Pool C

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I'll do nightly updates on the ranking data now that the public data is behind us.

http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/

Quick straw poll: I had been holding out on updates between Sundays and Wednesdays until the rankings come out. Is that something you all like, or would you rather have seen nightly updates these last couple weeks?

Honestly, I use your numbers to gauge what the committee is thinking... so if you were to update them on Sunday and then on Tuesday before rankings come out and I go to look on Tuesday to see what might happen, I might get numbers all jacked up. In the final week after the final rankings are done I think it is okay to update them a few times, but I think prior to the last rankings I rather see what the committee is actually looking at if that makes any sense.

Another thought to the final week, you might not want to update them too often or arguments on these pages and elsewhere might start to get confusing. I would pick maybe every other day with the weekend being the exception. Or just Wednesday and then the weekend. Again, cuts down on confusion.

I agree - wait on the nightly updates until after the last RR come out.  It makes it easier for reference.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Question about a RAC and regional rankings:
    In the MA currently Scranton is #5 and F&M 6th; let's suppose F&M loses in the semis(like Scranton did) and Danzig and Robinson are their conference's RAC representatives. Are we to believe that each coach or any other RAC rep will not be lobbying for their own team's best regional ranking position? They'll probably take the high road but is the oversee by the national RAC the only check against personal bias? Come Pool C selection time, the national committee coach whose team is at the table, is excused from the discussion.  Just wondering?

F&M is not close enough to Scranton to pass them.  F&M is only in the rankings because there are literally no other viable candidates in the region.  The plus side for your boys, though, I think they're ahead of NJCU in terms of criteria (similar record, better SOS) - they're probably the best team who's definitely in Pool C as of this moment.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Thursday's games I see only four definite bubble watches (Whitworth, Marietta, JCU, and CNU) and really the Marietta/JCU is only a bubble if both of them fail to get the AQ.

Salisbury losing tonight is a possible bubble burst, as is a Whitman loss.  I'm not sure if J&W would see the table if they lost tonight, but it's certainly one to watch.  East Texas Baptist is in a similar spot - not sure either is a bubble.

[KnightSlappy]

I'll do nightly updates on the ranking data now that the public data is behind us.

http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/

Quick straw poll: I had been holding out on updates between Sundays and Wednesdays until the rankings come out. Is that something you all like, or would you rather have seen nightly updates these last couple weeks?

Honestly, I use your numbers to gauge what the committee is thinking... so if you were to update them on Sunday and then on Tuesday before rankings come out and I go to look on Tuesday to see what might happen, I might get numbers all jacked up. In the final week after the final rankings are done I think it is okay to update them a few times, but I think prior to the last rankings I rather see what the committee is actually looking at if that makes any sense.

Another thought to the final week, you might not want to update them too often or arguments on these pages and elsewhere might start to get confusing. I would pick maybe every other day with the weekend being the exception. Or just Wednesday and then the weekend. Again, cuts down on confusion.

I agree - wait on the nightly updates until after the last RR come out.  It makes it easier for reference.

OK thanks. That was my thinking in holding off on updates between Sunday and Wednesday.

I think I'll update them nightly from here on out (because that's only 4 more days!). Let's just be aware that the numbers will change based on that day's games. Also note there's a date/time stamp on the top right corner showing when the last update was run.

[HOPEful]

I think I'll update them nightly from here on out (because that's only 4 more days!). Let's just be aware that the numbers will change based on that day's games. Also note there's a date/time stamp on the top right corner showing when the last update was run.

KnightSlappy, your ranking data is probably my favorite thing anyone does on this board. Thank you for doing it and I am happy you'll be doing it daily for the conference tournaments.

[KnightSlappy]

I think I'll update them nightly from here on out (because that's only 4 more days!). Let's just be aware that the numbers will change based on that day's games. Also note there's a date/time stamp on the top right corner showing when the last update was run.

KnightSlappy, your ranking data is probably my favorite thing anyone does on this board. Thank you for do it and am happy you'll be doing it daily for the conference tournaments.

Thanks! Glad you like it.

I have bigger plans for next season which will include KenPom-like efficiency ratings in addition to this Regional Ranking data. Hopefully I don't run into any big obstacles there (trying to learn some Python coding to make this happen).

[ronk]

Question about a RAC and regional rankings:
    In the MA currently Scranton is #5 and F&M 6th; let's suppose F&M loses in the semis(like Scranton did) and Danzig and Robinson are their conference's RAC representatives. Are we to believe that each coach or any other RAC rep will not be lobbying for their own team's best regional ranking position? They'll probably take the high road but is the oversee by the national RAC the only check against personal bias? Come Pool C selection time, the national committee coach whose team is at the table, is excused from the discussion.  Just wondering?

