Pool C

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I would be surprised if Stockton wasn't hosting the opening round.  They have been ranked as the top Atlantic team every week and they did win both the regular season and conference tournament.  They have strong stats in each criteria and a good recent history (sweet 16).  Stockton can host many teams from several regions from  their geographical home, IMO!!

Go Ospreys!!

They'll absolutely host.  I don't think the committee is going to cut out an entire region from hosting again (maybe the East).

[KnightSlappy]

My guess at regional ranking changes:

MA
Alvernia in
St. Mary's MD out

NE
Keene St in
Southern Vermont out

SO
Texas Lutheran in
Concordia (Texas) in
Mary Hardin Baylor out
Rhodes out

[Titan Q]

Numbers on my site now fully updated. Great season everybody.

Tremendous work, KnightSlappy!!  All of my data came from your site...what a great resource.

[ronk]

My best shot...let me know if anything looks out of whack.

Round 1
AT - William Patterson (.741/.565/4-3)
C - UW-Stevens Point (.808/.575/2-4)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - Marietta (.893/.519/4-3)
MA - Johns Hopkins (.852/.539/3-3)
NE - Trinity-Conn. (.792/.535/5-1)
S - Virginia Wesleyan (.815/.554/0-4)
W - St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)

Round 2
AT - William Patterson (.741/.565/4-3)
C - UW-Stevens Point (.808/.575/2-4)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - Ohio Wesleyan (.815/.537/3-1)
MA - Johns Hopkins (.852/.539/3-3)
NE - Trinity-Conn. (.792/.535/5-1)
S - Virginia Wesleyan (.815/.554/0-4)
W - St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)

Round 3
AT - William Patterson (.741/.565/4-3)
C - UW-Stevens Point (.808/.575/2-4)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - Ohio Wesleyan (.815/.537/3-1)
MA - Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)
NE - Trinity-Conn. (.792/.535/5-1)
S - Virginia Wesleyan (.815/.554/0-4)
W - St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)

Round 4
AT - William Patterson (.741/.565/4-3)
C - Washington U. (.800/.565/4-2)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - Ohio Wesleyan (.815/.537/3-1)
MA - Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)
NE - Trinity-Conn. (.792/.535/5-1)
S - Virginia Wesleyan (.815/.554/0-4)
W - St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)

Round 5
AT - William Patterson (.741/.565/4-3)
C - Illinois Wesleyan (.704/.591/5-5)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - Ohio Wesleyan (.815/.537/3-1)
MA - Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)
NE - Trinity-Conn. (.792/.535/5-1)
S - Virginia Wesleyan (.815/.554/0-4)
W - St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)

Round 6
AT - William Patterson (.741/.565/4-3)
C - Illinois Wesleyan (.704/.591/5-5)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - Wooster (.786/.551/3-2)
MA - Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)
NE - Trinity-Conn. (.792/.535/5-1)
S - Virginia Wesleyan (.815/.554/0-4)
W - St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)

Round 7
AT - William Patterson (.741/.565/4-3)
C - Illinois Wesleyan (.704/.591/5-5)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - Wooster (.786/.551/3-2)
MA - Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)
NE - Amherst (.741/.579/6-3)
S - Virginia Wesleyan (.815/.554/0-4)
W - St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)

Round 8
AT - William Patterson (.741/.565/4-3)
C - Illinois Wesleyan (.704/.591/5-5)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - Wooster (.786/.551/3-2)
MA - Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)
NE - Bates (.760/.609/4-5)
S - Virginia Wesleyan (.815/.554/0-4)
W - St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)

Round 9
AT - William Patterson (.741/.565/4-3)
C - Illinois Wesleyan (.704/.591/5-5)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - Wooster (.786/.551/3-2)
MA - Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)
NE - Eastern Conn. (.815/.550/0-2)
S - Virginia Wesleyan (.815/.554/0-4)
W - St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)

Round 10
AT - Brooklyn (.786/.507/2-3)
C - Illinois Wesleyan (.704/.591/5-5)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - Wooster (.786/.551/3-2)
MA - Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)
NE - Eastern Conn. (.815/.550/0-2)
S - Virginia Wesleyan (.815/.554/0-4)
W - St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)

Round 11
AT - Brooklyn (.786/.507/2-3)
C - Illinois Wesleyan (.704/.591/5-5)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - John Carroll (.769/.527/3-3)
MA - Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)
NE - Eastern Conn. (.815/.550/0-2)
S - Virginia Wesleyan (.815/.554/0-4)
W - St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)

