Pool C

Pat Coleman · February 14, 2018, 01:57:43 PM

These things are here:
http://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2018/02/men-regional-rankings-second

fantastic50 · February 14, 2018, 04:14:17 PM

Most wins vs new RRO (corrected)
Wash. U (7-1)
Whitman (6-0)
Wooster (6-1)
Williams (6-4)
John Carroll (5-2)
NJCU (5-4)
ECSU (4-1)
Wittenberg (4-1)

Onward on, John Carroll · February 14, 2018, 05:48:24 PM

Quote from: fantastic50 on February 14, 2018, 04:14:17 PM
Most wins vs (new) RRO:
Wash. U (7-1)
NJCU (6-4)
John Carroll (5-1)
Wooster (5-1)
Augustana (5-2)
Wesleyan (5-3)
Williams (5-3)

Honorable mention: Whitman (4-0), Springfield (4-1), York (3-0), Sul Ross (3-0), Wittenberg (3-0)

Isn't JCU 5-2?

Wins: Etta (2), ONU (2), BW
Losses: BW, Hope

fantastic50 · February 14, 2018, 06:48:47 PM

Quote from: Onward on, John Carroll on February 14, 2018, 05:48:24 PM
Quote from: fantastic50 on February 14, 2018, 04:14:17 PM
Most wins vs (new) RRO:
Wash. U (7-1)
NJCU (6-4)
John Carroll (5-1)
Wooster (5-1)
Augustana (5-2)
Wesleyan (5-3)
Williams (5-3)

Honorable mention: Whitman (4-0), Springfield (4-1), York (3-0), Sul Ross (3-0), Wittenberg (3-0)

Isn't JCU 5-2?

Wins: Etta (2), ONU (2), BW
Losses: BW, Hope

Yes, thank you! I fouled up and ran the numbers using last week's RR teams, even though I had the new ones coded up. It's now fixed above.

D3ball1845 · February 14, 2018, 07:14:40 PM

I was completely surprised to see that MIT was only moved down one spot in the NE regional rankings after losing two games this week, including a loss to a subpar Coast Guard team. I understand that they lost one of their best players but you can't ignore the results. I'm baffled how they are still in the regional rankings yet a team like Nichols, that won two games this week is moved out of the regional rankings in the NE. What did they do wrong to be moved out? Another thing that doesn't make sense is the fact that Salem State, who just cracked the Top 25 this week, is ranked behind four teams in the regional rankings who are unranked nationally. Something is not adding up. I honestly don't think Salem State is a Top 25 team in the country, but currently at No. 25 how are they 10th in the NE regional ranking?

Ralph Turner · February 14, 2018, 08:54:58 PM

Quote from: Pat Coleman on February 13, 2018, 08:47:55 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on February 13, 2018, 08:46:58 PM
Only one game, geographic isolation combined with an 18 game conference schedule.

Hard to schedule regionally ranked teams when it's not even a priority to play D-III opponents.

Respectfully, I acknowledge that the ASC does not always fill its schedule to the max with D3 schools in many sports.

I have run the schedules for 2017-18 for the men's teams.

In the 7-team ASC East, 6 schools played a complete D-3 schedule.

Provisional Belhaven (located in Jackson MS) played a mid-week, mid-season game against Pensacola Christian on Tuesday Jan 30th.

In the 6-team ASC West, 3 schools played a complete D-3 schedule.

Sul Ross State played at (NAIA-1) U of the Southwest in Hobbs NM (188 miles away) and at (D-2) Lubbock Christian (212 miles away) in November. The nearest D-3 teams are more than 300 miles away.

Concordia Texas played D-2 Dallas Baptist in a tournament cross-town at St Edwards on Fri 11/24 and then future D-3 St Thomas of Houston TX on 11/28. CTX did travel opening weekend to play Guilford (11/17), H-SC (11/18) in Greensboro and then at Averett on Sun 11/19.

McMurry (re-classifying) played at D-2 Angelo State on 12/28 and then NCCAA schools, Arlington Baptist and Ecclesia. McMurry has competed in the NCCAA during the reclassification process. (Texas State was an exhibition.)

fantastic50 · February 15, 2018, 09:27:19 AM

Here's my latest after last night's shake-up, with current Pool A teams in blue.