They have to come off the call, ronk. Danzig and Robinson would not be allowed to participate in any conversations regarding their teams. It simply isn't allowed. When it comes to selections on the national level, if a coach's team comes to the table... they get off the call. Donohue from Catholic sat on hold/mute/off for a very long time a few years ago.

Thanks, Dave. I never heard this considered at the regional level, only the national.

[Greek Tragedy]

Updated through last night's games.

I'll be updating results throughout the week.

Teams in BOLD are conferences winners/leaders. An * means there's a tie. Pool A (Automatic qualifiers) will be BLUE once their conference tournaments are complete. Teams losing will be RED and will be considered Pool C.

ATL
WK3	WK2	WK1	Team	LW	Schedule
#1	#1	#4	New Jersey City (NJAC)	1-0	LOST to TCNJ 92-82 in semis
#2	#2	#1	Stockton (NJAC)	1-0	WON vs Rutgers-Newark 95-75 in semis; vs TCNJ Final
#3	#3	#5	DeSales (MACF)	2-0	LOST to Wilkes 72-62 in semis
#4	#5	#3	Brooklyn (CUNYAC)	2-0	WON vs Staten Island 78-69 in semis; vs Baruch in Final 2/26
#5			Lehman (CUNYAC)	1-0	LOST to Baruch 80-64 in semis
#6	#4	#2	Staten Island (CUNYAC)	0-1	LOST to Brooklyn 78-69 in semis
#7	#6	#6	Rutgers-Newark (NJAC)	2-0	WON vs William Paterson 78-52 in QFs; LOST at Stockton 95-75 in semis
			DROPPING OUT
	#7	#7	Delaware Valley (MACF)
CENT
WK3	WK2	WK1	Team	LW	Schedule
#1	#1	#1	Benedictine (NACC)	1-0	vs TBD 2/26
#2	#2	#2	Augustana (CCIW)	1-0	vs Illinois Wesleyan in semis 2/26
#3	#3	#3	St.Norbert (MWC)	1-0	vs Lake Forest in semis 2/26
#4	#4	#4	North Central (IL) (CCIW)	1-0	vs Elmhurst in semis 2/26
#5	#5	#5	Elmhurst (CCIW)	0-1	vs North Central in semis 2/26
#6	#6	#7	Chicago (UAA)	1-1	vs Washington U. 2/27
#7	#7	#6	Aurora (NACC)	2-0	vs TBD in semis 2/26
#8	#8	#8	Carroll (MWC)	2-0	vs Ripon in semis 2/26
EAST
WK3	WK2	WK1	Team		Schedule
#1	#1	#1	Plattsburgh St. (SUNYAC)	3-0	vs Oswego St in semis 2/26
#2	#2	#2	*Rochester (UAA)	1-1	vs Emory 2/27
#3	#6		NYU (UAA)	1-1	at Brandeis 2/27
#4		#6	St. John Fisher (E8)	2-0	vs Stevens in semis 2/26
#5	#5	#4	Oswego St. (SUNYAC)	1-1	WON vs SUNY Geneseo 75-59 in QFs; vs Plattsburgh St. in semis 2/26
#6	#3	#3	SUNY Geneseo (SUNYAC)	1-2	LOST to Oswego St. 75-59 in QFs
			DROPPING OUT
		#5	SUNY Oneonta (SUNYAC)
	#4		Brockport (SUNYAC)
GL
WK3	WK2	WK1	Team	LW	Schedule
#1	#1	#2	Marietta (OAC)	2-0	WON vs Wilmington 93-78; vs Baldwin Wallace in semis 2/25
#2	#3	#3	Ohio Wesleyan (NCAC)	2-0	WON vs Wabash 100-80; vs   Denison in semis 2/26
#3	#2	#1	John Carroll (OAC)	1-1	WON vs Capital 83-70; vs Mount Union in semis 2/26
#4	#5	#4	Hope (MIAA)	2-0	vs Trine in semis 2/26
#5	#4	#5	Alma (MIAA)	1-1	vs Albion in semis 2/26
#6	#6	#6	Wooster (NCAC)	2-0	WON vs Oberlin 78-63; vs Hiram in semis 2/26
#7	#8	#7	Mount Union (OAC)	2-1	WON vs Heidelberg 102-96; at John Carroll in semis 2/26
#8	#7	#8	Hiram (NCAC)	1-1	WON vs Kenyon 95-87; at Wooster in semis 2/26
#9	#9		St. Vincent (PAC)	2-0	WON vs Chatham 80-65; vs Westminster in semis 2/25
