Pool C

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) · February 26, 2016, 04:05:07 PM

Carroll just won its semifinal against Ripon. Three seconds left, down by three Ripon set up one of the best inbounds plays I've ever seen. They had, I think, three decoys running off screens, which left a shooter wide open behind the three point line, just to the left of center. Easy pass, open look. They missed it, but that was one well-constructed play.

ronk · February 26, 2016, 04:06:32 PM

Quote from: fantastic50 on February 26, 2016, 12:41:28 PM
Disclaimer: The following represents just one math geek's best guesses!
55 teams in Pool C contention
43 bids currently available to this group
Within each category, teams are listed from (perceived) strongest Pool C contenders to weakest.
All data is from the NCAA & Matt Snyder
http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/

Locks (18)
St. Thomas 23-2, 23-2 (MIAC, Pool A) 0.920/0.556/10-0, WE#1
Benedictine 25-0, 25-0 (NATHC, Pool A) 1.000/0.523/4-0, CE#1
Marietta 25-2, 25-2 (OAC, Pool A) 0.926/0.546/5-2, GL#1
Christopher Newport 25-1, 25-1 (CAC, Pool A) 0.962/0.531/4-1, MA#1
Augustana 24-1, 24-1 (CCIW, Pool A) 0.960/0.527/3-1, CE#2
North Central (Ill.) 19-6, 18-6 (CCIW, Pool C) 0.750/0.593/3-6, CE#4
Amherst 21-4, 21-4 (NESCAC, Pool C) 0.840/0.558/4-1, NE#1
Susquehanna 23-3, 21-3 (LAND, Pool C) 0.875/0.543/4-2, MA#2
St. Norbert 21-2, 21-2 (MWC, Pool A) 0.913/0.526/2-1, CE#3
Whitworth 25-1, 24-1 (NWC, Pool A) 0.960/0.507/1-1, WE#2
Plattsburgh State 21-4, 21-4 (SUNYAC, Pool A) 0.840/0.546/4-2, EA#1
John Carroll 24-3, 24-3 (OAC, Pool C) 0.889/0.526/3-2, GL#3
Hope 23-2, 21-1 (MIAA, Pool A) 0.955/0.499/1-1, GL#4
Tufts 20-5, 20-5 (NESCAC, Pool C) 0.800/0.555/3-4, NE#3
Ohio Wesleyan 23-3, 23-3 (NCAC, Pool A) 0.885/0.521/3-2, GL#2
Catholic 21-5, 21-5 (LAND, Pool A) 0.808/0.549/4-2, MA#4
Salisbury 21-5, 21-5 (CAC, Pool C) 0.808/0.548/4-2, MA#3
Trinity (Conn.) 19-6, 18-6 (NESCAC, Pool A) 0.750/0.563/2-4, NE#2

Likely (6, including Stockton moving up)
Emory 17-7, 16-7 (UAA, Pool A) 0.696/0.583/4-4, SO#3
Wooster 20-6, 19-6 (NCAC, Pool C) 0.760/0.556/2-4, GL#6
Stockton 20-6, 20-5 (NJAC, Pool A) 0.800/0.540/3-3, AT#2
Rochester 17-7, 17-6 (UAA, Pool C) 0.739/0.562/3-3, EA#2
Alma 19-6, 19-6 (MIAA, Pool C) 0.760/0.550/3-4, GL#5
Babson 19-5, 19-5 (NEWMAC, Pool A) 0.792/0.537/3-3, NE#4

