Pool C

[pg04]

Plattsburgh loses to Oswego 81-74 so a bubble will burst in lieu of Cortland or Oswego winning the SUNYAC

[realist]

Hope loses to Trine in the MIAA semi so there goes a C.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Hope loses to Trine in the MIAA semi so there goes a C.

Wasn't Alma pretty likely to get in?  It'll only really be a bubble burst if Trine wins the AQ.

[KnightSlappy]

Hope loses to Trine in the MIAA semi so there goes a C.

Wasn't Alma pretty likely to get in?  It'll only really be a bubble burst if Trine wins the AQ.

Correct. No bubble burst if Alma wins tomorrow.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

The great Austin Steuck scored 42 tonight as MSOE secured its second upset of the week over Aurora.  They'll be playing Benedictine for the chance to burst someone's bubble.  That's a great player on a good team; don't put it past them.

[David Collinge]

Denison topples OWU 95-85. Much like the MIAA, with Wooster waiting in the title game, nobody's bubble burst, yet. OWU is in as a Pool C lock, but DU is in win-or-go-home mode tomorrow.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Ohio Wesleyan goes down.  Wooster is still in the final, so not necessarily a bubble burst there.

[fantastic50]

Full update tomorrow, with new numbers from Matt Snyder, but quick thoughts...

• Moving Alma and Wooster up from likely to locks with semifinal wins
• Oswego may move up from bubble to likely, after road upset of Plattsburgh
• Aurora drops from bubble to longshot, after a bad semifinal loss to 6th seed Milwaukee Engineering
• NC Wesleyan might also drop, after falling to fellow bubble team LaGrange
• ETBU, Roanoke, Hiram go off the board entirely, perhaps also Brockport

[KnightSlappy]

Full update tomorrow, with new numbers from Matt Snyder, but quick thoughts...

• Moving Alma and Wooster up from likely to locks with semifinal wins
• Oswego may move up from bubble to likely, after road upset of Plattsburgh
• Aurora drops from bubble to longshot, after a bad semifinal loss to 6th seed Milwaukee Engineering
• NC Wesleyan might also drop, after falling to fellow bubble team LaGrange
• ETBU, Roanoke, Hiram go off the board entirely, perhaps also Brockport

I was wondering if NC Wesleyan's loss un-popped a bubble. LaGrange always seemed to have better Pool C credentials.

[fantastic50]

Full update tomorrow, with new numbers from Matt Snyder, but quick thoughts...

• Moving Alma and Wooster up from likely to locks with semifinal wins
• Oswego may move up from bubble to likely, after road upset of Plattsburgh
• Aurora drops from bubble to longshot, after a bad semifinal loss to 6th seed Milwaukee Engineering
• NC Wesleyan might also drop, after falling to fellow bubble team LaGrange
• ETBU, Roanoke, Hiram go off the board entirely, perhaps also Brockport

I was wondering if NC Wesleyan's loss un-popped a bubble. LaGrange always seemed to have better Pool C credentials.

I tend to agree, but I think the two extra losses is what put LaGrange behind Wesleyan last week in the regional rankings.

[Greek Tragedy]

Updated through Friday's games

Teams in BOLD are conferences winners/leaders. An * means there's a tie. Pool A (Automatic qualifiers) will be BLUE once their conference tournaments are complete. Teams losing will be RED and will be considered Pool C.