			DROPPING OUT
		#9	Trine (MIAA)
MA
WK3	WK2	WK1	Team	LW	Schedule
#1	#1	#1	Christopher Newport(CAC)	2-0	vs St. Mary's in semis 2/25
#2	#2	#2	*Susquehanna (LAND)	3-0	WON vs Scranton 77-72 in semis; vs Catholic in Final 2/27
#3	#3	#3	Salisbury (CAC)	2-0	vs Mary Washington in semis 2/25
#4	#4	#4	*Catholic (LAND)	3-0	WON vs Juniata 79-66; vs Susquehanna in Final 2/27
#5	#5	#6	Scranton (LAND)	1-1	LOST to Susquehanna 77-72 in semis
#6	#6	#5	Franklin and Marshall (CC)	2-1	vs Gettysburg in semis 2/26
NE
WK3	WK2	WK1	Team	LW	Schedule
#1	#1	#1	Amherst (NECAC)	1-0	vs Tufts in semis 2/27
#2	#2	#2	Trinity (Conn.) (NESCAC)	1-0	vs Middlebury in semis 2/27
#3	#3	#3	Tufts (NESCAC)	1-0	at Amherst in semis 2/27
#4	#4	#4	Babson (NEWMAC)	2-0	vs Emerson in semis 2/27
#5	#5	#6	WPI (NEWMAC)	2-0	vs MIT in semis 2/27
#6	#8	#9	Johnson & Wales (GNAC)	2-0	WON vs St. Joseph's 73-36; vs Emmanuel in semis 2/25
#7	#6	#7	Eastern Connecticut (LEC)	1-1	WON vs Mass-Boston 93-65; vs Mass-Dartmouth in semis 2/27
#8	#9	#8	MIT (NEWMAC)
#9			Middlebury (NESCAC)	1-0	at Trinity in semis 2/27
#10	#10	#10	Southern Vermont(NECC)	2-0	vs Regis in semis 2/26
#11	#11	#11	Nichols (CCC)	2-0	WON vs W. New England 10768; vs Endicott in semis 2/25
			DROPPING OUT
	#7	#5	Wesleyan (NESCAC)
SOUTH
WK3	WK2	WK1	Team	LW	Schedule
#1	#1	#2	Texas Lutheran (SCAC)	0-1	vs TBD in semis 2/27
#2	#4	#4	*Lynchburg (ODAC)	2-0	vs Hampden-Sydney in QFs 2/26
#3	#3	#1	*Emory (UAA)	1-1	at Rochester 2/27
#4	#2	#3	*Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC)	0-2	vs Randolph-Macon in QFs 2/26
#5	#8	#8	N.C. Wesleyan (USAC)	2-0	vs Averett in QFs 2/25
#6	#5	#5	LaGrange (USAC)	2-0	vs Ferrum in QFs 2/25
#7	#6	#6	East Texas Baptist (ASC)	1-0	vs Mary Harin-Baylor in QFs 2/25
#8	#7	#7	Roanoke (ODAC)	0-2	vs Randolph in QFs 2/26
WEST
WK3	WK2	WK1	Team	LW	Schedule
#1	#1	#1	St. Thomas (MIAC)	2-0	vs Bethel in semis 2/26
#2	#2	#2	Whitworth (NWC)	2-0	vs Puget Sound in semis 2/25
#3	#3	#3	Whitman (NWC)	2-0	vs Pacific Lutheran in semis 2/25
#4	#4	#6	St. John's (MIAC)	1-1	WON vs Augsburg 99-86; at St. Olaf in semis 2/26
#5	#5		St.Olaf (MIAC)	0-1	vs St. John's in semis 2/26
#6	#6	#4	Concordia-Moorhead (MIAC)	1-0	LOST to Bethel 67-62 in QFs
#7		#5	Bethel (MIAC)	2-0	WON at Concordia-Moorhead 67-62; at St. Thomas in semis 2/26
			DROPPING OUT
		#7	Dubuque (IIAC)
	#7		Augsburg (MIAC)

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Question about a RAC and regional rankings:
    In the MA currently Scranton is #5 and F&M 6th; let's suppose F&M loses in the semis(like Scranton did) and Danzig and Robinson are their conference's RAC representatives. Are we to believe that each coach or any other RAC rep will not be lobbying for their own team's best regional ranking position? They'll probably take the high road but is the oversee by the national RAC the only check against personal bias? Come Pool C selection time, the national committee coach whose team is at the table, is excused from the discussion.  Just wondering?

