Pool C

[Titan Q]

Thanks, fantastic50! Great stuff.

How does your A percentage work?  Wondering why, at this point, Augustana has a better A chance (38%) than IWU (34%).  What goes into that?

Standings Through Feb 18
Illinois Wesleyan 12-3  (vs North Central)
Augustana 11-4  (vs Elmhurst)
North Central 10-5  (at Illinois Wesleyan)
Wheaton 10-5  (at Carroll)

Pool A probability is based on simulations of any remaining regular season games, plus the conference tournament.  I have IWU a roughly 2-to-1 favorite to get the top seed, but my predictive ratings have Augustana about two points stronger (and ranked #9 vs #13 for the Titans).  That combination is enough to make Augie a slight favorite to win the CCIW tournament, for now, but I think it will flip if the Titans lock up the #1 seed.

Makes sense.

Honestly it's a coin flip either way.  IWU and Augustana are basically dead even teams.

[fantastic50]

anybody want to attempt to show how the "non-conference" SOS might change anything?

I think that gets tough. These predictions don't include the other primary stuff - which everyone admits. We would have to have conversations on that information first before you could start talking about the non-conference SOS. Ryan has seen signs where the non-conf SOS seems to be making a play. I have seen signs where I don't think it has gotten to that criteria.

Secondary criteria is really tough to start hashing out when we don't really know if it would be used.

Because it's just a number, it's easier to factor in ncSOS than it is to include head-to-head, etc.  I am hedging a bit on whether/how it might be considered by feeding into the selection model, but weighting it anywhere from not at all up to 20% as important as overall SOS, with that weight randomly chosen in each of simulations.

I could imagine it might help Keene State (SOS .570, ncSOS .640).  On the other hand, it might hurt UW-Oshkosh (SOS .548, ncSOS .474) and Amherst (SOS .567, ncSOS .478), and outright sink Nebraska Wesleyan (SOS .500, ncSOS .399).

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

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[fantastic50]

Do we know whether non-conference games against conference opponents will count toward a team's non-conference strength-of-schedule?  For example, Amherst, Williams, and Wesleyan each play one another home-and-home, but only three of those six games count toward the NESCAC standings.  My working assumption is that such games would not be considered for ncSOS, but that's just a guess.  Dave or Pat, any word from the committee on this?

[ronk]

Do we know whether non-conference games against conference opponents will count toward a team's non-conference strength-of-schedule?  For example, Amherst, Williams, and Wesleyan each play one another home-and-home, but only three of those six games count toward the NESCAC standings.  My working assumption is that such games would not be considered for ncSOS, but that's just a guess.  Dave or Pat, any word from the committee on this?

Aha, you've found the real advantage that the NESCAC schools have over the rest of us in tourney selection. 

[Greek Tragedy]

If those games count as non-conference, I would think they count in the ncSOS. A few years ago (could be 10 or more), Stevens Point played a rare non-conference game against Oshkosh and then played them twice in conference and then again in the WIAC tournament.

[Oline89]

Do we know whether non-conference games against conference opponents will count toward a team's non-conference strength-of-schedule?  For example, Amherst, Williams, and Wesleyan each play one another home-and-home, but only three of those six games count toward the NESCAC standings.  My working assumption is that such games would not be considered for ncSOS, but that's just a guess.  Dave or Pat, any word from the committee on this?

How exactly does a conference opponent qualify as a non-conference game?  Sorry for my ignorance.

[Ralph Turner]

Do we know whether non-conference games against conference opponents will count toward a team's non-conference strength-of-schedule?  For example, Amherst, Williams, and Wesleyan each play one another home-and-home, but only three of those six games count toward the NESCAC standings.  My working assumption is that such games would not be considered for ncSOS, but that's just a guess.  Dave or Pat, any word from the committee on this?

How exactly does a conference opponent qualify as a non-conference game?  Sorry for my ignorance.

I assume by mutual consent of the 2 teams with notification of/approval by/acknowledgment from the conference office depending upon conference bylaws. It happens not infrequently in the "island" areas of D3 (ASC, NWC and maybe the SCIAC) and occasionally in the WIAC for football.

[Oline89]

Do we know whether non-conference games against conference opponents will count toward a team's non-conference strength-of-schedule?  For example, Amherst, Williams, and Wesleyan each play one another home-and-home, but only three of those six games count toward the NESCAC standings.  My working assumption is that such games would not be considered for ncSOS, but that's just a guess.  Dave or Pat, any word from the committee on this?

How exactly does a conference opponent qualify as a non-conference game?  Sorry for my ignorance.

I assume by mutual consent of the 2 teams with notification of/approval by/acknowledgment from the conference office depending upon conference bylaws. It happens not infrequently in the "island" areas of D3 (ASC, NWC and maybe the SCIAC) and occasionally in the WIAC for football.

This sounds like a scrimmage, hopefully these kind of games have no effect on rankings.  Really screwy, since I believe part of the RPI ranking takes into account home vs away wins.  Winning on the road is "worth" more, I believe.

