Pool C

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I think Plattsburgh gets to host in the East. I don't really love anyone for a second hosting spot, but assuming everyone gets two then, yeah maybe Rochester or Oswego. Will depend on who gets ranked in the final secret rankings and how the RROs look. Maybe even Lancaster Bible will be ranked this time!

Right now I'm thinking: Amherst and Babson? (if they win), Plattsburgh and Rochester, Brooklyn and Stockton, CNU and Catholic, Lynchburg/Emory and either TXLu or an extra GL; JCU and Marietta (and possible OWU); Augie and Benedictine; St Thomas and Whitworth.

Best case scenario is they send SCIAC, SCAC, and ASC to Whitworth and get all the flights out of the way early - then GL get's an extra host and opens up a lot of other scenarios.  It's looking less likely that Whitman will get in now anyway.

Sigh... life on an island.  Colorado College winning the SCAC? Yes.

TLU winning the SCAC, being #1 in the Region, and not hosting a game?  How does that fly in the Central, Great Lakes or Northeast Regions?

If Whitman doesn't get in, they'll probably fly Whitworth and the SLIAC champ to TX.

Respectfully, SLIAC or SCIAC? 
Thanks.

SCIAC, of course.  They love to fly out there.

[bopol]

My hack on the Pool C's

1. Marietta
2. Susquehanna
3. Plattsburgh St
4. Salisbury
5. Ohio Wesleyan
6. North Central
7. Hope
8. Wooster
9. Elmhurst
10. Whitman
11. Trinity
12. Tufts
13. Scranton
14. Rochester
15. LaGrange
16. WPI
17. NYU
18. Carroll
19. St. John Fisher

Left on table: MIT, New Jersey City, Virginia Wesleyan, Mount Union, Chicago, St. Johns.

Thoughts: 
* The NE teams came off the table slower than I expected.  I bumped up MIT based on their performance in the NEWMAC tournament, but they still didn't make the cut.  I expected WPI to be a nobrainer, but it waited until the 15th pick.

* Order will matter a great deal in the East.  Since everyone got dumped, I didn't feel a compelling reason to change the order, but then I ended up with NYU as the 17th pick and St. John Fisher at 19 without Oswego St even getting to the table.  I think the last few picks may come from the East and any tweeks in order got really make a huge difference.

* Nothing came from the Atlantic.  I kept New Jersey City as the top pick.  Not sure if dropping them below DeSales would matter.

* In the south, I move up Lagrange because they had a better resume and they ended up getting in.  This is another region where order will matter a great deal.

* In the Central, I moved up Carroll and they ended up getting in with one of the last picks. I think some of the moving up may become self-fulfilling prophecy as I think they look better, so I move them up and then I choose by the same criteria.

* In the West, I think Whitman is still in, but nothing after that.

I would guess that most will agree with the first 14 and WPI, but the last 4 are going to be a complete crapshoot.  It'll be very dependent on the whims of the regional committee IMO.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

My latest thoughts, based on new numbers from knightslappy...

Pool C selections
1) Marietta 25-3, 25-3 (OAC, Pool C) 0.893/0.555/5-3, GL#1
2) North Central (Ill.) 19-7, 18-7 (CCIW, Pool C) 0.720/0.600/3-7, CE#4
3) Susquehanna 23-4, 21-4 (LAND, Pool C) 0.840/0.554/4-3, MA#2
4) Plattsburgh State 21-5, 21-5 (SUNYAC, Pool C) 0.808/0.551/4-3, EA#1
5) Salisbury 21-6, 21-6 (CAC, Pool C) 0.778/0.562/4-3, MA#3
6) Tufts 20-6, 20-6 (NESCAC, Pool C) 0.769/0.562/3-5, NE#3
7) Ohio Wesleyan 23-4, 23-4 (NCAC, Pool C) 0.852/0.525/3-2, GL#2
8) Trinity (Conn.) 19-7, 18-7 (NESCAC, Pool C) 0.720/0.562/2-5, NE#2
9) Elmhurst 21-6, 21-6 (CCIW, Pool C) 0.778/0.542/3-5, CE#5
10) Rochester 17-8, 17-7 (UAA, Pool C) 0.708/0.561/3-4, EA#2
11) Scranton 19-7, 18-7 (LAND, Pool C) 0.720/0.556/2-4, MA#5
12) Hope 23-3, 21-2 (MIAA, Pool C) 0.913/0.504/1-1, GL#4
13) Wooster 21-7, 20-7 (NCAC, Pool C) 0.741/0.563/3-4, GL#6
14) Whitman 22-4, 21-4 (NWC, Pool C) 0.840/0.509/1-2, WE#3
---bubble---
15) Oswego State 20-8, 20-8 (SUNYAC, Pool C) 0.714/0.552/6-2, EA#5
16) Carroll 20-5, 20-5 (MWC, Pool C) 0.800/0.529/0-3, CE#8
17) WPI 20-6, 20-6 (NEWMAC, Pool C) 0.769/0.521/5-3, NE#5
18) LaGrange 20-8, 17-7 (USAC, Pool C) 0.708/0.551/3-2, SO#6
and #19 goes by way of a bubble-burster tomorrow