Locks and near-locks
100% Hamilton (21-3, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.566, 3-2 vRRO, NE#1) 16% A, proj. 0.846 / 0.575 / 4-3
100% Middlebury (19-5, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.575, 4-5 vRRO, NE#4) 8% A, proj. 0.741 / 0.589 / 5-6
100% Wesleyan (19-5, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.578, 5-3 vRRO, NE#2) 13% A, proj. 0.769 / 0.590 / 7-4
100% Williams (18-5, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.585, 6-4 vRRO, NE#3) 29% A, proj. 0.769 / 0.593 / 6-4
100% UW-Platteville (19-3, 11-2 WIAC, SOS 0.575, 4-2 vRRO, CE#2) 64% A, proj. 0.833 / 0.580 / 4-2
99% Cabrini (21-3, 14-2 CSAC, SOS 0.536, 3-2 vRRO, AT#2) 47% A, proj. 0.852 / 0.536 / 3-3
99% New Jersey City (19-6, 13-5 NJAC, SOS 0.570, 5-4 vRRO, AT#1) 15% A, proj. 0.750 / 0.576 / 7-5
99% Johns Hopkins (20-4, 14-3 CC, SOS 0.534, 3-3 vRRO, MA#2) 35% A, proj. 0.808 / 0.537 / 4-4
99% York (Pa.) (21-3, 14-3 CAC, SOS 0.514, 3-0 vRRO, MA#1) 32% A, proj. 0.815 / 0.532 / 4-2
99% John Carroll (20-4, 14-3 OAC, SOS 0.536, 5-2 vRRO, GL#3) 54% A, proj. 0.815 / 0.540 / 5-2
99% Marietta (19-5, 13-4 OAC, SOS 0.552, 3-4 vRRO, GL#4) 24% A, proj. 0.750 / 0.564 / 2-5
99% Wittenberg (21-2, 15-2 NCAC, SOS 0.517, 4-2 vRRO, GL#1) 54% A, proj. 0.885 / 0.529 / 4-2
99% Wooster (20-4, 14-3 NCAC, SOS 0.549, 6-1 vRRO, GL#2) 25% A, proj. 0.786 / 0.563 / 4-3
99% Augustana (18-5, 10-4 CCIW, SOS 0.576, 4-3 vRRO, CE#3) 41% A, proj. 0.769 / 0.572 / 4-3
99% Washington U. (20-2, 11-0 UAA, SOS 0.550, 7-1 vRRO, CE#1) 99% A, proj. 0.800 / 0.538 / 4-1
99% St. John's (21-2, 18-1 MIAC, SOS 0.513, 3-1 vRRO, WE#2) 61% A, proj. 0.880 / 0.525 / 3-2
99% Whitman (22-0, 14-0 NWC, SOS 0.503, 6-0 vRRO, WE#1) 74% A, proj. 0.962 / 0.521 / 5-1

Strong contenders
98% Eastern Connecticut (20-3, 12-1 LEC, SOS 0.540, 4-1 vRRO, NE#5) 66% A, proj. 0.852 / 0.532 / 3-1
98% Swarthmore (20-4, 14-3 CC, SOS 0.525, 2-3 vRRO, MA#4) 34% A, proj. 0.808 / 0.539 / 4-4
95% Emory (18-4, 9-2 UAA, SOS 0.534, 3-2 vRRO, SO#1) 0% A, proj. 0.840 / 0.531 / 3-2
92% Christopher Newport (19-5, 13-4 CAC, SOS 0.531, 2-1 vRRO, MA#5) 48% A, proj. 0.769 / 0.544 / 4-2
85% UW-Stevens Point (17-7, 11-2 WIAC, SOS 0.608, 5-5 vRRO, CE#5) 19% A, proj. 0.692 / 0.606 / 3-6
82% Plattsburgh State (18-4, 15-1 SUNYAC, SOS 0.524, 3-3 vRRO, EA#2) 56% A, proj. 0.800 / 0.525 / 3-3
82% Randolph-Macon (18-6, 12-3 ODAC, SOS 0.551, 4-3 vRRO, SO#2) 41% A, proj. 0.731 / 0.554 / 3-3
82% St. Olaf (18-6, 14-5 MIAC, SOS 0.544, 3-3 vRRO, WE#3) 15% A, proj. 0.731 / 0.543 / 4-3

