Pool C

[sac]

7. Wooster (GL/NCAC): .741/.546/4-5   at Ohio Wesleyan, NCAC final
18. John Carroll (GL/OAC): .680/.560/2-5   done
24. Mount St. Joseph (GL/HCAC): .792/.511/2-1   vs Manchester, HCAC semis

These are your Great Lakes teams.  Mt. St. Joseph has been ranked ahead of JCU and Wooster in all 3 polls.  MSJ holds a very key head-to-head win over JCU.  JCU has head-to-head losses to MSJ, Hanover and Hope  (3 teams all ranked ahead of them) plus 1-1 vs #1 ranked Marietta .  It seems to me pretty close to impossible for JCU to be ranked ahead of MSJ.  Remember JCU exited the OAC tournament in the quarterfinal.

I see where you're going with Wooster's criteria, but definition of Pool C is another loss for Wooster, if MSJ makes the HCAC title game, I don't see Wooster moving ahead of MSJ either.

[fantastic50]

Here's what I have through Friday's games...

Probabilities are based on 5,000 simulations of remaining games and auto mock selection process.  Rankings are pseudo-RPI (via 2 wins = .030 SOS) followed by a ranking adjusted for WP<.700 & SOS<.510, number of wins vRRO, and based on regional rankings order.

Officially clinched berth (3)
A) Washington U. (20-4, 0.578, 7-2, CE#2) (#6/#5) won UAA AQ
A) Ramapo (25-2, 0.506, 7-2, AT#2) (#16/#12) won NJAC AQ
A) Staten Island (21-5, 0.506, 0-4, AT#7) (#44/#64) won CUNYAC AQ

Locks or near-locks (15)
A) Chris Newport (24-2, 0.529, 3-2, MA#1) (#7/#7) lock, 86% CAC AQ
A) Marietta (23-4, 0.578, 4-4, GL#1) (#5/#6) lock, 83% OAC AQ
A) Babson (24-1, 0.578, 4-1, NE#1) (#2/#2) lock, 81% NEWMAC AQ
A) Whitman (26-0, 0.539, 4-0, WE#1) (#4/#4) lock, 76% NWC AQ
A) Neumann (24-2, 0.508, 6-0, AT#1) (#15/#8) lock, 74% CSAC AQ
A) UW-River Falls (21-3, 0.590, 7-3, CE#1) (#3/#3) lock, 71% WIAC AQ
A) Middlebury (22-3, 0.612, 6-3, NE#2) (#1/#1) lock, 45% NESCAC AQ
C#1) Susquehanna (20-5, 0.560, 4-4, MA#2) (#11/#14) lock, no AQ
C#2) Tufts (20-5, 0.564, 4-3, NE#3) (#9/#11) near-lock, 31% NESCAC AQ
C#3) Hardin-Simmons (21-6, 0.556, 3-1, SO#1) (#18/#15) near-lock, 47% ASC AQ
C#4) Rochester (21-3, 0.532, 4-1, EA#1) (#10/#9) near-lock, no AQ
C#5) Wesleyan (CT) (19-6, 0.560, 4-3, NE#4) (#19/#17) near-lock, no AQ
C#6) Amherst (17-7, 0.600, 5-5, NE#5) (#8/#10) near-lock, no AQ
C#7) UW-Whitewater (20-6, 0.570, 3-5, CE#3) (#13/#16) near-lock, no AQ
A) Lycoming (21-4, 0.530, 1-1, MA#3) (#20/#21) near-lock, 83% MACC AQ

Strong position (10) (80%+ for Pool C, if no AQ)
A) Hanover (19-3, 0.519, 2-2, GL#2) (#21/#19) 99% (61% HCAC or 98% C), 99% if CF, 98% if lose out
C#8) Whitworth (23-3, 0.527, 0-2, WE#2) (#12/#23) 98% (24% NWC or 97% C)
C#9) New Jersey City (21-7, 0.533, 5-4, AT#3) (#38/#27) 97% C
A) Scranton (20-6, 0.536, 7-3, MA#5) (#30/#18) 98% (59% LAND or 95% C)
C#10) Williams (18-7, 0.586, 6-4, NE#6) (#14/#13) 95% (13% NESCAC or 95% C), 100% if CF, 92% if lose out
C#11) Salisbury (20-6, 0.535, 3-3, MA#6) (#33/#25) 94% (14% CAC or 93% C)
A) Hope (20-4, 0.521, 2-1, GL#3) (#24/#22) 98% (73% MIAA or 92% C)
A) Swarthmore (21-5, 0.524, 1-1, MA#4) (#27/#29) 97% (72% CC or 89% C)
C#12) Wooster (20-7, 0.546, 4-5, GL#5) (#32/#26) 93% (37% NCAC or 89% C)
A) St John Fisher (21-5, 0.549, 0-3, EA#2) (#17/#30) 98% (81% E8 or 88% C)

