Pool C

Started by Pat Coleman, January 20, 2006, 02:35:54 PM

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Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

Quote from: wally_wabash on February 06, 2019, 02:59:48 PM
Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on February 06, 2019, 02:44:16 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on February 06, 2019, 02:41:46 PM
Have NE teams taken a disproprtionate number of at-large bids historically?  That feels like a quick and dirty way to figure out if the additional ranked teams from that region are siphoning bids away from regions and teams that have fewer opportunities for RRO games in their vicinity.

NESCAC teams have arguably taken an extra bid or two. That certainly has been an argument. However, with the change to the SOS/WL% tool (removal), I am not sure how that will play out this year.

That has been my argument. We haven't really seen any extra bids elsewhere out of the northeast that have seemed odd or attributed to their vRRO data and thus their region.

But that's more to do with the NESCAC's unique league schedule than their geography, yes?
Host of Hoopsville. USBWA Executive Board member. Broadcast Director for D3sports.com. Broadcaster for NCAA.com & several colleges. PA Announcer for Gophers & Brigade. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.

nescac1

New England has the most schools of any region, right?  I have no idea whether the region receives a disproportionate number of bids, but part of the reason there are so many bids from New England is that there are so many New England D3 leagues and programs.  And in any given year, typically 3-4 NESCAC (sometimes more, only rarely fewer) teams will be among the top teams in the region.  And New England (certainly since 2003) has represented itself well as a region once in the tournament, it's not like New England teams (as opposed to some other regions) are flaming out as soon as they face other quality teams (four national champs and four more second place finishes, plus a bunch more Final Four appearances, from the region in the past 15 years).  Honestly, to the extent New England has an advantage, it's that the other east coast leagues (who they play in the regionals, typically) other than NESCAC, ODAC and NEWMAC haven't been very strong in postseason play over the past decade or so ... NJAC in particular, which is still solid but used to be a true powerhouse, and some of the Mid-Atlantic programs, some of which used to be a bit stronger I believe. 

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

Host of Hoopsville. USBWA Executive Board member. Broadcast Director for D3sports.com. Broadcaster for NCAA.com & several colleges. PA Announcer for Gophers & Brigade. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.

sac

Quote from: nescac1 on February 06, 2019, 03:18:42 PM
New England has the most schools of any region, right? I have no idea whether the region receives a disproportionate number of bids, but part of the reason there are so many bids from New England is that there are so many New England D3 leagues and programs.  And in any given year, typically 3-4 NESCAC (sometimes more, only rarely fewer) teams will be among the top teams in the region.  And New England (certainly since 2003) has represented itself well as a region once in the tournament, it's not like New England teams (as opposed to some other regions) are flaming out as soon as they face other quality teams (four national champs and four more second place finishes, plus a bunch more Final Four appearances, from the region in the past 15 years).  Honestly, to the extent New England has an advantage, it's that the other east coast leagues (who they play in the regionals, typically) other than NESCAC, ODAC and NEWMAC haven't been very strong in postseason play over the past decade or so ... NJAC in particular, which is still solid but used to be a true powerhouse, and some of the Mid-Atlantic programs, some of which used to be a bit stronger I believe.

I posted something about it a year on page 518 of this thread.  The Northeast has received  25% of the Pool C bids being something like 18% of D3.  Not wildly disproportionate, but a little disproportionate over an 11 year span for sure.

sac

Per the hosting discussion earlier and today's rankings.

Oshkosh  men and women are in ranking position to host, so Oshkosh men are in danger of having to play on the road as a top seed.  St. Thomas men sit #3 while their women are in position to host at this point.  Whitman women came in at #5, a long way from a hosting position.

SaintPaulite

Quote from: sac on February 06, 2019, 04:35:34 PM
Per the hosting discussion earlier and today's rankings.

Oshkosh  men and women are in ranking position to host, so Oshkosh men are in danger of having to play on the road as a top seed.  St. Thomas men sit #3 while their women are in position to host at this point.  Whitman women came in at #5, a long way from a hosting position.

Yep, pretty much everything we said. Guess it wasn't too early.

I'm an analyst, predicting things is kinda what I do. ;)

SaintPaulite

After the first regional rankings, I did a thing to get an idea for what the bubble looks like.

Disclaimer: I own a phone. It has a calendar. You don't need to tell me how much time is left in the season or how many regional rankings are left. If it helps you to think of this as "if the season ended today", then do that. Otherwise, feel free to say nothing, because I don't really care if you think it's too early.

