Pool C

[fantastic50]

Through Thursday's games...  (modified after finding another coding issue)

Officially clinched berth (1)
A) Washington U. (20-4, 0.577, 7-2 vRRO, CE#2) won UAA AQ

Locks or near-locks (15)
A) Chris Newport (24-2, 0.528, 3-2, MA#1) (#7/#7) lock, 85% CAC AQ
A) Marietta (23-4, 0.578, 4-4, GL#1) (#5/#6) lock, 83% OAC AQ
A) Babson (24-1, 0.578, 4-1, NE#1) (#2/#2) lock, 82% NEWMAC AQ
A) Whitman (26-0, 0.538, 4-0, WE#1) (#4/#4) lock, 76% NWC AQ
A) Neumann (24-2, 0.508, 6-0, AT#1) (#15/#8) lock, 75% CSAC AQ
A) UW-River Falls (21-3, 0.591, 7-3, CE#1) (#3/#3) lock, 70% WIAC AQ
A) Middlebury (22-3, 0.610, 6-3, NE#2) (#1/#1) lock, 45% NESCAC AQ
C#1) Tufts (20-5, 0.565, 4-3, NE#3) (#8/#10) lock, 30% NESCAC AQ
C#2) Susquehanna (20-5, 0.559, 4-4, MA#2) (#12/#13) lock, no AQ
C#3) Rochester (21-3, 0.532, 4-1, EA#1) (#10/#9) near-lock, no AQ
C#4) Amherst (17-7, 0.599, 5-5, NE#5) (#9/#11) near-lock, no AQ
A) Ramapo (24-2, 0.498, 6-2, AT#2) (#20/#17) near-lock, 72% NJAC AQ
A) Hardin-Simmons (20-6, 0.557, 3-1, SO#1) (#16/#15) near-lock, 39% ASC AQ
C#5) UW-Whitewater (20-6, 0.570, 3-5, CE#3) (#13/#14) near-lock, no AQ
C#6) Wesleyan (CT) (19-6, 0.560, 4-3, NE#4) (#18/#16) near-lock, no AQ

Strong position (9) (80%+ for Pool C, if no AQ)
A) Hanover (19-3, 0.520, 2-2, GL#2) (#21/#19) 99% (57% HCAC or 98% C), 99% if CF, 96% if lose out
C#7) Whitworth (23-3, 0.528, 0-2, WE#2) (#11/#22) 97% (24% NWC or 96% C), 96% if CF
C#8) New Jersey City (21-6, 0.519, 5-3, AT#3) (#41/#24) 96% (28% NJAC or 95% C), 95% if CF
A) Scranton (20-6, 0.536, 7-3, MA#5) (#29/#18) 97% (59% LAND or 93% C), 93% if CF
C#9) Williams (18-7, 0.585, 6-4, NE#6) (#14/#12) 94% (13% NESCAC or 93% C), 100% if CF, 90% if lose out
A) Lycoming (21-4, 0.530, 1-1, MA#3) (#17/#20) 98% (81% MACC or 91% C), 91% if CF
C#10) Salisbury (20-6, 0.533, 3-3, MA#6) (#30/#23) 93% (15% CAC or 91% C), 91% if CF
A) Hope (19-4, 0.520, 2-1, GL#3) (#24/#21) 96% (63% MIAA or 90% C), 93% if CF, 84% if lose out
A) Swarthmore (20-5, 0.521, 1-1, MA#4) (#31/#28) 93% (51% CC or 85% C), 90% if CF, 79% if lose out