Bubble teams if no AQ (19) (20-79% for Pool C if no AQ)
C#13) Skidmore (19-7, 0.524, 6-1, EA#3) (#62/#28) 74% C
C#14) Cabrini (19-6, 0.532, 2-3, AT#4) (#34/#32) 64% C
A) Oswego State (19-6, 0.526, 3-2, EA#5) (#42/#31) 88% (70% SUNYAC or 61% C)
A) Augustana (19-7, 0.540, 2-2, CE#5) (#40/#33) 83% (58% CCIW or 60% C)
C#15) Keene State (19-8, 0.574, 3-3, NE#9) (#22/#20) 74% (36% LEC or 59% C)
C#16) Mt St Joseph (18-5, 0.509, 2-1, GL#4) (#54/#39) 68% (26% HCAC or 56% C), 69% if CF, 30% if lose out
C#17) St Lawrence (19-6, 0.523, 3-5, EA#4) (#47/#38) 55% C
A) E Connecticut (19-8, 0.565, 3-4, NE#8) (#26/#24) 83% (64% LEC or 52% C)
projected cut line (after more Pool C berths disappear when strong teams don't win Pool A berths)
A) Guilford (21-5, 0.504, 3-2, SO#3) (#49/#40) 70% (41% ODAC or 49% C), 70% if CF, 33% if lose out
A) Benedictine (IL) (22-3, 0.496, 1-0, CE#7) (#28/#41) 88% (76% NACC or 48% C)
C#18) UW-Eau Claire (17-8, 0.571, 3-4, CE#4) (#29/#42) 48% C
C#19) St Thomas (MN) (19-7, 0.530, 1-2, WE#3) (#52/#45) 43% C
C#20) Illinois Wesleyan (17-8, 0.557, 6-2, CE) (#41/#36) 41% C
C#21) Emory (17-7, 0.544, 1-3, SO#2) (#43/#43) 38% C, 92% if win today, 4% if loss
C#22) MIT (19-6, 0.544, 0-4, NE#7) (#25/#48) 46% (14% NEWMAC or 37% C), 48% if CF, 17% if lose out
A) LeTourneau (22-4, 0.490, 2-1, SO#5) (#48/#55) 70% (53% ASC or 36% C)
C#23) UW-Oshkosh (17-9, 0.592, 5-5, CE#8) (#23/#50) 51% (29% WIAC or 30% C)
C#24) Brockport (19-7, 0.522, 2-3, EA#6) (#63/#47) 28% C
C#25) Concordia (TX) (18-7, 0.554, 1-4, SO#4) (#31/#37) 27% C

Longshots for Pool C (9) (5-19% if no AQ)
C#26) Endicott (22-5, 0.511, 1-1, NE#10) (#35/#35) 51% (42% CCC or 14% C)
C#27) Nebraska Wesleyan (17-7, 0.526, 1-1, WE#5) (#67/#52) 13% C
C#28) St John's (MN) (19-7, 0.510, 2-3, WE) (#76/#56) 42% (34% MIAC or 12% C)
C#29) Carthage (17-8, 0.553, 2-2, CE#6) (#46/#53) 12% C
A) C-M-S (19-3, 0.491, 1-1, WE#6) (#37/#58) 62% (58% SCIAC or 10% C)
C#30) Loras (18-8, 0.548, 1-1, WE#4) (#45/#49) 10% C
C#31) Moravian (18-6, 0.520, 5-4, MA#8) (#57/#34) 44% (41% LAND or 5% C)
C#32) John Carroll (17-8, 0.559, 2-5, GL#6) (#39/#54) 5% C
C#33) Denison (22-5, 0.475, 3-3, GL#7) (#79/#77) 5% C

