Pool C

[fantastic50]

Based on knightslappy's numbers (link below), and without any versus-regionally-ranked-opponents numbers, I'll take a way-too-early stab at what we might be looking at if the regular season ended today.  These are based solely on D3 winning percentage and SOS.
http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/

The format is Team (conference & region) W-L, SOS

43 Pool A Bids (current conference leaders)
UW-River Falls (WIAC CE) 12-1, 0.614
Babson (NEWMAC NE) 14-1, 0.608
Washington U. (UAA CE) 11-3, 0.639
Whitman (NWC WE) 15-0, 0.542
Tufts (NESCAC NE) 13-2, 0.572
Marietta (OAC GL) 11-4, 0.615
Augustana (CCIW CE) 12-3, 0.575
Swarthmore (CC MA) 12-3, 0.574
Catholic (LAND MA) 12-3, 0.573
Lycoming (MACC MA) 14-2, 0.531
Neumann (CSAC AT) 14-1, 0.507
Salisbury (CAC MA) 12-3, 0.549
Mount St. Joseph (HCAC GL) 12-2, 0.522
Hope (MIAA GL) 10-3, 0.551
Eastern Connecticut (LEC NE) 11-5, 0.577
--- my cut line if these teams were in Pool C instead ---
Ramapo (NJAC AT) 14-1, 0.498
St. Lawrence (LL EA) 12-2, 0.510
DeSales (MACF AT) 11-4, 0.554
Hardin-Simmons (ASC SO) 12-4, 0.546
St. John Fisher (E8 EA) 8-4, 0.575
Benedictine (NATHC ce) 11-3, 0.516
Endicott (CCC ne) 12-3, 0.508
Buena Vista (IIAC WE) 9-6, 0.583
Denison (NCAC GL) 14-1, 0.456
Castleton (NAC ne) 11-3, 0.510
Brockport (SUNYAC EA) 12-3, 0.503
St. Norbert (MWC ce) 11-2, 0.480
Guilford (ODAC SO) 13-2, 0.467
Salem State (MASCAC ne) 10-6, 0.556
La Roche (AMCC gl) 12-3, 0.490
Claremont-Mudd-Scripps (SCIAC we) 8-0, 0.413
Becker (NECC ne) 8-4, 0.522
Staten Island (CUNYAC at) 10-5, 0.521
Lasell (GNAC ne) 10-5, 0.517
St. Vincent (PrAC gl) 10-4, 0.493
Bethel (MIAC we) 10-2, 0.443
Gallaudet (NEAC ea) 11-3, 0.451
Northwestern (Minn.) (UMAC we) 11-4, 0.457
Greensboro (USAC so) 7-4, 0.484
Farmingdale State (SKY at) 9-5, 0.478
Westminster (Mo.) (SLIAC ce) 9-4, 0.449
Colorado College (SCAC we) 6-6, 0.521
Centre (SAA so) 8-6, 0.470

21 Pool C guesses, if season ended today
1) Middlebury (NESCAC NE) 12-2, 0.639
2) Rochester (UAA EA) 13-1, 0.561
3) Susquehanna (LAND MA) 12-2, 0.558
4) North Park (CCIW CE) 12-2, 0.554
5) Whitworth (NWC WE) 13-2, 0.550
6) Carthage (CCIW CE) 10-4, 0.604
7) UW-Eau Claire (WIAC CE) 11-3, 0.574
8) Illinois Wesleyan (CCIW CE) 12-4, 0.582
9) Christopher Newport (CAC MA) 13-2, 0.538
10) UW-Stout (WIAC CE) 9-3, 0.578
11) MIT (NEWMAC NE) 12-3, 0.555
12) UW-Whitewater (WIAC ce) 11-3, 0.556
13) Wesleyan (NESCAC NE) 13-3, 0.545
14) UW-Oshkosh (WIAC ce) 10-5, 0.599
15) Amherst (NESCAC NE) 10-4, 0.581
16) Loras (IIAC WE) 11-4, 0.572
17) Bates (NESCAC NE) 12-4, 0.564
18) Hanover (HCAC GL) 10-2, 0.526
19) Williams (NESCAC NE) 12-4, 0.557
20) Cabrini (CSAC AT) 10-3, 0.544
21) LeTourneau (ASC SO) 13-3, 0.526