Bubble teams if no AQ (21) (20-79% for Pool C if no AQ)
A) St John Fisher (20-5, 0.545, 0-3, EA#2) (#19/#32) 93% (72% E8 or 75% C), 81% if CF, 67% if lose out
C#11) Skidmore (19-7, 0.525, 6-1, EA#3) (#59/#25) 72% C
C#12) Wooster (19-7, 0.537, 3-5, GL#5) (#39/#37) 74% (25% NCAC or 66% C), 86% if CF, 52% if lose out
C#13) Mt St Joseph (18-5, 0.509, 2-1, GL#4) (#55/#40) 72% (22% HCAC or 65% C), 78% if CF, 52% if lose out
C#14) Cabrini (19-6, 0.531, 2-3, AT#4) (#34/#30) 60% C
C#15) St Lawrence (19-6, 0.522, 3-5, EA#4) (#44/#39) 52% C
A) Oswego State (18-6, 0.522, 3-2, EA#5) (#52/#35) 70% (39% SUNYAC or 51% C), 61% if CF, 44% if lose out
projected cut line (after more Pool C berths disappear when strong teams don't win Pool A berths)
C#16) UW-Eau Claire (17-8, 0.571, 3-4, CE#4) (#26/#42) 46% C
A) Guilford (21-5, 0.503, 3-2, SO#3) (#46/#41) 67% (41% ODAC or 44% C), 65% if CF, 30% if lose out
C#17) Illinois Wesleyan (17-8, 0.557, 6-2, CE) (#38/#36) 38% C
C#18) St Thomas (MN) (19-7, 0.530, 1-2, WE#3) (#50/#47) 38% C
C#19) Emory (17-7, 0.545, 1-3, SO#2) (#42/#44) 37% C
C#20) Brockport (19-6, 0.518, 2-3, EA#6) (#53/#43) 58% (34% SUNYAC or 36% C), 46% if CF, 26% if lose out
C#21) Concordia (TX) (18-6, 0.544, 1-3, SO#4) (#27/#31) 51% (23% ASC or 36% C), 72% if CF, 23% if lose out
C#22) MIT (19-6, 0.545, 0-4, NE#7) (#25/#48) 45% (14% NEWMAC or 36% C), 48% if CF, 16% if lose out
A) Benedictine (IL) (21-3, 0.491, 1-0, CE#7) (#32/#52) 75% (63% NACC or 32% C), 48% if CF, 15% if lose out
A) E Connecticut (18-8, 0.565, 3-4, NE#8) (#28/#29) 68% (53% LEC or 32% C), 44% if CF, 14% if lose out
A) Carthage (17-7, 0.550, 2-2, CE#6) (#35/#27) 62% (45% CCIW or 31% C), 57% if CF, 10% if lose out
C#23) Augustana (18-7, 0.535, 2-2, CE#5) (#48/#38) 45% (21% CCIW or 31% C), 54% if CF, 17% if lose out
C#24) UW-Oshkosh (17-9, 0.592, 5-5, CE#8) (#22/#51) 50% (30% WIAC or 29% C), 29% if CF
C#25) Keene State (18-8, 0.571, 2-3, NE#9) (#23/#26) 44% (24% LEC or 26% C), 55% if CF, 7% if lose out

Longshots for Pool C (5) (10%-19% if no AQ)
C#26) Denison (22-4, 0.466, 3-2, GL#7) (#74/#80) 30% (18% NCAC or 15% C), 37% if CF, 5% if lose out
C#27) Endicott (22-5, 0.511, 1-1, NE#10) (#33/#34) 49% (42% CCC or 12% C), 12% if CF
C#28) LeTourneau (21-4, 0.482, 1-1, SO#5) (#62/#67) 41% (33% ASC or 12% C), 31% if CF, 1% if lose out
C#29) St John's (MN) (19-7, 0.510, 2-3, WE) (#73/#56) 41% (34% MIAC or 10% C), 10% if CF
C#30) Nebraska Wesleyan (17-7, 0.525, 1-1, WE#5) (#67/#53) 10% C

Real Longshots for Pool C
C#31) Loras (18-8, 0.548, 1-1, WE#4) (#43/#49) 7% C
A) St Norbert (19-4, 0.501, 1-2, CE) (#40/#50) 58% (55% MWC or 5% C), 8% if CF, 1% if lose out
A) C-M-S (18-3, 0.485, 1-1, WE#6) (#45/#62) 50% (48% SCIAC or 5% C), 8% if CF, 1% if lose out
C#32) John Carroll (17-8, 0.559, 2-5, GL#6) (#37/#55) 5% C
C#33) Moravian (18-6, 0.521, 5-4, MA#8) (#56/#33) 43% (41% LAND or 4% C), 4% if CF
C#34) North Park (18-7, 0.525, 2-2, CE) (#63/#46) 24% (21% CCIW or 3% C), 9% if CF