Other conference favorites (not realistic Pool C candidates)
A) Husson (20-6, 0.490, 0-0, NE) (#87/#80) 80% NAC
A) Albertus Magnus (22-4, 0.485, 0-2, NE) (#56/#75) 73% GNAC
A) Greenville (IL) (20-5, 0.465, 0-0, CE) (#100/#104) 71% SLIAC
A) So Vermont (17-8, 0.496, 0-2, NE) (#124/#99) 70% NECC
A) Ripon (19-5, 0.488, 1-1, CE) (#75/#72) 69% MWC
A) Farmingdale State (19-7, 0.479, 0-2, AT) (#119/#100) 67% SKY
A) Bethel (MN) (19-6, 0.495, 2-3, WE) (#80/#67) 66% MIAC
A) Misericordia (19-7, 0.512, 1-4, AT) (#74/#61) 64% MACF
A) Salem State (16-10, 0.517, 1-4, NE) (#130/#128) 63% MASCAC
A) Ohio Wesleyan (21-6, 0.508, 2-3, GL#8) (#58/#46) 63% NCAC
A) Central (IA) (16-11, 0.557, 2-6, WE) (#83/#122) 60% IIAC
A) Methodist (16-9, 0.488, 1-1, SO) (#161/#136) 60% USAC
A) Nichols (22-5, 0.476, 1-1, NE) (#78/#79) 58% CCC
A) Union (NY) (15-9, 0.534, 1-6, EA#8) (#98/#113) 58% LL
A) St Vincent (20-6, 0.490, 1-0, GL) (#88/#73) 57% PAC
A) Medaille (19-5, 0.459, 0-0, GL) (#115/#117) 56% AMCC
A) Rhodes (15-10, 0.444, 0-1, SO) (#260/#210) 54% SAA
A) Northwestern (MN) (18-7, 0.455, 0-0, WE) (#170/#133) 53% UMAC
A) Morrisville State (20-5, 0.463, 0-0, EA) (#102/#106) 46% NEAC
A) Schreiner (14-11, 0.552, 0-5, SO) (#103/#155) 41% SCAC

[KnightSlappy]

Wooster also gained an RRO and SOS boost over Denison. MSJ added nothing like that.

I'd  lock in Wooster over MSJ in the next rankings.

[fantastic50]

Today's bubble games
Percentages are Pool-C-bid-if-needed probabilities with win/loss today
12:00 Rochester (21-3, 0.532, 4-1, EA#1, lock) at Emory (17-7, 0.544, 1-3, SO#2) 92%/4%
1:00 VA Wesleyan (19-8, 0.528, 1-6) vs Guilford (21-5, 0.504, 3-2, SO#3) 70%/33%
7:00 Mt St Joseph (18-5, 0.509, 2-1, GL#4) 69%/30% vs Manchester (10-15, 0.504, 0-4)
7:30 MIT (19-6, 0.544, 0-4, NE#7) 48%/17% vs WPI (17-8, 0.536, 2-5)

Potential "bid thief" games
If these go the "wrong way", highly-ranked teams will drop into Pool C.  Bubble teams want the bold-ed teams to win these.
2:00 Gwynedd Mercy (21-6, 0.496, 1-5, AT) at Neumann (24-2, 0.508, 6-0, AT#1)
3:00 Wheaton (MA) (11-15, 0.512, 0-4, NE) at Babson (24-1, 0.578, 4-1, NE#1)
4:00 Moravian (18-6, 0.520, 5-4, MA#8) at Scranton (20-6, 0.536, 7-3, MA#5)
4:00 Stevens (18-7, 0.487, 1-2, EA) at St John Fisher (21-5, 0.549, 0-3, EA#2)
4:00 Wooster (20-7, 0.546, 4-5, GL#5) at Ohio Wesleyan (21-6, 0.508, 2-3, GL#8)
4:00 SUNY Oneonta (17-10, 0.536, 4-6, EA) at Oswego State (19-6, 0.526, 3-2, EA#5)
4:00 Trinity (CT) (16-9, 0.564, 2-8, NE) at Middlebury (22-3, 0.612, 6-3, NE#2)
5:00 Albright (13-13, 0.552, 1-4, MA) at Lycoming (21-4, 0.530, 1-1, MA#3)
5:00 Transylvania (16-9, 0.506, 3-2, GL) at Hanover (19-3, 0.519, 2-2, GL#2)
7:00 Dickinson (16-10, 0.522, 0-4, MA) at Swarthmore (21-5, 0.524, 1-1, MA#4)
7:00 Hardin-Simmons (21-6, 0.556, 3-1, SO#1) at LeTourneau (22-4, 0.490, 2-1, SO#5)
7:30 Calvin (15-8, 0.504, 2-3, GL) at Hope (20-4, 0.521, 2-1, GL#3)
7:30 Baldwin-Wallace (15-12, 0.527, 2-6, GL) at Marietta (23-4, 0.578, 4-4, GL#1)
8:00 N Central (IL) (16-9, 0.552, 2-4, CE) at Augustana (19-7, 0.540, 2-2, CE#5)
8:00 UW-Oshkosh (17-9, 0.592, 5-5, CE#8) at UW-River Falls (21-3, 0.590, 7-3, CE#1)

[fantastic50]

Pool C projection through play of Friday 2/24...