They have to come off the call, ronk. Danzig and Robinson would not be allowed to participate in any conversations regarding their teams. It simply isn't allowed. When it comes to selections on the national level, if a coach's team comes to the table... they get off the call. Donohue from Catholic sat on hold/mute/off for a very long time a few years ago.

Thanks, Dave. I never heard this considered at the regional level, only the national.

It is mandatory at all levels. There is no way they will allow campaigning for a team if you are that team's coach. That hearkens back to the "good ol' days" and the furthest we can be from that dark period the better.

[Greek Tragedy]

My very unprofessional opinion. I've come to realize, this year, we really need to lower our expectations of what it takes to get a Pool C spot. There are so many teams with so many losses this year. I mean, Middlebury has 10 losses and they are regionally ranked.

Atlantic
I think Brooklyn jumps DeSales and has a real shot if they lose the CUNYAC Final. They've added 3 results v RRO with Lehman in and a win vs Staten Island this week. But, Stockton has to win the NJAC, leaving just NJCU ahead of them.

Central
Things are looking better and better for Chicago, Aurora and Carroll. The Maroons definitely need to win at home and Aurora and Carroll need to get to their conference finals where they will both add another result against a RRO, assuming it be Benedictine and St. Norbert.

East
The loser of Rochester and Emory is in. I think NYU sneaks in with a win at Brandeis.

Great Lakes
Mount Union could give themselves an opportunity to grab a Ppol C slot by knocking off JCU in the semis. That's a tall order, and then lose to another RRO in the Final.

Mid-Atlantic
I think both Susquehanna and Catholic are in, as is Salisbury. I don't think Scranton has enough. I think had Scranton beaten Susquehanna in the semis, the LAND could've gotten 3 teams in.

Northeast
WPI might be the cutoff and would secure that Pool C bid with a win over MIT.

South
Virginia Wesleyan is on the verge of being out of the NCAAs, so getting to the ODAC semis is a must, if not the Final. A loss  in the QFs will really make things interesting.

West
The winner of the St. John's/St. Olaf semifinal will be on the Pool C fence, and that's being very optimistic.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

WPI has had the lowest SOS for a pool C team the last two years (and that's with 20 wins both times) at about .520.  We might be able to go a little lower this year, but that's what we're looking at.

[KnightSlappy]

My very unprofessional opinion. I've come to realize, this year, we really need to lower our expectations of what it takes to get a Pool C spot. There are so many teams with so many losses this year. I mean, Middlebury has 10 losses and they are regionally ranked.

Right now, it's looking like this fact will make it easier to project Pool C bids. Instead of trying to pick between an .820 team with questionable SOS and a .690 team with a good SOS, we're mostly going to be looking at teams in the .750 / .530 range. From there it's easier to make a 0.030 =  2 games (though I cringe every time we mix rate stats and counting stats on that equivalency, I would prefer .030 SOS = .080 WP).

[HOPEful]

...Great Lakes
Mount Union could give themselves an opportunity to grab a Ppol C slot by knocking off JCU in the semis. That's a tall order, and then lose to another RRO in the Final....

They beat them a week ago as part of JCUs 3 game losing streak. Don't really understand how JCU is still ahead of both OWU and Hope after that. I would think a lot of fans from OWU will be rooting for the Raiders and I can tell you us Dutch will be rooting for both Mount Union and Denison or Wooster/Hiram.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

...Great Lakes
Mount Union could give themselves an opportunity to grab a Ppol C slot by knocking off JCU in the semis. That's a tall order, and then lose to another RRO in the Final....

They beat them a week ago as part of JCUs 3 game losing streak. Don't really understand how JCU is still ahead of both OWU and Hope after that. I would think a lot of fans from OWU will be rooting for the Raiders and I can tell you us Dutch will be rooting for both Mount Union and Denison or Wooster/Hiram.

Don't think like D1 who has a "what have you done the last ten games?" scenario. You still have to look at the overall resume of the season.

Case in point, NYU women are still very highly ranked despite the fact they have lost six straight games. Why? Because they have an SOS of .615 and they have a winning vRRO. Their six losses have come to four regionally ranked opponents, three of which they had already beaten earlier in the season. Their lone sweep is the team ranked ahead of them in the East Region. It doesn't matter what NYU is doing now when a game in November counts as much as a game in February.