Bubble (19, including Whitman moving down)
Scranton 19-7, 18-7 (LAND, Pool C) 0.720/0.556/2-4, MA#5
Whitman 22-4, 21-4 (NWC, Pool C) 0.840/0.509/1-2, WE#3
Texas Lutheran 19-6, 19-6 (SCAC, Pool A) 0.760/0.531/3-0, SO#1
Chicago 17-7, 16-7 (UAA, Pool C) 0.696/0.560/2-6, CE#6
Johnson and Wales 25-2, 24-2 (GNAC, Pool A) 0.923/0.473/1-0, NE#6
Elmhurst 20-5, 20-5 (CCIW, Pool C) 0.800/0.518/2-4, CE#5
Carroll 19-4, 19-4 (MWC, Pool C) 0.826/0.509/0-2, CE#8
Lynchburg 19-6, 19-6 (ODAC, Pool A) 0.760/0.533/3-2, SO#2
Virginia Wesleyan 17-8, 17-8 (ODAC, Pool C) 0.680/0.562/4-4, SO#4
North Carolina Wesleyan 20-6, 16-4 (USAC, Pool A) 0.800/0.523/1-1, SO#5
St. John Fisher 20-5, 20-5 (E8, Pool A) 0.800/0.516/1-0, EA#4
WPI 20-5, 20-5 (NEWMAC, Pool C) 0.800/0.513/5-2, NE#5
New York University 19-5, 19-5 (UAA, Pool C) 0.792/0.513/3-3, EA#3
Oswego State 19-7, 19-7 (SUNYAC, Pool C) 0.731/0.538/5-2, EA#5
LaGrange 19-7, 16-6 (USAC, Pool C) 0.727/0.537/2-2, SO#6
DeSales 19-7, 19-6 (MACF, Pool C) 0.760/0.524/0-2, AT#3
Eastern Connecticut 18-8, 18-8 (LEC, Pool A) 0.692/0.548/1-4, NE#7
Franklin and Marshall 20-5, 20-5 (CC, Pool A) 0.800/0.507/1-0, MA#6
Aurora 20-5, 19-5 (NATHC, Pool C) 0.792/0.509/1-2, CE#7

Longshots (12)
Brockport 17-9, 17-9 (SUNYAC, Pool C) 0.654/0.561/4-5, EA#x
East Texas Baptist 21-5, 18-5 (ASC, Pool A) 0.783/0.509/0-2, SO#7
Brooklyn 21-6, 21-6 (CUNYAC, Pool A) 0.778/0.508/4-2, AT#4
St. Johns 19-7, 18-7 (MIAC, Pool C) 0.720/0.529/4-4, WE#4
SUNY Geneseo 17-9, 17-8 (SUNYAC, Pool C) 0.680/0.541/1-4, ea#6
Bethel 18-8, 18-8 (MIAC, Pool C) 0.692/0.534/4-5, WE#7
Hiram 19-7, 19-6 (NCAC, Pool C) 0.760/0.501/2-2, GL#8
New Jersey City 18-8, 18-8 (NJAC, Pool C) 0.692/0.524/4-2, AT#1
MIT 19-6, 19-6 (NEWMAC, Pool C) 0.760/0.497/2-3, NE#8
Roanoke 19-6, 18-6 (ODAC, Pool C) 0.750/0.499/1-2, SO#8
St. Olaf 16-9, 16-9 (MIAC, Pool C) 0.640/0.539/2-6, WE#5
Mount Union 18-9, 17-9 (OAC, Pool C) 0.654/0.545/2-5, GL#7

So far this week, the bubble looks pillowy soft. For that reason, I can't yet bring myself to drop some teams off the board, even with numbers that would make their chances completely nil.

Conference tournaments with possible bubble-bursters
(Pool C contenders noted)

Friday
ASC: East Texas Baptist (longshot) in semis Fri., but probably a one-bid league
Centennial: Franklin & Marshall (bubble) in semis Fri.
CUNYAC: Brooklyn (longshot) in final Fri. vs Baruch (out), but probably a one-bid league
CCIW: Augustana (lock); North Central (lock) vs Elmhurst (bubble) in semis Fri.
Empire 8: St John Fisher (bubble) in semis Fri.
MIAA: Hope (lock), Alma (likely) in semis Fri.
MIAC: Bethel (unlikely) at St thomas (lock); St John's (longshot) vs Bethel (longshot) in semis Fri.
Midwest: St Norbert (lock), Carroll (bubble) in semis Fri.
NATHC: Benedictine (lock), Aurora (bubble) in semis Fri.
NCAC: Ohio Wesleyan (lock); Wooster (likely) vs Hiram (longshot) in semis Fri.
ODAC: Lynchburg (bubble), Virginia Wesleyan (bubble), Roanoke (longshot) in quarters Fri.
SUNYAC: Oswego St (bubble) at Plattsburgh St (lock); Brockport in semis Fri., also Geneseo (longshot)
USAC: NC Wesleyan (bubble), LaGrange (bubble) in quarters Fri.

Saturday
GNAC: Johnson & Wales (bubble) in final Sat. vs. Albertus Magnus
LEC: E. Connecticut (bubble) in semis Sat., but probably a one-bid league
NESCAC: Trinity (lock); Amherst (lock) vs Tufts (lock) in semis Sat.
NEWMAC: Babson (likely); wPI (bubble) vs MIT (longshot) in semis Sat.
NJAC: Stockton (likely) in final Sat.; NJ City (longshot) eliminated
NWC: Whitworth (lock) in final Sat. vs Pacific Lutheran (out); also Whitman (bubble)
SCAC: Texas Lutheran (bubble) in semis Sat.
UAA: Emory (likely) at Rochester (likely) for AQ Sat.; Chicago (bubble), NYU (bubble) also contending

Conferences with no bubble-bursters remaining
CAC: Salisbury (lock) at Christopher Newport (lock) in finals
Landmark: Susquehanna (lock) at Catholic (lock) in finals; also Scranton (bubble)
OAC: John Carroll (lock) at Marietta (lock) in finals; also Mt Union (longshot)

I suspect a lot will change in the next 12 hours!