(Data courtesy of Matt Snyder - http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/.)

Tier 1 - Projected In Easily/No Drama
1. Middlebury (NE/NESCAC): .880/.610/6-3  vs Trinity, NESCAC semis
2. UW-Whitewater (C/WIAC): .769/.568/3-5   done
3. Susquehana (MA/LAND): .800/.556/4-4   done
4. Rochester (E/UAA): .875/.527/4-1   at Emory
5. Amherst (NE/NESCAC): .708/.597/5-5   done
6. Williams (NE/NESCAC): .720/.586/6-4   at Tufts, NESCAC semis
7. Wooster (GL/NCAC): .741/.546/4-5   at Ohio Wesleyan, NCAC final
8. Wesleyan (NE/NESCAC): .760/.560/4-3   done
9. Salisbury (MA/CAC): .769/.532/3-3   at Christopher Newport, CAC final
10. New Jersey City (AT/NJAC): .750/.532/5-4   done

Tier 2 - Projected In
11. St. Lawrence (E/LL): .769/.525/3-5   done
12. Cabrini (AT/CSAC): .760/.531/2-3   done
13. Skidmore (E/LL): .731/.526/6-1   done
14. Keene State (NE/LEC): .704/.572/3-3   at Eastern Conn, LEC final
15. Whitworth (W/NWC): .885/.526/0-2   at Whitman, NWC final

Tier 3 - The Bubble/At the mercy of upsets
16. UW-Eau Claire (C/WIAC): .680/.570/3-4   done
17. llinois Wesleyan (C/CCIW): .680/.556/6-2   done
18. John Carroll (GL/OAC): .680/.560/2-5   done
19. Carthage (C/CCIW): .680/.552/2-2   done
20. Brockport (E/SUYAC): .731/.523/2-3   done
21. Guilford (S/ODAC): .808/.501/3-2   vs Virginia Wesleyan, ODAC semis

Projected Out
22. Concordia TX (S/ASC): .708/.550/1-4   done
23. MIT (NE/NEWMAC): .760/.539/0-4  at WPI, NEWMAC semis
24. Mount St. Joseph (GL/HCAC): .792/.511/2-1   vs Manchester, HCAC semis
25. St. Thomas (W/MIAC): .731/.529/1-2   done
26. Emory (S/UAA): .708/.539/1-3   vs Rochester
27. UW-Oshkosh (C/WIAC): .654/.592/5-5   at UW-River Falls, WIAC final
28. North Park (C/CCIW: .692/.532/2-3   done
29. Loras (W/IIAC): .692/.547/1-1  done
30. St. Norbert (C/MWC): .792/.504/1-2   done
31. LeTourneau (S/ASC): .833/.496/2-1   vs Hardin-Simmons, ASC final

It will be interesting to see what the committee does with the WP<.700 teams.  I have MIT, MSJ, St Thomas competing for those last Pool C berths, instead of JCU, Carthage, etc.

[Greek Tragedy]

Relevant Pool C games

ASC Championship
HSU v LeTourneau - #1S HSU near lock, #5 LeTourneau not look good, should jump #4 Con Tex

CAC Championship
Salisbury v CNU - #1MA CNU lock, #6 Salisbury not looking good

CC Championship
Dickinson v Swarthmore - #4MA Swarthmore on the fence

CCIW Championship
NCC v Augustana - #5C Augustana on the fence

CSAC Championship
Gwynedd Mercy v Neumann - #1A Neumann near lock

CCC Championship
Endicott v Nichols - #10NE Endicott not looking good

MACC Championship
Albright v Lycoming - #3MA Lycoming near lock

Empire 8 Championship
Stevens v SJF - #2E SJF looking good

HCAC semis
Transylvania v Hanover - #3GL Hanover good shape
Manchester v Mt St Joseph #5GL MSJ on the fence

Landmark Championship
Scranton v Moravian - #5MA Scranton on the fence, #8MA Moravian not looking good