Step 1: Skip past all the top ranked teams in a conference.

Step B: Call the top ranked Pool C in each region "IN"

Rowan
N Central
Plattsburgh
Capital
Salisbury
Middlebury
Guilford (eeeeehhhh)
Loras

Step 3: ???

Step not really a step: list out other teams that stand to be bubble-in now, or the last few out (I think most of these are top 50 in Massey except maybe Rochester and Ramapo).

Ramapo, Wheaton, UW-everyone, Rochester, Wabash, Gordon, Hamilton, Pomona-Pitzer, St. John's

So that's 11 teams. Only 8 (maybe 9 if Guilford is not actually in) can get in. That's before upsets are accounted for.

So if you want to be on the good side of the bubble when it bursts, and you're not on this list, you pretty much have to do something to play yourself first into this list, and then near the top of it.

SaintPaulite

Quote from: sac on February 06, 2019, 04:33:08 PM
Quote from: nescac1 on February 06, 2019, 03:18:42 PM
New England has the most schools of any region, right? I have no idea whether the region receives a disproportionate number of bids, but part of the reason there are so many bids from New England is that there are so many New England D3 leagues and programs.  And in any given year, typically 3-4 NESCAC (sometimes more, only rarely fewer) teams will be among the top teams in the region.  And New England (certainly since 2003) has represented itself well as a region once in the tournament, it's not like New England teams (as opposed to some other regions) are flaming out as soon as they face other quality teams (four national champs and four more second place finishes, plus a bunch more Final Four appearances, from the region in the past 15 years).  Honestly, to the extent New England has an advantage, it's that the other east coast leagues (who they play in the regionals, typically) other than NESCAC, ODAC and NEWMAC haven't been very strong in postseason play over the past decade or so ... NJAC in particular, which is still solid but used to be a true powerhouse, and some of the Mid-Atlantic programs, some of which used to be a bit stronger I believe.

I posted something about it a year on page 518 of this thread.  The Northeast has received  25% of the Pool C bids being something like 18% of D3.  Not wildly disproportionate, but a little disproportionate over an 11 year span for sure.

I didn't see that, but...

That's a LOT disproportionate! That's like a 39% point overindex (if you got 18% as 18% of the schools, that would be 100).

fantastic50

Maybe the most interesting thing from today's first set of NCAA rankings is La Roche (19-2, 14-0 AMCC, .505 SOS, .551 ncSOS) being ranked 3rd in the Great Lakes, ahead of OAC leader Capital (17-4, 12-2 OAC, .530 SOS, beat Marietta twice) and Wabash.  La Roche is a good team in my opinion, but hasn't beaten anyone except AMCC rival Penn State-Behrend (18-3, .467 SOS).

When I ran my numbers on this region, I got (in order) the top six that the NCAA ended up with (Marietta, Wooster, La Roche, Capital, Wabash, Wittenberg) but thought there's no way that the committee will put LRC 3rd without any quality wins.  Upon looking at head-to-head numbers, I ended up with Capital #1 and LRC #6, but it's as if the head-to-head didn't matter at all (yet).

fantastic50

Here are the numbers (including non-conference SOS and record vs regionally-ranked opponents) for the NCAA-ranked teams and other conference leaders.  All records are through Tuesday's games, so these are more current than what was used by the committees to determine the regional rankings.  At the end is my brief Pool C status for each team.