Left on the board
Atlantic: New Jersey City 18-8, 18-8 (NJAC, Pool C) 0.692/0.525/4-2, AT#1
Central: Aurora 20-6, 19-6 (NATHC, Pool C) 0.760/0.510/1-2, ce#7
East: New York University 20-5, 20-5 (UAA, Pool C) 0.800/0.509/3-3, EA#3
Great Lakes: Mount Union 18-9, 17-9 (OAC, Pool C) 0.654/0.546/2-5, GL#7
Mid-Atlantic: none
Northeast: Eastern Connecticut 18-9, 18-9 (LEC, Pool C) 0.667/0.551/1-4, NE#7
South: North Carolina Wesleyan 20-7, 16-5 (USAC, Pool C) 0.762/0.527/1-2, SO#5
West: Bethel 18-9, 18-9 (MIAC, Pool C) 0.667/0.548/4-6, WE#7

Tomorrow's potential bubble-bursters
12:00 NESCAC final - Amherst (lock) hosting Middlebury (out)
12:00 NEWMAC final - Babson (likely) hosting MIT (longshot)
3:00 MIAC final - St Thomas (lock) hosting St Olaf (out)
3:00 NAthC final - Benedictine (lock) hosting Milwaukee Engineering (out)
3:30 ODAC final - Lynchburg (bubble) vs Randolph (out)
  SCAC final - Texas Lutheran (bubble) hosting Colorado College (out)

I don't think these USAC teams have done enough to move ahead of VA Wesleyan on the RR.  If they're stuck behind the Marlins, I think they're stuck.

[fantastic50]

I don't think these USAC teams have done enough to move ahead of VA Wesleyan on the RR.  If they're stuck behind the Marlins, I think they're stuck.

I think that those three (VWU, LaGrange, NC Wesleyan) could be ranked in any order, but with VWU at 18-9 (WP .667), that might override their great schedule.  It's tough sledding when your WP gets below .700.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I don't think these USAC teams have done enough to move ahead of VA Wesleyan on the RR.  If they're stuck behind the Marlins, I think they're stuck.

I think that those three (VWU, LaGrange, NC Wesleyan) could be ranked in any order, but with VWU at 18-9 (WP .667), that might override their great schedule.  It's tough sledding when your WP gets below .700.

That's when you look at last week - what did these teams do this week?  LaGrange maybe, they went 2-1, but VWC and NCW both went 1-1, VWC has a .35 SOS advantage, two more wins overall and a better looking vRRO.  You can make the argument for LaGrange, but I don't think the NCW one has merit.  Honestly, I think VWC stays ahead of both.

[ronk]

 Another bubble buster dissolves with Whitworth winning its AQ 75-62.

[7express]

That LEC game (UMass Dartmouth winning) was just a semifinal.  They play Keene State tomorrow.  It's still a bubble burst (although I think its ECSU's bubble), but just wanted to clarify.

I think Eastern is done.  Even with a loss to Babson MIT may get bumped ahead of Eastern in the rankings, but even if they didn't I don't think WPI (the first bubble [non CAC] team) comes off the board until around rounds 12-15, so by that point not many spots left.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Half the teams are now in.  We'll learn 12 more tomorrow and the final 19 on Monday.  Fun times.

[bopol]

Worked out half a bracket.  Will look at again tomorrow to work out the other half and clean up mistakes.  This is more west, central, great lakes.  The top team hosts the bracket.  The Pool C's are based on my picks above.