Bubble-in
79% Hobart (20-3, 15-1 LL, SOS 0.528, 1-2 vRRO, EA#1) 74% A, proj. 0.846 / 0.528 / 1-2
78% Franklin and Marshall (20-4, 14-3 CC, SOS 0.510, 2-2 vRRO, MA#6) 25% A, proj. 0.769 / 0.533 / 3-4
76% Ramapo (19-6, 15-3 NJAC, SOS 0.537, 3-5 vRRO, AT#3) 48% A, proj. 0.731 / 0.543 / 4-5
70% Albright (18-5, 11-4 MACC, SOS 0.540, 2-1 vRRO, MA#3) 47% A, proj. 0.760 / 0.547 / 3-2
67% UW-Oshkosh (18-6, 8-5 WIAC, SOS 0.555, 4-3 vRRO, CE#4) 10% A, proj. 0.741 / 0.553 / 3-4
63% Maryville (Tenn.) (16-4, 13-1 USAC, SOS 0.528, 1-2 vRRO, SO#5) 52% A, proj. 0.792 / 0.526 / 2-2
51% Sul Ross State (18-3, 13-2 ASC, SOS 0.502, 2-0 vRRO, SO#3) 35% A, proj. 0.833 / 0.520 / 3-1
51% Illinois Wesleyan (18-5, 11-3 CCIW, SOS 0.543, 2-4 vRRO, CE#6) 28% A, proj. 0.731 / 0.551 / 2-5
51% Whitworth (20-3, 12-2 NWC, SOS 0.507, 2-3 vRRO, WE#5) 18% A, proj. 0.846 / 0.533 / 1-4

Bubble-out
45% Amherst (16-7, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.564, 4-5 vRRO, NE#8) 28% A, proj. 0.692 / 0.572 / 4-5
43% Wheaton (Ill.) (17-6, 10-4 CCIW, SOS 0.547, 4-2 vRRO, CE#7) 18% A, proj. 0.692 / 0.554 / 4-3
32% Tufts (17-7, 6-4 NESCAC, SOS 0.573, 2-6 vRRO, NE#11) 4% A, proj. 0.654 / 0.591 / 2-8
31% Springfield (17-7, 11-2 NEWMAC, SOS 0.555, 4-2 vRRO, NE#6) 36% A, proj. 0.692 / 0.562 / 3-2
25% Loras (18-6, 11-4 IIAC, SOS 0.536, 1-2 vRRO, WE#7) 23% A, proj. 0.731 / 0.548 / 2-3
24% Gwynedd Mercy (19-5, 14-3 CSAC, SOS 0.516, 3-3 vRRO, AT#5) 36% A, proj. 0.778 / 0.522 / 3-3
20% Salem State (22-3, 12-0 MASCAC, SOS 0.510, 1-2 vRRO, NE#10) 72% A, proj. 0.852 / 0.511 / 1-2
20% Brockport (17-6, 12-4 SUNYAC, SOS 0.525, 2-3 vRRO, EA#4) 16% A, proj. 0.704 / 0.537 / 3-5

Fringe contenders
19% MIT (19-5, 9-4 NEWMAC, SOS 0.524, 2-3 vRRO, NE#9) 34% A, proj. 0.769 / 0.532 / 2-2
16% LeTourneau (21-3, 15-2 ASC, SOS 0.488, 1-3 vRRO, SO) 28% A, proj. 0.821 / 0.509 / 1-4
13% UW-River Falls (16-7, 7-6 WIAC, SOS 0.567, 2-5 vRRO, CE#8) 4% A, proj. 0.654 / 0.585 / 2-6
12% Keene State (16-8, 10-3 LEC, SOS 0.572, 2-5 vRRO, NE#7) 22% A, proj. 0.667 / 0.566 / 3-5
10% Cortland (17-6, 12-4 SUNYAC, SOS 0.516, 1-2 vRRO, EA#3) 15% A, proj. 0.704 / 0.532 / 2-3
9% Ripon (16-6, 13-4 MWC, SOS 0.530, 1-2 vRRO, CE) 32% A, proj. 0.708 / 0.536 / 3-3
8% Nichols (21-3, 15-2 CCC, SOS 0.507, 0-1 vRRO, NE) 57% A, proj. 0.852 / 0.512 / 0-1
6% Nebraska Wesleyan (21-3, 13-3 IIAC, SOS 0.502, 1-1 vRRO, WE#4) 61% A, proj. 0.846 / 0.509 / 1-2
5% TCNJ (19-6, 14-4 NJAC, SOS 0.512, 4-3 vRRO, AT#4) 24% A, proj. 0.731 / 0.521 / 4-4
5% Ohio Northern (17-7, 12-5 OAC, SOS 0.526, 3-4 vRRO, GL#5) 14% A, proj. 0.679 / 0.539 / 2-5