Northeast region
1) MIT (19-2, 9-1 NEWMAC, 0.562 SOS, 0.548 ncSOS, 2-0 vRRO) NEWMAC favorite
2) Williams (19-3, 6-2 NESCAC, 0.581 SOS, 0.535 ncSOS, 4-2 vRRO) NESCAC favorite
3) Nichols (20-2, 12-1 CCC, 0.517 SOS, 0.556 ncSOS, 2-2 vRRO) CCC favorite
4) Middlebury (16-5, 6-2 NESCAC, 0.591 SOS, 0.574 ncSOS, 1-4 vRRO) Strong contenders
5) Gordon (20-2, 12-1 CCC, 0.489 SOS, 0.522 ncSOS, 1-1 vRRO) Bubble-out
6) Hamilton (19-2, 5-2 NESCAC, 0.520 SOS, 0.488 ncSOS, 1-1 vRRO) Strong contenders
7) Eastern_Connecticut (16-5, 10-2 LEC, 0.561 SOS, 0.564 ncSOS, 2-2 vRRO) LEC favorite
8) Wesleyan (15-7, 5-3 NESCAC, 0.607 SOS, 0.571 ncSOS, 5-5 vRRO) Bubble-out
9) WPI (16-5, 7-3 NEWMAC, 0.546 SOS, 0.527 ncSOS, 0-1 vRRO) Fringe contenders
10) Keene_State (15-7, 10-3 LEC, 0.562 SOS, 0.642 ncSOS, 1-4 vRRO) Bubble-out
11) Amherst (18-3, 5-2 NESCAC, 0.511 SOS, 0.449 ncSOS, 3-1 vRRO) Bubble-out
NR) Maine-Farmington (13-7, 10-1 NAC, 0.461 SOS, 0.539 ncSOS, 0-0 vRRO) NAC favorite
NR) New_England_College (17-3, 12-1 NECC, 0.433 SOS, 0.416 ncSOS, 0-2 vRRO) NECC favorite
NR) Salem_State (14-8, 8-1 MASCAC, 0.540 SOS, 0.607 ncSOS, 0-5 vRRO) MASCAC favorite
NR) Suffolk (15-6, 6-1 GNAC, 0.456 SOS, 0.451 ncSOS, 0-0 vRRO) GNAC favorite

East region
1) Oswego_State (17-3, 12-1 SUNYAC, 0.515 SOS, 0.531 ncSOS, 5-2 vRRO) SUNYAC favorite
2) Plattsburgh_State (17-4, 11-3 SUNYAC, 0.521 SOS, 0.541 ncSOS, 3-4 vRRO) Bubble-out
3) Rochester (16-4, 6-3 UAA, 0.530 SOS, 0.496 ncSOS, 5-1 vRRO) Bubble-out
4) Nazareth (16-4, 10-1 E8, 0.514 SOS, 0.536 ncSOS, 0-2 vRRO) E8 favorite
5) St._Lawrence (15-6, 12-2 LL, 0.533 SOS, 0.611 ncSOS, 2-3 vRRO) LL favorite
6) Brockport (13-8, 9-5 SUNYAC, 0.551 SOS, 0.579 ncSOS, 2-4 vRRO) Longshots
7) Cortland (15-4, 9-4 SUNYAC, 0.491 SOS, 0.456 ncSOS, 2-2 vRRO) Fringe contenders
8) Hobart (13-8, 10-4 LL, 0.533 SOS, 0.584 ncSOS, 1-3 vRRO) Longshots
NR) Morrisville_State (16-4, 11-1 NEAC, 0.478 SOS, 0.495 ncSOS, 0-2 vRRO) NEAC favorite

Atlantic region
1) New_Jersey_City (17-5, 12-3 NJAC, 0.547 SOS, 0.557 ncSOS, 4-3 vRRO) NJAC favorite
2) Rowan (16-5, 11-4 NJAC, 0.556 SOS, 0.561 ncSOS, 6-2 vRRO) Strong contenders
3) Ramapo (15-7, 9-6 NJAC, 0.570 SOS, 0.607 ncSOS, 5-3 vRRO) Bubble-out
4) Montclair_State (14-8, 9-6 NJAC, 0.556 SOS, 0.539 ncSOS, 2-6 vRRO) Longshots
5) DeSales (15-5, 8-2 MACF, 0.496 SOS, 0.517 ncSOS, 0-2 vRRO) MACF favorite
6) Yeshiva (15-5, 13-2 SKY, 0.477 SOS, 0.531 ncSOS, 1-2 vRRO) SKY favorite
7) Baruch (17-5, 11-2 CUNYAC, 0.447 SOS, 0.455 ncSOS, 1-0 vRRO) CUNYAC favorite
8) Farmingdale_State (14-7, 12-4 SKY, 0.495 SOS, 0.584 ncSOS, 0-4 vRRO) Longshots
NR) Cairn (16-6, 9-0 CSAC, 0.386 SOS, 0.398 ncSOS, 0-0 vRRO) CSAC favorite
NR) Gwynedd_Mercy (15-7, 7-2 AEC, 0.488 SOS, 0.487 ncSOS, 0-2 vRRO) Pool B favorite

