Pool C

[Gregory Sager]

There's obviously a pretty hefty gap between Wheaton's SOS and North Central's SOS that he believes will keep WC ahead of NCC when the regional rankings start to come out, if everything goes chalk in terms of how the two teams perform between now and then.

[lmitzel]

Wheaton is 14-5, North Central is 16-3 and has beaten Wheaton. Yet Wheaton is bubble-in, and NC is bubble-out. Interesting. 

There's obviously a pretty hefty gap between Wheaton's SOS and North Central's SOS that he believes will keep WC ahead of NCC when the regional rankings start to come out, if everything goes chalk in terms of how the two teams perform between now and then.

I'm trying to run through the numbers, and honestly there's something that doesn't make sense. I'm running this scenario on the assumption that North Central would finish 20-6 (since that matches the win percentage given), 2nd in the CCIW, which would earn them the bye, but they lose their semifinal game, presumably to Wheaton. But in this scenario, it's impossible for Wheaton to finish the season with a .692 win percentage. I don't know if I'm missing something with how those numbers get calculated or not.

Only thing I can think of that would make this happen would be to have North Central lose to Augie a second time, beat Wheaton at home, drop one other game somewhere along the way, then lose in Rock Island to the Thunder (this would fulfill their win percentage and 2-3 RRO record). Wheaton would probably have to knock off Augie in Rock Island on the 6th to give the Vikings their second RRO loss and would have to lose another game or two in addition to in Naperville to get to that (seemingly off) win percentage.

In a vacuum, a 48 point difference in strength of schedule combined with a few more RRO results is probably enough, especially in a hypothetical where Wheaton knocks off the Cardinals in the CCIW semis.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

There is a reason the rankings don't come out sooner ... SOS is still a bit out of wack this time of the season. More conference games, as most conferences turn into the second half of their schedule, will start to close a lot of gaps. I am not sure if he is considering that fact, but that is one of the reasons several committees have told me that expanding out the rankings another week would end up not being very helpful. Teams would get ranked when later in the season those numbers wouldn't even look remotely the same.

[WUPHF]

That does make sense...

They have three opponents in common between the five games left (excluding rematch).

North Central: North Park, Augustana, Illinois Wesleyan, Carthage, Elmhurst
Wheaton: Carthage, Carroll, Elmhurst, Augustana, Millikin.

[sac]

Generally speaking CCIW schools will experience less "sink" in their SOS numbers than other conferences.  They'll sort of migrate their way up the Pool chart.  I wouldn't freak out about being on the outside looking in right now.

But, it should be highlighted North Central's Non-conference SOS is a pretty bad .445.

[fantastic50]

SOS changes from future games (including conference tournament games) are factored into those projected numbers, but the impact of head-to-head results are not.

To Dave's point about regional rankings and selections, Amherst is a great example.  They had a weak early schedule, with an SOS well below our Mendoza line of .500 for quite a while, but the strength of the NESCAC will pull up the SOS to a decent number by season's end.  A week or two ago, I would have had them unranked (for that time, not projecting the future) in the region, even though I had them as the best team in the NESCAC.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Well, things certainly escalated quickly! Upsets a plenty. Conference races tightening. At the same time, some more clarity? Maybe not.

There will be plenty to talk about on Sunday's Hoopsville.

Join us as Dave and his guests work to figure out what has happened in just the last few days, plus get a sense of what's to come. We will talk to teams who are near the top of their conferences races in the Northeast, Atlantic, South, and Central regions. Plus, we hear from a coach who continues to give back to the NABC and trying to improve how Division III is perceived within the coaching ranks.

Oh, and how will the Top 25s shake out on Monday?

Hoopsville is presented by D3hoops.com and airs from the WBCA/NABC Studio. You can watch Sunday's show starting at 7:00 p.m. ET right here: http://bit.ly/2FQFb7v (or via Facebook Live and Periscope simulcasts).

If you have questions about Division III basketball, feel free to send them and we will answer them on a the show. Email them to hoopsville@d3hoops.com or use any of the social media options below.

