Pool C

[Smitty Oom]

Now this isn't calculator based I will warn you right now, this is full on pure Smitty thoughts I have had throughout this week and weekend. They may not be totally correct when determining the Pool C teams but I think these thoughts have to come into the heads of the committee.

1. How can a team that doesn't make a conference tourney be "rewarded" in Pool C criteria by not gaining that extra loss. I do not think that IWU should get a nod. I understand they don't get the vRRO outcomes but they already have a lot...

2. How can a team with 10 (double digit!!!) loses even be considered for an at-large. Too many solid teams out there with 5-8 losses that won't make that I don't think that Oshkosh should even get to the table, no matter what the other criteria look like.

3. Lastly, CCIW fans, welcome to the world of the MIAC (and probably a lot of other conferences out there)... where good to great teams beat each other up too much in long conference seasons, eventually taking away Pool C births away from each other and handing them to the NESCAC.

I have body armor on so let me have it if you disagree with any of my takes!  I understand that this is the way it is for this year, but I just wanted to lay down some of my thoughts

[AO]

Everybody needs to stop typing and watch the UMAC championship game. It's now heading into quadruple overtime.

I may have had to call for a substitute PA Announcer if we went to a 5th OT.

[jaybird44]

I would like to add that I am a big believer in subliminal psychology, and I would bet that comes into play during the NCAA Tournament selection process...at each level, not just D3.

Committee members can cite chapter and verse about their selections being based solely on the narrowly-defined set of criteria, but they are human.  How many times have we seen the post-mortem on the D-1 selection shows, when NCAA selection committee officials mention that a team's strong or weak finish had a bearing on whether or not that team got into the tournament?  Is that part of the D-1 selection criteria?  I don't know the answer to that question, but it seems to have somewhat of an impact on why or why didn't a bubble team get a ticket to the dance.

The lengthy set of primary and secondary criteria in the D3 process does a very good job of keeping subjective subliminal views from running roughshod over the selection process.  But I think we are kidding ourselves if we firmly believe that the criteria keeps ALL subliminal views from trying to affect choices...especially in situations where a team like IWU doesn't make its conference tournament, yet still has criteria on its side as the selection committee goes to work.

If I have read correctly, the regional ranking committees first start the selection process by crafting one last set of rankings, then presents the results to the selection committee.  The criteria should still provide the sole fulcrum for the selection committee's choices, but in unique situations like IWU's, it will be interesting to see how it fares in the process...and whether subjective views are able to filter into that process.

[AppletonRocks]

If Eau Claire and Whitewater get in, then Oshkosh should be in.  They kicked them both twice and finished ahead of them in their league.  I can crawl under my rock now.   

[Titan Q]

My Sunday morning look at Pool C....

(All data courtesy of Matt Snyder - http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/.)

Tier 1- Projected In/No Drama
1. Williams (NE/NESCAC): .731/.592/7-4   vs Middlebury, NESCAC final, 12:00pm ET
2. Susquehanna (MA/LAND): .800/.556/4-4
3. UW-Whitewater (C/WIAC): .769/.567/3-5
4. Rochester (E/UAA): .840/.534/4-2
5. Amherst (NE/NESCAC): .708/.598/5-5
6. Tufts (NE/NESCAC): .769/.566/4-4
7. Wesleyan (NE/NESCAC): .760/.560/4-3
8. Whitworth (W/NWC): .852/.544/0-3
9. Salisbury (MA/CAC): .741/.546/3-4

Tier 2- Projected In
10. New Jersey City (AT/NJAC): .750/.533/5-4
11. UW-Eau Claire (C/WIAC): .680/.570/3-4
12. Hope (GL/MIAA): .800/.525/2-1
13. St. Lawrence (E/LL): .769/.526/3-5
14. Cabrini (AT/CSAC): .760/.531/2-3
15. Emory (S/UAA): .720/.547/2-3
16. Skidmore (E/LL): .731/.527/6-1

Tier 3- Right Side of the Bubble/Last 5 In
17. Augustana (C/CCIW): .704/.542/2-2
18. Illinois Wesleyan (C/CCIW): .680/.556/6-2
19. Keene State (NE/LEC): .679/.575/3-4
20. MIT (NE/NEWMAC): .769/.545/0-4   at Babson, NEWMAC final, 2:00pm ET
21. Mount St. Joseph (GL/HCAC): .800/.510/2-1   at Hanover, HCAC final, 2:00pm ET