Does this mean that our pollsters don't weigh this criteria in making Elmhurst #13 in the top 25?

fantastic50 · February 26, 2016, 04:11:54 PM

"For those keeping score at home," here's the slate of bubble-relevant games today...

1:00 ODAC quarters - Lynchburg (bubble) 90-67 over Hampden-Syndney (out)
2:30 MWC semis - Carroll (bubble) 58-55 over Ripon (out)
3:00 MIAA semis - Alma (likely) vs Albion (out)
5:30 NCAC semis - Wooster (likely) vs Hiram (longshot)
5:30 SUNYAC semis - Brockport (longshot) vs Cortland (out)
6:00 ASC semis - East Texas Baptist (longshot) vs Louisiana College (out)
6:00 CCIW semis - North Central (lock) vs Elmhurst (bubble)
6:00 E8 semis - St John Fisher (bubble) hosting Stevens (out)
6:00 ODAC quarters - Virginia Wesleyan (bubble) vs Randolph-Macon (out)
7:00 MWC semis - St Norbery (lock) hosting Lake Forest (out)
7:00 USA semis - NC Wesleyan (bubble) vs LaGrange (bubble)
7:30 MIAA semis - Hope (lock) hosting Trine (out)
7:30 SUNYAC semis - Plattsburgh State (lock) hosting Oswego State (bubble)
8:00 Centennial semis - Franklin & Marshall (bubble) hosting Gettysburg (out)
8:00 CCIW semis - Augustana (lock) hosting Illinois Wesleyan (out)
8:00 MIAC semis - St Thomas (lock) hosting Bethel (longshot)
8:00 MIAC semis - St Olaf (longshot) hosting St Johns (longshot)
8:00 NACC semis - Benedictine (lock) hosting Marian (out)
8:00 NACC semis - Aurora (bubble) hosting Milwaukee Engineering (out)
8:00 ODAC quarters - Roanoke (longshot) vs Randolph (out)
8:30 NCAC semis - Ohio Wesleyan (lock) vs Denison (out)
8:30 CUNYAC final - Brooklyn (longshot) vs Baruch (out)

Greek Tragedy · February 26, 2016, 04:41:05 PM

Quote from: gordonmann on February 26, 2016, 03:50:12 PM
QuoteJust realized I had too many NESCAC teams in

No such thing!

East coast bias!

ronk · February 26, 2016, 04:59:52 PM

Quote from: fantastic50 on February 26, 2016, 12:41:28 PM
Disclaimer: The following represents just one math geek's best guesses!
55 teams in Pool C contention
43 bids currently available to this group
Within each category, teams are listed from (perceived) strongest Pool C contenders to weakest.
All data is from the NCAA & Matt Snyder
http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/

Locks (18)
St. Thomas 23-2, 23-2 (MIAC, Pool A) 0.920/0.556/10-0, WE#1
Benedictine 25-0, 25-0 (NATHC, Pool A) 1.000/0.523/4-0, CE#1
Marietta 25-2, 25-2 (OAC, Pool A) 0.926/0.546/5-2, GL#1
Christopher Newport 25-1, 25-1 (CAC, Pool A) 0.962/0.531/4-1, MA#1
Augustana 24-1, 24-1 (CCIW, Pool A) 0.960/0.527/3-1, CE#2
North Central (Ill.) 19-6, 18-6 (CCIW, Pool C) 0.750/0.593/3-6, CE#4
Amherst 21-4, 21-4 (NESCAC, Pool C) 0.840/0.558/4-1, NE#1
Susquehanna 23-3, 21-3 (LAND, Pool C) 0.875/0.543/4-2, MA#2
St. Norbert 21-2, 21-2 (MWC, Pool A) 0.913/0.526/2-1, CE#3
Whitworth 25-1, 24-1 (NWC, Pool A) 0.960/0.507/1-1, WE#2
Plattsburgh State 21-4, 21-4 (SUNYAC, Pool A) 0.840/0.546/4-2, EA#1
John Carroll 24-3, 24-3 (OAC, Pool C) 0.889/0.526/3-2, GL#3
Hope 23-2, 21-1 (MIAA, Pool A) 0.955/0.499/1-1, GL#4
Tufts 20-5, 20-5 (NESCAC, Pool C) 0.800/0.555/3-4, NE#3
Ohio Wesleyan 23-3, 23-3 (NCAC, Pool A) 0.885/0.521/3-2, GL#2
Catholic 21-5, 21-5 (LAND, Pool A) 0.808/0.549/4-2, MA#4
Salisbury 21-5, 21-5 (CAC, Pool C) 0.808/0.548/4-2, MA#3
Trinity (Conn.) 19-6, 18-6 (NESCAC, Pool A) 0.750/0.563/2-4, NE#2

