Pool C

[KnightSlappy]

I don't necessarily agree. F&M is actually an example of a team that has actually changed its scheduling over the years to improve it AND get out of their gym. Now, they normally have four games at home based on two tournaments (one of those tournaments wasn't held this season). Outside of that, they get out of town more often and play.

The way the SOS is being calculated, any team that will hurt one's SOS will hurt less when played at home than on the road.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

KS,

If I'm reading those numbers correctly, if a conference has a lower D3SOS than NCSOS, then their conference is actually lowering the overall SOS of the teams in it?  I know these numbers are with uncompleted conference schedules, so they can't be taken as absolute.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Another thing to remember about the SOS, is not only is it a fluid number based on a team still having to play games... but it is a fluid number because all of their opponents... and their opponents are still playing games. We aren't used to the SOS making dramatic changes, but we have to remember it is constantly adjusting when ever a game is played in the country.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Regional rankings are finally out and with them comes plenty of upheaval around the country. What do the rankings really mean? What teams should everyone be watching this week? Who is jockeying to lock up their conference's regular season title?

On Thursday night's Hoopsville, Dave McHugh hopes to get a lot of these questions answered. McHugh will talk to coaches from around the country who have their teams poised to capture conference crowns or at while also positioning themselves the best they can in the regional rankings.

Hoopsville is on the air NOW, but you can also watch it On Demand or listen to the podcasts (when the show is done) here: www.d3hoops.com/hoopsville/archives/2015-16/feb11

Guests include (in order of appearance):
- Janice Luck, No. 12 Albright women's coach
- Jon VanderWal, No. 8 Marietta men's coach
- Lance Loya, Mount Aloysius men's coach - NABC Coach's Corner
- Tom Glynn, Nichols' men's coach

You can also tune into the podcast(s) after the show has aired:
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Also, if you know any advertisers interested in promoting their company or products on the show, send them our way: hoopsville@d3hoops.com

Thanks!

[KnightSlappy]

KS,

If I'm reading those numbers correctly, if a conference has a lower D3SOS than NCSOS, then their conference is actually lowering the overall SOS of the teams in it?  I know these numbers are with uncompleted conference schedules, so they can't be taken as absolute.

Yes, that is correct. It will be interesting to see final numbers, but adding in the conference slate doesn't simply pull everyone toward .500. Conference play does have more .500 weight built in, but good conferences that beat up on non-con competition still raise the SOS of their member teams.

[KnightSlappy]

As Dave mentioned, I very much hope if Lancaster Bible wins all but the conference title game that they'd get in with only one loss. If not then it's probably gone too far to the numbers game.

An interesting though experiment: what record would Illinois Wesleyan (11-11) have if they played Lancaster Bible's schedule? Would it be a stretch to say they could be 18-1?

The 'worst' team Illinois Wesleyan has lost to Loras (Massey Rank #1143). Lancaster Bible's two best wins are Franklin & Marshall (Massey #692) and Eastern (Massey #1337). Maybe we say IWU loses to F&M, but they'd be the favorite (big favorite?) in every other game on Lancaster Bible's schedule.

[Mr. Ypsi]

As Dave mentioned, I very much hope if Lancaster Bible wins all but the conference title game that they'd get in with only one loss. If not then it's probably gone too far to the numbers game.

An interesting though experiment: what record would Illinois Wesleyan (11-11) have if they played Lancaster Bible's schedule? Would it be a stretch to say they could be 18-1?

The 'worst' team Illinois Wesleyan has lost to Loras (Massey Rank #1143). Lancaster Bible's two best wins are Franklin & Marshall (Massey #692) and Eastern (Massey #1337). Maybe we say IWU loses to F&M, but they'd be the favorite (big favorite?) in every other game on Lancaster Bible's schedule.

IWU has had a boatload of injuries to key players this year, so 'maybe' only 17-2!   But point noted.