Other conference favorites (not realistic Pool C candidates)
A) Staten Island (20-5, 0.499, 0-4, AT#7) (#57/#71) 73% CUNYAC
A) Albertus Magnus (22-4, 0.485, 0-2, NE) (#54/#75) 72% GNAC
A) So Vermont (17-8, 0.496, 0-2, NE) (#123/#101) 71% NECC
A) Farmingdale State (19-7, 0.479, 0-2, AT) (#117/#99) 67% SKY
A) Bethel (MN) (19-6, 0.495, 2-3, WE) (#78/#65) 66% MIAC
A) Misericordia (19-7, 0.513, 1-4, AT) (#71/#59) 66% MACF
A) Husson (19-6, 0.488, 0-0, NE) (#94/#82) 64% NAC
A) Salem State (16-10, 0.517, 1-4, NE) (#129/#128) 63% MASCAC
A) Central (IA) (16-11, 0.556, 2-6, WE) (#85/#126) 61% IIAC
A) Union (NY) (15-9, 0.534, 1-6, EA#8) (#97/#114) 59% LL
A) Nichols (22-5, 0.476, 1-1, NE) (#77/#79) 58% CCC
A) St Vincent (20-6, 0.490, 1-0, GL) (#84/#73) 57% PAC
A) Medaille (19-5, 0.460, 0-0, GL) (#113/#112) 54% AMCC
A) Northwestern (MN) (18-7, 0.455, 0-0, WE) (#166/#132) 53% UMAC
A) Rhodes (14-10, 0.449, 0-1, SO) (#260/#219) 53% SAA
A) Greenville (IL) (19-5, 0.461, 0-0, CE) (#109/#110) 50% SLIAC
A) Ohio Wesleyan (20-6, 0.503, 2-3, GL#8) (#66/#57) 49% NCAC
A) Morrisville State (20-5, 0.464, 0-0, EA) (#101/#104) 48% NEAC
A) Schreiner (14-11, 0.551, 0-5, SO) (#106/#156) 43% SCAC
A) Averett (12-13, 0.523, 1-3, SO) (#201/#209) 32% USAC

[fantastic50]

It seems that semifinal Friday is the big day for bubble teams, some of whom could greatly improve their Pool C chances by reaching a conference final against a regionally-ranked opponent.
(Note: The "at" here doesn't necessarily indicate a true road game; I need to go back and fix that.)

Concordia (TX) (18-6, 0.544, 1-3, SO#4) 72%/23% at LeTourneau (21-4, 0.482, 1-1, SO#5) 31%/1%
Wooster (19-7, 0.537, 3-5, GL#5) 86%/52% at Denison (22-4, 0.466, 3-2, GL#7) 37%/5%
Keene State (18-8, 0.571, 2-3, NE#9) 55%/7% at Mass-Dartmouth (17-9, 0.548, 4-2)
N Central (IL) (15-9, 0.548, 1-4) at Carthage (17-7, 0.550, 2-2, CE#6) 57%/10%
Augustana (18-7, 0.535, 2-2, CE#5) 54%/17% at North Park (18-7, 0.525, 2-2)
Wisconsin Lutheran (16-10, 0.475, 0-2) at Benedictine (IL) (21-3, 0.491, 1-0, CE#7) 48%/15%
Mass-Boston (13-12, 0.533, 2-6) at E Connecticut (18-8, 0.565, 3-4, NE#8) 44%/14%
Brockport (19-6, 0.518, 2-3, EA#6) 46%/26% at SUNY Oneonta (16-10, 0.530, 3-6)
Buffalo State (15-8, 0.522, 3-5) at Oswego State (18-6, 0.522, 3-2, EA#5) 61%/44%
Nazareth (15-10, 0.524, 2-3) at St John Fisher (20-5, 0.545, 0-3, EA#2) 81%/67%
Ursinus (15-11, 0.508, 0-2) at Swarthmore (20-5, 0.521, 1-1, MA#4) 90%/79%

Bubble-dwellers want to see Hope win in the MIAA tonight, as well.