Tier 4 - Wrong Side of the Bubble/Left at the Table
LeTourneau (S/ASC): .800/.506/2-2
John Carroll: (GL/OAC): .680/.562/2-5
Carthage (C/CCIW): .680/.553/2-2
Endicott (NE/CCC): .786/.532/1-1
St. Thomas (W/MIAC): .731/.530/1-2
Brockport (E/SUNYAC): .731/.522/2-3
Catholic (MA/LAND): .654/.557/3-7
Rowan (AT/NJAC): .630/.5643-6

Tier 5/Never at the table
UW-Oshkosh: (C/CCIW): .630/.601/5-6
Concordia TX (S/ASC): .708/.549/1-4
Emory & Henry (S/ODAC): .731/.528/2-3   vs Guilford, ODAC final, 1:00pm ET
Ohio Wesleyan (GL/NCAC): .750/.514/2-4
Loras (W/IIAC): .692/.548/1-1
St. Norbert (C/MWC): .792/.504/1-2

[Gregory Sager]

Everybody needs to stop typing and watch the UMAC championship game. It's now heading into quadruple overtime.

I may have had to call for a substitute PA Announcer if we went to a 5th OT.

I watched the last two overtimes. That was one heckuva game.

3. Lastly, CCIW fans, welcome to the world of the MIAC (and probably a lot of other conferences out there)... where good to great teams beat each other up too much in long conference seasons, eventually taking away Pool C births away from each other and handing them to the NESCAC.

Smitty, the CCIW is used to good-to-great teams beating each other up. That happens every season; this isn't the MIAA, where historically only two programs have dominated the circuit. The difference is that this year the CCIW was rather indifferent (by its own lofty standards) in non-conference play. That, plus the fact that the parity at the top really extended down to almost the entire league -- seven teams finished within three games of first place -- is why the CCIW is going to have so much trouble claiming a Pool C berth this season.

[Titan Q]

I would like to add that I am a big believer in subliminal psychology, and I would bet that comes into play during the NCAA Tournament selection process...at each level, not just D3.

Committee members can cite chapter and verse about their selections being based solely on the narrowly-defined set of criteria, but they are human.  How many times have we seen the post-mortem on the D-1 selection shows, when NCAA selection committee officials mention that a team's strong or weak finish had a bearing on whether or not that team got into the tournament?  Is that part of the D-1 selection criteria?  I don't know the answer to that question, but it seems to have somewhat of an impact on why or why didn't a bubble team get a ticket to the dance.

The lengthy set of primary and secondary criteria in the D3 process does a very good job of keeping subjective subliminal views from running roughshod over the selection process.  But I think we are kidding ourselves if we firmly believe that the criteria keeps ALL subliminal views from trying to affect choices...especially in situations where a team like IWU doesn't make its conference tournament, yet still has criteria on its side as the selection committee goes to work.

If I have read correctly, the regional ranking committees first start the selection process by crafting one last set of rankings, then presents the results to the selection committee.  The criteria should still provide the sole fulcrum for the selection committee's choices, but in unique situations like IWU's, it will be interesting to see how it fares in the process...and whether subjective views are able to filter into that process.

As I posted on the CCIW board in response to AndOne...
---
At least consider the other side too.  How should IWU coaches and players feel if the Central Region committee brings in factors that are not part of the established and communicated criteria in making the final ranking? The way the process works is extremely clear to everyone - http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/2017DIIIMBB_PreChamp_DIII_M_Basketball_20161024.pdf - which is probably the best thing about the way things work nowadays.  It eliminates bias and favoritism like the old days -- and let's be clear, there is bias in play in some of these conversations surrounding why IWU should not be considered (for reasons outside the criteria).

The criteria is the criteria and the numbers are the numbers.
---

[augiefan]

Exactly what time today are the brackets announced? I hope Titan Q is right about Augie and IWU getting in, but why isn't NPU in the mix?

[Greek Tragedy]

Exactly what time today are the brackets announced? I hope Titan Q is right about Augie and IWU getting in, but why isn't NPU in the mix?

About 11:30 am EST 12:30 pm EST

[bopol]

Exactly what time today are the brackets announced? I hope Titan Q is right about Augie and IWU getting in, but why isn't NPU in the mix?

Low SOS, I would guess.

The Central is a mess.  I can't quite figure out the order of the teams and wouldn't be surprised if Oshkosh passes Carthage and Augie in the final rankings and then ends up blocking everyone.  There really are very small distinctions between the 4 CCIW teams that ended up with 8 losses.  I generally think that NPU would be last of the four because of the low SOS, but I am hard pressed to figure out the order of the other 3.  I could see the argument that IWU could end up ahead of both, but I still think finishing outside of the CCIW tournament will hurt them.

