Pool C

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Pacific Lutheran 81  Whitman 68

Whitman looks square on the back-end of the bubble to me now.

Eh... that was the last thing Whitman needed to do. Ouch. I agree... they had to get to the conference title game to secure things for themselves. SMH... may very well have squandered away another opportunity to make their first NCAA tournament.

[Greek Tragedy]

I'm not defending Whitman, but before we completely disregard them, is there someone better? Is their semifinal loss bad enough for St. John's to jump them? Will that loss put Whitman from "likely" to "longshot" and move the Johnnies from "longshot" to "likely"? St. John's SOS and vRRO is far superior than Whitman's, but they will still have 4 more losses.

Like I have said previously, we'll really going to have to temper our expectations this year as to who we think gets in and who doesn't. We could see 8-9 loss teams get Pool C bids.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I'm not defending Whitman, but before we completely disregard them, is there someone better? Is their semifinal loss bad enough for St. John's to jump them? Will that loss put Whitman from "likely" to "longshot" and move the Johnnies from "longshot" to "likely"? St. John's SOS and vRRO is far superior than Whitman's, but they will still have 4 more losses.

Like I have said previously, we'll really going to have to temper our expectations this year as to who we think gets in and who doesn't. We could see 8-9 loss teams get Pool C bids.

Yeah, but the Whitman SOS is right at .500. Historically, the committee has not put those teams in, unless they had stellar records.  Is 21-4 good enough with that SOS?  20 wins wasn't enough for F&M last year.  Although, looking back, Whitman's resume will be almost identical to Catholic's from last year, so you never know.  They're definitely on the bubble.

[KnightSlappy]

I still like Whitman. They should be on the board right away in the West and their .840 WP should be the best (or maybe 2nd) of the Pool C candidates. 0.509 SOS isn't great but won't eliminate them from contention. Same with 1-2 vRRO but geography limits their opportunities.

[KnightSlappy]

My very unprofessional opinion. I've come to realize, this year, we really need to lower our expectations of what it takes to get a Pool C spot. There are so many teams with so many losses this year. I mean, Middlebury has 10 losses and they are regionally ranked.

Right now, it's looking like this fact will make it easier to project Pool C bids. Instead of trying to pick between an .820 team with questionable SOS and a .690 team with a good SOS, we're mostly going to be looking at teams in the .750 / .530 range. From there it's easier to make a 0.030 =  2 games (though I cringe every time we mix rate stats and counting stats on that equivalency, I would prefer .030 SOS = .080 WP).

One thing I didn't articulate on Hoopsville last night .080 WP is 2 games on a 25-game schedule. That's where I came up with that.

[Greek Tragedy]

Updated through Thursday's games

Teams in BOLD are conferences winners/leaders. An * means there's a tie. Pool A (Automatic qualifiers) will be BLUE once their conference tournaments are complete. Teams losing will be RED and will be considered Pool C.

ATL
WK3	WK2	WK1	Team	Schedule
#1	#1	#4	New Jersey City (NJAC)	LOST to TCNJ 92-82 in semis
#2	#2	#1	Stockton (NJAC)	WON vs Rutgers-Newark 95-75 in semis; vs TCNJ Final on Saturday
#3	#3	#5	DeSales (MACF)	LOST to Wilkes 72-62 in semis
#4	#5	#3	Brooklyn (CUNYAC)	WON vs Staten Island 78-69 in semis; WON vs Baruch 76-67 in Final
#5			Lehman (CUNYAC)	LOST to Baruch 80-64 in semis
#6	#4	#2	Staten Island (CUNYAC)	LOST to Brooklyn 78-69 in semis
#7	#6	#6	Rutgers-Newark (NJAC)	WON vs William Paterson 78-52 in QFs; LOST at Stockton 95-75 in semis
			DROPPING OUT
	#7	#7	Delaware Valley (MACF)