Benedictine is another case of a dominant team in a very weak conference (the NACC ONCE did get a second team into the tourney - the result was that they went 0-2 instead of their usual 0-1), but I assume they would be a lock for a Pool C even if they somehow suffered a loss?  Benedictine has beaten the only team seemingly a real threat (Aurora) by 28 and 23 points.  I strongly suspect that LBC and Benedictine will both enter the tourney undefeated; Benedictine is a strong candidate to reach Salem (esp. if the committee separates them from Augie), LBC will not reach the second week.

On the other hand, Benedictine DID beat 11-11 IWU by only two points!

[sac]

KS,

If I'm reading those numbers correctly, if a conference has a lower D3SOS than NCSOS, then their conference is actually lowering the overall SOS of the teams in it?  I know these numbers are with uncompleted conference schedules, so they can't be taken as absolute.

Yes, that is correct. It will be interesting to see final numbers, but adding in the conference slate doesn't simply pull everyone toward .500. Conference play does have more .500 weight built in, but good conferences that beat up on non-con competition still raise the SOS of their member teams.

I need to clarify, when I talk about SOS being pulled to .500 I'm only talking about the conference slate itself, not even the non-conference games of your conference opponents.

Of course as you add teams to your resume through the season you're adding the overall record of your opponent and that changes your SOS at the time.  But for the most part all that really affects your SOS is your non-conference slate and your opponents overall schedule.  ie, whether Kalamazoo beats Olivet or Olivet beats Kalamazoo is of no consequence to my teams SOS, that washes out at .500.  I would only care about the result if I played one of those two in a post-season game such a conference tournament.


A good way to do it is make a list of all the games that affects your teams total SOS.  Now block off all the games between teams on your schedule.  That block of games has a net .500 affect on SOS so long as you have 1 home and 1 road.  The larger your conference, the larger that block is, and the higher percentage of total games that draws your SOS to .500.

Because conferences are different sizes and have different tournament formats, the "block" of games is very different for everyone.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Yeah, I make this argument all of the time. The CONFERENCE SOS i basically .500.. but I even understand there is some range there depending on exact conference schedules and the like. I usually start at .500 and for the lower conferences I mentally think of it between .480 and .500 and for the tougher, better conferences .500 and .520. I don't ever assume the numbers are dead right, but I know that the part of the SOS that a team can truly change is the out-of-conference schedule... I use the .500 as a gauge of how they did that in comparison.

[Ryan Stoppable]

Benedictine is another case of a dominant team in a very weak conference (the NACC ONCE did get a second team into the tourney - the result was that they went 0-2 instead of their usual 0-1), but I assume they would be a lock for a Pool C even if they somehow suffered a loss?

About that: would Aurora have a shot at getting in via Pool C? If they win out and then take a third loss to Benedictine in the conference tournament, they'd be 22-5 overall, although most of that is at the expense of the very weak evenly matched, exciting and unpredictable NACC.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Benedictine is another case of a dominant team in a very weak conference (the NACC ONCE did get a second team into the tourney - the result was that they went 0-2 instead of their usual 0-1), but I assume they would be a lock for a Pool C even if they somehow suffered a loss?

About that: would Aurora have a shot at getting in via Pool C? If they win out and then take a third loss to Benedictine in the conference tournament, they'd be 22-5 overall, although most of that is at the expense of the very weak evenly matched, exciting and unpredictable NACC.

I think they've got a pretty good shot, assuming they win until the conference championship game.  It'll depend on upsets, of course, but they'v got a decent SOS.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Maybe not a Pool C question but could Whitworth's chance to get a bye (assuming they win out) depend on if Colorado College wins the SCAC (currently half a game up on Texas Lutheran for 1st)?
If CC gets in, then would the NCAA set up a pod of Whitworth, Whitman, SCIAC team, and Colorado College? Whereas if say TLU takes the SCAC then we end up with a SCIAC/Whitman game with the winner playing Whitworth?

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Maybe not a Pool C question but could Whitworth's chance to get a bye (assuming they win out) depend on if Colorado College wins the SCAC (currently half a game up on Texas Lutheran for 1st)?
If CC gets in, then would the NCAA set up a pod of Whitworth, Whitman, SCIAC team, and Colorado College? Whereas if say TLU takes the SCAC then we end up with a SCIAC/Whitman game with the winner playing Whitworth?