Likely (6, including Stockton moving up)
Emory 17-7, 16-7 (UAA, Pool A) 0.696/0.583/4-4, SO#3
Wooster 20-6, 19-6 (NCAC, Pool C) 0.760/0.556/2-4, GL#6
Stockton 20-6, 20-5 (NJAC, Pool A) 0.800/0.540/3-3, AT#2
Rochester 17-7, 17-6 (UAA, Pool C) 0.739/0.562/3-3, EA#2
Alma 19-6, 19-6 (MIAA, Pool C) 0.760/0.550/3-4, GL#5
Babson 19-5, 19-5 (NEWMAC, Pool A) 0.792/0.537/3-3, NE#4

Bubble (19, including Whitman moving down)
Scranton 19-7, 18-7 (LAND, Pool C) 0.720/0.556/2-4, MA#5
Whitman 22-4, 21-4 (NWC, Pool C) 0.840/0.509/1-2, WE#3
Texas Lutheran 19-6, 19-6 (SCAC, Pool A) 0.760/0.531/3-0, SO#1
Chicago 17-7, 16-7 (UAA, Pool C) 0.696/0.560/2-6, CE#6
Johnson and Wales 25-2, 24-2 (GNAC, Pool A) 0.923/0.473/1-0, NE#6
Elmhurst 20-5, 20-5 (CCIW, Pool C) 0.800/0.518/2-4, CE#5
Carroll 19-4, 19-4 (MWC, Pool C) 0.826/0.509/0-2, CE#8
Lynchburg 19-6, 19-6 (ODAC, Pool A) 0.760/0.533/3-2, SO#2
Virginia Wesleyan 17-8, 17-8 (ODAC, Pool C) 0.680/0.562/4-4, SO#4
North Carolina Wesleyan 20-6, 16-4 (USAC, Pool A) 0.800/0.523/1-1, SO#5
St. John Fisher 20-5, 20-5 (E8, Pool A) 0.800/0.516/1-0, EA#4
WPI 20-5, 20-5 (NEWMAC, Pool C) 0.800/0.513/5-2, NE#5
New York University 19-5, 19-5 (UAA, Pool C) 0.792/0.513/3-3, EA#3
Oswego State 19-7, 19-7 (SUNYAC, Pool C) 0.731/0.538/5-2, EA#5
LaGrange 19-7, 16-6 (USAC, Pool C) 0.727/0.537/2-2, SO#6
DeSales 19-7, 19-6 (MACF, Pool C) 0.760/0.524/0-2, AT#3
Eastern Connecticut 18-8, 18-8 (LEC, Pool A) 0.692/0.548/1-4, NE#7
Franklin and Marshall 20-5, 20-5 (CC, Pool A) 0.800/0.507/1-0, MA#6
Aurora 20-5, 19-5 (NATHC, Pool C) 0.792/0.509/1-2, CE#7

Longshots (12)
Brockport 17-9, 17-9 (SUNYAC, Pool C) 0.654/0.561/4-5, EA#x
East Texas Baptist 21-5, 18-5 (ASC, Pool A) 0.783/0.509/0-2, SO#7
Brooklyn 21-6, 21-6 (CUNYAC, Pool A) 0.778/0.508/4-2, AT#4
St. Johns 19-7, 18-7 (MIAC, Pool C) 0.720/0.529/4-4, WE#4
SUNY Geneseo 17-9, 17-8 (SUNYAC, Pool C) 0.680/0.541/1-4, ea#6
Bethel 18-8, 18-8 (MIAC, Pool C) 0.692/0.534/4-5, WE#7
Hiram 19-7, 19-6 (NCAC, Pool C) 0.760/0.501/2-2, GL#8
New Jersey City 18-8, 18-8 (NJAC, Pool C) 0.692/0.524/4-2, AT#1
MIT 19-6, 19-6 (NEWMAC, Pool C) 0.760/0.497/2-3, NE#8
Roanoke 19-6, 18-6 (ODAC, Pool C) 0.750/0.499/1-2, SO#8
St. Olaf 16-9, 16-9 (MIAC, Pool C) 0.640/0.539/2-6, WE#5
Mount Union 18-9, 17-9 (OAC, Pool C) 0.654/0.545/2-5, GL#7

So far this week, the bubble looks pillowy soft. For that reason, I can't yet bring myself to drop some teams off the board, even with numbers that would make their chances completely nil.