ATL
WK3	Team	Schedule
#1	New Jersey City (NJAC)	LOST to TCNJ 92-82 in semis
#2	Stockton (NJAC)	WON vs Rutgers-Newark 95-75 in semis; WON vs TCNJ 60-53 in Final
#3	DeSales (MACF)	LOST to Wilkes 72-62 in semis
#4	Brooklyn (CUNYAC)	WON vs Staten Island 78-69 in semis; WON vs Baruch 76-67 in Final
#5	Lehman (CUNYAC)	LOST to Baruch 80-64 in semis
#6	Staten Island (CUNYAC)	LOST to Brooklyn 78-69 in semis
#7	Rutgers-Newark (NJAC)	WON vs William Paterson 78-52 in QFs; LOST at Stockton 95-75 in semis
	DROPPING OUT
	Delaware Valley (MACF)
CENT
WK3	Team	Schedule
#1	Benedictine (NACC)	WON vs Marian 91-82; vs MSOE in Final on Sunday
#2	Augustana (CCIW)	WON vs Illinois Wesleyan 83-74; WON vs Elmhurst 69-53 in Final
#3	St.Norbert (MWC)	WON vs Lake Forest 63-48; WON vs Carroll 71-69 in Final
#4	NCC (CCIW)	LOST to Elmhurst 60-58 in semis
#5	Elmhurst	LOST to Augustana 69-53 in Final
#6	Chicago (UAA)	LOST to Washington U. 67-54
#7	Aurora (NACC)	LOST to MSOE in semis 100-96
#8	Carroll (MWC)	LOST to St. Norbert 71-69 in Final
EAST
WK3	Team	Schedule
#1	Platts. St. (SUNYAC)	LOST to Oswego St 81-74 in semis
#2	Rochester (UAA)	LOST to Emory 84-75
#3	NYU (UAA)	WON at Brandeis 71-50
#4	St. John Fisher (E8)	WON vs Stevens 85-62; LOST to Hartwick 93-91 in Final
#5	Oswego St. (SUNYAC)	WON vs SUNY Geneseo 75-59; WON at Platts. St. 81-74;LOST  at Cortland 77-74 in Final
#6	SUNY Geneseo (SUNYAC)	LOST to Oswego St. 75-59 in QFs
	DROPPING OUT
	SUNY Oneonta (SUNYAC)
	Brockport (SUNYAC)
GL
WK3	Team	Schedule
#1	Marietta (OAC)	WON vs Wilmington 93-78; Won vs Baldwin Wallace 91-66; LOST vs John Carroll 97-95 in Final
#2	Ohio Wesleyan (NCAC)	WON vs Wabash 100-80; LOST to Denison 95-85 in semis
#3	John Carroll (OAC)	WON vs Capital 83-70; WON vs Mount Union 93-74; WON at Marietta 87-85 in Final
#4	Hope (MIAA)	LOST to Trine 82-77 in semis
#5	Alma (MIAA)	WON vs Albion 77-64; WON vs Trine 62-54 in Final
#6	Wooster (NCAC)	WON vs Oberlin 78-63; WON vs Hiram 92-79; LOST to Denison 92-81 in Final
#7	Mount Union (OAC)	WON vs Heidelberg 102-96; LOST at John Carroll 93-74 in semis
#8	Hiram (NCAC)	WON vs Kenyon 95-87; LOST at Wooster 92-79 in semis
#9	St. Vincent (PAC)	WON vs Chatham 80-65; WON vs Westminster 70-65; WON vs Thomas More 65-62 in Final
	DROPPING OUT
	Trine (MIAA)
MA
WK3	Team	Schedule
#1	Christopher Newport(CAC)	WON vs St. Mary's 57-56; WON vs Salisbury in 68-67 OT in Final
#2	Susquehanna (LAND)	WON vs Scranton 77-72 in semis; LOST to Catholic 83-81 in Final
#3	Salisbury (CAC)	WON vs Mary Washington 83-78; LOST at Christopher Newport 68-68 OT in Final
#4	Catholic (LAND)	WON vs Juniata 79-66; WON vs Susquehanna 83-81 in Final
#5	Scranton (LAND)	LOST to Susquehanna 77-72 in semis
#6	Franklin and Marshall (CC)	WON vs Gettysburg 74-63; WON vs Swarthmore 75-64 in Final
NE
WK3	Team	Schedule
#1	Amherst (NECAC)	WON vs Tufts 86-83 in semis; vs Middlebury in Final today
#2	Trinity (Conn.) (NESCAC)	LOST to Middlebury 70-58 in semis
#3	Tufts (NESCAC)	LOST at Amherst 86-83 in semis
#4	Babson (NEWMAC)	WON vs Emerson 74-69; vs MIT in Final today
#5	WPI (NEWMAC)   [color]	LOST to MIT 96-80 in semis
#6	Johnson & Wales (GNAC)	WON vs St. Joseph's 73-36; WON vs Emmanuel 97-79; WON vs Albertus Magnus 86-74 in Final
#7	Eastern Connecticut (LEC)	WON vs Mass-Boston 93-65; LOST to Mass-Dartmouth 60-55 in semis
#8	MIT (NEWMAC)	WON at WPI 96-80; at Babson in Final today
#9	Middlebury (NESCAC)	WON at Trinity 70-58; at Amherst in Final today
#10	Southern Vermont(NECC)	WON vs Regis 73-68; WON vs Becker 74-72 in Final
#11	Nichols (CCC)	WON vs W. New England 10768; LOST to Endicott 82-80 in semis
	DROPPING OUT
	Wesleyan (NESCAC)
SOUTH
WK3	Team	Schedule
#1	Texas Lutheran (SCAC)	WON vs Centenary 80-70; vs Colorado College in Final today
#2	Lynchburg (ODAC)	WON vs Hampden-Sydney 90-67; WON vs Emory and Henry 94-64; vs Randolph in Final today
#3	Emory (UAA)	WON at Rochester 84-74
#4	Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC)	WON vs Randolph-Macon 78-52; LOST to Randolph 69-61 in semis
#5	N.C. Wesleyan (USAC)	WON vs Averett 81-66; LOST to LaGrange 99-87 in semis
#6	LaGrange (USAC)	WON vs Ferrum 77-73; WON at N.C. Wesleyan 99-87; LOST at Covenant 101-92 OT in Final
#7	ETBU (ASC)	WON vs Mary Harin-Baylor 70-64; LOST to Louisiana College 56-44 in semis
#8	Roanoke (ODAC)	LOST to Randolph 74-62 in QFs
WEST
WK3	Team	Schedule
#1	St. Thomas (MIAC)	WON vs Bethel 63-46; vs St. Olaf in Final on Sunday
#2	Whitworth (NWC)	WON vs Puget Sound 75-58; WON vs Pacific Lutheran 75-62 in Final
#3	Whitman (NWC)	LOST to Pacific Lutheran 82-68 in semis
#4	St. John's (MIAC)	WON vs Augsburg 99-86; LOST at St. Olaf 91-80 in semis
#5	St.Olaf (MIAC)	WON vs St. John's 91-80; at St. Thomas in Final on Sunday
#6	Concordia-Moorhead (MIAC)	LOST to Bethel 67-62 in QFs
#7	Bethel (MIAC)	WON at Concordia-Moorhead 67-62; lost at St. Thomas 63-46 in semis
	DROPPING OUT
	Dubuque (IIAC)
	Augsburg (MIAC)