Wrong side of the bubble
John Carroll (OAC GL) 9-5, 0.598
UW-Stevens Point (WIAC ce) 8-6, 0.615
Keene State (LEC NE) 10-5, 0.573
Wartburg (IIAC WE) 9-5, 0.579
Central (IIAC WE) 9-6, 0.594
Emory (UAA SO) 10-4, 0.550
Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC SO) 11-4, 0.541
St. Thomas (MIAC WE) 10-4, 0.547
Mass-Dartmouth (LEC NE) 10-5, 0.564
WPI (NEWMAC ne) 10-5, 0.561
Mass-Boston (LEC ne) 9-5, 0.568
Texas Lutheran (SCAC SO) 9-6, 0.584
St. Olaf (MIAC WE) 6-7, 0.634
Capital (OAC GL) 9-6, 0.582
Skidmore (LL EA) 11-5, 0.546
Rowan (NJAC AT) 10-6, 0.568
Chicago (UAA ce) 8-6, 0.587
Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC AT) 12-3, 0.500
Oswego State (SUNYAC EA) 11-4, 0.525
Hood (MACC MA) 12-4, 0.518
Randolph-Macon (ODAC SO) 10-5, 0.548
TCNJ (NJAC AT) 11-5, 0.539
Mount Union (OAC GL) 10-5, 0.545
Pomona-Pitzer (SCIAC we) 6-2, 0.513
SUNY Geneseo (SUNYAC EA) 10-5, 0.542
Ripon (MWC ce) 11-2, 0.473
Wooster (NCAC GL) 9-6, 0.565
Scranton (LAND MA) 11-4, 0.515
Hamline (MIAC we) 9-4, 0.530
Connecticut College (NESCAC ne) 9-5, 0.548
Howard Payne (ASC SO) 8-3, 0.514
Maryville (Tenn.) (USAC so) 11-3, 0.489
New Jersey City (NJAC AT) 13-3, 0.477
Nebraska Wesleyan (IIAC we) 10-3, 0.492
La Verne (SCIAC we) 10-4, 0.512

[sac]

These are always fun.

Interesting.......

21 Pool C guesses, if season ended today

7) UW-Eau Claire (WIAC CE) 11-3, 0.574
10) UW-Stout (WIAC CE) 9-3, 0.578
12) UW-Whitewater (WIAC ce) 11-3, 0.556
14) UW-Oshkosh (WIAC ce) 10-5, 0.599

I doubt 4 WIAC teams survive with criteria good enough to be legit Pool C candidates.  In conference head-to-heads will eliminate two for sure.

[fantastic50]

These are always fun.

Interesting.......

21 Pool C guesses, if season ended today

7) UW-Eau Claire (WIAC CE) 11-3, 0.574
10) UW-Stout (WIAC CE) 9-3, 0.578
12) UW-Whitewater (WIAC ce) 11-3, 0.556
14) UW-Oshkosh (WIAC ce) 10-5, 0.599

I doubt 4 WIAC teams survive with criteria good enough to be legit Pool C candidates.  In conference head-to-heads will eliminate two for sure.

Agreed.  As the six NESCAC and five WIAC teams beat up on each other, some will fall below the unofficial Mendoza line of .667 WP, and drop out of consideration despite great SOS numbers.  The Pool C berths are bunched up in the Central and Northeast regions (7 and 6, respectively), but probably won't stay that way.  However, I think that the CCIW will get four teams in (including the Pool A), and the NESCAC and WIAC might also get four.   

On the flip side, neither the ODAC nor the NCAC has a strong Pool C candidate at the moment, as conference leaders Guilford (13-2, .467) and Denison (14-1, .456) both have awful SOS numbers.  Recall that Hope was among the last Pool C teams to get in last season at 21-2, .504, and it seems that anything much below .500 SOS would be a deal-breaker.

[Fifth and Putnam]

It makes me so happy to be talking Pool C again...it's almost that time of year again friends. 

[Greek Tragedy]

These are always fun.

Interesting.......

21 Pool C guesses, if season ended today

7) UW-Eau Claire (WIAC CE) 11-3, 0.574
10) UW-Stout (WIAC CE) 9-3, 0.578
12) UW-Whitewater (WIAC ce) 11-3, 0.556
14) UW-Oshkosh (WIAC ce) 10-5, 0.599

I doubt 4 WIAC teams survive with criteria good enough to be legit Pool C candidates.  In conference head-to-heads will eliminate two for sure.

The same can be said for the CCIW as well...

[Gregory Sager]

These are always fun.

Interesting.......

21 Pool C guesses, if season ended today

7) UW-Eau Claire (WIAC CE) 11-3, 0.574
10) UW-Stout (WIAC CE) 9-3, 0.578
12) UW-Whitewater (WIAC ce) 11-3, 0.556
14) UW-Oshkosh (WIAC ce) 10-5, 0.599

I doubt 4 WIAC teams survive with criteria good enough to be legit Pool C candidates.  In conference head-to-heads will eliminate two for sure.

And keep in mind that ineligible UWSP is good enough to beat any of those teams.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Also remember a number of those SOSs that are below .500 will probably get above .500 making a team like Ramapo eligible. I actually could see two teams from the NJAC getting in this season... if all holds.

[KnightSlappy]

Also the committee may be doing 'something' to correct or account for the NCAA's SOS flaw.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Also the committee may be doing 'something' to correct or account for the NCAA's SOS flaw.

I've checked into this... still waiting to hear back as to the "solution." Hopefully by the Hoopsville Marathon at the latest I will have learned more.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

On almost any night you can expect there is something to talk about in Division III basketball. From upsets to dominating results, when thousands of games are being played there never is a moment that goes by that shouldn't be discussed.

That's what we hope to do on Hoopsville every show.