Bracket of 16 (target 2nd weekend at Augustana or St. Thomas)
Augustana
Westimister
Hope
Ohio Wesleyan

Emory
Covenent
LaGrange
Birmingham Southern

Whitworth
bye
Chapman
Whitman

St Thomas
Northwestern
Elmhurst
UW-Oshkosh

Bracket of 16 (target 2nd weekend at Benedictine or John Carroll)

Benedictine
bye
Texas Lutheran
Hardin-Simmons

Marietta
Mt St. Joseph
Rochester
Wooster

John Carroll
Denison
Carroll
Scanton

St. Norbert
Central
North Central
Alma

[Matt Letourneau]

Three games still pending tonight, but I've updated the numbers.

http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/

Not a Pool C question, but wouldn't Catholic pass Susquehanna?  Catholic finished 2-1 against them (including a win tonight), and the rest of the numbers are a virtual dead heat.  (Catholic has the slimmest of advantages on SOS, and a game advantage on vRRO), SUS with a very small RPI advantage and a game better in overall win/loss.  But given the fact that everything else is even, doesn't the fact that Catholic beat them twice, including the two most recent games (road and championship) push them in front?

[sac]

Worked out half a bracket.  Will look at again tomorrow to work out the other half and clean up mistakes.  This is more west, central, great lakes.  The top team hosts the bracket.  The Pool C's are based on my picks above.

Bracket of 16 (target 2nd weekend at Augustana or St. Thomas)
Augustana
Westimister
Hope
Ohio Wesleyan

Emory
Covenent
LaGrange
Birmingham Southern

Whitworth
bye
Chapman
Whitman

St Thomas
Northwestern
Elmhurst
UW-Oshkosh

Bracket of 16 (target 2nd weekend at Benedictine or John Carroll)

Benedictine
bye
Texas Lutheran
Hardin-Simmons

Marietta
Mt St. Joseph
Rochester
Wooster

John Carroll
Denison
Carroll
Scanton

St. Norbert
Central
North Central
Alma

Your last pod contains two rematches, the NCAA tries their best to avoid that.  Alma played both St. Norbert and North Central.

[bopol]

Your last pod contains two rematches, the NCAA tries their best to avoid that.  Alma played both St. Norbert and North Central.

Thanks.  I'll try to fix.  St. Norbert hosting presents a lot of problems because too many of the Ohio teams are just out of range.

[Greek Tragedy]

Updated through Saturday's games

Pool A (Automatic qualifiers) will be BLUE once their conference tournaments are complete. Teams losing will be RED and will be considered Pool C.