[Titan Q]

Leveraging Matthew Snyder's data and the great work by fantastic50 and Greek Tragedy here, my Pool C's as of Saturday morning...

1. Susquehanna  0.875/0.543/4-2, MA#2  LAND final vs Catholic (Catholic interchangeable here)
2. Amherst  0.840/0.558/4-1, NE#1  NESCAC semis vs Tufts (Tufts also projected in)
3. John Carroll  0.889/0.526/3-2, GL#3  OAC final at Marietta (Marietta interchangeable here)
4. Plattsburgh State  .808/.551/4-3, E #1  lost to Oswego State in SUYAC semis (confirmed Pool C candidate)
5. Salisbury  0.808/0.549/4-2, MA#3  CAC final at Christoper Newport (CNU interchangeable here)
6. Ohio Wesleyan  .852/.525/3-2, GL #2  lost to Denison in NCAC semis (confirmed Pool C candidate)
7. North Central  0.720/0.600/3-7, CE #4  lost to Elmhurst in CCIW semis (confirmed Pool C candidate)
8. Tufts  0.800/0.555/3-4, NE#3  NESCAC semis at Amherst (Amherst also projected in)
9. Oswego State  0.731/0.538/5-2, EA#5  SUNYAC final at Cortland
10. Scranton  0.720/0.556/2-4, MA#5  lost to Susquehanna in LAND semis (confirmed Pool C candidate)
11. Elmhurst  0.808/0.526/3-4, CE#5  CCIW final at Augustana (Augie interchangeable here)
12. WPI  0.800/0.513/5-2, NE#5  vs MIT in NEWMAC semis
13. Emory  .696/.584/4-4, SO #3  at Rochester in final UAA regular season game (Rochester interchangeable here)
14. Hope  .913/.504/1-1, GL #4  lost in MIAA semis to Trine (confirmed Pool C candidate)
15. Virginia Wesleyan  0.680/0.562/4-5, SO#4 ODAC semis vs Randolph
16. Chicago  0.696/0.560/2-6, CE#6  vs Washington U in final UAA regular season game (confirmed Pool C candidate)
17. Whitman  0.840/0.509/1-2, WE#3  lost to Pacific Lutheran in NWC semis (confirmed Pool C candidate)
18. LaGrange  0.739/0.546/3-2, SO#6  USAC final at Covenant
19. St. Johns  0.692/0.535/4-4, WE#4  lost at St. Olaf in MIAC semis (confirmed Pool C candidate)
----------
20. New York University  0.792/0.513/3-3, EA#3  at Brandeis in final UAA regular season game (confirmed Pool C candidate)
21. New Jersey City  0.692/.525/4-2, AT #1 lost to TCNJ in NJAC semis (confirmed Pool C candidate)
22. NC Wesleyan .762/529/1-2, SO #5  lost to LaGrange in USAC semis (confirmed Pool C candidate)