It doesn't matter that JCU lost three straight when they had created a lot of buffer room to begin with.

[fantastic50]

Disclaimer: The following represents just one math geek's best guesses!
55 teams in Pool C contention
44 43 bids currently available to this group (after DeSales' loss in the LEC semis Wed. night)
Within each category, teams are listed from (perceived) strongest Pool C contenders to weakest.
All data is from the NCAA & Matt Snyder
http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/


Locks (18)
St. Thomas 23-2, 23-2 (MIAC, Pool A) 0.920/0.554/10-0, WE#1
Benedictine 25-0, 25-0 (NATHC, Pool A) 1.000/0.523/4-0, CE#1
Augustana 24-1, 24-1 (CCIW, Pool A) 0.960/0.530/3-1, CE#2
Christopher Newport 24-1, 24-1 (CAC, Pool A) 0.960/0.530/4-1, MA#1
Marietta 24-2, 24-2 (OAC, Pool A) 0.923/0.544/5-2, GL#1
North Central (Ill.) 19-6, 18-6 (CCIW, Pool C) 0.750/0.594/3-6, CE#4
Amherst 21-4, 21-4 (NESCAC, Pool C) 0.840/0.559/4-1, NE#1
Susquehanna 23-3, 21-3 (LAND, Pool A) 0.875/0.543/4-2, MA#2
St. Norbert 21-2, 21-2 (MWC, Pool A) 0.913/0.526/2-1, CE#3
Whitworth 24-1, 23-1 (NWC, Pool A) 0.958/0.505/1-1, WE#2
Plattsburgh State 21-4, 21-4 (SUNYAC, Pool A) 0.840/0.546/4-2, EA#1
Hope 23-2, 21-1 (MIAA, Pool A) 0.955/0.499/1-1, GL#4
Tufts 20-5, 20-5 (NESCAC, Pool C) 0.800/0.555/3-4, NE#3
John Carroll 23-3, 23-3 (OAC, Pool C) 0.885/0.522/2-2, GL#3
Ohio Wesleyan 23-3, 23-3 (NCAC, Pool A) 0.885/0.521/3-2, GL#2
Catholic 21-5, 21-5 (LAND, Pool C) 0.808/0.548/4-2, MA#4
Trinity (Conn.) 19-6, 18-6 (NESCAC, Pool A) 0.750/0.563/2-4, NE#2
Salisbury 20-5, 20-5 (CAC, Pool C) 0.800/0.545/4-2, MA#3

Likely (6)
Emory 17-7, 16-7 (UAA, Pool A) 0.696/0.583/4-4, SO#3
Rochester 17-7, 17-6 (UAA, Pool C) 0.739/0.562/3-3, EA#2
Wooster 20-6, 19-6 (NCAC, Pool C) 0.760/0.555/2-4, GL#6
Babson 19-5, 19-5 (NEWMAC, Pool A) 0.792/0.538/3-3, NE#4
Alma 19-6, 19-6 (MIAA, Pool C) 0.760/0.550/3-4, GL#5
Whitman 22-3, 21-3 (NWC, Pool C) 0.875/0.505/1-2, WE#3

Bubble (19)
Stockton 20-6, 20-5 (NJAC, Pool A) 0.800/0.540/3-3, AT#2
North Carolina Wesleyan 19-6, 15-4 (USAC, Pool A) 0.789/0.521/1-1, SO#5
Chicago 17-7, 16-7 (UAA, Pool C) 0.696/0.560/2-6, CE#6
Scranton 19-7, 18-7 (LAND, Pool C) 0.720/0.555/2-4, MA#5
Carroll 19-4, 19-4 (MWC, Pool C) 0.826/0.509/0-2, CE#8
LaGrange 18-7, 15-6 (USAC, Pool C) 0.714/0.538/2-2, SO#6
Elmhurst 20-5, 20-5 (CCIW, Pool C) 0.800/0.520/2-4, CE#5
Lynchburg 19-6, 19-6 (ODAC, Pool A) 0.760/0.534/3-2, SO#2
Johnson and Wales 24-2, 23-2 (GNAC, Pool A) 0.920/0.472/1-0, NE#6
Virginia Wesleyan 17-8, 17-8 (ODAC, Pool C) 0.680/0.562/4-4, SO#4
St. John Fisher 20-5, 20-5 (E8, Pool A) 0.800/0.516/1-0, EA#4
Texas Lutheran 19-6, 19-6 (SCAC, Pool A) 0.760/0.531/3-0, SO#1
New York University 19-5, 19-5 (UAA, Pool C) 0.792/0.513/3-3, EA#3
WPI 20-5, 20-5 (NEWMAC, Pool C) 0.800/0.513/5-2, NE#5
Aurora 20-5, 19-5 (NATHC, Pool C) 0.792/0.509/1-2, CE#7
DeSales 19-7, 19-6 (MACF, Pool A) 0.760/0.523/0-2, AT#3
Oswego State 19-7, 19-7 (SUNYAC, Pool C) 0.731/0.538/5-2, EA#5
Franklin and Marshall 20-5, 20-5 (CC, Pool A) 0.800/0.507/1-0, MA#6
Eastern Connecticut 18-8, 18-8 (LEC, Pool A) 0.692/0.547/1-4, NE#7