Guests Schedule (order subject to change):
- Randy Tuggle, Greensboro women's coach
- Nicole Sarcone, Staten Island women's coach
- Gary Stewart, Stevenson men's coach (NABC Coach's Corner)
- Tod Murphy, Gordon men's coach
- Mike McGrath, UChicago men's coach
- Bob Quillman, IWUHoops.com (Top 25 Double-Take)

If you enjoy the show via the podcasts, choose your favorite avenue to listen and/or subscribe via the the following four avenues (click on the images when necessary):
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[Greek Tragedy]

https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/sports/basketball/d3/men/2018-19DIIIMBB_PreChampManual.pdf

First regional rankings are Wednesday, Feb. 6

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Which is why the Hoopsville Marathon is this coming Thursday.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

The Hoopsville Marathon Show ... is tomorrow!

Tune in starting at 12:00 p.m. ET as we talk to guests from around the country about nothing but #d3hoops.

It is all about celebrating the season, student-athletes, coaches, and an exciting season.

For more information, click here: http://bit.ly/2HGx0N3

We will share more about the show a little later.

[fantastic50]

Looking ahead to the first NCAA regional rankings next week, here are eight key questions, one for each region.

Northeast: What about the little guys? As usual, the regional rankings will have strong representation from the NESCAC (4 for sure, maybe Amherst and/or Colby) and NEWMAC (MIT & WPI), but where do ECSU, Nichols, and Gordon rank?

East: Who is #3?  The SUNYAC will take the top two spots in Oswego and Plattsburgh. Will the next in line be Nazareth (9-0 in the Empire8) or Rochester (who beat Naz)?

Atlantic: How will the NJAC teams be ordered?  The only realistic Pool C candidates are 3-4 teams from the same conference (Rowan, Ramapo, NJCU, maybe Montclair St).  Which does the committee see as the best?

Mid-Atlantic: Which bubble hopeful does the committee smile upon?  After Swarthmore, CNU, and perhaps Arcadia, it's a jumbled mess.  Which teams are in the best position to play their way in?

South: What about Centre?  In a ranking filled with ODAC teams and Emory of the UAA, where does the committee rank Centre (15-3, 8-1 SAA, .540 SOS), whose biggest win is at W&L?

Great Lakes: Where does La Roche fit?  While the top four will consist of a pair each from the OAC & NCAC, will the committee place La Roche (17-2, 12-0 AMCC, .494 SOS) next, even though their only quality win is over PSU-Behrend?

Central: Which bubble teams rise to the top?  After elites Augie and UWO, there is a group of five bubble teams from the same two conferences (UW-Lax, UWSP, UWW, NCC, Wheaton).  How does the committee rank them?

West: Where will Whitworth & Pomona be ranked?  Despite looking great at times, the Pirates are short on quality wins.  The Sagehens have a win over Whitman, but also a sub-.500 SOS.  A spot in the top six would be a good sign for either.

[Smitty Oom]

Looking ahead to the first NCAA regional rankings next week, here are eight key questions, one for each region.

Northeast: What about the little guys? As usual, the regional rankings will have strong representation from the NESCAC (4 for sure, maybe Amherst and/or Colby) and NEWMAC (MIT & WPI), but where do ECSU, Nichols, and Gordon rank?

East: Who is #3?  The SUNYAC will take the top two spots in Oswego and Plattsburgh. Will the next in line be Nazareth (9-0 in the Empire8) or Rochester (who beat Naz)?

Atlantic: How will the NJAC teams be ordered?  The only realistic Pool C candidates are 3-4 teams from the same conference (Rowan, Ramapo, NJCU, maybe Montclair St).  Which does the committee see as the best?

Mid-Atlantic: Which bubble hopeful does the committee smile upon?  After Swarthmore, CNU, and perhaps Arcadia, it's a jumbled mess.  Which teams are in the best position to play their way in?

South: What about Centre?  In a ranking filled with ODAC teams and Emory of the UAA, where does the committee rank Centre (15-3, 8-1 SAA, .540 SOS), whose biggest win is at W&L?

Great Lakes: Where does La Roche fit?  While the top four will consist of a pair each from the OAC & NCAC, will the committee place La Roche (17-2, 12-0 AMCC, .494 SOS) next, even though their only quality win is over PSU-Behrend?

Central: Which bubble teams rise to the top?  After elites Augie and UWO, there is a group of five bubble teams from the same two conferences (UW-Lax, UWSP, UWW, NCC, Wheaton).  How does the committee rank them?

West: Where will Whitworth & Pomona be ranked?  Despite looking great at times, the Pirates are short on quality wins.  The Sagehens have a win over Whitman, but also a sub-.500 SOS.  A spot in the top six would be a good sign for either.