Mid-Atlantic region
1) Swarthmore (18-3, 11-3 CC, 0.549 SOS, 0.607 ncSOS, 3-1 vRRO) CC favorite
2) Christopher_Newport (18-3, 8-2 CAC, 0.542 SOS, 0.513 ncSOS, 4-3 vRRO) CAC favorite
3) Salisbury (16-5, 6-4 CAC, 0.568 SOS, 0.560 ncSOS, 4-4 vRRO) Bubble-out
4) Arcadia (18-3, 12-0 MACC, 0.527 SOS, 0.571 ncSOS, 1-2 vRRO) MACC favorite
5) York_(Pa.) (15-6, 8-2 CAC, 0.550 SOS, 0.519 ncSOS, 3-4 vRRO) Bubble-out
6) Mary_Washington (14-7, 6-4 CAC, 0.563 SOS, 0.527 ncSOS, 4-3 vRRO) Fringe contenders
7) Johns_Hopkins (14-7, 11-3 CC, 0.544 SOS, 0.643 ncSOS, 2-3 vRRO) Fringe contenders
8) Scranton (17-4, 6-4 LAND, 0.516 SOS, 0.503 ncSOS, 2-0 vRRO) Bubble-out
NR) Moravian (15-6, 8-2 LAND, 0.523 SOS, 0.523 ncSOS, 2-3 vRRO) LAND favorite

South region
1) Randolph-Macon (20-2, 12-1 ODAC, 0.541 SOS, 0.550 ncSOS, 3-2 vRRO) ODAC favorite
2) Centre (17-3, 10-1 SAA, 0.524 SOS, 0.549 ncSOS, 0-1 vRRO) SAA favorite
3) Emory (16-4, 7-2 UAA, 0.567 SOS, 0.547 ncSOS, 1-3 vRRO) UAA favorite
4) Guilford (16-5, 10-2 ODAC, 0.514 SOS, 0.507 ncSOS, 3-1 vRRO) Bubble-out
5) Mary_Hardin-Baylor (17-5, 8-5 ASC, 0.517 SOS, 0.509 ncSOS, 1-0 vRRO) Bubble-out
6) Lynchburg (17-5, 8-5 ODAC, 0.533 SOS, 0.452 ncSOS, 4-3 vRRO) Fringe contenders
7) Emory_and_Henry (15-6, 8-4 ODAC, 0.547 SOS, 0.530 ncSOS, 0-4 vRRO) Fringe contenders
8) Texas-Dallas (16-4, 10-3 ASC, 0.492 SOS, 0.470 ncSOS, 1-1 vRRO) ASC favorite
NR) Covenant (12-7, 13-0 USAC, 0.526 SOS, 0.604 ncSOS, 0-2 vRRO) USAC favorite
NR) Texas_Lutheran (14-5, 9-1 SCAC, 0.500 SOS, 0.562 ncSOS, 0-2 vRRO) SCAC favorite

Great Lakes region
1) Marietta (18-3, 12-2 OAC, 0.548 SOS, 0.582 ncSOS, 6-2 vRRO) OAC favorite
2) Wooster (18-3, 13-1 NCAC, 0.535 SOS, 0.544 ncSOS, 3-2 vRRO) NCAC favorite
3) La_Roche (19-2, 14-0 AMCC, 0.505 SOS, 0.552 ncSOS, 0-1 vRRO) AMCC favorite
4) Capital (17-4, 12-2 OAC, 0.528 SOS, 0.532 ncSOS, 5-1 vRRO) Strong contenders
5) Wabash (16-3, 12-2 NCAC, 0.521 SOS, 0.496 ncSOS, 2-2 vRRO) Bubble-out
6) Wittenberg (15-5, 10-4 NCAC, 0.517 SOS, 0.541 ncSOS, 2-3 vRRO) Bubble-out
7) Mount_Union (17-4, 11-3 OAC, 0.490 SOS, 0.412 ncSOS, 3-2 vRRO) Longshots
8) Wilmington (14-6, 10-4 OAC, 0.534 SOS, 0.503 ncSOS, 3-5 vRRO) Fringe contenders
9) Baldwin_Wallace (14-7, 8-6 OAC, 0.524 SOS, 0.486 ncSOS, 0-7 vRRO) Longshots
NR) Albion (15-5, 8-2 MIAA, 0.480 SOS, 0.513 ncSOS, 2-1 vRRO) MIAA favorite
NR) Hanover (14-5, 11-3 HCAC, 0.499 SOS, 0.507 ncSOS, 0-1 vRRO) HCAC favorite
NR) St._Vincent (16-3, 11-1 PAC, 0.456 SOS, 0.471 ncSOS, 0-1 vRRO) PAC favorite