[KnightSlappy]

If those games count as non-conference, I would think they count in the ncSOS. A few years ago (could be 10 or more), Stevens Point played a rare non-conference game against Oshkosh and then played them twice in conference and then again in the WIAC tournament.

In 2007 Calvin and Hope played each other in a non-conference tournament, then twice in the regular season, then once in the MIAA tournament, then once in the NCAA Tournament. That was... not great.

I believe I am correct in remembering that they played 9 times between the 2006 and 2007 seasons.

[lmitzel]

Do we know whether non-conference games against conference opponents will count toward a team's non-conference strength-of-schedule?  For example, Amherst, Williams, and Wesleyan each play one another home-and-home, but only three of those six games count toward the NESCAC standings.  My working assumption is that such games would not be considered for ncSOS, but that's just a guess.  Dave or Pat, any word from the committee on this?

How exactly does a conference opponent qualify as a non-conference game?  Sorry for my ignorance.

I assume by mutual consent of the 2 teams with notification of/approval by/acknowledgment from the conference office depending upon conference bylaws. It happens not infrequently in the "island" areas of D3 (ASC, NWC and maybe the SCIAC) and occasionally in the WIAC for football.

This sounds like a scrimmage, hopefully these kind of games have no effect on rankings.  Really screwy, since I believe part of the RPI ranking takes into account home vs away wins. Winning on the road is "worth" more, I believe.

RPI has no bearing on NCAA Tournament selection or regional rankings. The home/road difference does get weighted in SOS, but not based on results.

[AO]

This sounds like a scrimmage, hopefully these kind of games have no effect on rankings.  Really screwy, since I believe part of the RPI ranking takes into account home vs away wins. Winning on the road is "worth" more, I believe.

RPI has no bearing on NCAA Tournament selection or regional rankings. The home/road difference does get weighted in SOS, but not based on results.

The broken home/road multiplier can really give the NESCAC a boost when their Pool C contenders play Connecticut College at home.  The little 3 would get a double boost when they play a road non-conference game against one another.  Triple boost if those games are included in the non-conference SOS criteria.

[Ralph Turner]

Do we know whether non-conference games against conference opponents will count toward a team's non-conference strength-of-schedule?  For example, Amherst, Williams, and Wesleyan each play one another home-and-home, but only three of those six games count toward the NESCAC standings.  My working assumption is that such games would not be considered for ncSOS, but that's just a guess.  Dave or Pat, any word from the committee on this?

How exactly does a conference opponent qualify as a non-conference game?  Sorry for my ignorance.

I assume by mutual consent of the 2 teams with notification of/approval by/acknowledgment from the conference office depending upon conference bylaws. It happens not infrequently in the "island" areas of D3 (ASC, NWC and maybe the SCIAC) and occasionally in the WIAC for football.

This sounds like a scrimmage, hopefully these kind of games have no effect on rankings.  Really screwy, since I believe part of the RPI ranking takes into account home vs away wins.  Winning on the road is "worth" more, I believe.

Respectfully, I went to the WIAC football site and randomly clicked on a team's schedule for the season and found this. UWEC played UWRF twice in 2011. The first game was "non-conference".

http://www.d3football.com/teams/UW-Eau_Claire/2011/index

[Greek Tragedy]

Do we know whether non-conference games against conference opponents will count toward a team's non-conference strength-of-schedule?  For example, Amherst, Williams, and Wesleyan each play one another home-and-home, but only three of those six games count toward the NESCAC standings.  My working assumption is that such games would not be considered for ncSOS, but that's just a guess.  Dave or Pat, any word from the committee on this?

How exactly does a conference opponent qualify as a non-conference game?  Sorry for my ignorance.

I assume by mutual consent of the 2 teams with notification of/approval by/acknowledgment from the conference office depending upon conference bylaws. It happens not infrequently in the "island" areas of D3 (ASC, NWC and maybe the SCIAC) and occasionally in the WIAC for football.

This sounds like a scrimmage, hopefully these kind of games have no effect on rankings.  Really screwy, since I believe part of the RPI ranking takes into account home vs away wins.  Winning on the road is "worth" more, I believe.

I don't understand why you think that sounds like a scrimmage. Especially in football, it's hard to schedule games. And, not to sound arrogant, WIAC teams find it difficult to find opponents, so they have no choice but to schedule a conference opponent as a non-conference game. It's not ideal, but it's better than playing a non D3 team or not playing at all. The conference schedule is the conference schedule, I'm not even sure schools would need permission from the conference to schedule a conference opponent as a non-conference game. Back in my non-basketball playing days, we actually scheduled a conference opponent as a non-conference game and there was confusion on which game counted as a conference game. This was important because we won one and tied one and it effected who won the conference title.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

While the NESCAC teams mentioned are conference opponents, the conference schedule has them only play once. Thus as I am to believe, their second games against fellow conference mates are considered non-conference games and should be considered part of the non-conf SOS. For those curious, this would apply to the Amherst, Wesleyan, Williams group and the Bates, Bowdoin, Colby group.

I can certainly check, but I do not see why non-conference games against conference opponents should be excluded from that measurement. They choose to play those teams a second time in non-conference play.