Pool C

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

The .700 number has always been conveyed to me by the committee as this: if you are below it, you are in trouble. The further you are below it, the more trouble you are in. It isn't to say you won't get in as we know some have with strong numbers, but the only one that was well off that mark was UW-Oshkosh a few years ago. I agree, below .667 is probably dead man's zone - UWO was there and saved, but again ... outlier.

[SaintPaulite]

SaintPaulite

There's a lot of info in there nicely done! I'm a Wheaton guy, and I noticed that you had Wheaton beating and losing to IWU, but Wheaton swept the regular season series with them.

There definitely is. it didn't take too long, but accuracy can be one of the costs of that, so thanks for the correction and I have edited the document.

[fantastic50]

SaintPaulite

There's a lot of info in there nicely done! I'm a Wheaton guy, and I noticed that you had Wheaton beating and losing to IWU, but Wheaton swept the regular season series with them.

There definitely is. it didn't take too long, but accuracy can be one of the costs of that, so thanks for the correction and I have edited the document.

If this is helpful, I have similar info in my "regional details" pages.  Here's the Great Lakes page, for example.
http://www.fantastic50.net/d3h_reg_great-lakes.html

[SaintPaulite]

SaintPaulite

There's a lot of info in there nicely done! I'm a Wheaton guy, and I noticed that you had Wheaton beating and losing to IWU, but Wheaton swept the regular season series with them.

There definitely is. it didn't take too long, but accuracy can be one of the costs of that, so thanks for the correction and I have edited the document.

If this is helpful, I have similar info in my "regional details" pages.  Here's the Great Lakes page, for example.
http://www.fantastic50.net/d3h_reg_great-lakes.html

Also good. Part of my thought was to take out all of the other numbers and just look at the results vRRO, not the record or the SOS that could come to a number by 1000 different paths.

I think the other games are kind of nonfactors unless you lose them (which is the only reason overall record is on there).

[KnightSlappy]

One note: "my" rankings are really meant to be more of a simple presentation of the data. It's not meant to be a real projection of what I think committees will do, but I chose rank by RPI because it happens to get us close without me having to make any active decisions or come up with a fancy system like Drew's.

RPI always likes the teams with lower WP and elite SOS numbers more than the actual committees do.

[fantastic50]

For what it's worth, here are my guesses at today's regional rankings.  I have made a few adjustments for head-to-head, against my better judgment.  Resumes are through Sunday's games.

Northeast region
1) MIT (20-3, 10-2 NEWMAC, 0.870 WP, 0.555 SOS, 0.546 ncSOS, 2-0 vRRO)
2) Amherst (20-3, 7-2 NESCAC, 0.870 WP, 0.545 SOS, 0.466 ncSOS, 5-1 vRRO)
3) Williams (19-5, 6-4 NESCAC, 0.792 WP, 0.592 SOS, 0.541 ncSOS, 4-4 vRRO)
4) Nichols (21-2, 13-1 CCC, 0.913 WP, 0.510 SOS, 0.559 ncSOS, 2-2 vRRO)
5) Hamilton (20-3, 6-3 NESCAC, 0.870 WP, 0.546 SOS, 0.494 ncSOS, 2-2 vRRO)
6) Middlebury (17-6, 7-3 NESCAC, 0.739 WP, 0.603 SOS, 0.581 ncSOS, 2-5 vRRO)
7) Eastern_Connecticut (18-5, 12-2 LEC, 0.783 WP, 0.551 SOS, 0.570 ncSOS, 2-2 vRRO)
8) Gordon (21-2, 13-1 CCC, 0.913 WP, 0.487 SOS, 0.518 ncSOS, 1-1 vRRO)
9) Keene_State (17-7, 12-3 LEC, 0.708 WP, 0.563 SOS, 0.637 ncSOS, 1-4 vRRO)
10) Wesleyan (16-8, 6-4 NESCAC, 0.667 WP, 0.610 SOS, 0.581 ncSOS, 5-5 vRRO)
11) Colby (17-7, 5-5 NESCAC, 0.708 WP, 0.557 SOS, 0.498 ncSOS, 3-3 vRRO)
----------
Mass-Dartmouth (17-6, 11-3 LEC, 0.739 WP, 0.531 SOS, 0.513 ncSOS, 2-3 vRRO)
Endicott (16-7, 9-5 CCC, 0.696 WP, 0.528 SOS, 0.593 ncSOS, 1-4 vRRO)
WPI (17-6, 8-4 NEWMAC, 0.739 WP, 0.544 SOS, 0.524 ncSOS, 0-1 vRRO)