Conference tournaments with possible bubble-bursters
(Pool C contenders noted)

Friday
ASC: East Texas Baptist (longshot) in semis Fri., but probably a one-bid league
Centennial: Franklin & Marshall (bubble) in semis Fri.
CUNYAC: Brooklyn (longshot) in final Fri. vs Baruch (out), but probably a one-bid league
CCIW: Augustana (lock); North Central (lock) vs Elmhurst (bubble) in semis Fri.
Empire 8: St John Fisher (bubble) in semis Fri.
MIAA: Hope (lock), Alma (likely) in semis Fri.
MIAC: Bethel (unlikely) at St thomas (lock); St John's (longshot) vs Bethel (longshot) in semis Fri.
Midwest: St Norbert (lock), Carroll (bubble) in semis Fri.
NATHC: Benedictine (lock), Aurora (bubble) in semis Fri.
NCAC: Ohio Wesleyan (lock); Wooster (likely) vs Hiram (longshot) in semis Fri.
ODAC: Lynchburg (bubble), Virginia Wesleyan (bubble), Roanoke (longshot) in quarters Fri.
SUNYAC: Oswego St (bubble) at Plattsburgh St (lock); Brockport in semis Fri., also Geneseo (longshot)
USAC: NC Wesleyan (bubble), LaGrange (bubble) in quarters Fri.

Saturday
GNAC: Johnson & Wales (bubble) in final Sat. vs. Albertus Magnus
LEC: E. Connecticut (bubble) in semis Sat., but probably a one-bid league
NESCAC: Trinity (lock); Amherst (lock) vs Tufts (lock) in semis Sat.
NEWMAC: Babson (likely); wPI (bubble) vs MIT (longshot) in semis Sat.
NJAC: Stockton (likely) in final Sat.; NJ City (longshot) eliminated
NWC: Whitworth (lock) in final Sat. vs Pacific Lutheran (out); also Whitman (bubble)
SCAC: Texas Lutheran (bubble) in semis Sat.
UAA: Emory (likely) at Rochester (likely) for AQ Sat.; Chicago (bubble), NYU (bubble) also contending

Conferences with no bubble-bursters remaining
CAC: Salisbury (lock) at Christopher Newport (lock) in finals
Landmark: Susquehanna (lock) at Catholic (lock) in finals; also Scranton (bubble)
OAC: John Carroll (lock) at Marietta (lock) in finals; also Mt Union (longshot)

I suspect a lot will change in the next 12 hours!

Thanks for this effort and Knight Slappy's, also. Any chance that 1 similar run could be done for the women's side?

Flying Dutch Fan · February 26, 2016, 05:03:13 PM

Quote from: fantastic50 on February 26, 2016, 04:11:54 PM
"For those keeping score at home," here's the slate of bubble-relevant games today...

1:00 ODAC quarters - Lynchburg (bubble) 90-67 over Hampden-Syndney (out)
2:30 MWC semis - Carroll (bubble) 58-55 over Ripon (out)
3:00 MIAA semis - Alma (likely) vs Albion (out)
5:30 NCAC semis - Wooster (likely) vs Hiram (longshot)
5:30 SUNYAC semis - Brockport (longshot) vs Cortland (out)
6:00 ASC semis - East Texas Baptist (longshot) vs Louisiana College (out)
6:00 CCIW semis - North Central (lock) vs Elmhurst (bubble)
6:00 E8 semis - St John Fisher (bubble) hosting Stevens (out)
6:00 ODAC quarters - Virginia Wesleyan (bubble) vs Randolph-Macon (out)
7:00 MWC semis - St Norbery (lock) hosting Lake Forest (out)
7:00 USA semis - NC Wesleyan (bubble) vs LaGrange (bubble)
7:30 MIAA semis - Hope (lock) hosting Trine (out)
7:30 SUNYAC semis - Plattsburgh State (lock) hosting Oswego State (bubble)
8:00 Centennial semis - Franklin & Marshall (bubble) hosting Gettysburg (out)
8:00 CCIW semis - Augustana (lock) hosting Illinois Wesleyan (out)
8:00 MIAC semis - St Thomas (lock) hosting Bethel (longshot)
8:00 MIAC semis - St Olaf (longshot) hosting St Johns (longshot)
8:00 NACC semis - Benedictine (lock) hosting Marian (out)
8:00 NACC semis - Aurora (bubble) hosting Milwaukee Engineering (out)
8:00 ODAC quarters - Roanoke (longshot) vs Randolph (out)
8:30 NCAC semis - Ohio Wesleyan (lock) vs Denison (out)
8:30 CUNYAC final - Brooklyn (longshot) vs Baruch (out)

