying you don't think Messiah moves ahead... but what data says they do? Stevenson I think has a higher SOS or they are a wash.

And again, I don't see St. Olaf not making the tournament if they don't win the AQ. They have a .539+ SOS and are going to have seven or so games vRRO.