CENT
WK3	WK2	WK1	Team	Schedule
#1	#1	#1	Benedictine (NACC)	WON vs Marian 91-82; vs MSOE in Final on Sunday
#2	#2	#2	Augustana (CCIW)	WON vs Illinois Wesleyan 83-74; vs Elmhurst in Final on Saturday
#3	#3	#3	St.Norbert (MWC)	WON vs Lake Forest 63-48; vs Carroll in Final on Saturday
#4	#4	#4	NCC (CCIW)	LOST to Elmhurst 60-58 in semis
#5	#5	#5	Elmhurst (CCIW)	WON vs North Central 60-58; at Augustana in Final on Saturday
#6	#6	#7	Chicago (UAA)	vs Washington U. 2/27
#7	#7	#6	Aurora (NACC)	LOST to MSOE in semis 100-96
#8	#8	#8	Carroll (MWC)	WON vs Ripon 58-55; at St. Norbert in Final on Saturday
EAST
WK3	WK2	WK1	Team	Schedule
#1	#1	#1	Platts. St. (SUNYAC)	LOST to Oswego St 81-74 in semis
#2	#2	#2	*Rochester (UAA)	vs Emory 2/27
#3	#6		NYU (UAA)	at Brandeis 2/27
#4		#6	St. John Fisher (E8)	WON vs Stevens 85-62; vs Hartwick in Final Saturday
#5	#5	#4	Oswego St. (SUNYAC)	WON vs SUNY Geneseo 75-59; WON at Platts. St. 81-74; at Cortland in Final on Saturday
#6	#3	#3	SUNY Geneseo (SUNYAC)	LOST to Oswego St. 75-59 in QFs
			DROPPING OUT
		#5	SUNY Oneonta (SUNYAC)
	#4		Brockport (SUNYAC)
GL
WK3	WK2	WK1	Team	Schedule
#1	#1	#2	Marietta (OAC)	WON vs Wilmington 93-78; Won vs Baldwin Wallace 91-66; vs John Carroll in Final Saturday
#2	#3	#3	Ohio Wesleyan (NCAC)	WON vs Wabash 100-80; LOST to Denison 95-85 in semis
#3	#2	#1	John Carroll (OAC)	WON vs Capital 83-70; WON vs Mount Union 93-74; at Marietta in Final on Saturday
#4	#5	#4	Hope (MIAA)	LOST to Trine 82-77 in semis
#5	#4	#5	Alma (MIAA)	WON vs Albion 77-64; vs Trine in Final on Saturday
#6	#6	#6	Wooster (NCAC)	WON vs Oberlin 78-63; WON vs Hiram 92-79; vs Denison in Final on Saturday
#7	#8	#7	Mount Union (OAC)	WON vs Heidelberg 102-96; LOST at John Carroll 93-74 in semis
#8	#7	#8	Hiram (NCAC)	WON vs Kenyon 95-87; LOST at Wooster 92-79 in semis
#9	#9		St. Vincent (PAC)	WON vs Chatham 80-65; WON vs Westminster 70-65; vs Thomas More in Final on Saturday
			DROPPING OUT
		#9	Trine (MIAA)
MA
WK3	WK2	WK1	Team	Schedule
#1	#1	#1	CNU (CAC)	WON vs St. Mary's 57-56; vs Salisbury in Final on Saturday
#2	#2	#2	*Susquehanna (LAND)	WON vs Scranton 77-72 in semis; vs Catholic in Final on Saturday
#3	#3	#3	Salisbury (CAC)	WON vs Mary Washington    83-78; at Christopher Newport in Final on Saturday
#4	#4	#4	*Catholic (LAND)	WON vs Juniata 79-66; vs Susquehanna in Final on Saturday
#5	#5	#6	Scranton (LAND)	LOST to Susquehanna 77-72 in semis
#6	#6	#5	Frank & Marshall (CC)	WON vs Gettysburg 74-63; vs Swarthmore in Final on Saturday