Round 12
AT - Brooklyn (.786/.507/2-3)
C - Elmhurst (.731/.551/4-4)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - John Carroll (.769/.527/3-3)
MA - Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)
NE - Eastern Conn. (.815/.550/0-2)
S - Virginia Wesleyan (.815/.554/0-4)
W - St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)

Round 13
AT - Brooklyn (.786/.507/2-3)
C - North Central (.667/.587/3-6)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - John Carroll (.769/.527/3-3)
MA - Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)
NE - Eastern Conn. (.815/.550/0-2)
S - Virginia Wesleyan (.815/.554/0-4)
W - St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)

Round 14
AT - Brooklyn (.786/.507/2-3)
C - North Central (.667/.587/3-6)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - John Carroll (.769/.527/3-3)
MA - Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)
NE - Eastern Conn. (.815/.550/0-2)
S - Centre (.800/.513/1-2)
W - St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)

Round 15
AT - Brooklyn (.786/.507/2-3)
C - North Central (.667/.587/3-6)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - Hope (.680/.558/2-6)
MA - Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)
NE - Eastern Conn. (.815/.550/0-2)
S - Centre (.800/.513/1-2)
W - St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)

Round 16
AT - Brooklyn (.786/.507/2-3)
C - North Central (.667/.587/3-6)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - Hope (.680/.558/2-6)
MA - Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)
NE - Eastern Conn. (.815/.550/0-2)
S - Centre (.800/.513/1-2)
W - Bethel (.679/.564/4-3)

Round 17
AT - Brooklyn (.786/.507/2-3)
C - North Central (.667/.587/3-6)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - Hope (.680/.558/2-6)
MA - Franklin & Marshall (.769/.517/3-3)
NE - Eastern Conn. (.815/.550/0-2)
S - Centre (.800/.513/1-2)
W - Bethel (.679/.564/4-3)

Round 18
AT - Brooklyn (.786/.507/2-3)
C - North Central (.667/.587/3-6)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - Hope (.680/.558/2-6)
MA - Franklin & Marshall (.769/.517/3-3)
NE - WPI (.808/.515/2-3)
S - Centre (.800/.513/1-2)
W - Bethel (.679/.564/4-3)

Round 19
AT - Brooklyn (.786/.507/2-3)
C - North Central (.667/.587/3-6)
E - Plattsburgh State (.704/.534/1-0)
GL - Hope (.680/.558/2-6)
MA - Franklin & Marshall (.769/.517/3-3)
NE - Bowdoin (.692/.571/1-6)
S - Centre (.800/.513/1-2)
W - Bethel (.679/.564/4-3)

good effort, Titan - the national committee can get a good night's sleep, now.

[ronk]

 Mid-Atlantic & Atlantic pod forecast:

Dickinson-Misericordia,Va. Wesleyan, Wooster(return the favor from last year)
Johns Hopkins-Scranton,Neuman,St. Vincent
Richard Stockton-Catholic,Alvernia,Trinity
William Paterson-E. Conn,SUNY-Cobleskill,Salisbury

Each pod has at least 3 regions represented.

[magicman]

Mid-Atlantic & Atlantic pod forecast:

Dickinson-Misericordia,Va. Wesleyan, Wooster(return the favor from last year)
Johns Hopkins-Scranton,Neuman,Wooster
Richard Stockton-Catholic,Alvernia,Trinity
William Paterson-E. Conn,SUNY-Cobleskill,Salisbury

Each pod has at least 3 regions represented.

ronk,

Did you mean to have Wooster in there twice?

[David Collinge]

Mid-Atlantic & Atlantic pod forecast:

Dickinson-Misericordia,Va. Wesleyan, Wooster(return the favor from last year)
Johns Hopkins-Scranton,Neuman,Wooster
Richard Stockton-Catholic,Alvernia,Trinity
William Paterson-E. Conn,SUNY-Cobleskill,Salisbury

Each pod has at least 3 regions represented.

I love spring training, especially split squad games.

[bopol]

Titan - I pretty much have the same as you through 17 picks.  My last two picks are Franklin and Marshall and North Central, but I did that yesterday before I realized how much Springfield would benefit from beating WPI and I think I would have to pick Springfield over NCC at this point, but...