East region
1) Rochester (18-4, 8-3 UAA, 0.818 WP, 0.538 SOS, 0.497 ncSOS, 6-1 vRRO)
2) Plattsburgh_State (19-4, 13-3 SUNYAC, 0.826 WP, 0.528 SOS, 0.539 ncSOS, 5-4 vRRO)
3) Oswego_State (18-4, 13-2 SUNYAC, 0.818 WP, 0.529 SOS, 0.526 ncSOS, 5-3 vRRO)
4) Skidmore (15-6, 13-3 LL, 0.714 WP, 0.525 SOS, 0.599 ncSOS, 2-3 vRRO)
5) St._Lawrence (16-7, 13-3 LL, 0.696 WP, 0.526 SOS, 0.605 ncSOS, 2-3 vRRO)
6) Cortland (16-5, 10-5 SUNYAC, 0.762 WP, 0.508 SOS, 0.463 ncSOS, 2-3 vRRO)
7) Nazareth (17-5, 11-2 E8, 0.773 WP, 0.518 SOS, 0.533 ncSOS, 0-2 vRRO)
8) St._John_Fisher (15-7, 10-3 E8, 0.682 WP, 0.517 SOS, 0.501 ncSOS, 2-3 vRRO)
----------
Morrisville_State (18-4, 13-1 NEAC, 0.818 WP, 0.467 SOS, 0.503 ncSOS, 0-2 vRRO)
Alfred (15-4, 10-2 E8, 0.789 WP, 0.465 SOS, 0.453 ncSOS, 0-2 vRRO)
Hobart (14-9, 11-5 LL, 0.609 WP, 0.540 SOS, 0.595 ncSOS, 1-3 vRRO)

Atlantic region
1) Rowan (17-6, 12-5 NJAC, 0.739 WP, 0.557 SOS, 0.579 ncSOS, 6-2 vRRO)
2) New_Jersey_City (19-5, 14-3 NJAC, 0.792 WP, 0.538 SOS, 0.555 ncSOS, 4-3 vRRO)
3) Ramapo (16-8, 10-7 NJAC, 0.667 WP, 0.554 SOS, 0.610 ncSOS, 5-3 vRRO)
4) DeSales (17-5, 10-2 MACF, 0.773 WP, 0.497 SOS, 0.517 ncSOS, 0-2 vRRO)
5) Yeshiva (17-5, 15-2 SKY, 0.773 WP, 0.471 SOS, 0.527 ncSOS, 1-2 vRRO)
6) William_Paterson (15-9, 10-7 NJAC, 0.625 WP, 0.547 SOS, 0.565 ncSOS, 5-6 vRRO)
7) Baruch (18-5, 12-2 CUNYAC, 0.783 WP, 0.450 SOS, 0.465 ncSOS, 1-0 vRRO)
8) Montclair_State (15-9, 10-7 NJAC, 0.625 WP, 0.552 SOS, 0.551 ncSOS, 2-6 vRRO)
----------
Farmingdale_State (16-7, 14-4 SKY, 0.696 WP, 0.487 SOS, 0.578 ncSOS, 0-4 vRRO)
Wilkes (14-7, 8-4 MACF, 0.667 WP, 0.486 SOS, 0.461 ncSOS, 1-2 vRRO)
Staten_Island (16-8, 12-3 CUNYAC, 0.667 WP, 0.466 SOS, 0.527 ncSOS, 1-2 vRRO)