NE
WK3	WK2	WK1	Team	Schedule
#1	#1	#1	Amherst (NECAC)	vs Tufts in semis 2/27
#2	#2	#2	Trinity (NESCAC)	vs Middlebury in semis 2/27
#3	#3	#3	Tufts (NESCAC)	at Amherst in semis 2/27
#4	#4	#4	Babson (NEWMAC)	vs Emerson in semis 2/27
#5	#5	#6	WPI (NEWMAC)	vs MIT in semis 2/27
#6	#8	#9	J & W (GNAC)	WON vs St. Joseph's 73-36; WON vs Emmanuel 97-79; vs Albertus Magnus in Final on Saturday
#7	#6	#7	E. Conn. (LEC)	WON vs Mass-Boston 93-65; vs Mass-Dartmouth in semis 2/27
#8	#9	#8	MIT (NEWMAC)	at WPI in semis 2/27
#9			Middlebury (NESCAC)	at Trinity in semis 2/27
#10	#10	#10	S. Verm. (NECC)	WON vs Regis 73-68; vs Becker in Final on Saturday
#11	#11	#11	Nichols (CCC)	WON vs W. New England 10768; LOST to Endicott 82-80 in semis
			DROPPING OUT
	#7	#5	Wesleyan (NESCAC)
SOUTH
WK3	WK2	WK1	Team	Schedule
#1	#1	#2	Texas Lutheran (SCAC)	vs TBD in semis 2/27
#2	#4	#4	*Lynchburg (ODAC)	WON vs Hampden-Sydney 90-67; vs Emory and Henry in semis on Saturday
#3	#3	#1	*Emory (UAA)	at Rochester 2/27
#4	#2	#3	*Virg. Wes. (ODAC)	WON vs Randolph-Macon 78-52; vs Randolph in semis on Saturday
#5	#8	#8	N.C. Wesleyan (USAC)	WON vs Averett 81-66; LOST to LaGrange 99-87 in semis
#6	#5	#5	LaGrange (USAC)	WON vs Ferrum 77-73; WON at N.C. Wesleyan 99-87; at Covenant in Final on Saturday
#7	#6	#6	ETBU (ASC)	WON vs Mary Harin-Baylor 70-64; LOST to Louisiana College 56-44 in semis
#8	#7	#7	Roanoke (ODAC)	LOST to Randolph 74-62 in QFs
WEST
WK3	WK2	WK1	Team	Schedule
#1	#1	#1	St. Thomas (MIAC)	WON vs Bethel 63-46; vs St. Olaf in Final on Sunday
#2	#2	#2	Whitworth (NWC)	WON vs Puget Sound 75-58; vs Pacific Lutheran in Final on Saturday
#3	#3	#3	Whitman (NWC)	LOST to Pacific Lutheran 82-68 in semis
#4	#4	#6	St. John's (MIAC)	WON vs Augsburg 99-86; LOST at St. Olaf 91-80 in semis
#5	#5		St.Olaf (MIAC)	WON vs St. John's 91-80; at St. Thomas in Final on Sunday
#6	#6	#4	Concordia-Moorhead (MIAC)	LOST to Bethel 67-62 in QFs
#7		#5	Bethel (MIAC)	WON at Concordia-Moorhead 67-62; lost at St. Thomas 63-46 in semis
			DROPPING OUT
		#7	Dubuque (IIAC)
	#7		Augsburg (MIAC)

[/quote]

[AO]

I still like Whitman. They should be on the board right away in the West and their .840 WP should be the best (or maybe 2nd) of the Pool C candidates. 0.509 SOS isn't great but won't eliminate them from contention. Same with 1-2 vRRO but geography limits their opportunities.

I don't remember hearing any committee chair talk about forgiving a team's RRO due to geography.  We have heard from a previous chair that he devalued a good SoS because they felt the majority of the SoS advantage was derived from the conference schedule.

[Greek Tragedy]

Well, one Pool A slot will be determined tonight as Baruch takes on Brooklyn at CCNY for the CUNYAC title. If Brooklyn loses, they'll be on the Pool C fence. I feel they're in regardless, but others may have a different opinion. Everyone, except Baruch, will be cheering for the Bulldogs.

[KnightSlappy]

I still like Whitman. They should be on the board right away in the West and their .840 WP should be the best (or maybe 2nd) of the Pool C candidates. 0.509 SOS isn't great but won't eliminate them from contention. Same with 1-2 vRRO but geography limits their opportunities.

