Pool C

[Titan Q]

I can't even imagine what would've happened to LeFrak Gym if that final heave by the Mammoths had gone in rather than drawing rim.

Missed by about 2 inches.

[Titan Q]

Here is where I am as of 7:30pm ET/6:30pm CT...

Projected In...

Safely In
1. Hamilton (NE/NESCAC): .880 (22-3)/.567/8-4  @ Williams, Sat
2. Williams (NE/NESCAC): .792 (19-5)/.587/6-4   vs Hamilton, Sat
3. UW-Platteville (WE/WIAC: .833 (20-4)/.577/4-1   done
4. Johns Hopkins (MA/CC): .846 (22-4)/.533/5-3   @ Swarthmore, Sat
5. St. John's (WE/MIAC): .880 (22-3)/.524/3-2  done
6. Middlebury (NE/NESCAC): .760 (19-6).589/4-6   done
7. Wooster (GL/NCAC): .778 (21-6)/.564/4-3  done
8. Marietta (GL/OAC): .778 (21-6)/.563/4-5   done
9. Whitworth (WE/NWC): .884 (23-3)/.521/1-3   @ Whitman, Sat
10. New Jersey City (AT/NJAC): .731 (19-7)/.568/6-4   done
11. Emory (SO/UAA): .840 (21-4)/.525/3-2  done
12. Christopher Newport (SO/CAC): .777 (21-6)/.545/3-2   done
13. UW-Oshkosh (CE/WIAC): .741 (20-7)/.554/2-4   done
14. St. Olaf (WE/MIAC): .731 (19-7)/.544/3-2   done
15. North Central (CE/CCIW): .720 (18-7)/.555/4-4   @ Augustana, Sat
16. Albright (MA/Commonwealth): .769 (20-6)/.541/3-2   done

At the Mercy of Bubble Burster Results
17. Augsburg (WE/MIAC): .741 (20-7)/.539/4-3   @ Bethel, Sun
18. Illinois Wesleyan (CE/CCIW): .731 (19-7)/.550/3-6   done
19. Franklin and Marshall (MA/CC): .769 (20-6)/.534/3-4   done
20. UW-River Falls (WE/WIAC): .692 (18-8)/.587/3-6   @ UW-Stevens Point, Sun
21. MIT (NE/NEWMAC): .808 (21-5)/.528/2-3  vs WPI, Sat

In the Conversation but Out...

22. Hobart (East/LL): .808 (21-5)/.523/1-2
23. Springfield (NE/NEWMAC): .692 (18-8)/.557/4-2
24. Salem State (NE/MASCAC): .846 (22-4)/.510/1-2   done
24. LeTourneau (SO/ASC): .852 (23-4)/.510/0-1   done
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Bubble Burster Games (projected Pool A teams that could steal a Pool C)...

* Augustana vs NCC in the CCIW final, Saturday 8:00pm ET
* Cabrini vs Neumann in the CSAC final, Saturday 7:00pm ET
* John Carroll vs Ohio Northern in the OAC final, Saturday 7:30pm ET
* UW-Stevens Point vs UW-River Falls, Sunday 3:00pm ET
* Sul Ross State vs East Texas Baptist in the ASC final, Saturday 7:00pm ET
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Reverse Bubble Burster Games (projected Pool C teams that could leave Pool C)...

* Augsburg at Bethel in the MIAC final, Sunday 3:00pm ET  (Augsburg Pool A with a win; Bethel not in the Pool C top 21)
* MIT vs WPI in the NEWMAC title, Sunday 1:00pm (MIT win puts them Pool A)

[dunkin3117]

Thoughts on the IIAC sneaking 2 in? With a Central W would Nebraska Wesleyan get the 2nd bid? Or should NWU take care of business, any chance a team like Loras finds there way in? My guess is unlikely, but curious as to everyone's thoughts.

[Greek Tragedy]

Thoughts on the IIAC sneaking 2 in? With a Central W would Nebraska Wesleyan get the 2nd bid? Or should NWU take care of business, any chance a team like Loras finds there way in? My guess is unlikely, but curious as to everyone's thoughts.

My opinion, which basically doesn't mean anything, is they are on the wrong side of the Pool C fence. It didn't help that both MIAC teams ahead of them already lost. There's no way Loras gets in.

[Gregory Sager]

Thoughts on the IIAC sneaking 2 in? With a Central W would Nebraska Wesleyan get the 2nd bid? Or should NWU take care of business, any chance a team like Loras finds there way in? My guess is unlikely, but curious as to everyone's thoughts.

Look at fantastic50's chart from a couple of hours ago, dunkin. He had Loras with a 16% chance at getting a Pool C berth and NWU with a 15% chance.