Really enjoyed this post, thanks Fantastic50.

[Titan Q]

Looking ahead to the first NCAA regional rankings next week, here are eight key questions, one for each region.

Northeast: What about the little guys? As usual, the regional rankings will have strong representation from the NESCAC (4 for sure, maybe Amherst and/or Colby) and NEWMAC (MIT & WPI), but where do ECSU, Nichols, and Gordon rank?

East: Who is #3?  The SUNYAC will take the top two spots in Oswego and Plattsburgh. Will the next in line be Nazareth (9-0 in the Empire8) or Rochester (who beat Naz)?

Atlantic: How will the NJAC teams be ordered?  The only realistic Pool C candidates are 3-4 teams from the same conference (Rowan, Ramapo, NJCU, maybe Montclair St).  Which does the committee see as the best?

Mid-Atlantic: Which bubble hopeful does the committee smile upon?  After Swarthmore, CNU, and perhaps Arcadia, it's a jumbled mess.  Which teams are in the best position to play their way in?

South: What about Centre?  In a ranking filled with ODAC teams and Emory of the UAA, where does the committee rank Centre (15-3, 8-1 SAA, .540 SOS), whose biggest win is at W&L?

Great Lakes: Where does La Roche fit?  While the top four will consist of a pair each from the OAC & NCAC, will the committee place La Roche (17-2, 12-0 AMCC, .494 SOS) next, even though their only quality win is over PSU-Behrend?

Central: Which bubble teams rise to the top?  After elites Augie and UWO, there is a group of five bubble teams from the same two conferences (UW-Lax, UWSP, UWW, NCC, Wheaton).  How does the committee rank them?

West: Where will Whitworth & Pomona be ranked?  Despite looking great at times, the Pirates are short on quality wins.  The Sagehens have a win over Whitman, but also a sub-.500 SOS.  A spot in the top six would be a good sign for either.

Great stuff.

[Greek Tragedy]

Looking ahead to the first NCAA regional rankings next week, here are eight key questions, one for each region.

Northeast: What about the little guys? As usual, the regional rankings will have strong representation from the NESCAC (4 for sure, maybe Amherst and/or Colby) and NEWMAC (MIT & WPI), but where do ECSU, Nichols, and Gordon rank?

East: Who is #3?  The SUNYAC will take the top two spots in Oswego and Plattsburgh. Will the next in line be Nazareth (9-0 in the Empire8) or Rochester (who beat Naz)?

Atlantic: How will the NJAC teams be ordered?  The only realistic Pool C candidates are 3-4 teams from the same conference (Rowan, Ramapo, NJCU, maybe Montclair St).  Which does the committee see as the best?

Mid-Atlantic: Which bubble hopeful does the committee smile upon?  After Swarthmore, CNU, and perhaps Arcadia, it's a jumbled mess.  Which teams are in the best position to play their way in?

South: What about Centre?  In a ranking filled with ODAC teams and Emory of the UAA, where does the committee rank Centre (15-3, 8-1 SAA, .540 SOS), whose biggest win is at W&L?

Great Lakes: Where does La Roche fit?  While the top four will consist of a pair each from the OAC & NCAC, will the committee place La Roche (17-2, 12-0 AMCC, .494 SOS) next, even though their only quality win is over PSU-Behrend?

Central: Which bubble teams rise to the top?  After elites Augie and UWO, there is a group of five bubble teams from the same two conferences (UW-Lax, UWSP, UWW, NCC, Wheaton).  How does the committee rank them?

West: Where will Whitworth & Pomona be ranked?  Despite looking great at times, the Pirates are short on quality wins.  The Sagehens have a win over Whitman, but also a sub-.500 SOS.  A spot in the top six would be a good sign for either.

Great questions! I'm guessing the bubble teams, in order, could be La Crosse (swept WW, 1-0 v Point, though they play tomorrow), NCC, Stevens Point (1-0 v WW), Wheaton (beat Oshkosh) and Whitewater. That's just a guess not looking at SOS.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Just doing my due diligence... remember the first week's rankings will ultimately mean nothing. We will get a sense of maybe how committees are evaluating things, but they are also working without the vRRO for the first week (that data becomes available for Week 2). And since the last two rankings (the third and the "fourth") will only count for vRRO in the end .. Week 1 is a nice "toe in the water," but not much more than that.