Bubble Relief
* Oswego State winning the SUNYAC over Cortland (Oswego currently included above)

Bubble Bursters (roughly in order of significance)
1. St. Olaf winning the MIAC (St. Thomas is a Pool C lock)
2. MSOE winning the NACC (Benedictine is a Pool C lock)
3. Pacific Lutheran winning the NWC (Whitworth is a Pool C lock)
4. Carroll winning the MWC (St. Norbert is a Pool C lock)
5. Trine winning the MIAA (Alma is a Pool C lock)
6. Denison winning the NCAC (Wooster a Pool C lock)
7. Middlebury winning the NESCAC (Amherst, Tufts, Trinity seem to be Pool C locks)
8. TCNJ winning the NJAC (Stockton a Pool lock)
9. MIT or Emerson winning the NEWMAC (Babson and WPI Pool C locks)
10. Emory & Henry or Randolph winning the ODAC (Lynchburg a Pool C lock)
11. Centenary, Colorado College, or Austin winning the SCAC (Texas Lutheran is very competitive in Pool C)


Let me know if I am missing anything.

[bopol]

TitanQ - where do you see NC Wesleyan?

[fantastic50]

49 teams in Pool C contention
43 bids currently available to this group, so at least 6 will not be selected (more if upsets today pop bubbles)
Within each category, teams are listed from (perceived) strongest Pool C contenders to weakest.
All data is from the NCAA & Matt Snyder
http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/

Already qualified (Pool A, as conference champ)
Brooklyn 22-6, 22-6 (CUNYAC, Pool A) 0.786/0.509/4-2, AT#4

Locks (22)
St. Thomas 24-2, 24-2 (MIAC, Pool A) 0.923/0.560/11-0, WE#1
Benedictine 26-0, 26-0 (NATHC, Pool A) 1.000/0.525/4-0, CE#1
Marietta 25-2, 25-2 (OAC, Pool A) 0.926/0.547/5-2, GL#1
Christopher Newport 25-1, 25-1 (CAC, Pool A) 0.962/0.532/4-1, MA#1
Augustana 25-1, 25-1 (CCIW, Pool A) 0.962/0.530/3-1, CE#2
St. Norbert 22-2, 22-2 (MWC, Pool A) 0.917/0.529/2-1, CE#3
Susquehanna 23-3, 21-3 (LAND, Pool C) 0.875/0.543/4-2, MA#2
Amherst 21-4, 21-4 (NESCAC, Pool C) 0.840/0.556/4-1, NE#1
North Central (Ill.) 19-7, 18-7 (CCIW, Pool C) 0.720/0.600/3-7, CE#4
Whitworth 25-1, 24-1 (NWC, Pool A) 0.960/0.507/1-1, WE#2
John Carroll 24-3, 24-3 (OAC, Pool C) 0.889/0.526/3-2, GL#3
Tufts 20-5, 20-5 (NESCAC, Pool C) 0.800/0.555/3-4, NE#3
Plattsburgh State 21-5, 21-5 (SUNYAC, Pool C) 0.808/0.551/4-3, EA#1
Salisbury 21-5, 21-5 (CAC, Pool C) 0.808/0.549/4-2, MA#3
Catholic 21-5, 21-5 (LAND, Pool A) 0.808/0.549/4-2, MA#4
Wooster 21-6, 20-6 (NCAC, Pool A) 0.769/0.561/3-4, GL#6
Hope 23-3, 21-2 (MIAA, Pool C) 0.913/0.504/1-1, GL#4
Ohio Wesleyan 23-4, 23-4 (NCAC, Pool C) 0.852/0.525/3-2, GL#2
Trinity (Conn.) 19-6, 18-6 (NESCAC, Pool A) 0.750/0.562/2-4, NE#2
Alma 20-6, 20-6 (MIAA, Pool A) 0.769/0.552/3-4, GL#5
Stockton 20-6, 20-5 (NJAC, Pool A) 0.800/0.540/3-3, AT#2
Rochester 17-7, 17-6 (UAA, Pool C) 0.739/0.560/3-3, EA#2