[KnightSlappy]

Oshkosh declawed the Whitewater Warhawks tonight in WIAC semifinal.  The men in purple did not look good tonight.  But I know only the numbers matter.  Pat Coleman has now trained me to shut up,  sit in the corner and pound on my calculator to determine who is the best team.   

I'll bite. How else do you determine who is the best team in Division III? Don't tell me the eye test. No one has seen all 400+ teams this year, much less multiple times. Committee members have gone on Hoopsville and talked about how they have to trust the numbers because, although they do watch a lot of action around the country, they simply can't see everyone in meaningful sample sizes.

[AppletonRocks]

Oshkosh declawed the Whitewater Warhawks tonight in WIAC semifinal.  The men in purple did not look good tonight.  But I know only the numbers matter.  Pat Coleman has now trained me to shut up,  sit in the corner and pound on my calculator to determine who is the best team.   

I'll bite. How else do you determine who is the best team in Division III? Don't tell me the eye test. No one has seen all 400+ teams this year, much less multiple times. Committee members have gone on Hoopsville and talked about how they have to trust the numbers because, although they do watch a lot of action around the country, they simply can't see everyone in meaningful sample sizes.

I respect that.  But the numbers could tell who was playing well NOW vs. later.  Winning later, especially in a tough conference, should be worth more than a perfect pre-season record but a modestly successful league season.  A November game and a Febraury game have the same value.   But as I said, I don't have the solution, but trend could easily be considered like it is in the D1 committee selections.

[Titan Q]

Central Region Pool C thoughts - http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4592.msg1793238#msg1793238.

[fantastic50]

So, I found another coding issue  , this one related to how poor SOS gets penalized.  I have also come to the conclusion, looking at regional rankings, that .700 WP might be the new .720 WP, and that even something in the high .600s might be okay this year, given parity and two more Pool C berths.  Making those two fixes (shown above) explained some of the regional rankings questions that I had, and changed some teams positions substantially (putting IWU back into play, for one).

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Oshkosh declawed the Whitewater Warhawks tonight in WIAC semifinal.  The men in purple did not look good tonight.  But I know only the numbers matter.  Pat Coleman has now trained me to shut up,  sit in the corner and pound on my calculator to determine who is the best team.   

I'll bite. How else do you determine who is the best team in Division III? Don't tell me the eye test. No one has seen all 400+ teams this year, much less multiple times. Committee members have gone on Hoopsville and talked about how they have to trust the numbers because, although they do watch a lot of action around the country, they simply can't see everyone in meaningful sample sizes.

I respect that.  But the numbers could tell who was playing well NOW vs. later.  Winning later, especially in a tough conference, should be worth more than a perfect pre-season record but a modestly successful league season.  A November game and a Febraury game have the same value.   But as I said, I don't have the solution, but trend could easily be considered like it is in the D1 committee selections.

Yes... a November and February game have the same value. That is true in all sports. Late August football game is equal to mid-November. February lacrosse or baseball equal to late April games. That is how all NCAA selections in all divisions, best I know, work EXCEPT Division I basketball. To change that, you need to change the position of all sports across the board. That isn't going to happen. There is a strong feeling that rewarding a team for how they finished the last ten games as if the first ten didn't matter (not pre-season games, by the way; can we please stop calling non-conference games pre-season games? What do you call them if they are played after conference games start?) is not fair nor does it represent what a team has done over a season.

Sure, I can see a lot of examples of where that isn't "fair." Amherst is 8-6 since the start of 2017. They may make the tournament because they had such a strong finish. It happens.

But you have to understand, this isn't a basketball-only decision when it comes to criteria. You can read criteria from countless handbooks and the same structure and base criteria is the same for all of them.