I don't remember hearing any committee chair talk about forgiving a team's RRO due to geography.  We have heard from a previous chair that he devalued a good SoS because they felt the majority of the SoS advantage was derived from the conference schedule.

I don't mean the low RRO totals would be forgiven, but if the committee talks about realities it wasn't like Whitman was ducking anyone nearby. They even got a matchup with Tufts in a California tournament (though they lost). They'll certainly be rooting for the Jumbos to do well in the NESCAC and boost that SOS.

Compare them to St. John's (4-4 vRRO) who didn't play a single RRO in the non-conference.

[KnightSlappy]

Well, one Pool A slot will be determined tonight as Baruch takes on Brooklyn at CCNY for the CUNYAC title. If Brooklyn loses, they'll be on the Pool C fence. I feel they're in regardless, but others may have a different opinion. Everyone, except Baruch, will be cheering for the Bulldogs.

I don't really love Brooklyn's Pool C chances. If they lose tonight they'll be:

0.750/ 0.510/ 4-2

I certainly think they fall below Whitman:

0.840/ 0.509/ 1-2

Brooklyn probably also loses a few RROs when Lehman and/or Staten Island drop out of the final rankings.

[Greek Tragedy]

Well, St. John's did play two NWC teams, just the wrong ones. We also have to remember they play 20 conference games, leaving just 5 nonconference games to play around with. It's not like they have 11-15 NC games to schedule.

[Greek Tragedy]

Or maybe both Staten Island and Lehman stay in. Remember, basically everyone is taking a loss before the end of the weekend.

[KnightSlappy]

Or maybe both Staten Island and Lehman stay in. Remember, basically everyone is taking a loss before the end of the weekend.

Not necessarily so. Delaware Valley (0.708/0.506) could win the MACF. Old Westbury (.692/.483) would threaten to jump back in if they win the Skyline. Also the CSAC winner could jump in as well (Gwynedd Mercy (.800/.484) / Neumann(0.731/.470)).

Lehman is sitting .680/.491, so the only thing keeping them there is the weakness of the region.

[fantastic50]

From there it's easier to make a 0.030 =  2 games (though I cringe every time we mix rate stats and counting stats on that equivalency, I would prefer .030 SOS = .080 WP).

This equivalency struck me a few days ago, and it says that a given amount of SOS variation matters roughly two-and-a-half times as much as the same amount of WP variation.  In RPI, SOS variation is three times more heavily weighted, since RPI = 1/4 * WP + 3/4 * SOS.  This says to me that RPI is still a good estimate of team strength, but that WP is slightly more valued (and SOS slightly less so) than what RPI would indicate.

A while back, I graphed WP vs SOS for the Pool C teams and near-misses (the first 20-25 teams out) over the last three seasons, to see what trends are visible there.  Aside from the inclusion of Bowdoin in 2014, the thing that struck me is that the committee appears to prefer teams that have a solid WP & solid SOS, over those that are elite in one and mediocre in the other (great record, weak schedule or mediocre record, brutal schedule).  It's very tough to get in as a Pool C with a WP below .700 or SOS below .500.  Emory (.696/.583) and Johnson & Wales (.923/.473) may be exceptions if they don't grab Pool A berths.

For example, if .030 SOS = .080 WP, then the following are all equivalent (with examples of 2015 teams roughly in this vicinity)...
A) 1.000/.430 (Lancaster Bible - unranked)
B) .840/.490 (Nichols - ranked but out)
C) .800/.505 (St John Fisher, NYU, F&M - all bubble)
D) .760/.520 (DeSales - bubble)
E) .720/.535 (LaGrange, Oswego St - both bubble)
F) .680/.550 (Brockport - longshot)
G) .640/.565 (UW-Eau Claire, Middlebury - both unranked)

There is a clear preference toward the combinations in the middle, as opposed to those at either end of the spectrum. 

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I don't think we've ever had a Pool C selection below .667 winning percentage or a .500 SOS.  Those, historically, are the drop dead lines.