Likely (4)
Emory 17-7, 16-7 (UAA, Pool A) 0.696/0.584/4-4, SO#3 - the possibility of being "blocked" by a weaker team concerns me
Babson 19-5, 19-5 (NEWMAC, Pool A) 0.792/0.538/3-3, NE#4
Elmhurst 21-5, 21-5 (CCIW, Pool C) 0.808/0.526/3-4, CE#5
Oswego State 20-7, 20-7 (SUNYAC, Pool A) 0.741/0.548/6-2, EA#5

Bubble (16, most of these will get in)
Lynchburg 20-6, 20-6 (ODAC, Pool A) 0.769/0.540/3-2, SO#2
Scranton 19-7, 18-7 (LAND, Pool C) 0.720/0.556/2-4, MA#5
Whitman 22-4, 21-4 (NWC, Pool C) 0.840/0.509/1-2, WE#3
Texas Lutheran 19-6, 19-6 (SCAC, Pool A) 0.760/0.530/3-0, SO#1
WPI 20-5, 20-5 (NEWMAC, Pool C) 0.800/0.513/5-2, NE#5
Virginia Wesleyan 18-8, 18-8 (ODAC, Pool C) 0.692/0.560/4-4, SO#4
Johnson and Wales 25-2, 24-2 (GNAC, Pool A) 0.923/0.473/1-0, NE#6
Chicago 17-7, 16-7 (UAA, Pool C) 0.696/0.558/2-6, CE#6
St. John Fisher 21-5, 21-5 (E8, Pool A) 0.808/0.515/1-0, EA#4
Franklin and Marshall 21-5, 21-5 (CC, Pool A) 0.808/0.512/1-0, MA#6
Carroll 20-4, 20-4 (MWC, Pool C) 0.833/0.514/0-2, CE#8
North Carolina Wesleyan 20-7, 16-5 (USAC, Pool C) 0.762/0.529/1-2, SO#5
LaGrange 20-7, 17-6 (USAC, Pool A) 0.739/0.546/3-2, SO#6
DeSales 19-7, 19-6 (MAFC, Pool A) 0.760/0.524/0-2, AT#3
New York University 19-5, 19-5 (UAA, Pool C) 0.792/0.512/3-3, EA#3
Eastern Connecticut 18-8, 18-8 (LEC, Pool A) 0.692/0.549/1-4, NE#7

Longshots (6)
Bethel 18-9, 18-9 (MIAC, Pool C) 0.667/0.547/4-6, WE#7
SUNY Geneseo 17-9, 17-8 (SUNYAC, Pool C) 0.680/0.542/1-4, ea#6
Aurora 20-6, 19-6 (NATHC, Pool C) 0.760/0.511/1-2, ce#7
St. Johns 19-8, 18-8 (MIAC, Pool C) 0.692/0.535/4-5, WE#4
New Jersey City 18-8, 18-8 (NJAC, Pool C) 0.692/0.525/4-2, AT#1
MIT 19-6, 19-6 (NEWMAC, Pool C) 0.760/0.497/2-3, ne#8

Coming off the board recently were ETBU, Roanoke, Hiram, Brockport, and St. Olaf.
(If the Oles lose today, they would have a .630 WP, and I just can't see them getting selected.)

[Titan Q]

TitanQ - where do you see NC Wesleyan?

I added them above.  I have NC Wesleyan behind LaGrange - I think the final (secret) South ranking will have them flipped (currently NC Wesleyan #5, LaGrange #6).  The head-to-head win by LaGrange yesterday was big.

I don't see any way both get in, so I consider LaGrange to have a shot at the very end of the bubble and NC Wesleyan to be out.

The final regional ranking will be very big -- the higher ranked team will have a shot if there aren't many bubble burster upsets.