ATL
WK3	Team	Schedule
#1	New Jersey City (NJAC)	LOST to TCNJ 92-82 in semis
#2	Stockton (NJAC)	WON vs Rutgers-Newark 95-75 in semis; WON vs TCNJ 60-53 in Final
#3	DeSales (MACF)	LOST to Wilkes 72-62 in semis
#4	Brooklyn (CUNYAC)	WON vs Staten Island 78-69 in semis; WON vs Baruch 76-67 in Final
#5	Lehman (CUNYAC)	LOST to Baruch 80-64 in semis
#6	Staten Island (CUNYAC)	LOST to Brooklyn 78-69 in semis
#7	Rutgers-Newark (NJAC)	WON vs William Paterson 78-52 in QFs; LOST at Stockton 95-75 in semis
	DROPPING OUT
	Delaware Valley (MACF)
CENT
WK3	Team	Schedule
#1	Benedictine (NACC)	WON vs Marian 91-82; vs MSOE in Final on Sunday
#2	Augustana (CCIW)	WON vs Illinois Wesleyan 83-74; WON vs Elmhurst 69-53 in Final
#3	St.Norbert (MWC)	WON vs Lake Forest 63-48; WON vs Carroll 71-69 in Final
#4	NCC (CCIW)	LOST to Elmhurst 60-58 in semis
#5	Elmhurst	LOST to Augustana 69-53 in Final
#6	Chicago (UAA)	LOST to Washington U. 67-54
#7	Aurora (NACC)	LOST to MSOE in semis 100-96
#8	Carroll (MWC)	LOST to St. Norbert 71-69 in Final
EAST
WK3	Team	Schedule
#1	Platts. St. (SUNYAC)	LOST to Oswego St 81-74 in semis
#2	Rochester (UAA)	LOST to Emory 84-75
#3	NYU (UAA)	WON at Brandeis 71-50
#4	St. John Fisher (E8)	WON vs Stevens 85-62; LOST to Hartwick 93-91 in Final
#5	Oswego St. (SUNYAC)	WON vs SUNY Geneseo 75-59; WON at Platts. St. 81-74;LOST  at Cortland 77-74 in Final
#6	SUNY Geneseo (SUNYAC)	LOST to Oswego St. 75-59 in QFs
	DROPPING OUT
	SUNY Oneonta (SUNYAC)
	Brockport (SUNYAC)
GL
WK3	Team	Schedule
#1	Marietta (OAC)	WON vs Wilmington 93-78; Won vs Baldwin Wallace 91-66; LOST vs John Carroll 97-95 in Final
#2	Ohio Wesleyan (NCAC)	WON vs Wabash 100-80; LOST to Denison 95-85 in semis
#3	John Carroll (OAC)	WON vs Capital 83-70; WON vs Mount Union 93-74; WON at Marietta 87-85 in Final
#4	Hope (MIAA)	LOST to Trine 82-77 in semis
#5	Alma (MIAA)	WON vs Albion 77-64; WON vs Trine 62-54 in Final
#6	Wooster (NCAC)	WON vs Oberlin 78-63; WON vs Hiram 92-79; LOST to Denison 92-81 in Final
#7	Mount Union (OAC)	WON vs Heidelberg 102-96; LOST at John Carroll 93-74 in semis
#8	Hiram (NCAC)	WON vs Kenyon 95-87; LOST at Wooster 92-79 in semis
#9	St. Vincent (PAC)	WON vs Chatham 80-65; WON vs Westminster 70-65; WON vs Thomas More 65-62 in Final
	DROPPING OUT
	Trine (MIAA)
MA
WK3	Team	Schedule
#1	Christopher Newport(CAC)	WON vs St. Mary's 57-56; WON vs Salisbury in 68-67 OT in Final
#2	Susquehanna (LAND)	WON vs Scranton 77-72 in semis; LOST to Catholic 83-81 in Final
#3	Salisbury (CAC)	WON vs Mary Washington 83-78; LOST at Christopher Newport 68-68 OT in Final
#4	Catholic (LAND)	WON vs Juniata 79-66; WON vs Susquehanna 83-81 in Final
#5	Scranton (LAND)	LOST to Susquehanna 77-72 in semis
#6	Franklin and Marshall (CC)	WON vs Gettysburg 74-63; WON vs Swarthmore 75-64 in Final
NE
WK3	Team	Schedule
#1	Amherst (NECAC)	WON vs Tufts 86-83 in semis; vs Middlebury in Final today
#2	Trinity (Conn.) (NESCAC)	LOST to Middlebury 70-58 in semis
#3	Tufts (NESCAC)	LOST at Amherst 86-83 in semis
#4	Babson (NEWMAC)	WON vs Emerson 74-69; vs MIT in Final today
#5	WPI (NEWMAC)   [color]	LOST to MIT 96-80 in semis
#6	Johnson & Wales (GNAC)	WON vs St. Joseph's 73-36; WON vs Emmanuel 97-79; WON vs Albertus Magnus 86-74 in Final
#7	Eastern Connecticut (LEC)	WON vs Mass-Boston 93-65; LOST to Mass-Dartmouth 60-55 in semis
#8	MIT (NEWMAC)	WON at WPI 96-80; at Babson in Final today
#9	Middlebury (NESCAC)	WON at Trinity 70-58; at Amherst in Final today
#10	Southern Vermont(NECC)	WON vs Regis 73-68; WON vs Becker 74-72 in Final
#11	Nichols (CCC)	WON vs W. New England 10768; LOST to Endicott 82-80 in semis
	DROPPING OUT
	Wesleyan (NESCAC)
SOUTH
WK3	Team	Schedule
#1	Texas Lutheran (SCAC)	WON vs Centenary 80-70; vs Colorado College in Final today
#2	Lynchburg (ODAC)	WON vs Hampden-Sydney 90-67; WON vs Emory and Henry 94-64; vs Randolph in Final today
#3	Emory (UAA)	WON at Rochester 84-74
#4	Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC)	WON vs Randolph-Macon 78-52; LOST to Randolph 69-61 in semis
#5	N.C. Wesleyan (USAC)	WON vs Averett 81-66; LOST to LaGrange 99-87 in semis
#6	LaGrange (USAC)	WON vs Ferrum 77-73; WON at N.C. Wesleyan 99-87; LOST at Covenant 101-92 OT in Final
#7	ETBU (ASC)	WON vs Mary Harin-Baylor 70-64; LOST to Louisiana College 56-44 in semis
#8	Roanoke (ODAC)	LOST to Randolph 74-62 in QFs
WEST
WK3	Team	Schedule
#1	St. Thomas (MIAC)	WON vs Bethel 63-46; vs St. Olaf in Final on Sunday
#2	Whitworth (NWC)	WON vs Puget Sound 75-58; WON vs Pacific Lutheran 75-62 in Final
#3	Whitman (NWC)	LOST to Pacific Lutheran 82-68 in semis
#4	St. John's (MIAC)	WON vs Augsburg 99-86; LOST at St. Olaf 91-80 in semis
#5	St.Olaf (MIAC)	WON vs St. John's 91-80; at St. Thomas in Final on Sunday
#6	Concordia-Moorhead (MIAC)	LOST to Bethel 67-62 in QFs
#7	Bethel (MIAC)	WON at Concordia-Moorhead 67-62; lost at St. Thomas 63-46 in semis
	DROPPING OUT
	Dubuque (IIAC)
	Augsburg (MIAC)