Alma 77 Albion 64 - no bubble pops

fantastic50 · February 26, 2016, 06:37:12 PM

Quote from: ronk on February 26, 2016, 04:59:52 PM
Quote from: fantastic50 on February 26, 2016, 12:41:28 PM
Disclaimer: The following represents just one math geek's best guesses!
55 teams in Pool C contention
43 bids currently available to this group
Within each category, teams are listed from (perceived) strongest Pool C contenders to weakest.
All data is from the NCAA & Matt Snyder
http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/

Locks (18)
St. Thomas 23-2, 23-2 (MIAC, Pool A) 0.920/0.556/10-0, WE#1
Benedictine 25-0, 25-0 (NATHC, Pool A) 1.000/0.523/4-0, CE#1
Marietta 25-2, 25-2 (OAC, Pool A) 0.926/0.546/5-2, GL#1
Christopher Newport 25-1, 25-1 (CAC, Pool A) 0.962/0.531/4-1, MA#1
Augustana 24-1, 24-1 (CCIW, Pool A) 0.960/0.527/3-1, CE#2
North Central (Ill.) 19-6, 18-6 (CCIW, Pool C) 0.750/0.593/3-6, CE#4
Amherst 21-4, 21-4 (NESCAC, Pool C) 0.840/0.558/4-1, NE#1
Susquehanna 23-3, 21-3 (LAND, Pool C) 0.875/0.543/4-2, MA#2
St. Norbert 21-2, 21-2 (MWC, Pool A) 0.913/0.526/2-1, CE#3
Whitworth 25-1, 24-1 (NWC, Pool A) 0.960/0.507/1-1, WE#2
Plattsburgh State 21-4, 21-4 (SUNYAC, Pool A) 0.840/0.546/4-2, EA#1
John Carroll 24-3, 24-3 (OAC, Pool C) 0.889/0.526/3-2, GL#3
Hope 23-2, 21-1 (MIAA, Pool A) 0.955/0.499/1-1, GL#4
Tufts 20-5, 20-5 (NESCAC, Pool C) 0.800/0.555/3-4, NE#3
Ohio Wesleyan 23-3, 23-3 (NCAC, Pool A) 0.885/0.521/3-2, GL#2
Catholic 21-5, 21-5 (LAND, Pool A) 0.808/0.549/4-2, MA#4
Salisbury 21-5, 21-5 (CAC, Pool C) 0.808/0.548/4-2, MA#3
Trinity (Conn.) 19-6, 18-6 (NESCAC, Pool A) 0.750/0.563/2-4, NE#2

Likely (6, including Stockton moving up)
Emory 17-7, 16-7 (UAA, Pool A) 0.696/0.583/4-4, SO#3
Wooster 20-6, 19-6 (NCAC, Pool C) 0.760/0.556/2-4, GL#6
Stockton 20-6, 20-5 (NJAC, Pool A) 0.800/0.540/3-3, AT#2
Rochester 17-7, 17-6 (UAA, Pool C) 0.739/0.562/3-3, EA#2
Alma 19-6, 19-6 (MIAA, Pool C) 0.760/0.550/3-4, GL#5
Babson 19-5, 19-5 (NEWMAC, Pool A) 0.792/0.537/3-3, NE#4