Liberty Championship
Hobart v Union - #8E Union not looking good

LEC Championship
Keene St v E. Connecticut - #8NE and #9NE not looking good

MIAA Championship
Calvin v Hope - #3GL Hope looking good

NESCAC semis
Williams v Tufts - #6NE Williams good shape, #3NE Tufts near lock
Trinity v Middlebury - #2NE Middlebury solid lock

NEWMAC semis
Springfield v Babson - #1NE Babson is a lock
MIT v WPI - #7NE MIT on the fence

NCAC Championship
Wooster v Ohio Wesleyan #5GL Wooster on the fence, #8GL OWU not looking good

NACC Championship
Concordia (WI) v Benedictine - #7C Benedictine not looking good

NWC Championship
Whitworth v Whitman - #2W and #1W should be locks

OAC Championship
Baldwin Wallace v Marietta - #1GL Marietta a lock

ODAC semis
VWC v Guilford - #8S VWC not looking good, #3S Guilford on the fence
Washington and Lee v Emory and Henry - #7S Emory and Henry not looking good

SCIAC Championship
Cal Lutheran v CMS - #8W and #6W not looking good

SUNYAC Championship
Oneonta v Oswego St - #5E Oswego on the fence

WIAC Championship
Oshkosh v River Falls - #8C Oshkosh not looking good, #1 River Falls is a lock

UAA regular season
Rochester v Emory - #1E Rochester is a lock, #2S Emory is on the fence

[sac]

Wooster also gained an RRO and SOS boost over Denison. MSJ added nothing like that.

I'd  lock in Wooster over MSJ in the next rankings.

If they both lost in their respective finals their w% would be  MSJ  .769  Wooster .714

Its close, not sure I'd call it a lock.  I'd need sold on that one.

[Titan Q]

7. Wooster (GL/NCAC): .741/.546/4-5   at Ohio Wesleyan, NCAC final
18. John Carroll (GL/OAC): .680/.560/2-5   done
24. Mount St. Joseph (GL/HCAC): .792/.511/2-1   vs Manchester, HCAC semis

These are your Great Lakes teams.  Mt. St. Joseph has been ranked ahead of JCU and Wooster in all 3 polls.  MSJ holds a very key head-to-head win over JCU.  JCU has head-to-head losses to MSJ, Hanover and Hope  (3 teams all ranked ahead of them) plus 1-1 vs #1 ranked Marietta .  It seems to me pretty close to impossible for JCU to be ranked ahead of MSJ.  Remember JCU exited the OAC tournament in the quarterfinal.

I see where you're going with Wooster's criteria, but definition of Pool C is another loss for Wooster, if MSJ makes the HCAC title game, I don't see Wooster moving ahead of MSJ either.

Good point about Mt. St. Joseph and JCU - I flipped them and put MSJ in spot #21 and JCU as one of the first out.  I think it's fair to say one has a chance to get in and the other probably does not.  http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.msg1793386#msg1793386

I feel pretty good about where I have Wooster as of the data right now.

[KnightSlappy]

Wooster also gained an RRO and SOS boost over Denison. MSJ added nothing like that.

I'd  lock in Wooster over MSJ in the next rankings.

If they both lost in their respective finals their w% would be  MSJ  .769  Wooster .714

Its close, not sure I'd call it a lock.  I'd need sold on that one.

the .030 SOS = two wins thing usually works out to about .080 in the WP. Wooster has the full .030 advantage right now and a pretty sizable lead in RRO (though could Denison slip out of the final ranks?).

[Titan Q]

It will be interesting to see what the committee does with the WP<.700 teams.  I have MIT, MSJ, St Thomas competing for those last Pool C berths, instead of JCU, Carthage, etc.

I looked at mine again and I agree with you - I moved St. Thomas and MSJ in and Carthage and JCU out.  And moved MIT up to #22.

http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.msg1793386#msg1793386

[sac]

Wooster also gained an RRO and SOS boost over Denison. MSJ added nothing like that.

I'd  lock in Wooster over MSJ in the next rankings.

If they both lost in their respective finals their w% would be  MSJ  .769  Wooster .714

Its close, not sure I'd call it a lock.  I'd need sold on that one.

the .030 SOS = two wins thing usually works out to about .080 in the WP. Wooster has the full .030 advantage right now and a pretty sizable lead in RRO (though could Denison slip out of the final ranks?).

In favor of who though.

[fantastic50]

Wooster also gained an RRO and SOS boost over Denison. MSJ added nothing like that.

I'd  lock in Wooster over MSJ in the next rankings.