Mid-Atlantic region
1) Swarthmore (20-3, 13-3 CC, 0.870 WP, 0.545 SOS, 0.597 ncSOS, 4-1 vRRO)
2) Christopher_Newport (20-3, 10-2 CAC, 0.870 WP, 0.534 SOS, 0.514 ncSOS, 4-3 vRRO)
3) Salisbury (17-6, 7-5 CAC, 0.739 WP, 0.567 SOS, 0.567 ncSOS, 4-5 vRRO)
4) Arcadia (20-3, 14-0 MACC, 0.870 WP, 0.516 SOS, 0.568 ncSOS, 1-2 vRRO)
5) York_(Pa.) (17-6, 10-2 CAC, 0.739 WP, 0.549 SOS, 0.520 ncSOS, 4-4 vRRO)
6) Mary_Washington (16-7, 8-4 CAC, 0.696 WP, 0.558 SOS, 0.529 ncSOS, 4-3 vRRO)
7) Scranton (19-4, 8-4 LAND, 0.826 WP, 0.514 SOS, 0.497 ncSOS, 2-0 vRRO)
8) Johns_Hopkins (15-8, 12-4 CC, 0.652 WP, 0.557 SOS, 0.643 ncSOS, 2-4 vRRO)
----------
Moravian (16-7, 9-3 LAND, 0.696 WP, 0.530 SOS, 0.529 ncSOS, 2-4 vRRO)
Drew (18-5, 10-2 LAND, 0.783 WP, 0.515 SOS, 0.502 ncSOS, 0-2 vRRO)
Susquehanna (15-8, 8-4 LAND, 0.652 WP, 0.516 SOS, 0.484 ncSOS, 2-1 vRRO)

South region
1) Randolph-Macon (22-2, 14-1 ODAC, 0.917 WP, 0.529 SOS, 0.544 ncSOS, 3-2 vRRO)
2) Emory (17-5, 8-3 UAA, 0.773 WP, 0.571 SOS, 0.546 ncSOS, 1-4 vRRO)
3) Centre (19-3, 12-1 SAA, 0.864 WP, 0.528 SOS, 0.548 ncSOS, 0-1 vRRO)
4) Guilford (17-6, 11-3 ODAC, 0.739 WP, 0.519 SOS, 0.504 ncSOS, 3-1 vRRO)
5) Lynchburg (19-5, 10-5 ODAC, 0.792 WP, 0.513 SOS, 0.452 ncSOS, 4-3 vRRO)
6) Washington_and_Lee (16-7, 9-5 ODAC, 0.696 WP, 0.535 SOS, 0.537 ncSOS, 4-4 vRRO)
7) Mary_Hardin-Baylor (18-5, 9-5 ASC, 0.783 WP, 0.520 SOS, 0.514 ncSOS, 1-0 vRRO)
8) Texas-Dallas (18-4, 11-3 ASC, 0.818 WP, 0.485 SOS, 0.477 ncSOS, 1-1 vRRO)
----------
LeTourneau (16-7, 10-4 ASC, 0.696 WP, 0.526 SOS, 0.569 ncSOS, 1-3 vRRO)
Louisiana_College (17-6, 10-5 ASC, 0.739 WP, 0.508 SOS, 0.477 ncSOS, 2-1 vRRO)
Berry (14-6, 10-3 SAA, 0.700 WP, 0.520 SOS, 0.508 ncSOS, 1-3 vRRO)

Great Lakes region
1) Marietta (18-5, 12-4 OAC, 0.783 WP, 0.561 SOS, 0.580 ncSOS, 6-4 vRRO)
2) Capital (19-4, 14-2 OAC, 0.826 WP, 0.524 SOS, 0.535 ncSOS, 6-1 vRRO)
3) Wooster (19-4, 14-2 NCAC, 0.826 WP, 0.530 SOS, 0.544 ncSOS, 3-3 vRRO)
4) La_Roche (21-2, 16-0 AMCC, 0.913 WP, 0.505 SOS, 0.548 ncSOS, 0-1 vRRO)
5) Wittenberg (17-5, 12-4 NCAC, 0.773 WP, 0.525 SOS, 0.526 ncSOS, 3-3 vRRO)
6) Wabash (17-4, 13-3 NCAC, 0.810 WP, 0.512 SOS, 0.498 ncSOS, 2-2 vRRO)
7) Mount_Union (19-4, 13-3 OAC, 0.826 WP, 0.493 SOS, 0.414 ncSOS, 4-2 vRRO)
8) Wilmington (16-6, 12-4 OAC, 0.727 WP, 0.529 SOS, 0.497 ncSOS, 4-5 vRRO)
9) Hanover (16-5, 13-3 HCAC, 0.762 WP, 0.496 SOS, 0.507 ncSOS, 0-1 vRRO)
----------
Transylvania (15-8, 12-4 HCAC, 0.652 WP, 0.526 SOS, 0.654 ncSOS, 1-4 vRRO)
Albion (16-6, 9-3 MIAA, 0.727 WP, 0.475 SOS, 0.498 ncSOS, 2-1 vRRO)
Penn_State-Behrend (20-3, 13-3 AMCC, 0.870 WP, 0.468 SOS, 0.394 ncSOS, 0-2 vRRO)