I will also say, because of how conference schedules constantly change and move in terms of when you play certain teams... talking about how a team finishes compared to another is a dynamic that is grossly unfair. Some team can go with just two losses in the final ten because they ran the last part against the bottom of the conference where as another team suffered four losses because they played nothing but the top of the conference. It isn't a fair comparison. Leave it Division I where it doesn't even belong. Too many teams get "rewarded" because they finished a season strong despite stinking the entire time.

[fantastic50]

Only one significant result from the early games ... Brockport's bubble gets thin after a SUNYAC semifinal loss to Oneonta, leaving them at 19-7, .522 SOS, 2-3 vRRO.

[Knightstalker]

Ramapo wins the NJAC putting NJCU into the Pool C mix at 21-7.

[AppletonRocks]

Oshkosh declawed the Whitewater Warhawks tonight in WIAC semifinal.  The men in purple did not look good tonight.  But I know only the numbers matter.  Pat Coleman has now trained me to shut up,  sit in the corner and pound on my calculator to determine who is the best team.   

I'll bite. How else do you determine who is the best team in Division III? Don't tell me the eye test. No one has seen all 400+ teams this year, much less multiple times. Committee members have gone on Hoopsville and talked about how they have to trust the numbers because, although they do watch a lot of action around the country, they simply can't see everyone in meaningful sample sizes.

I respect that.  But the numbers could tell who was playing well NOW vs. later.  Winning later, especially in a tough conference, should be worth more than a perfect pre-season record but a modestly successful league season.  A November game and a Febraury game have the same value.   But as I said, I don't have the solution, but trend could easily be considered like it is in the D1 committee selections.

Yes... a November and February game have the same value. That is true in all sports. Late August football game is equal to mid-November. February lacrosse or baseball equal to late April games. That is how all NCAA selections in all divisions, best I know, work EXCEPT Division I basketball. To change that, you need to change the position of all sports across the board. That isn't going to happen. There is a strong feeling that rewarding a team for how they finished the last ten games as if the first ten didn't matter (not pre-season games, by the way; can we please stop calling non-conference games pre-season games? What do you call them if they are played after conference games start?) is not fair nor does it represent what a team has done over a season.

Sure, I can see a lot of examples of where that isn't "fair." Amherst is 8-6 since the start of 2017. They may make the tournament because they had such a strong finish. It happens.

But you have to understand, this isn't a basketball-only decision when it comes to criteria. You can read criteria from countless handbooks and the same structure and base criteria is the same for all of them.

I will also say, because of how conference schedules constantly change and move in terms of when you play certain teams... talking about how a team finishes compared to another is a dynamic that is grossly unfair. Some team can go with just two losses in the final ten because they ran the last part against the bottom of the conference where as another team suffered four losses because they played nothing but the top of the conference. It isn't a fair comparison. Leave it Division I where it doesn't even belong. Too many teams get "rewarded" because they finished a season strong despite stinking the entire time.

I hear Dave Mason singing 

[kiko]

Oshkosh declawed the Whitewater Warhawks tonight in WIAC semifinal.  The men in purple did not look good tonight.  But I know only the numbers matter.  Pat Coleman has now trained me to shut up,  sit in the corner and pound on my calculator to determine who is the best team.   

I'll bite. How else do you determine who is the best team in Division III? Don't tell me the eye test. No one has seen all 400+ teams this year, much less multiple times. Committee members have gone on Hoopsville and talked about how they have to trust the numbers because, although they do watch a lot of action around the country, they simply can't see everyone in meaningful sample sizes.

Why are you feeding the trolls?

[fantastic50]

So far tonight, St John Fisher and Wooster both move up from the bubble to strong Pool C positions with semifinal wins.  Oswego, Benedictine, Keene St, Augustana, and Eastern Connecticut improved their positions in the bubble group, and LeTourneau moves up to the bubble.  On the flip side, the Pool C chances of Concordia(TX), Carthage drop with losses, and Denison is probably out of contention.