If they both lost in their respective finals their w% would be  MSJ  .769  Wooster .714

Its close, not sure I'd call it a lock.  I'd need sold on that one.

the .030 SOS = two wins thing usually works out to about .080 in the WP. Wooster has the full .030 advantage right now and a pretty sizable lead in RRO (though could Denison slip out of the final ranks?).

In favor of who though.

Yes, this is the issue. There are really only eight teams (including Denison) worth ranking in the GL, and nine slots. Ohio Northern was ranked 9th at 16-9, and picked up their 10th loss in the first round of the OAC tournament. Only other options would be Anderson, St Vincent, Medaille, etc. I can't imagine that any of those will leap over Denison, but if they did, it would certainly hurt Wooster's Pool C chances.

[goscots]

Today's bubble games
Percentages are Pool-C-bid-if-needed probabilities with win/loss today
12:00 Rochester (21-3, 0.532, 4-1, EA#1, lock) at Emory (17-7, 0.544, 1-3, SO#2) 92%/4%
1:00 VA Wesleyan (19-8, 0.528, 1-6) vs Guilford (21-5, 0.504, 3-2, SO#3) 70%/33%
7:00 Mt St Joseph (18-5, 0.509, 2-1, GL#4) 69%/30% vs Manchester (10-15, 0.504, 0-4)
7:30 MIT (19-6, 0.544, 0-4, NE#7) 48%/17% vs WPI (17-8, 0.536, 2-5)

Potential "bid thief" games
If these go the "wrong way", highly-ranked teams will drop into Pool C.  Bubble teams want the bold-ed teams to win these.
2:00 Gwynedd Mercy (21-6, 0.496, 1-5, AT) at Neumann (24-2, 0.508, 6-0, AT#1)
3:00 Wheaton (MA) (11-15, 0.512, 0-4, NE) at Babson (24-1, 0.578, 4-1, NE#1)
4:00 Moravian (18-6, 0.520, 5-4, MA#8) at Scranton (20-6, 0.536, 7-3, MA#5)
4:00 Stevens (18-7, 0.487, 1-2, EA) at St John Fisher (21-5, 0.549, 0-3, EA#2)
4:00 Wooster (20-7, 0.546, 4-5, GL#5) at Ohio Wesleyan (21-6, 0.508, 2-3, GL#8)
4:00 SUNY Oneonta (17-10, 0.536, 4-6, EA) at Oswego State (19-6, 0.526, 3-2, EA#5)
4:00 Trinity (CT) (16-9, 0.564, 2-8, NE) at Middlebury (22-3, 0.612, 6-3, NE#2)
5:00 Albright (13-13, 0.552, 1-4, MA) at Lycoming (21-4, 0.530, 1-1, MA#3)
5:00 Transylvania (16-9, 0.506, 3-2, GL) at Hanover (19-3, 0.519, 2-2, GL#2)
7:00 Dickinson (16-10, 0.522, 0-4, MA) at Swarthmore (21-5, 0.524, 1-1, MA#4)
7:00 Hardin-Simmons (21-6, 0.556, 3-1, SO#1) at LeTourneau (22-4, 0.490, 2-1, SO#5)
7:30 Calvin (15-8, 0.504, 2-3, GL) at Hope (20-4, 0.521, 2-1, GL#3)
7:30 Baldwin-Wallace (15-12, 0.527, 2-6, GL) at Marietta (23-4, 0.578, 4-4, GL#1)
8:00 N Central (IL) (16-9, 0.552, 2-4, CE) at Augustana (19-7, 0.540, 2-2, CE#5)
8:00 UW-Oshkosh (17-9, 0.592, 5-5, CE#8) at UW-River Falls (21-3, 0.590, 7-3, CE#1)

You guys are a great source of information and I very much appreciate the time and effort you put into posting these lists. The above list confirms my thought of how unusual it is the bubble teams would want a conference leader to lose to save a spot.

[fantastic50]

Yes, it's an odd situation that OWU is the top seed & host, but Wooster is the only Pool C candidate. With those two and Denison all about equal in NCAC play, it comes down to non-conference schedule. Wooster played a tough slate, with wins over St John Fisher and Hobart, and "good losses" at Whitman and Marietta, and home vs Wash. U. Had OWU not struggled early, they would likely be a solid Pool C candidate. With a very weak nonconference schedule, Denison needed a lot of wins.

[WUPHF]

Emory gets the win over Rochester, 62-62.

Is the UAA a three bid league now?