You have to figure in the ASC winner as well.  Whitman's certainly on the bubble, too.  Is CC wins the SCAC, you could see three teams flying to Whitworth for a weekend pod (SLIAC, SCAC, and ASC).

I don't have the ASC driving distances memorized, but sometimes they can drive places, other times not.  If there are two teams from Texas, you're going to see some kind of pod there (probably with the west coast teams flown in).

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Maybe not a Pool C question but could Whitworth's chance to get a bye (assuming they win out) depend on if Colorado College wins the SCAC (currently half a game up on Texas Lutheran for 1st)?
If CC gets in, then would the NCAA set up a pod of Whitworth, Whitman, SCIAC team, and Colorado College? Whereas if say TLU takes the SCAC then we end up with a SCIAC/Whitman game with the winner playing Whitworth?

You have to figure in the ASC winner as well.  Whitman's certainly on the bubble, too.  Is CC wins the SCAC, you could see three teams flying to Whitworth for a weekend pod (SLIAC, SCAC, and ASC).

I don't have the ASC driving distances memorized, but sometimes they can drive places, other times not.  If there are two teams from Texas, you're going to see some kind of pod there (probably with the west coast teams flown in).

Honestly, if Colorado College wins the SCAC, the committee could do whatever they want with them. They don't have to ship them to Whitworth. They have a chance to ship them wherever since a flight is mandatory. Colorado is not 500 miles from any Division III institution (the closest I believe is Nebraska Wesleyan at 553), so they are flying to whomever.

So yes, Whitworth could get a first round bye, but only IF they bring in a second NWC school (SCIAC isn't getting a second). Whitman would have to make a strong enough case to be an at-large team... OR win the conference title and Whitworth still received a first-round, geographic-only, bye (or outside chance Whitman, but I doubt it).

As for Texas, should Colorado College win, that will probably only leave one other team in Texas coming out of the ASC. That will basically force two flights (really three, considering the SCIAC) and to be honest, that opens up a HUGE door for the committee. They can ship all three of those teams (SCIAC, ASC, SCAC) where ever the heck they want to, but maybe at the detrement for Whitworth and Whitman who won't be shipped anywhere (too many flights already). They will either make a pod of four or three with Whitworth and send the remaining one or two teams elsewhere also opening up the bye to go somewhere else.

Should Colorado College lose, then we have two Texas teams (and right now, I can't imagine a third at all no matter the outcomes) who will play the Thursday game and get shipped to whomever the committee wants to give the bye to. OR ship BOTH Texas teams to a pod (though, I can't imagine the NCAA paying for two flights here). Should they both play each other, they would have the brutal experience of basically traveling the next day by air some place, barely getting time to practice, before playing their opponent on Saturday night.

Yes, there is a chance with two-teams from Texas to create a three-team pod by flying in the SCIAC team. Then you have to still fly in a team to the Northwest to play Whitman leaving the rest of the country with no bye what-so-ever. (No, Whitman would not be flown to Texas to break up the NWC, because that would still require a flight from the SCIAC to the Northwest and another flight into the Northwest to fill out the pod - one extra flight that isn't needed).

So Colorado College presents a world of options to the committee... and a two-Texas pod either creates an interesting bye, or takes a bye away from a top team somewhere else in the country.

Does that all make sense? LOL

[AO]

I don't necessarily agree. F&M is actually an example of a team that has actually changed its scheduling over the years to improve it AND get out of their gym. Now, they normally have four games at home based on two tournaments (one of those tournaments wasn't held this season). Outside of that, they get out of town more often and play.

The way the SOS is being calculated, any team that will hurt one's SOS will hurt less when played at home than on the road.

I was just using F&M because you called them out.  I'm sure there's plenty of confusion out there so most coaches probably don't realize that they're better off scheduling the under .500 teams at home rather than on the road.  This year F&M would have a higher SoS if they played Albright at home rather than on the road.

Just doing a quick look around, Amherst is using the faulty multiplier to it's advantage by only playing Johnson State at home the last couple years.  If Amherst went on the road to Johnson State and other bad teams that might negate the advantage they have from playing in the single round robin NESCAC.