Central region
1) Augustana (20-2, 12-1 CCIW, 0.547 SOS, 0.509 ncSOS, 4-2 vRRO) CCIW favorite
2) UW-Oshkosh (20-1, 10-0 WIAC, 0.530 SOS, 0.467 ncSOS, 4-1 vRRO) WIAC favorite
3) North_Central_(Ill.) (18-3, 10-2 CCIW, 0.517 SOS, 0.443 ncSOS, 2-1 vRRO) Bubble-out
4) Wheaton_(Ill.) (16-6, 9-4 CCIW, 0.557 SOS, 0.594 ncSOS, 1-3 vRRO) Bubble-out
5) UW-La_Crosse (15-6, 8-2 WIAC, 0.589 SOS, 0.538 ncSOS, 5-2 vRRO) Bubble-out
6) UW-Stevens_Point (14-6, 6-4 WIAC, 0.585 SOS, 0.563 ncSOS, 1-5 vRRO) Fringe contenders
7) UW-Whitewater (14-7, 3-7 WIAC, 0.576 SOS, 0.517 ncSOS, 2-5 vRRO) Fringe contenders
8) Chicago (13-7, 6-3 UAA, 0.558 SOS, 0.559 ncSOS, 3-0 vRRO) Fringe contenders
NR) Greenville (14-6, 11-2 SLIAC, 0.443 SOS, 0.490 ncSOS, 0-1 vRRO) SLIAC favorite
NR) MSOE (19-2, 14-2 NACC, 0.451 SOS, 0.361 ncSOS, 0-0 vRRO) NACC favorite
NR) St._Norbert (16-6, 14-1 MWC, 0.500 SOS, 0.605 ncSOS, 0-2 vRRO) MWC favorite

West region
1) Nebraska_Wesleyan (20-1, 11-1 ARC, 0.582 SOS, 0.567 ncSOS, 2-1 vRRO) ARC favorite
2) Whitman (20-1, 12-0 NWC, 0.563 SOS, 0.569 ncSOS, 3-1 vRRO) NWC favorite
3) St._Thomas (20-1, 16-0 MIAC, 0.518 SOS, 0.560 ncSOS, 2-0 vRRO) MIAC favorite
4) Loras (17-5, 9-4 ARC, 0.598 SOS, 0.576 ncSOS, 3-3 vRRO) Strong contenders
5) Pomona-Pitzer (17-1, 12-0 SCIAC, 0.489 SOS, 0.526 ncSOS, 1-0 vRRO) SCIAC favorite
6) St._John's (17-4, 13-3 MIAC, 0.528 SOS, 0.553 ncSOS, 1-2 vRRO) Bubble-out
7) Whitworth (17-4, 9-3 NWC, 0.528 SOS, 0.490 ncSOS, 2-3 vRRO) Bubble-out
8) Wartburg (12-6, 8-4 ARC, 0.583 SOS, 0.543 ncSOS, 1-3 vRRO) Fringe contenders
NR) Northwestern_(Minn.) (15-6, 11-1 UMAC, 0.454 SOS, 0.458 ncSOS, 0-0 vRRO) UMAC favorite

SaintPaulite

#7825
Quote from: fantastic50 on February 06, 2019, 08:51:51 PM
Maybe the most interesting thing from today's first set of NCAA rankings is La Roche (19-2, 14-0 AMCC, .505 SOS, .551 ncSOS) being ranked 3rd in the Great Lakes, ahead of OAC leader Capital (17-4, 12-2 OAC, .530 SOS, beat Marietta twice) and Wabash.  La Roche is a good team in my opinion, but hasn't beaten anyone except AMCC rival Penn State-Behrend (18-3, .467 SOS).

When I ran my numbers on this region, I got (in order) the top six that the NCAA ended up with (Marietta, Wooster, La Roche, Capital, Wabash, Wittenberg) but thought there's no way that the committee will put LRC 3rd without any quality wins.  Upon looking at head-to-head numbers, I ended up with Capital #1 and LRC #6, but it's as if the head-to-head didn't matter at all (yet).

I noticed that the regional rankings have a similarity to Massey, which I'm guessing uses a somewhat similar methodology to your numbers?

But Marietta just lost at Mount Union, so they could well be 4th now. I feel like the top few in this region were pretty tightly packed. And Mount Union could be above Wabash and Wittenberg.

West just looks better and better.