[/quote]

[Fifth and Putnam]

Worked out half a bracket.  Will look at again tomorrow to work out the other half and clean up mistakes.  This is more west, central, great lakes.  The top team hosts the bracket.  The Pool C's are based on my picks above.

Bracket of 16 (target 2nd weekend at Augustana or St. Thomas)
Augustana
Westimister
Hope
Ohio Wesleyan

Emory
Covenent
LaGrange
Birmingham Southern

Whitworth
bye
Chapman
Whitman

St Thomas
Northwestern
Elmhurst
UW-Oshkosh

Bracket of 16 (target 2nd weekend at Benedictine or John Carroll)

Benedictine
bye
Texas Lutheran
Hardin-Simmons

Marietta
Mt St. Joseph
Rochester
Wooster

John Carroll
Denison
Carroll
Scanton

St. Norbert
Central
North Central
Alma

Not piling on but just an FYI...the Marietta pod has a couple rematches as well. Marietta played both Mt. St. Joseph and Wooster at Wooster's holiday tournament.

[Titan Q]

My look as of Sunday morning.  I am tracking very closely with fantastic50 - just a little different order, and different final team.

Pool C Projection
Locks:
1. Marietta (OAC) 0.893/0.555/5-3, GL#1
2. Susquehanna (LAND) 0.840/0.554/4-3, MA#2
3. Plattsburgh State (SUNYAC) 0.808/0.551/4-3, EA#1
4. Salisbury (CAC) 0.778/0.562/4-3, MA#3
5. Ohio Wesleyan (NCAC) 0.852/0.525/3-2, GL#2
6. North Central (CCIW) 0.720/0.600/3-7, CE#4
7. Tufts (NESCAC) 0.769/0.562/3-5, NE#3
8. Elmhurst (CCIW) 0.778/0.542/3-5, CE#5
9. Wooster (NCAC) 0.741/0.563/3-4, GL#6
10. Oswego State (SUNYAC) 0.714/0.552/6-2, EA#5
11. Trinity (NESCAC) 0.720/0.562/2-5, NE#2
12. Scranton (LAND) 0.720/0.556/2-4, MA#5
13. Hope (MIAA) 0.913/0.504/1-1, GL#4   
14. Rochester (UAA) 0.708/0.561/3-4, EA#2
15. WPI (NEWMAC) 0.769/0.521/5-3, NE#5

Bubble:
16. LaGrange (USAC) 0.708/0.551/3-2, SO#6
17. New Jersey City (NJAC) 0.692/0.525/4-2, AT#1
18. New York University (UAA) 0.800/0.509/3-3, EA#3
19. Whitman (NWC) 0.840/0.509/1-2, WE#3
----------
20. Carroll (MWC) 0.800/0.529/0-3, CE#8
21. North Carolina Wesleyan (USAC) 0.762/0.527/1-2, SO#5
22. Bethel (MIAC) 0.667/0.548/4-6, WE#7

Sunday Bubble Burster Games (in order of significance)
1. St. Olaf winning the MIAC (St. Thomas would be Pool C #1)  3:00pm
2. MSOE winning the NACC (Benedictine would be in Pool C top 3)  3:00pm
3. Middlebury winning the NESCAC (Amherst would be in Pool C top 3)  12:00pm
4. MIT winning the NEWMAC (Babson would be in the Pool C #5-6 range) 12:00pm
5. Randolph winning the ODAC (Lynchburg would be in the Pool C #12-13 range) 3:30pm
6. Colorado College winning the SCAC (Texas Lutheran would be in the Pool C #16-17 range)  1:00pm