Bubble (19, including Whitman moving down)
Scranton 19-7, 18-7 (LAND, Pool C) 0.720/0.556/2-4, MA#5
Whitman 22-4, 21-4 (NWC, Pool C) 0.840/0.509/1-2, WE#3
Texas Lutheran 19-6, 19-6 (SCAC, Pool A) 0.760/0.531/3-0, SO#1
Chicago 17-7, 16-7 (UAA, Pool C) 0.696/0.560/2-6, CE#6
Johnson and Wales 25-2, 24-2 (GNAC, Pool A) 0.923/0.473/1-0, NE#6
Elmhurst 20-5, 20-5 (CCIW, Pool C) 0.800/0.518/2-4, CE#5
Carroll 19-4, 19-4 (MWC, Pool C) 0.826/0.509/0-2, CE#8
Lynchburg 19-6, 19-6 (ODAC, Pool A) 0.760/0.533/3-2, SO#2
Virginia Wesleyan 17-8, 17-8 (ODAC, Pool C) 0.680/0.562/4-4, SO#4
North Carolina Wesleyan 20-6, 16-4 (USAC, Pool A) 0.800/0.523/1-1, SO#5
St. John Fisher 20-5, 20-5 (E8, Pool A) 0.800/0.516/1-0, EA#4
WPI 20-5, 20-5 (NEWMAC, Pool C) 0.800/0.513/5-2, NE#5
New York University 19-5, 19-5 (UAA, Pool C) 0.792/0.513/3-3, EA#3
Oswego State 19-7, 19-7 (SUNYAC, Pool C) 0.731/0.538/5-2, EA#5
LaGrange 19-7, 16-6 (USAC, Pool C) 0.727/0.537/2-2, SO#6
DeSales 19-7, 19-6 (MACF, Pool C) 0.760/0.524/0-2, AT#3
Eastern Connecticut 18-8, 18-8 (LEC, Pool A) 0.692/0.548/1-4, NE#7
Franklin and Marshall 20-5, 20-5 (CC, Pool A) 0.800/0.507/1-0, MA#6
Aurora 20-5, 19-5 (NATHC, Pool C) 0.792/0.509/1-2, CE#7

Longshots (12)
Brockport 17-9, 17-9 (SUNYAC, Pool C) 0.654/0.561/4-5, EA#x
East Texas Baptist 21-5, 18-5 (ASC, Pool A) 0.783/0.509/0-2, SO#7
Brooklyn 21-6, 21-6 (CUNYAC, Pool A) 0.778/0.508/4-2, AT#4
St. Johns 19-7, 18-7 (MIAC, Pool C) 0.720/0.529/4-4, WE#4
SUNY Geneseo 17-9, 17-8 (SUNYAC, Pool C) 0.680/0.541/1-4, ea#6
Bethel 18-8, 18-8 (MIAC, Pool C) 0.692/0.534/4-5, WE#7
Hiram 19-7, 19-6 (NCAC, Pool C) 0.760/0.501/2-2, GL#8
New Jersey City 18-8, 18-8 (NJAC, Pool C) 0.692/0.524/4-2, AT#1
MIT 19-6, 19-6 (NEWMAC, Pool C) 0.760/0.497/2-3, NE#8
Roanoke 19-6, 18-6 (ODAC, Pool C) 0.750/0.499/1-2, SO#8
St. Olaf 16-9, 16-9 (MIAC, Pool C) 0.640/0.539/2-6, WE#5
Mount Union 18-9, 17-9 (OAC, Pool C) 0.654/0.545/2-5, GL#7

So far this week, the bubble looks pillowy soft. For that reason, I can't yet bring myself to drop some teams off the board, even with numbers that would make their chances completely nil.

Conference tournaments with possible bubble-bursters
(Pool C contenders noted)

Friday
ASC: East Texas Baptist (longshot) in semis Fri., but probably a one-bid league
Centennial: Franklin & Marshall (bubble) in semis Fri.
CUNYAC: Brooklyn (longshot) in final Fri. vs Baruch (out), but probably a one-bid league
CCIW: Augustana (lock); North Central (lock) vs Elmhurst (bubble) in semis Fri.
Empire 8: St John Fisher (bubble) in semis Fri.
MIAA: Hope (lock), Alma (likely) in semis Fri.
MIAC: Bethel (unlikely) at St thomas (lock); St John's (longshot) vs Bethel (longshot) in semis Fri.
Midwest: St Norbert (lock), Carroll (bubble) in semis Fri.
NATHC: Benedictine (lock), Aurora (bubble) in semis Fri.
NCAC: Ohio Wesleyan (lock); Wooster (likely) vs Hiram (longshot) in semis Fri.
ODAC: Lynchburg (bubble), Virginia Wesleyan (bubble), Roanoke (longshot) in quarters Fri.
SUNYAC: Oswego St (bubble) at Plattsburgh St (lock); Brockport in semis Fri., also Geneseo (longshot)
USAC: NC Wesleyan (bubble), LaGrange (bubble) in quarters Fri.