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

Quote from: SaintPaulite on February 06, 2019, 07:21:41 PM
Quote from: sac on February 06, 2019, 04:33:08 PM
Quote from: nescac1 on February 06, 2019, 03:18:42 PM
New England has the most schools of any region, right? I have no idea whether the region receives a disproportionate number of bids, but part of the reason there are so many bids from New England is that there are so many New England D3 leagues and programs.  And in any given year, typically 3-4 NESCAC (sometimes more, only rarely fewer) teams will be among the top teams in the region.  And New England (certainly since 2003) has represented itself well as a region once in the tournament, it's not like New England teams (as opposed to some other regions) are flaming out as soon as they face other quality teams (four national champs and four more second place finishes, plus a bunch more Final Four appearances, from the region in the past 15 years).  Honestly, to the extent New England has an advantage, it's that the other east coast leagues (who they play in the regionals, typically) other than NESCAC, ODAC and NEWMAC haven't been very strong in postseason play over the past decade or so ... NJAC in particular, which is still solid but used to be a true powerhouse, and some of the Mid-Atlantic programs, some of which used to be a bit stronger I believe.

I posted something about it a year on page 518 of this thread.  The Northeast has received  25% of the Pool C bids being something like 18% of D3.  Not wildly disproportionate, but a little disproportionate over an 11 year span for sure.

I didn't see that, but...

That's a LOT disproportionate! That's like a 39% point overindex (if you got 18% as 18% of the schools, that would be 100).

But they come from one conference, mainly. The NESCAC. The rest of the region doesn't exactly get extra bids. The NEWMAC is about the only other one that - one year - seemed to get an extra bid. Remove the NESCAC altogether and the Northeast is just like any other region. Actually, it's probably in a worst position because numbers in the Northeast outside of the NESCAC are average at best.

The NESCAC skews things and thus throws numbers off.

Where as in the Central, a lot of their extra selections come thanks to the WIAC and CCIW.

The Northeast has two "power" conferences and one tends to get extra selections.
Host of Hoopsville. USBWA Executive Board member. Broadcast Director for D3sports.com. Broadcaster for NCAA.com & several colleges. PA Announcer for Gophers & Brigade. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.

fantastic50

Quote from: SaintPaulite on February 06, 2019, 09:32:56 PM
Quote from: fantastic50 on February 06, 2019, 08:51:51 PM
Maybe the most interesting thing from today's first set of NCAA rankings is La Roche (19-2, 14-0 AMCC, .505 SOS, .551 ncSOS) being ranked 3rd in the Great Lakes, ahead of OAC leader Capital (17-4, 12-2 OAC, .530 SOS, beat Marietta twice) and Wabash.  La Roche is a good team in my opinion, but hasn't beaten anyone except AMCC rival Penn State-Behrend (18-3, .467 SOS).

When I ran my numbers on this region, I got (in order) the top six that the NCAA ended up with (Marietta, Wooster, La Roche, Capital, Wabash, Wittenberg) but thought there's no way that the committee will put LRC 3rd without any quality wins.  Upon looking at head-to-head numbers, I ended up with Capital #1 and LRC #6, but it's as if the head-to-head didn't matter at all (yet).

I noticed that the regional rankings have a similarity to Massey, which I'm guessing uses a somewhat similar methodology to your numbers?

But Marietta just lost at Mount Union, so they could well be 4th now. I feel like the top few in this region were pretty tightly packed. And Mount Union could be above Wabash and Wittenberg.

West just looks better and better.

Yes, the Massey ratings and my power rankings have some similarity in methodology, and both are designed to highlight the best teams (in future games), not the most accomplished resumes.  However, my mock regional rankings are an attempt to forecast the committee picks, based on their criteria.

Mount could be closing on Witt after last night, but Wabash should still be ahead of Mount, based on SOS.  Mount could get to the bubble by winning out except for the OAC final.  The sub-.500 SOS won't help UMU, and their .412 non-conf. SOS is awful.

If Witt won out except the NCAC final, they would almost certainly get in, as they still yet play Wooster & Wabash again, then potentially both a 3rd time in the NCAC tourney.

sac

I come up with Northeast Region without the NESCAC as 15% of D3, they've received 13.8% of Pool C's.  Slightly under, but none of the remaining are a "power conference", so probably normal or expected distribution.




Dave 'd-mac' McHugh



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Facebook: www.facebook.com/Hoopsville
Email: hoopsville@d3hoops.com
YouTube: www.youtube.com/user/d3hoopsville
Host of Hoopsville. USBWA Executive Board member. Broadcast Director for D3sports.com. Broadcaster for NCAA.com & several colleges. PA Announcer for Gophers & Brigade. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.