What do you think the order in the NE will be?  I think Springfield's got to be ahead of WPI at this point given the advantage in SOS and taking 2 of 3 games.  I'm going to rethink the last few picks I made, but I have really doubts about WPI getting to the board at this point.

[7express]

Here's my best tally on the 19 pool C's, not necessarily in the order they'll be selected however:

Locks (you have a better chance at winning the lottery then these teams have at missing the tournament):
Amherst
Hopkins
Ohio Wesleyan
Virginia Wesleyan
Marietta
Wash U
Stevens Point

Probably in (not quite locks in my eyes but all of these teams should be in the field by the 17th round):
Wooster
William Paterson
St. Olaf
Eastern Connecticut
Illinois Wesleyan
Bates
Trinity (CT)

Should get in:
Elmhurst

That should leave me with 15 teams that are either locks (red), probably in (orange) and should be in (blue).

Squarely on the bubble (these teams will be sweating it out for the next 16 hours or so):
catholic
Plattsburgh
WPI
Franklin & Marshall
---------------------
John Carroll
Bowdoin
Springfield
Centre
Bethel
NYU
North Central (IL)
Buena Vista
Whitman
That line is my cut off point.  I think the 4 teams above the line get in (the last 4 teams in the field).

Likely not in the field (though I have seen stranger things happen on selection Monday):
Baruch
Brooklyn
Hobart
PS-Behrend
St. Mary's (MD)
Southern Vermont
Hardin-Simmons
Hope
MHB
Rhodes

As people have said here order will definitely matter in the East (between Plattsburgh & NYU), MA (between F&M & Catholic) and in the West (between Bethel/Whitman/Buena Vista), and maybe to a lesser extent the Northeast (only if there are any spots left between WPI/Springfield/Bowdoin).
Plattsburgh was #2 last week and even with a loss I doubt NYU can jump them (was 5 last week), and if Plattsburgh gets selected it's likely very late in the process so even though NYU will have comparable numbers to lets say a Catholic, WPI, F&M, Buena Vista there won't be many, if any, rounds left for NYU
In the MA I think F&M will jump Catholic, but I have both teams in the field anyways.
In the West, if Bethel is able to get to the table I'd say they are definitely in, the problem with them is I don't think they are getting there.  They were #7 and are 3 wins against St. Olaf AND trip to the conference finals (while BV & Whitman both lost in the semifinals) enough to have Bethel jump 2 teams AND 3 or 4 spots??  I don't think so.  I think they pass Whitworth but BV ends up blocking them.

So to recap my 19 Pool C teams:

1) Amherst
2) Hopkins
3) Ohio Wesleyan
4) Virginia Wesleyan
5) Marietta
6) Wash U
7) Stevens Point
8) Wooster
9) William Paterson
10) St. Olaf
11) Eastern Connecticut
12) Illinois Wesleyan
13) Bates
14) Trinity
15) Elmhurst
16) Catholic
17) Plattsburgh
18) WPI
19) Franklin & Marshall

Last 4 in: Catholic, Plattsburgh, WPI, F&M
First 4 out: Buena Vista, NYU, Bethel, John Carroll

[ronk]

Mid-Atlantic & Atlantic pod forecast:

Dickinson-Misericordia,Va. Wesleyan, Wooster(return the favor from last year)
Johns Hopkins-Scranton,Neuman,St. Vincent
Richard Stockton-Catholic,Alvernia,Trinity
William Paterson-E. Conn,SUNY-Cobleskill,Salisbury

Each pod has at least 3 regions represented.

now modified

[Greek Tragedy]

So...12:30 Eastern or Central for the men?

[7express]

So...12:30 Eastern or Central for the men?

I'm pretty sure it's Eastern.  The offices are in Indianapolis after all 

[bopol]

Final Bracket:

Cheese Bracket (note every team in this bracket except for the Emory pod is within 500 miles of St. Thomas or Stevens Point, which slightly limited the diversity in Augustana pod):

UWSP
DePauw
Calvin
Elmhurst

Emory
Spaudling
Lagrange
CMS

St Norbert
Concordia WI
Defiance
St Thomas

Augustana
* Bye
Dubuque
St Olaf


Maple Syrup Bracket (All the teams in this pod are within 500 miles of Babson Park, MA, but some are further than 500 miles from Ashland, VA (Randolph Macon)):