Other projected Pool A teams
(MWC) Monmouth (17-7, SOS 0.530, 0-1 vRRO)
(E8) Stevens (18-5, SOS 0.512, 0-4 vRRO)
(GNAC) Albertus Magnus (19-4, SOS 0.508, 0-4 vRRO)
(HCAC) Mount St. Joseph (17-7, SOS 0.511, 1-1 vRRO)
(AMCC) La Roche (18-6, SOS 0.485, 1-2 vRRO)
(LAND) Juniata (19-4, SOS 0.467, 2-0 vRRO)
(MACF) Wilkes (16-6, SOS 0.478, 0-2 vRRO)
(MIAA) Olivet (15-6, SOS 0.497, 1-3 vRRO)
(NEAC) Lancaster Bible (19-5, SOS 0.453, 0-1 vRRO)
(PAC) Thomas More (18-5, SOS 0.486, 0-0 vRRO)
(SAA) Centre (15-7, SOS 0.444, 1-0 vRRO)
(SCAC) Schreiner (12-11, SOS 0.502, 0-2 vRRO)
(SCIAC) Claremont-Mudd-Scripps (14-7, SOS 0.492, 0-3 vRRO)
(SKY) Farmingdale State (17-7, SOS 0.507, 1-3 vRRO)
(SLIAC) Greenville (16-8, SOS 0.477, 0-1 vRRO)
(UMAC) Bethany Lutheran (17-8, SOS 0.464, 0-2 vRRO)
(CUNYAC) Lehman (21-4, SOS 0.449, 1-0 vRRO)
(NAC) Husson (18-6, SOS 0.451, 0-0 vRRO)
(NACC) Benedictine (16-8, SOS 0.486, 0-1 vRRO)
(NECC) Southern Vermont (16-5, SOS 0.458, 1-2 vRRO)

nescac1 · February 15, 2018, 09:55:13 AM

Fantastic50, thanks for so much detailed data, I don't know how you do it, but great stuff!

GoPerry · February 15, 2018, 11:35:11 AM

Quote from: nescac1 on February 15, 2018, 09:55:13 AM
Fantastic50, thanks for so much detailed data, I don't know how you do it, but great stuff!

Ditto. Really terrific and appreciated (despite your Wheaton projection). Thank you!

Greek Tragedy · February 15, 2018, 11:48:19 AM

I concur...about your work, not about Wheaton.

Gregory Sager · February 15, 2018, 11:51:14 AM

Nicely done, Drew!

Onward on, John Carroll · February 15, 2018, 12:05:28 PM

He's the best. You cannot go to an Ohio high school football game in October and not hear the words "Drew Pasteur" muttered at least a dozen times as people try to project their playoff hopes. He is reaching legendary status.

Gregory Sager · February 15, 2018, 01:57:30 PM

Math profs being lionized at football games.

It's a brave new world in which we live.

fantastic50 · February 15, 2018, 02:30:46 PM

Thanks for the kind words, folks. In small-college basketball, as with high school football, I enjoy bringing my professional background to a sport that I enjoy.

This semester, I am teaching an upper-level course in data-driven mathematical modeling, and forecasting the Pool C berths (based on data I collected from the last five seasons, as well as current info) is one of several mini-projects that the students will complete. It will be interesting to see their consensus, when Selection Monday comes around.

Gregory Sager · February 15, 2018, 02:52:12 PM

Quote from: fantastic50 on February 15, 2018, 02:30:46 PMThis semester, I am teaching an upper-level course in data-driven mathematical modeling, and forecasting the Pool C berths (based on data I collected from the last five seasons, as well as current info) is one of several mini-projects that the students will complete. It will be interesting to see their consensus, when Selection Monday comes around.

This sounds like a great subject for Ryan Scott to write about in Around the Nation.