Sunday night is no different. There are plenty of upsets to discuss along with figuring out just exactly who are the best teams in the country. Sometimes that discussion means talking to those who won, those who lost, and those who are helping determine conference races.

On Sunday's show, Dave talks to several teams who are in the conversation around the country. From a men's team who ended a 72-game conference winnings streak to another men's squad whose undefeated conference run ended. Also, a women's squad who is already having the best season in four years and another being led by a man who has overcome more than most do and trying to lead by examble by staying focused despite his battled with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder.

Dave will also update a few items voted on this week at the NCAA Convention that will affect basketball starting next season.

You can watch Hoopsville live or watch it on Facebook Live (simulcast):  http://www.d3hoops.com/hoopsville/archives/2016-17/jan22. If you missed the show live, you can watch the video On Demand in the same manner or listen to or download the podcast (available when the show concludes).

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[Greek Tragedy]

IN THE CENTRAL REGION...

Halfway through the double round-robin and the CCIW is killing themselves. Could they just be a two-bid league???

Augustana   7-1   14-3
North Park   6-2   13-4
Carroll   5-3   10-7
Carthage   4-4   11-6
Illinois Wesleyan   4-4   12-5


8 more games to play in the WIAC double round-robin as well.

UW-River Falls   6-0   16-1
UW-Oshkosh   3-3   10-7
UW-Eau Claire   3-3   13-4
UW-Stout   3-3   12-5
UW-Whitewater   3-3   14-3

I don't think either team's SOS is gonna get the MWC a Pool C bid.

St. Norbert   9-1   12-3
Ripon   8-2   12-3

The NACC and the SLIAC are 1-bid leagues, unless Benedictine loses in the conference tourney.

[sac]

IN THE CENTRAL REGION...

Halfway through the double round-robin and the CCIW is killing themselves. Could they just be a two-bid league???

Augustana   7-1   14-3
North Park   6-2   13-4
Carroll   5-3   10-7
Carthage   4-4   11-6
Illinois Wesleyan   4-4   12-5


8 more games to play in the WIAC double round-robin as well.

UW-River Falls   6-0   16-1
UW-Oshkosh   3-3   10-7
UW-Eau Claire   3-3   13-4
UW-Stout   3-3   12-5
UW-Whitewater   3-3   14-3

I don't think either team's SOS is gonna get the MWC a Pool C bid.

St. Norbert   9-1   12-3
Ripon   8-2   12-3

The NACC and the SLIAC are 1-bid leagues, unless Benedictine loses in the conference tourney.

I was actually looking at the CCIW earlier today and thinking the same thing.  IF IWU duplicates their second half round-robin the same as the first they'll be out of range for a Pool C bid.  They likely have to go 6-2 with their 8th loss coming in the CCIW tournament.  No guarantee of that.

But I can also see a weird scenario where 4 teams starts to look like a possibility.

2011 was the last time the CCIW didn't get 3 in the tournament.

[Gregory Sager]

It's important to look at overall context, too, as the Central Region doesn't exist within a vacuum. First of all, there are more Pool C bids available than there were last year, thanks to the expansion of the bracket to 64 teams. Second, at least one traditionally strong region (the Great Lakes) is really down overall this year in terms of teams that are hitting their Pool C marks with regard to wins and losses at this moment. There may be other regions that are in the same boat; I know that D-Mac is always moaning about how parity is making it impossible for him to fashion a coherent Top 25 ballot, so perhaps there are other regions besides the Great Lakes that have become parity-prone. I just haven't looked into that enough yet on a region-by-region basis.

[Greek Tragedy]

That is true, Greg. There are also regions that are traditionally weak and may still be weak...sometimes not even getting one Pool C bid. So, there's a long way to go, but I've always had an over/under of 8 losses as a bench mark of where teams with strong SOSs should start worrying. I realize that's a pretty broad statement, but that's where I start worrying.

[Gregory Sager]

IN THE CENTRAL REGION...

Halfway through the double round-robin and the CCIW is killing themselves. Could they just be a two-bid league???

Augustana   7-1   14-3
North Park   6-2   13-4
Carroll   5-3   10-7
Carthage   4-4   10-6
Illinois Wesleyan   4-4   12-5


8 more games to play in the WIAC double round-robin as well.

UW-River Falls   6-0   14-1
UW-Oshkosh   3-3   10-7
UW-Eau Claire   3-3   12-4
UW-Stout   3-3   9-5
UW-Whitewater   3-3   13-3

I don't think either team's SOS is gonna get the MWC a Pool C bid.

St. Norbert   9-1   12-3
Ripon   8-2   12-3

The NACC and the SLIAC are 1-bid leagues, unless Benedictine loses in the conference tourney.

You left out the UAA duo, Tom:

Wash U    5-0   13-3
Chicago   2-3   10-6

If the first regional ranking were to come out tomorrow, Wash U would be #2 behind UWRF, with Augie third.

Also, you've posted the overall records of these Central Region teams, and that's not what either the regional or national committees will examine. They're looking at records (actually, winning percentage) against D3 teams only as a primary criterion, so I've amended the W-L records in bold to take out the wins achieved against non-D3 competition.