[Gregory Sager]

Cabrini wins the CSAC title game over Neumann, 88-77.

[dunkin3117]

I had seen the numbers, didn't know how accurate they were. I'm new to these boards. In the past, how accurate have these projections been to actual Pool C bids?

[Titan Q]

Two big wins for bubble teams...

Sul Ross State and Cabrini locked up Pool A bids.

[Gregory Sager]

I had seen the numbers, didn't know how accurate they were. I'm new to these boards. In the past, how accurate have these projections been to actual Pool C bids?

If I remember correctly, fantastic50 was only off by one bid last season.

[Gregory Sager]

John Carroll wins the OAC title with a 94-77 win over Ohio Northern.

[fantastic50]

I had seen the numbers, didn't know how accurate they were. I'm new to these boards. In the past, how accurate have these projections been to actual Pool C bids?

If I remember correctly, fantastic50 was only off by one bid last season.

I missed two last year, and one the year before that.  There are several folks here who are just as good or better with calling those berths on this last weekend.  The tools that I have available are most beneficial a week or two ahead of the selections, because I can predict final SOS, etc. with decent accuracy.

[Hoosiersfan2323]

Augie beats NCC, Central has NWU on the ropes in the final minutes in IIAC action.

[Hoosiersfan2323]

Augie beats NCC, Central has NWU on the ropes in the final minutes in IIAC action.

Nebraska Wesleyan comes back from 16 down to beat Central and earn the IIAC's Pool A bid

[Titan Q]

Saturday 9:00pm CT look...

Projected In...

1. Williams (NE/NESCAC): .800 (20-5)/.595/7-4   vs Wesleyan, Sun
2. Hamilton (NE/NESCAC): .846 (22-4)/.573/6-3  done
3. UW-Platteville (WE/WIAC: .833 (20-4)/.577/4-1   done
4. Whitman (WE/NWC): .962 (25-1)/.515/4-1 done
5. Swarthmore (MA/CC): .815 (22-5)/.542/3-4   done
6. St. John's (WE/MIAC): .880 (22-3)/.524/3-2  done
7. Middlebury (NE/NESCAC): .760 (19-6).590/4-6   done
8. Wooster (GL/NCAC): .778 (21-6)/.565/4-3  done
9. Marietta (GL/OAC): .778 (21-6)/.564/4-5   done
10. New Jersey City (AT/NJAC): .731 (19-7)/.567/6-4   done
11. Emory (SO/UAA): .840 (21-4)/.530/4-2  done
12. Christopher Newport (MA/CAC): .777 (21-6)/.546/3-2   done
13. UW-Oshkosh (CE/WIAC): .741 (20-7)/.554/2-4   done
14. St. Olaf (WE/MIAC): .731 (19-7)/.544/3-2   done
15. Albright (MA/Commonwealth): .769 (20-6)/.544/3-2   done
16. Franklin and Marshall (MA/CC): .769 (20-6)/.536/3-4   done
17. LeTourneau (SO/ASC): .852 (23-4)/.511/2-2   done
18. North Central (CE/CCIW): .692 (18-8)/.563/4-5   done
19. Illinois Wesleyan (CE/CCIW): .731 (19-7)/.550/3-6   done
20. Augsburg (WE/MIAC): .741 (20-7)/.539/4-3   @ Bethel, Sun - with a win today, moves to Pool A
21. Springfield (NE/NEWMAC): .692 (18-8)/.558/4-2  done


In the Mix for Spot #21...
22. Salem State (NE/MASCAC): .846 (22-4)/.512/1-2   done
23. UW-River Falls (WE/WIAC): .692 (18-8)/.586/3-6   @ UW-Stevens Point, Sun
24. Hobart (East/LL): .808 (21-5)/.526/1-2  done
25. Loras (WE/IIAC): .731 (19-7)/.542/2-3   done
26. Keene State (NE/LEC): .679/.575/2-6  done

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Bubble Burster Games (projected Pool A teams that could steal a Pool C)...

* UW-Stevens Point vs UW-River Falls, Sunday 3:00pm ET; UWSP: .692 (18-8)/.605/4-6 - spot #17 candidate
* MIT vs WPI in the NEWMAC title, Sunday 1:00pm;  MIT: .808 (21-5)/.531/2-3 - spot #21 candidate
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Reverse Bubble Burster Games (projected Pool C teams that could leave Pool C)...

* Augsburg at Bethel in the MIAC final, Sunday 3:00pm ET  (Augsburg Pool A with a win; Bethel not in the Pool C top 21)

[Titan Q]

I've got IWU ahead of North Central because the numbers seem to suggest that.  Drew, do you also have IWU's numbers better than NCC's?

There is some drama that has to play out in terms of which team gets ranked higher in the final Central ranking.  But I do have both in.