Saturday
GNAC: Johnson & Wales (bubble) in final Sat. vs. Albertus Magnus
LEC: E. Connecticut (bubble) in semis Sat., but probably a one-bid league
NESCAC: Trinity (lock); Amherst (lock) vs Tufts (lock) in semis Sat.
NEWMAC: Babson (likely); wPI (bubble) vs MIT (longshot) in semis Sat.
NJAC: Stockton (likely) in final Sat.; NJ City (longshot) eliminated
NWC: Whitworth (lock) in final Sat. vs Pacific Lutheran (out); also Whitman (bubble)
SCAC: Texas Lutheran (bubble) in semis Sat.
UAA: Emory (likely) at Rochester (likely) for AQ Sat.; Chicago (bubble), NYU (bubble) also contending

Conferences with no bubble-bursters remaining
CAC: Salisbury (lock) at Christopher Newport (lock) in finals
Landmark: Susquehanna (lock) at Catholic (lock) in finals; also Scranton (bubble)
OAC: John Carroll (lock) at Marietta (lock) in finals; also Mt Union (longshot)

I suspect a lot will change in the next 12 hours!

Thanks for this effort and Knight Slappy's, also. Any chance that 1 similar run could be done for the women's side?

If Matt can assemble the numbers, then I can break down the Pool C tiers and conferences, but I don't have the technical expertise to easily collect the data.

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh · February 26, 2016, 06:51:46 PM

The numbers are already assembled on the D3hoops.com site - since there isn't a multiplier, it is far easier: http://www.d3hoops.com/seasons/women/2015-16/schedule?tmpl=sos-template

fantastic50 · February 26, 2016, 07:26:36 PM

Longshot Brockport goes down in the SUNYAC semifinals, while Wooster likely punches their ticket by reaching the NCAC final.

fantastic50 · February 26, 2016, 07:33:34 PM

Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on February 26, 2016, 06:51:46 PM
The numbers are already assembled on the D3hoops.com site - since there isn't a multiplier, it is far easier: http://www.d3hoops.com/seasons/women/2015-16/schedule?tmpl=sos-template

Okay, will work on it. A couple of quick questions:

Do the women have any kind of wins vs. SOS principle, like the 2 wins = 0.030 SOS on the men's side?
Do I understand correctly that it's 43 conference tournament winners, plus the UAA champ and 20 Pool C berths?

ronk · February 26, 2016, 07:37:25 PM

Quote from: fantastic50 on February 26, 2016, 07:33:34 PM
Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on February 26, 2016, 06:51:46 PM
The numbers are already assembled on the D3hoops.com site - since there isn't a multiplier, it is far easier: http://www.d3hoops.com/seasons/women/2015-16/schedule?tmpl=sos-template

Okay, will work on it. A couple of quick questions:

Do the women have any kind of wins vs. SOS principle, like the 2 wins = 0.030 SOS on the men's side?
Do I understand correctly that it's 43 conference tournament winners, plus the UAA champ and 20 Pool C berths?
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Yes for the 2nd question; don't know the 1st.

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh · February 26, 2016, 07:44:15 PM

44 conferences and 20 at-large bids = 64 teams.

Don't forget the GSAC exists on the women's side in a very jury rigged way. It does not exist on the men's side.

As for the .030=2 ratio... they understand it and they understand it, but they don't lean on it as much as the men and they do not make a direct line to .060=4 like the men have started doing this year.

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh · February 26, 2016, 07:44:59 PM

North Central losses to Elmhurst... doesn't burst a bubble, but Elmhurst may have helped themselves.

Titan Q · February 26, 2016, 07:53:59 PM

Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on February 26, 2016, 07:44:59 PM
North Central losses to Elmhurst... doesn't burst a bubble, but Elmhurst may have helped themselves.

Elmhurst in good shape now. In the CCIW, Augustana, North Central, and Elmhurst all look to be in.

This result hurt Chicago some. Had Elmhurst lost and Chicago taken care of business vs Wash U tomorrow, I believe Chicago would have moved ahead of Elmhurst in the Central. The Maroons may still get in, but they're in that nervous territory -- hoping for very few upsets.

Ben Stein Fan · February 26, 2016, 09:24:47 PM

LaGrange College was down to NC Wesleyan by 15 at half 54-39. The game was at NC Wesleyan. Final Score 99-87 LaGrange wins and goes on to face Covenant.

LaGrange split with NC Wesleyan (So #5) Lost to Lynchburg (So #2) on a neutral court by 3 and put down a beatdown on Emory on a neutral court. Emory also lost to Maryville which didn't even make the USA South Tournament. Yet, somehow they seem to be in really good shape for the tournament and LaGrange is on the bubble.