My guess is that the order of the three will be Augustana, Carthage and then IWU.  Now, how many of these are regionally ranked is also TBD.  I think there are at most two spots.

[y_jack_lok]

Exactly what time today are the brackets announced? I hope Titan Q is right about Augie and IWU getting in, but why isn't NPU in the mix?

About 11:30 am EST

Aren't the brackets announced tomorrow? At least can't be 11:30 today. Still some conference tourney finals to play.

[Greek Tragedy]

Exactly what time today are the brackets announced? I hope Titan Q is right about Augie and IWU getting in, but why isn't NPU in the mix?

About 11:30 am EST

Aren't the brackets announced tomorrow? At least can't be 11:30 today. Still some conference tourney finals to play.

Yeah. TOMORROW. 12:30 pm EST. 11:30 central time (I'm in the central, thats why I always get that mixed up). I completely missed the "today" part. Sorry!

[Titan Q]

Some updates to my projection...

(All data courtesy of Matt Snyder - http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/.)

Tier 1- Projected In/No Drama
1. Babson (NE/NEWMAC): .926/.574/4-1
2. Williams (NE/NESCAC): .731/.592/7-4   
3. Susquehanna (MA/LAND): .800/.556/4-4
4. UW-Whitewater (C/WIAC): .769/.567/3-5
5. Rochester (E/UAA): .840/.534/4-2
6. Amherst (NE/NESCAC): .708/.598/5-5
7. Tufts (NE/NESCAC): .769/.566/4-4
8. Wesleyan (NE/NESCAC): .760/.560/4-3
9. Whitworth (W/NWC): .852/.544/0-3
10. Salisbury (MA/CAC): .741/.546/3-4

Tier 2- Projected In
11. New Jersey City (AT/NJAC): .750/.533/5-4
12. Hope (GL/MIAA): .800/.525/2-1
13. Cabrini (AT/CSAC): .760/.531/2-3
14. Emory (S/UAA): .720/.547/2-3
15. Skidmore (E/LL): .731/.527/6-1
16. St. Lawrence (E/LL): .769/.526/3-5

Tier 3- Right Side of the Bubble/Last 5 In
17. Augustana (C/CCIW): .704/.542/2-2
18. Keene State (NE/LEC): .679/.575/3-4
19. UW-Oshkosh: (C/WIAC): .630/.601/5-6
20. Illinois Wesleyan (C/CCIW): .680/.556/6-2
21. LeTourneau (S/ASC): .800/.506/2-2

Tier 4 - Wrong Side of the Bubble/Left at the Table
UW-Eau Claire (C/WIAC): .680/.570/3-4
Emory & Henry (S/ODAC): .731/.528/2-3   
Endicott (NE/CCC): .786/.532/1-1
Mount St. Joseph (GL/HCAC): .769/.510/2-1   
St. Thomas (W/MIAC): .731/.530/1-2
Brockport (E/SUNYAC): .731/.522/2-3
Catholic (MA/LAND): .654/.557/3-7
Rowan (AT/NJAC): .630/.5643-6

Tier 5/Never at the table
Ohio Wesleyan (GL/NCAC): .750/.514/2-4
John Carroll: (GL/OAC): .680/.562/2-5
Carthage (C/CCIW): .680/.553/2-2
Virginia Wesleyan (S/ODAC): .679/..533/1-7
Loras (W/IIAC): .692/.548/1-1
St. Norbert (C/MWC): .792/.504/1-2

[Titan Q]

If I have that Central order right, it will be interesting to see if .630 UW-Oshkosh is considered.  I don't think we've ever seen anything under .667 selected but who knows.  Their SOS and RRO numbers are certainly outstanding.

[Smitty Oom]

3. Lastly, CCIW fans, welcome to the world of the MIAC (and probably a lot of other conferences out there)... where good to great teams beat each other up too much in long conference seasons, eventually taking away Pool C births away from each other and handing them to the NESCAC.

Smitty, the CCIW is used to good-to-great teams beating each other up. That happens every season; this isn't the MIAA, where historically only two programs have dominated the circuit. The difference is that this year the CCIW was rather indifferent (by its own lofty standards) in non-conference play. That, plus the fact that the parity at the top really extended down to almost the entire league -- seven teams finished within three games of first place -- is why the CCIW is going to have so much trouble claiming a Pool C berth this season.

Exactly what I said, good-to-great teams beating up on each other. You used my standpoint in your rebuttal. MIAC usually has St. Thomas and then 5-6 other teams that are pretty solid squads, but things happen in 20 conference games, where you know the other teams almost as well as yourself, and you happen to lose a handful of games coupled with SOS creeping towards .500 and eventually getting knocked out of Pool C contention.