Babson
SUNY-Cobleskill
Franklin and Marshall
Bates

St John Fisher
Neumann
Endicott
Albertus Magnus

Richard Stockton
Colby-Sawyer
Scranton
Amherst

Johns Hopkins
Regis
Keene State
Skidmore

Hot Dog Bracket (I figure this bracket would end up in Whitewater the 2nd weekend, which every team (except for Oswego St, Medaille and the ETSU pod) can get to on a bus.  As a result, there is a lack of diversity in the Wooster pod.  If there are upsets, then I guess they could go to OWU and Delaware, OH) :

UWW
Northwestern
Mount Union
North Central

East Texas Baptist
Rhodes
Texas Lutheran
Whitworth

Ohio Wesleyan
SUNY-Oswego
John Carroll
Wash U

Wooster
Medaille
St Vincent
IWU

Grits Bracket (Everyone in this bracket can reach Ashland, VA on a bus):

Randolph-Macon
*BYE
Barach
Trinity

Dickinson
Sage
Westfield State
Wesleyan

Marietta
Misicordia
William Paterson
Catholic

Virginia Wesleyan
Salisbury
Alvernia
Eastern Connecticut

I'll post thoughts in the next post...

[magicman]

Could someone answer these questions for me?

1. It used to be once ranked, always ranked, but I thought that was changed, so that if you drop out of the rankings it will affect other teams vRRO.

2. I was told today that the National committee doesn't update the vRRO after last week's published record. In other words if a team makes the next set of rankings that wasn't previously regionally ranked it won't alter another team's vRRO.

Example: KnightSlappy says Keene State will replace Southern Vermont in the NE Regional Rankings. Keene State hasn't been ranked at all this year. Plattsburgh currently has a 1-0 record vRRO. They own a win against Keene State. When they are at the table will the committee see that they are now 2-0 vRRO because Keene State is now ranked or will they be looking at last week's 1-0 record.  I was told they would be looking at last week's record, which doesn't make sense to me.     

[bopol]

Thoughts on my bracket:

1) I uncomfortably stuck with my Pool C picks, including my final four of Catholic, John Carroll, Franklin and Marshall and North Central.  There is a logic to this that I will try to explain, but I could see it going many different ways and could easily see none of those 4 getting in.

a. Catholic is a four loss team with a SOS above .500.  That's really good, no matter what else is going on.
b. The committee gags itself on eight losses.  We've seen it in the past.  I figure that gives John Carroll and F&M an advantage as six loss teams with pretty good SOS against 8 loss teams with excellent SOS.
c. For what it's worth, I have Springfield ahead of WPI based on winning two of three.  So WPI doesn't get off the board.  Similarly (but less convincingly), I'm not sure Bethel will get ahead of Buena Vista based on losing head to head.  So, I'm not sure Bethel or WPI are in play in the last pick. 
d. I can't pull the trigger on Centre.  Their best win in Rhodes.
e. Plattsburgh State or NYU don't deserve a bid over an 8 loss North Central or Springfield.  One loss does not make up for .050 SOS.
f. I chose North Central because of wins over Stevens Point and Augustana, which I think everyone can agree are Top 10 teams.  Springfield doesn't have a win of that quality.
g. I applied this logic to Carthage last year and was wrong, so I'm probably wrong this year (though North Central isn't so far outside of the committee's wheel house as Carthage was last year).

2) Knightslappy is right, we're going to get the west coast teams traveling to Emory and ETBU to only have two flights this weekend. 
3) I moved the bye to Augustana based on the comment on Augustana being #1 in their region and there is no reason that'll change.
4) I am pretty sure that there are no possible conflicts with women's tourney sites.
5) There is the occasional lack of regional diversity.  There are two causes for this:

a. I tried to build brackets where the 2nd weekend will be played with hosts that have earned that right as opposed to geographic centers.  In my opinion, Augustana, St Thomas, and Stevens Point are deserving, but that creates travel problems from even the midwest (like western NY is too far away).  I tried to work around that.  Similarly, Randolph Macon is too far for about 6 of the New England teams.  Babson Park is too far for a few of the Southern teams.  There will be two flights the second weekend from the winners of the Emory and ETBU pods and that pretty much is unavoidable.
b. The Emory and ETBU pods require a lack of diversity or will require more flights.

6) I think I don't have any dumb conflicts (thank you for pointing out the Keene St/Eastern Conn problem).  If I do, well, oops.
7) I have four teams from the CCIW and NESCAC and tried to split them up enough.

Anyway, that was fun.  Now, I'll wait back to see what the real committee does.