For now, my last few in are Keene St, MSJ, St Lawrence, and UW-Eau Claire, with St Thomas, IWU, and MIT out.  Emory's fate likely rests in their own hands tomorrow, in a non-tournament game.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Bubble team Mount St Joseph took a hit tonight without playing. With Manchester upsetting Anderson in the 1st round of the HCAC tourney, the Lions will go from playing a team that would have been 18-8 had they won to a team that is only 10-16. Considering MSJ has a SoS that's not much above .500 that could be big.

[Greek Tragedy]

In my mock Pool C selections, I had Emory the only team coming out of the South. It will be interesting if Emory loses today to Rochester. Guilford won their QF game and plays a hot VWC team. I wonder if their 1-1 record will be enough to jump Emory's 0-1 record if Guilford loses today. LeTourneau will go 2-1 if they lose and they are sure to jump Concordia Texas.

In the Central, it will be interesting if Augustana jumps Eau Claire  (0-1 this week) if they lose to NCC in the CCIW final. Either way, they don't have a great SoS.

In the Northeast, will Williams' win over Amherst knock the Lord Jeffs out of the NCAAs.

[Titan Q]

Pool C projection through play of Friday 2/24.  Note, this is a snapshot as of today - teams will continue to move up and down with each result.

(Data courtesy of Matt Snyder - http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/.)

Tier 1 - Projected In Easily/No Drama
1. Middlebury (NE/NESCAC): .880/.610/6-3  vs Trinity, NESCAC semis
2. UW-Whitewater (C/WIAC): .769/.568/3-5   done
3. Susquehanna (MA/LAND): .800/.556/4-4   done
4. Rochester (E/UAA): .875/.527/4-1   at Emory
5. Amherst (NE/NESCAC): .708/.597/5-5   done
6. Williams (NE/NESCAC): .720/.586/6-4   at Tufts, NESCAC semis
7. Wooster (GL/NCAC): .741/.546/4-5   at Ohio Wesleyan, NCAC final
8. Wesleyan (NE/NESCAC): .760/.560/4-3   done
9. Salisbury (MA/CAC): .769/.532/3-3   at Christopher Newport, CAC final
10. New Jersey City (AT/NJAC): .750/.532/5-4   done

Tier 2 - Projected In
11. St. Lawrence (E/LL): .769/.525/3-5   done
12. Cabrini (AT/CSAC): .760/.531/2-3   done
13. Skidmore (E/LL): .731/.526/6-1   done
14. Keene State (NE/LEC): .704/.572/3-3   at Eastern Conn, LEC final
15. Whitworth (W/NWC): .885/.526/0-2   at Whitman, NWC final

Tier 3 - The Bubble/At the mercy of upsets
16. UW-Eau Claire (C/WIAC): .680/.570/3-4   done
17. llinois Wesleyan (C/CCIW): .680/.556/6-2   done
18. Brockport (E/SUYAC): .731/.523/2-3   done
19. St. Thomas (W/MIAC): .731/.529/1-2   done
20. Guilford (S/ODAC): .808/.501/3-2   vs Virginia Wesleyan, ODAC semis
21. Mount St. Joseph (GL/HCAC): .792/.511/2-1   vs Manchester, HCAC semis

Projected Out
22. MIT (NE/NEWMAC): .760/.539/0-4  at WPI, NEWMAC semis
23. John Carroll (GL/OAC): .680/.560/2-5   done
24. Carthage (C/CCIW): .680/.552/2-2   done
25. Concordia TX (S/ASC): .708/.550/1-4   done
26. Emory (S/UAA): .708/.539/1-3   vs Rochester
27. UW-Oshkosh (C/WIAC): .654/.592/5-5   at UW-River Falls, WIAC final
28. North Park (C/CCIW: .692/.532/2-3   done
29. Loras (W/IIAC): .692/.547/1-1  done
30. St. Norbert (C/MWC): .792/.504/1-2   done
31. LeTourneau (S/ASC): .833/.496/2-1   vs Hardin-Simmons, ASC final