Central region
1) Augustana (22-2, 14-1 CCIW, 0.917 WP, 0.549 SOS, 0.512 ncSOS, 5-2 vRRO)
2) UW-Oshkosh (22-1, 12-0 WIAC, 0.957 WP, 0.540 SOS, 0.471 ncSOS, 5-1 vRRO)
3) Wheaton_(Ill.) (17-7, 10-5 CCIW, 0.708 WP, 0.575 SOS, 0.591 ncSOS, 2-4 vRRO)
4) UW-Stevens_Point (15-7, 7-5 WIAC, 0.682 WP, 0.599 SOS, 0.566 ncSOS, 2-6 vRRO)
5) North_Central_(Ill.) (18-5, 10-4 CCIW, 0.783 WP, 0.526 SOS, 0.447 ncSOS, 2-2 vRRO)
6) UW-La_Crosse (15-8, 8-4 WIAC, 0.652 WP, 0.582 SOS, 0.537 ncSOS, 5-2 vRRO)
7) Illinois_Wesleyan (15-8, 8-6 CCIW, 0.652 WP, 0.579 SOS, 0.570 ncSOS, 2-7 vRRO)
8) Chicago (14-8, 7-4 UAA, 0.636 WP, 0.577 SOS, 0.561 ncSOS, 4-1 vRRO)
----------
St._Norbert (17-6, 15-1 MWC, 0.739 WP, 0.507 SOS, 0.610 ncSOS, 0-2 vRRO)
UW-Whitewater (15-8, 4-8 WIAC, 0.652 WP, 0.567 SOS, 0.520 ncSOS, 2-6 vRRO)
Washington_U. (14-8, 7-4 UAA, 0.636 WP, 0.572 SOS, 0.548 ncSOS, 2-5 vRRO)

West region
1) Nebraska_Wesleyan (22-1, 13-1 ARC, 0.957 WP, 0.576 SOS, 0.553 ncSOS, 3-1 vRRO)
2) Whitman (22-1, 14-0 NWC, 0.957 WP, 0.565 SOS, 0.569 ncSOS, 3-1 vRRO)
3) Loras (18-5, 10-4 ARC, 0.783 WP, 0.594 SOS, 0.575 ncSOS, 3-3 vRRO)
4) St._Thomas (21-2, 17-1 MIAC, 0.913 WP, 0.521 SOS, 0.559 ncSOS, 2-0 vRRO)
5) Pomona-Pitzer (18-1, 13-0 SCIAC, 0.947 WP, 0.485 SOS, 0.531 ncSOS, 1-0 vRRO)
6) Whitworth (19-4, 11-3 NWC, 0.826 WP, 0.531 SOS, 0.486 ncSOS, 2-3 vRRO)
7) St._John's (19-4, 15-3 MIAC, 0.826 WP, 0.520 SOS, 0.539 ncSOS, 1-2 vRRO)
8) Augsburg (16-6, 13-5 MIAC, 0.727 WP, 0.533 SOS, 0.538 ncSOS, 1-4 vRRO)
----------
Bethel (16-7, 13-5 MIAC, 0.696 WP, 0.525 SOS, 0.534 ncSOS, 2-4 vRRO)
Wartburg (13-7, 9-5 ARC, 0.650 WP, 0.576 SOS, 0.536 ncSOS, 1-4 vRRO)
Claremont-Mudd-Scripps (12-6, 9-3 SCIAC, 0.667 WP, 0.513 SOS, 0.532 ncSOS, 0-4 vRRO)