Longshots (12)
East Texas Baptist 20-5, 17-5 (ASC, Pool A) 0.773/0.512/0-2, SO#7
Brockport 17-9, 17-9 (SUNYAC, Pool C) 0.654/0.561/4-5, EA#
St. Johns 19-7, 18-7 (MIAC, Pool C) 0.720/0.529/4-4, WE#4
SUNY Geneseo 17-9, 17-8 (SUNYAC, Pool C) 0.680/0.541/1-4, ea#6
Brooklyn 21-6, 21-6 (CUNYAC, Pool A) 0.778/0.506/4-2, AT#4
Bethel 18-8, 18-8 (MIAC, Pool C) 0.692/0.533/4-5, WE#7
Mount Union 18-8, 17-8 (OAC, Pool C) 0.680/0.533/2-4, GL#7
Hiram 19-7, 19-6 (NCAC, Pool C) 0.760/0.501/2-2, GL#8
Roanoke 19-6, 18-6 (ODAC, Pool C) 0.750/0.499/1-2, SO#8
MIT 19-6, 19-6 (NEWMAC, Pool C) 0.760/0.497/2-3, ne#8
New Jersey City 18-8, 18-8 (NJAC, Pool C) 0.692/0.524/4-2, AT#1
St. Olaf 16-9, 16-9 (MIAC, Pool C) 0.640/0.538/2-6, WE#5


Conference tournaments with possible bubble-bursters
(Pool C contenders noted)

Thursday
ASC: East Texas Baptist (longshot) in quarters Thurs., but probably a one-bid league
CAC: Christopher Newport (lock), Salisbury (lock) in semis Thurs.
GNAC: Johnson & Wales (bubble) in semis Thurs.
NWC: Whitworth (lock), Whitman (likely) in semis Thurs.
OAC: Marietta (lock); Mt Union (longshot) at John Carroll (lock) in semis Thurs.

Friday
Centennial: Franklin & Marshall (bubble) in semis Fri.
CUNYAC: Brooklyn (longshot) in final Fri., but probably a one-bid league
CCIW: Augustana (lock); North Central (lock) vs Elmhurst (bubble) in semis Fri.
Empire 8: St John Fisher (bubble) in semis Fri.
MIAA: Hope (lock), Alma (likely) in semis Fri.
MIAC: Bethel (unlikely) at St thomas (lock); St John's (longshot) vs Bethel (longshot) in semis Fri.
Midwest: St Norbert (lock), Carroll (bubble) in semis Fri.
NATHC: Benedictine (lock), Aurora (bubble) in semis Fri.
NCAC: Ohio Wesleyan (lock); Wooster (likely) vs Hiram (longshot) in semis Fri.
ODAC: Lynchburg (bubble), Virginia Wesleyan (bubble), Roanoke (longshot) in quarters Fri.
SUNYAC: Oswego St (bubble) at Plattsburgh St (lock); Brockport in semis Fri.
USAC: NC Wesleyan (bubble), LaGrange (bubble) in quarters Fri.

Saturday
LEC: E. Connecticut (bubble) in semis Sat., but probably a one-bid league
NESCAC: Trinity (lock); Amherst (lock) vs Tufts (lock) in semis Sat.
NEWMAC: Babson (likely); wPI (bubble) vs MIT (longshot) in semis Sat.
NJAC: Stockton (bubble) in final Sat.; NJ City (longshot) eliminated
SCAC: Texas Lutheran (bubble) in semis Sat.
UAA: Emory (likely) at Rochester (likely) for AQ Sat.; Chicago (bubble), NYU (bubble) also contending

Safe conferences, with no bubble-bursters remaining
Landmark: Susquehanna (lock) at Catholic (lock) in finals; also Scranton (bubble)