[Gregory Sager]

Once again the numbers make it absolutely plain that the four top teams in the country are the two atop the Central Region rankings (Augustana and UW-Oshkosh) and the two atop the West Region rankings (Nebraska Wesleyan and Whitman). Of the four other teams in the country that have a WP over .900 (Nichols, Randolph-Macon, La Roche, and Pomona-Pitzer), none of them are anywhere near the vicinity of a .540 SOS, which all four of the top teams in the Central and West have. The one team that's really within shouting distance of the Big Four is Randy-Mac (.529 SOS), and the Yellow Jackets trail the Big Four in vRRO, at least as a counting stat:

UW-Oshkosh	5-1
Augustana	5-2
Nebraska Wesleyan	3-1
Whitman	3-1
Randolph-Macon	3-2

[fantastic50]

If you look at my top ten (best teams, not NCAA resumes), there is a big gap in ratings after those first four.

1) Whitman (22-1, 14-0 NWC, SOS 0.565, 3-1 vRRO) 120.9
2) UW-Oshkosh (22-1, 12-0 WIAC, SOS 0.540, 5-1 vRRO) 120.6
3) Nebraska_Wesleyan (22-1, 13-1 ARC, SOS 0.576, 3-1 vRRO) 120.5
4) Augustana (22-2, 14-1 CCIW, SOS 0.549, 5-2 vRRO) 119.5
5) Randolph-Macon (22-2, 14-1 ODAC, SOS 0.529, 3-2 vRRO) 117.1
6) St._Thomas (21-2, 17-1 MIAC, SOS 0.521, 2-0 vRRO) 117.1
7) St._John's (19-4, 15-3 MIAC, SOS 0.520, 1-2 vRRO) 116.0
8) Amherst (20-3, 7-2 NESCAC, SOS 0.545, 5-1 vRRO) 115.7
9) Swarthmore (20-3, 13-3 CC, SOS 0.545, 4-1 vRRO) 114.4
10) UW-Stevens_Point (15-7, 7-5 WIAC, SOS 0.599, 2-6 vRRO) 114.2

[SaintPaulite]

Once again the numbers make it absolutely plain that the four top teams in the country are the two atop the Central Region rankings (Augustana and UW-Oshkosh) and the two atop the West Region rankings (Nebraska Wesleyan and Whitman). Of the four other teams in the country that have a WP over .900 (Nichols, Randolph-Macon, La Roche, and Pomona-Pitzer), none of them are anywhere near the vicinity of a .540 SOS, which all four of the top teams in the Central and West have. The one team that's really within shouting distance of the Big Four is Randy-Mac (.529 SOS), and the Yellow Jackets trail the Big Four in vRRO, at least as a counting stat:

UW-Oshkosh	5-1
Augustana	5-2
Nebraska Wesleyan	3-1
Whitman	3-1
Randolph-Macon	3-2

So Whitman and Randy Mac bracketed together, and the other 3 getting their own brackets (even if it's possible they might not host bc of who makes it through)? Is that possible?

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Once again the numbers make it absolutely plain that the four top teams in the country are the two atop the Central Region rankings (Augustana and UW-Oshkosh) and the two atop the West Region rankings (Nebraska Wesleyan and Whitman). Of the four other teams in the country that have a WP over .900 (Nichols, Randolph-Macon, La Roche, and Pomona-Pitzer), none of them are anywhere near the vicinity of a .540 SOS, which all four of the top teams in the Central and West have. The one team that's really within shouting distance of the Big Four is Randy-Mac (.529 SOS), and the Yellow Jackets trail the Big Four in vRRO, at least as a counting stat:

UW-Oshkosh	5-1
Augustana	5-2
Nebraska Wesleyan	3-1
Whitman	3-1
Randolph-Macon	3-2

So Whitman and Randy Mac bracketed together, and the other 3 getting their own brackets (even if it's possible they might not host bc of who makes it through)? Is that possible?

It is certainly possible... maybe being debated... but who knows what the money will dictate either. But Whitman was paired with Marietta for the second weekend a few years ago.

[lmitzel]

So the NCAA didn't update the date range of games, but based on the records and the fact that things shifted... Week 2 regional rankings are out.

[Gregory Sager]

Once again the numbers make it absolutely plain that the four top teams in the country are the two atop the Central Region rankings (Augustana and UW-Oshkosh) and the two atop the West Region rankings (Nebraska Wesleyan and Whitman). Of the four other teams in the country that have a WP over .900 (Nichols, Randolph-Macon, La Roche, and Pomona-Pitzer), none of them are anywhere near the vicinity of a .540 SOS, which all four of the top teams in the Central and West have. The one team that's really within shouting distance of the Big Four is Randy-Mac (.529 SOS), and the Yellow Jackets trail the Big Four in vRRO, at least as a counting stat:

UW-Oshkosh	5-1
Augustana	5-2
Nebraska Wesleyan	3-1
Whitman	3-1
Randolph-Macon	3-2

So Whitman and Randy Mac bracketed together, and the other 3 getting their own brackets (even if it's possible they might not host bc of who makes it through)? Is that possible?

I'm not sure. You'd have to move Augustana as far east as possible -- Augie's campus address is 495 miles from Wooster's on Google Maps, so it comes down to the software that the NCAA uses, and Columbus (Capital) appears to be about 485 miles away from Rock Island if I-74 and I-70 are used -- with that Great Lakes pod host then oriented towards the northeastern corner of the bracket in a sectional with, say, MIT, Amherst, and Rochester as the other pod hosts. It's much, much easier to do that with Wooster than with Capital, because you can bring any team listed in this week's East Region ranking into Wooster except for Skidmore, St. Lawrence, and Plattsburgh State. But, again, it's all contingent upon Augie being within 500-mile range of Wooster.

It might actually be more feasible to fly NebWes or UW-Oshkosh east than Whitman, because NWU isn't much less of an island school than is Whitman. You can construct a fly-in pod around Whitman, even if you have to send the Blues to Texas in order to do so. But NWU is a headache, because the only schools likely or semi-likely to be in the D3 tourney that can get to Lincoln without a flight are Augustana (which, of course, isn't going to be put in the same pod as NebWes), Loras (which isn't likely to share a pod with its fellow ARC team, either), the UMAC rep, the SLIAC rep, the MIAC team(s), UW-LaCrosse, North Central, and maybe Wheaton (which is 499 miles from Lincoln, according to Google Maps). It can't share a pod with either of the likely teams to come out of the NACC, since they're both from greater Milwaukee, which is out of range of Lincoln. There's a tremendous amount of overlap there with the teams from which the Oshkosh pod would be culled, and the number of schools that can reach UWO is pretty limited, too. And if you go with what you have available within 500 miles of Lincoln when constructing the bracket, you might find yourself stuck with sending both the UMAC rep and the SLIAC rep to the NebWes pod -- and that would skew the competitive balance across the entire bracket pretty greatly.

If NebWes stays #1 West and UWO stays #2 Central, and you can construct a coherent and competitive pod in Lincoln (with, let's say, St. John's, North Central, the SLIAC champ, and host NWU), you could see UWO fly eastward in order to reward NWU for having the #1 spot in its region.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

The second week Regional Rankings have been released: https://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2019/02/men-regional-rankings-second

[WUPHF]

The NCAA uses this: https://web1.ncaa.org/TES/exec/miles

Wooster and Augustana are exactly 500 miles from each other.

[Gregory Sager]

Funny, I got 501 from that software. Did a geological fault just open up somewhere in the midwest?

Either way, it answers the question regarding sending Augie to Wooster. It's a no-go. That means sending Augie to Capital, which reduces the committee's options somewhat, because although you can send Cortland State to Wooster, you can't send the Red Dragons to Capital. Surprisingly, though, Oswego State is still in play for a Capital pod -- and all of the Rochester-area schools are well within range, too.